- Experience. Clinton has gone head to head with Barack Obama and Bernie Sanders. Trump has always had multiple people on stage with him. Her experience with this situation could be the difference.
- Preparation. She's probably been spending more time prepping for this debate than anyone has ever spend prepping for any political debate. It would follow that she will be prepared for whatever Trump can throw up there, and she should have a plan to put Trump on edge.
- Trump loses his cool. No question that much of her preparation revolves around trying to push Trump's many buttons. If she pushes enough of them, that the undisciplined Trump comes out, it could heap benefits for her.
- Media spin. Most of the media will love whatever she does and they will hate everything he does. In a time where many people gather their opinions from what they get from other people, this could be a difference maker.
- Moderators. There is no question that there has been a shot across the bow, warning the moderators that it's up to them to "fact check"
Donald Trumpin real time. This could prove to be disruptive and harmful for both candidate, but more so on Trump since that will (of course) be the emphasis.
Why Trump will win:
- Style over substance. If the GOP debates and the Commander in Chief forum was any indication, Donald Trump has a knack for dominating an event with his boisterous presence. In many ways it doesn't matter what he says, if he says in with enough confidence and vigor, it comes across positively.
- Fights his fight. The danger of Clinton trying too hard to push his buttons is that if she isn't careful, it could quickly descend into the sort of personal fight that Donald has the ability to excel at. Nobody has gone down in the mud with Donald Trump, and came out without a face full of it.
- Trump maintains his focus. One way for Trump to win is to pull Clinton down in the mud, the other way is to meet her and remain on her level of professionalism. While Clinton wins by showing a difference between the personalities. Trump wins if he can negate those differences.
- Exceeds low expectations. In baseball, the tie goes to the runner. In these debates a tie (or a close contest) goes to Trump. He doesn't need to really win. He just needs to show he belongs on stage. Anything that makes him look Presidential, helps him. Trump's lack of qualifications is literally Hillary's entire campaign focus.
- His adoring fans will believe he won regardless. Not matter what happened or what he said in his debates in the Republican primary, a large portion of the viewers simply believed he won. This helps with flash polls, internet polls, the pure volume of social media buzz. This could work (as it did in the primaries) to undercut media criticism, as it makes the media look out of touch with what draws voters.
20 comments:
If Trump isn't the idiot everyone says he is (and realistically how could he be?) then he'll be well prepared for anything Clinton will bring. She is scripted, predictable, and in these later years at least not adept at adapting to circumstances. Trump should win easily.
I actually think Trump will have an easier time of it.
All he has to do is act presidential to convince the public he is fit to be commander in chief.
That will blow Clinton's principal argument out of the water.
Clinton has to convince the public she is trustworthy after all of her scandals and shenanigans are already baked into the cake.
That's going to be a much tougher road to hold.
I agree with wp. Hillary is very packaged and handled. She's alone Monday night.
And Trump will try to do what Reagan did.....be the statesman and a reasonable option might He does that, he wins.
" In a time where many people gather their opinions from what they get from other people, this could be a difference maker."
Checking out the trash blog, eh.
"In a politics of pure spectacle, the advantage belongs to the creature of pure celebrity."
- Kevin Williamson at NRO
it's tough to argue with that logic.
In the minds of the Liberal Three Stooges, Hillary is already the declared winner.
Trump will use the video of Hillary getting behind the custom made Podium to attack her fitness to lead. How petty she has been about the SIZE Matters Podium any way.
I think her coldness will come thru and god forbid he Doctors get her meds wrong and she goes wobbly or has a coughing fit, no where to hide her from the viewers.
The spokeswoman for the Republican candidate, said that even if the majority of people think the Republican candidate loses the debate, it will be because the moderator is a prejudiced Democrat.
Morning Joe
Setting the expectations at a low.
I think that the people in his campaign, think that he won't be the Presidential candidate.
"I think that the people in his campaign, think that he won't be the Presidential candidate."
LOL. Maybe it will be Jeb!
Setting low expectations doesn't mean they don't believe in their candidate. It's a tactic used by every candidate in every debate. Do you not know that?
The polls that have just been released show a virtual tie. Although they still show Clinton is in the lead, but they are within 1% to 2%. Colorado and Pennsylvania are within the margin also.
Although she has a far more get out the vote offices, in my not so humble opinion, that she has to win tonight. Or that Trump loses it. Otherwise, the polls indicate Trump is starting to close the deal.
If he wins, be afraid, very afraid.
Blogger Roger Amick said...
The spokeswoman for the Republican candidate, said that even if the majority of people think the Republican candidate loses the debate, it will be because the moderator is a prejudiced Democrat.
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oh, you mean like candy crowley?
LOL.
well yeah, we've come to expect nothing less from the state-run steno pool. after all, they're nothing more than liberal democrats with by-lines anymore anyway.
Rumor is that Lester Holt is planning to do more fact checking (especially on Trump) than Matt Lauer did.
This could go either way. It could help Clinton if Holt does a decent job of frustrating Trump. Or it could work against Clinton, if the moderator turns out the be "viewed" as not objective... remember the negative backlash from the CNBC GOP debate.
In my humble opinion, much of that depends on Trump. Truth be told, I felt like he just did a better job of "handling" Lauer than Clinton did. Trump is not someone who ever really comes across like he is sorry or trying to spin his positions. If he simply holds firm, acts confident, and moves on to more important talking points he will do fine.
Clinton has a "knack" for looking like she is being defensive (as she did in the CIC forum). Besides the fact that almost nobody believes what comes out of her mouth.
Further, the sort of "fact checking" that the left believes is important (Howard Stern show interview from 16 years ago) is probably going to seem petty to many Americans. Especially when compared to FBI investigations, national security problems, and dead Americans.
One of her surrogates said she's going to fact-check Trump herself.
So, apparently, all of the sudden she can remember things....
she has to win tonight" HB
you are a sad tired broke little idiot of a boy.
I read that the Hillary camp is hoping she has her meds right, no falling, no stumbling, no bumbling, no coughing, but, how to over come that she has gained 40 lbs?
Will she be able to contain "Shrillary" ?
And what about that coming video of her stepping up to her big girl podium?
Across the country, liquor stores reported a desperate run on their merchandise as Americans fortified themselves for what many called "ninety minutes of horror."
Andy Borowitz
Hillary Clinton, from all sides, say she has a remarkable memory.
It comes in handy.
Lol. There's even a parody song out in her honor because she can't recall a damn thing when being questioned.
C.H. Truth said...
Rumor is that Lester Holt is planning to do more fact checking (especially on Trump) than Matt Lauer did.
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that's because the clinton surrogates, led by jennifer palmieri, are begging NBC to force lester to do his best candy crowley impersonation.
they're panicked and it shows.
Across the country, liquor stores reported a desperate run on their merchandise as Americans fortified themselves for what many called "ninety minutes of horror."
It's more likely they are stocking up for the various drinking games that will be going on tonight.
"Hillary Clinton, from all sides, say she has a remarkable memory."
Not according to the FBI.
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