Wednesday, April 25, 2018

Arizona had a special election

This was a race that Tiperneni once held a polling lead in (Emerson poll April 16). The district certainly leans Republican (plus seventeen).  But this was an open seat race where the Republican incumbent was involved in a scandal serious enough to warrant his resignation.

  • Lesko (R) - 53%
  • Tiperneni (D) - 47%

One could argue that this is another bad sign for Republicans. Many will want to look at this race and simply transpose the results to reflect what they believe will happen in the 2018 midterms. But with the way the gerrymandering works in the House, and the inherent incumbent advantages, an open seat in a purple state like Arizona is the sort of seat that Democrats may have to start winning to take back the House. 

31 comments:

Anonymous said...

No blue wall 2016, now no blue wave 2018.

wphamilton said...

I guess for all the districts that have a 25% partisan advantage for Republicans, they don't have to worry over-much about those turning "blue".

So far. Trump has still got time to screw up some more and alienate more Republican voters so that may yet change.

Anonymous said...

"so that may yet change."Jill stien

wphamilton said...

I ran across a very interesting American Sociological Review paper which examines why a demagogue, known by his own constituents to be a liar, is accepted by them as authentic. Take it with a grain of salt, as these are apparently students and not especially qualified in sociology, but I thought they raised an interesting point

"In short, if that constituency feels its interests are not being served by a political establishment that purports to represent it fairly, a lying demagogue can appear as a distinctively authentic champion of its interests. As first noted by Lipset (1959; cf. Judis 2016), such a “crisis of legitimacy” can emerge under at least two conditions: (1) when one or more social groups are experiencing what we call a “representation crisis” because the political establishment does not appear to govern on its behalf; and (2) when an incumbent group is experiencing a “power-devaluation crisis” because the political establishment is favoring new social groups over established groups"

Now I admit that they're probably just using hind-sight to fit a theory to their preconceptions, but even so it does reflect my observations from even the primaries. Clinton's infamous "cling to guns and bibles" comes to mind, and Clinton and her core were pretty good at alienating every group that wasn't among her solid supporters. The DNC compounded it by foisting Clinton against the general wishes of the democratic constituency. So there was plenty of favoring new social groups over established groups, even before getting into Trump's constituency.

The "representation crisis" (I really hate their cutesy nomenclature) of conservative, religious whites is so obvious that I don't really need to get into it (do I?) and those were really Trump's foundation. Underestimated even, I'd say, in those close win states that put Trump over the top.

I'd been writing it off as pure partisanship, but there is still the question of how mere partisanship can go that far, providing acceptance of what would normally be immediate disqualifiers, among any group. Not just acceptance, but outright denial. Given disaffection and disenfranchisement (better nomenclature) among certain groups, they cling not to "bibles and guns" but to the guy who attacks the system that has worked against their interests, and has forgotten them.

Anonymous said...

Jill Hillary👓👚👢

Anonymous said...

The 5 liberal stooges of CHT are SS sooooooo concerned about the security of the US Elections and every vote . Yet , are against voter ID.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous wphamilton said...

I ran across a very interesting American Sociological Review paper which examines why a demagogue, known by his own constituents to be a liar, is accepted by them as authentic.



does it describe how those same constituents are coping now that obama is out of office? i would assume not well since such a sizeable portion of them seem to comprise this "resistance" thingy we keep hearing about.



commie said...

Yet , are against voter ID.

Speak for yourself, asshole.....The current laws are more than sufficient to ensure voters are who they claim to be..The only fraud is you, trump and every R who wants to limit voter access....Go chop down a tree....it is what R's want you to do....LOL

Anonymous said...

Mr. Opie, air conditioning season is right around the corner, but ,surely you don't use A/C, being you're so green.

Obama 1.65 Trillion added to the US Deficit on average, every year. Boom.

Anonymous said...

limit voter access" Klienminded

Exactly how?

Anonymous said...

Rudy Giuliani gives Mueller a way out of the Hillary Funded mess.

C.H. Truth said...

The clinging to Guns and Religion was an Obama quote, not Hillary. Goes to show that it's been going on for a while and it's all sort of indistinguishable.

But certainly there is no doubt that the Democratic Party becoming a Party of almost all non-whites (or whites who are willing to apologize for their privilege).

The problem (like everything else) is the extremes of the pendulum swing. Some of it is tangible and real. Many working class whites are feeling a real pinch from outsourcing, immigration, etc.

But some of it is just optics. Suddenly every television show, every movie, every thing basically must include all subsets of minorities and alternate lifestyles, even if it doesn't accurately equate with real life.

As much as I enjoyed the Jesus Christ Superstar live television show, it sort of felt like something I was going to see on the BET. Jesus, Judas, Caiaphas, most of the disciples all black. Annas was Asian. It was almost as if Alice Cooper and Sara Bareilles were "token whites". The casting seemed a bit "forced" by political correctness. Likewise, anyone wonder why the long anticipated Steven King Gunslinger movie did so poorly? Nobody who read the books accepted the concept of Idris Elba as Roland. Again, the decision to cast a black actor seemed "forced". While I think Elba is a great actor and I have loved him in most everything else he has done, he wasn't Roland (sorry if that offends).

The concept of watching late night television (I used to watch Carson, Letterman, Leno) is unbearable if you are a conservative. I cannot watch network news (or most news for that matter). You tune into CNN on election night and there are 8 liberals and one token conservative.

Those are all just superficial things... I get it. But it is how many people feel. Contrary to the belief of liberals, white Trump voters don't want to go back to owning slaves, or making minorities sit in the back of the bus. But they also don't want to feel like their job to apologize and take the back seat at every turn because they are white.

Conservatives don't want every news show to be FOX news. But they would like more than 1 out of 9 to be conservative on a CNN political panel.

Yeah, is there backlash against the "tide" of Political correctness in everything we do? Of course. It's why we have a President Trump.

Anonymous said...

David Hogg scores a Yuge Win!!!!

by AWR HAWKINS
25 Apr 2018
1,655
The NRA broke a 15-year fundraising record by taking in nearly $2.5 million for its Political Victory Fund in the month of March alone.
From March 1 through March 31 the fund raised $2.4 million, an increase of roughly $1.5 million over the amount the fund took in during the same time last year.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

But certainly there is no doubt that the Republican Party becoming a Party of almost all elderly whites,mostly high school educated males, (or whites who are willing to admit that white privilege, anti Semites and prejudiced about non whites every kind is legitimate ). is going to go down in history as the casualty of Tumpism.

The congressional district went for Trump by double digits in 2016.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Scott, your self proclaimed ignorance has validated my comments that you are no longer credible. ". I cannot watch network news (or most news for that matter). " in other words, you look at Breitbart even Info wars, to get your views of current events, whether you like the news or not. Your ignorance is apparent daily, when you get round to proclaim that the entire justice system was corrupted by the Kenyan and their non white allies and filled the FBI with liberals as well as the CIA, and defense establishment as well .

Loretta said...

"Scott, your self proclaimed ignorance has validated my comments that you are no longer credible."

I'm sure CH is crushed.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

I cannot watch network news (or most news for that matter).

C.H. Truth
I am a fiscal conservative and a social moderate... who has been blogging about politics and elections since 2004.

How can ANYONE claim to be credible on politics if he or she does not even bother to watch the news.

Loretta said...

"How can ANYONE claim to be credible on politics if he or she does not even bother to watch the news."

Plenty of places to get the news.

Not everyone is like you...

...not everyone needs a talking head to tell them how and what to think.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Opiods from the Candy Man.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2018/04/25/the-list-of-allegations-against-ronny-jackson-annotated/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.8f86dba5690b




Multiple individuals cited the nickname “Candyman” used by WH staff because he would provide whatever prescriptions they sought without paperwork.
Physicians, physician assistants, and nurses have described a pattern of handing out Ambien (to sleep) and Provigil (to wake up) without triaging patient history (no intakes, no questionnaires) on Air Force One. These are controlled substances that require tracking.
Jackson would have been the prescriber though he also directed nurses to dispense them.
The White House Medical Unit (WHMU) had questionable record keeping for pharmaceuticals so it is tough to account for all controlled substances with perfect accuracy. Only after-the-fact would Jackson account for pills or provide paper records to account for shortages. For example, missing Percocet (used for pain) tabs once threw WHMU into a panic. It turned out Jackson had provided a large supply to a White House Military Office (WHMO) staffer. Jackson also had private stocks of controlled substances.


Trump has nominated an alky to run the Veterans Affairs department.

At a Secret Service going away party, Jackson got drunk and wrecked a government vehicle.

Multiple incidents of drunkenness on duty were described to Committee staff. Several of these incidents involve overseas travel. These incidents are not described here to protect the identities of those involved.

When “on duty” or “holding the medical bag”, Jackson was required to be on call at a moment’s notice in the event of a health issue with the President. On several occasions, Jackson would reach for “the bag” while intoxicated to show he was in charge. On at least one occasion, Dr. Jackson could not be reached when needed because he was passed out drunk in his hotel room.


Because Scott doesn't watch the news he didn't know about this. But even if he did, it would be "fake news".

Loretta said...

"Opiods from the Candy Man."

Right up your alley.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

I don't take them except before a gym session.

You would love to have me hold you down with my big arms and give you what you want. LOL

Twit

Loretta said...

Puke.

Creeper.

Anonymous said...

"Opiods from the Candy Man." Obama's Dr.

Anonymous said...

During the Lost years.

"Multiple incidents of drunkenness on duty were described to Committee staff. Several of these incidents involve overseas travel. These incidents are not described here to protect the identities of those involved.".

Anonymous said...

Stunning reversals.

Harry Ried now begs Democrats, drop the :impeachment thingy.

Anonymous said...



How can ANYONE claim to be credible on politics if he or she does not even bother to watch the news.

you fucking clod. this isn't the 70's when we had to rely on huntley and brinkley for the fucking news.

the only one around here with a credibility problem regarding political pontifications is you, alky. by a fucking landslide.

Anonymous said...




what was it that the alky was whining about when it came to fake news and the 1st amendment?


Correction: April 23, 2018

An earlier version of this article erroneously included a reference to Palestinian actions as an example of the sort of far-right conspiracy stories that have plagued Facebook. In fact, Palestinian officials have acknowledged providing payments to the families of Palestinians killed while carrying out attacks on Israelis or convicted of terrorist acts and imprisoned in Israel; that is not a conspiracy theory.



https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/21/technology/facebook-campbell-brown-news.html?mtrref=www.google.com&mtrref=undefined

Commonsense said...

Roger is caught in a 60's timewarp.

Network News is no longer the only or even primary source of information for most Americans.

And while there a distinct problem of tribalism and living in a bubble, all in all, it is a good thing.

Commonsense said...

I have found that correction emblematic of the poor quality reporting you get from the New York Times these days.

It's like they are overrun by miliminal snowflakes who either never had history and current affairs in high school or didn't pay attention. (or had shitty agenda driven teachers).

Anonymous said...

Perfectly Correct.

wphamilton said...

I haven't watched network news shows since the 80's. I could assimilate information in more detail, much faster, from the major newspapers than from watching someone read a summary of it. Nowadays of course all of the information is available online.

The only lacks I felt from that were missing some of the pop culture, and not being involved in the sort of delusional instant news cycle which sweeps the networks and is later retracted, corrected or forgotten.