According to the RCP four way race average, Donald Trump has now taken the lead in
Iowa (+1.0)
Ohio (+0.5) and
Florida (+0.2). Now of course, none of these states are actually in the bag for Trump. In fact they are all basically toss ups at this point. But reality remains that Florida and Ohio were not too terribly long ago considered Clinton states to lose. In fact, earlier in September, Clinton led in the RCP averages by around four points in both Florida and Ohio.
On the flip side, Clinton leads currently in
North Carolina by 0.7 in four way race. This is currently the only state that Romney won that Clinton is ahead in. (Note: Silver has
Trump barely ahead in North Carolina)
Add it all up and you are looking at Clinton at 293 and Trump at 245... meaning Clinton's electoral landslide is turning into a nail biter. I am pretty sure that polls in both Michigan and Pennsylvania will be watched very closely over the next couple of weeks.
Meanwhile Trump now leads three of the four tracking polls, with the forth (Ipsos) showing tied. He leads by five in the LATimes tracking poll, and three in both the UPI/CVoter and Peoples Pundit polls. All of those polls were either even or in Hillary's favor just within the past week or so.
If I were Hillary Clinton or a Hillary Clinton supporter. I might be a little nervous right now.
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9 comments:
Hillary has out spent, has had the lame stream media "edit" humiliating images and statements out of the eyes of most low information voters, yet, she trails Trump.
Maybe, just maybe those of us that work, earn and invest are going finally put a business man in the White House and get some fiscal discipline back.
Hillary promises to spend 2.1 trillion, unfunded promises to buy votes , she has targeted those that have been targeted since LBJ.
Obama's "booming Economy"
Took a 10 trillion dollar deceit and turned it into 20 Trillion.
"Meanwhile Trump now leads three of the four tracking polls, with the forth (Ipsos) showing tied"
This could have happened sooner had he stopped sparring with insignificant people sooner, imo.
RCP moved both Michigan and New Hampshire to tossup earlier this week. She's down to 204 EV now I believe. Trump remains at 154 EV at RCP.
Silver has New Hampshire at Clinton +2.9 and Mich at Clinton +4.3 - so it's reasonable to look at those as toss ups.
Silver now shows Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Nevada as Obama states all more likely to flip to Trump... than Hillary's best chance to pick up a Romney state (Arizona Trump +4.2)
My only difference is that before it all comes out Clinton will get Florida, and Indiana. Ohio and Iowa will go Republican. But if you add Florida back into the Clinton column Trump has no chance of getting enough ECV. He could even eek out a popular vote win, but blow out in the ECV.
The Union Leader came out today in favor of Johnson, called Trump a buffoon and more.
Then there is this. http://www.wsj.com/articles/team-recasts-trumps-tv-image-1473807844?mg=id-wsj
....After Mrs. Clinton’s campaign announced late Sunday that she had been diagnosed with pneumonia, many expected Mr. Trump to pounce on the news, arguing that it proved his claim she lacks the stamina to be president. Instead, Mr. Trump told campaign advisers deluged with media calls to stand down. The response struck opponents as uncharacteristic, and some supporters attributed Mr. Trump’s restraint to his new campaign organization.
Mr. Trump said efforts by previous campaign leaders to remake him into a politician were “dishonest.” And, Mr. Trump said, he resisted at times by going off script.
The Republican nominee said he was more comfortable with his new team, which, ironically, has succeeded in some of the same changes sought by former campaign chairman Paul Manafort: Mr. Trump is sticking closer to a teleprompter, giving more policy details in speeches—and making fewer off-the-cuff remarks, which hurt his campaign after the GOP convention this summer.
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I think it's going to come down to the debates. Trump is a far better at dramatics. In the past that's worked. Reagan, a trained actor, did that very well. But Trump isn't Reagan, no matter how much he thinks he is.
It seems that most every day, a previously solid Republican steps out and proclaims Trump is unfit for many reasons. Most because he is impulsive, does not listen to other, and today in Flint did not know that the Republican governor is responsible for the lead water system. He is not well informed, wings it and you guys buy in to the best con artist candidate in our history.
Chris Christie said tonight that he thinks Trump should be himself in the debates. If he follows that advice, she's going to rip him to shreds with her far better knowledge on the issues.
I'm also beginning to think that the voters don't like either one of them. So they are voting against someone, not for one.
For the first time, I'm beginning to think that Donald Trump can win. And that scares the shit out of me. He is a buffoon, and worse. Yet we may pick him. I think you will learn how bad the choice works out the hard way.
Buffoon is the usual elitist response to Donald Trump.
But he's anything but a buffoon. He's a smart businessman and amature politician who learns fast.
And he's still the candidate of change and a big portion of the electorate wants change in a big way.
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