Trump picks up eight points in latest Marist poll...Cross tabs are beginning to stabilize

Don't be fooled by the fact that McClatchy/Marist put out a poll showing Clinton winning by six points. Their last poll showed Clinton up fourteen points in a four way race, and fifteen in a two way race. This poll was a four points higher for Clinton than any other poll the last time it was released, and was a good seven or eight points higher than the averages at the time.

The cross tabs were "better" this time, but still are off with Independents by around eleven points when compared to the average of the seventeen pollsters I track cross tabs for. To put it in perspective all polling (that I can track with cross tabs) but Marist, Suffolk, and ABC/WashP show Trump leading independents. Overall, however, the huge variations are settling in at least a little.

If anyone is curious - the cross tab averages from the seventeen polls:

DEM                                REP                                IND
Clinton - 83                      Trump - 81                      Trump - 39
Trump - 6                         Clinton - 7                       Clinton - 30
Other - 7                          Other - 8                         Others - 20
Undecided - 3                   Undecided - 4                  Undecided - 11

You can play around with the Demographic breakdown to determine how you feel it will turn out? Will it be a huge Democratic advantage (nine points) as it was in 2008? A smaller advantage (six ponts) like it was in 2012? Will it be like it was in 2004 (prior to Barack Obama) when it turnout between the two Parties was even? Or perhaps it could be like 2014, when Republicans held an advantage?

Why the left should be a little nervous

Many pundits suggest that changing general population demographics suggest that the Democratic advantage might be growing (and are predicting an increased Democratic advantage in the seven to eight point range). But recent Party registration numbers show the opposite. Republicans are gaining more registered votes in most battleground states, and in some of these states Democrats are actually losing them. This, along with the fact that Democratic party advantage has only increased once over the past six elections, suggests that there really isn't much tangible evidence to back this assumption. More people doesn't necessarily create more voters.

It also may actually be that the 6-9 point advantages Democrats saw in 2008 and 2012 were flukes, spurred on by the first Black President motivating minority and young voters like nobody before him. It could also be that these get out the vote drives were so successful in 2008 and 2012, that there is simply not much of a pool of new voters to bring into the fold. These theories seems to be something almost universally ignored by pundits who generally see the increases in 2008 and 2012 as demographic in nature, and give no credence to any suggestion that it had anything to do with Obama or a very robust GOTV campaign. I would offer this is dangerous, as those same Demographic shifts did not show themselves during the midterms.

That it the real difficulty in any election. Figuring out exactly "who" is going to vote. 2016 may be the most problematic of them all.