Biden’s Voters Appear Far More Likely To Vote By Mail Than Trump’s. That Could Make For A Weird Election Night.
According to a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 30 percent of registered voters said they planned to vote by mail, and 43 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day. But among Trump supporters, only 11 percent said they planned to vote by mail, and 66 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day. Among Joe Biden backers, 47 percent said they planned to vote by mail, while only 26 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day. (The share who said they would vote early in person was consistently 20-21 percent among all three groups: Trump supporters, Biden supporters and voters overall.)
If this holds, it would mean votes cast on Election Day would skew heavily toward Trump, and votes cast by mail would skew heavily toward Biden. This has serious implications for … well, democracy. First, Trump could argue the mail ballots (which, remember, could account for most of Biden’s votes) were fraudulent and thus should not be counted. Although it’s unlikely they’d actually be thrown out, this would damage the credibility of the election in the eyes of many Trump supporters. Second, it could mean the first votes counted on election night will be disproportionately good for Trump, who might claim victory based on incomplete returns. It might not be until days later, after a good chunk of the Democratic-leaning mail vote is counted, that Biden pulls ahead.
While admitted something like this happened in California, where late counted ballots provided come from behind victories for several Democrats who had originally thought they had lost. But that was the exception (and not the rule) and that included a bunch of odd things that are only legal in the strange state of California.
In many states, the very first thing that they count are the mail in, early voting, and absentee ballots, since generally a large portion of those are already in hand. Many times the candidate with the most non-in-person votes actually is the one who starts off with a big lead... not the other way around. It's usually not until late in the night when you get a better feel for who is winning. What this pundit (and others) have been suggesting is that we will literally have to wait several days and be counting hundreds of thousand (if not millions) of late arriving ballots.
The reality is that most absentee voters or mail in voters will have likely mailed in their ballots well ahead of time. Some states even require that the absentee ballots be post-marked previous to the actual election to guarantee that those ballots will be counted with the rest. Most all states require absentee ballot applications well before the election date (which might slow down some mail voting as people realize that mail-in voting is generally a two step process).
While most states do allow for ballots to be postmarked up to election day, it would be unwise to assume that this means the majority of mail-in ballots will be coming in after the election and counted in subsequent days. In most elections there literally isn't enough absentee or mail-in votes still in the mail to change the results of the election. There probably isn't going to be that much of a difference to declare 2020 an aberration to that conventional wisdom.
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We have already run across issues with mail in ballots and quite frankly could run across more. Tens of thousands of ballots pre-printed with voter information already on them were just ruled to be invalid by a court in one state. According to most state laws, mail in ballots cannot be pre-printed with voter information because it becomes easy fodder for potential fraud. In this case, only the date of the election was allowed to be pre-printed. The rest (name address, etc) had to be filled out by the voter by hand. But in spite of knowing that it was a violation of the law, the state sent out ballots already filled out with voter information.
What happens, in this case if those pre-printed ballots start being mailed in? Those voters may or may not even know that they have filled out invalid ballots. The potential for more court cases on this sort of thing is alarmingly high, which (of course) is the biggest concern for something like this. It's one thing when states create laws over time to allow for more (or even all) mail in voting. But when there is not a system in place, trying to create one on the fly is going to cause more trouble than it might be worth. Especially when the politicians in charge are willing to "bend" the law and pass it off as a Covid related exception that should be allowed.
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One thing I do agree with is the opinion that if Trump is ahead in enough states when we wake up Wednesday morning to win reelection, there will be a problem if Biden comes from behind in a whole bunch of states with late arriving ballots. The longer there are ballots coming in, the more people will be troubled and skeptical. Generally one would expect that even ballots mailed on November 3rd, that we would only be looking at a few days at most. If ballots are still being counted a week out, you will hear much howling (and justifiably so) from people screaming that these are invalid ballots that probably missed the deadline.
Which of course brings us to the other potential issues. What if there are ballots that are postmarked for November 4th and beyond that otherwise might have changed the results? Will anyone be glib enough to demand those votes be counted? What's a day or two in the grand scheme of things? Expect someone to take up that argument and possibly even some California or Hawaiian judge to agree.