Sunday, March 6, 2022

So are sanctions going to work?

The term "devastating financial sanctions" comes out of one side of the mouth, while the other side suggests that any sanctions are more likely to cause long term than short term issues. Russia's major export of oil is still thriving as countries like Germany are hedging on whether or not they can buy elsewhere. Other countries not associated with NATO are still openly buying the oil and some western countries are simply being quiet about their transactions with the Russians.  A bipartisan bill in our own Senate that would ban imports of oil from Russia to the United States is opposed by none other than President Biden, who is said to be lobbying hard against it, preferring to keep it in his back pocket as a threat. 


The international banking sanctions can only prevent a select amount of transactions, and we hear now that Russia and China are starting their own alternative to Visa and Mastercard (which ultimately can be done with the banking situation as well). Any Russian oligarch would have likely pulled as much of their resources out of these vulnerable areas long before this invasion took place. While it is probably painful for these billionaires to lose their luxury yachts, it's probably not bankrupting them.  

Make no mistake, sanctions can work over time. But that has to be prefaced by the fact that certain types of ruthless rulers will allow their people to suffer rather than sacrifice their ambitions. To the degree that we know Putin, we might have to prepare for the fact the is probably one of those exceptions will will not care much about the suffering of his people. If we expect sanctions to work, we are talking time. Not days or weeks, but rather months and maybe even years for them to fully take hold. 

So does anyone expect that Ukraine can simply take this sort of bombardment for a time period that works into weeks, months, and even years? If not, then sactions alone are not going to work to end this conflict.

55 comments:

Myballs said...

Chris Christie was on Stephanopoulos this morning showing George, Jon Karl and Donna Brazile how dumb their rhetoric is. They had no response.

rrb said...


Chris Christie was on Stephanopoulos this morning showing George, Jon Karl and Donna Brazile how dumb their rhetoric is. They had no response.


All of the Sunday shows have become variations of 'The View.'

Fucking clueless, appealing only to their trained clapping seals like the alky and the pederast.


Caliphate4vr said...

How Stupid Is Kamala Harris, Really?

Very, very

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Well, Ch, you are arguing that sanctions will not work.

So what do you advocate that we do that WILL work?

Anonymous said...

Roger, your team has all the Power.

Fix it.

Anonymous said...

Biden should have never attacked US Oil production. He did it day one.

When he begged Putin for oil, Putin knew Joe could be had.

Putin moved in US Weakness.

C.H. Truth said...

Well, Ch, you are arguing that sanctions will not work.

So what do you advocate that we do that WILL work?



Well Reverend, not to just repeat what I just wrote, but they will take time to work and depending on the resolve of the person in charge to hang onto their personal goals they sometimes never work. We have had sanctions in place against world leaders that went on for years because they never changed their ways.

Even the President has argued that these sanctions are not going to have an immediate impact.


But I would have a question in return.

Do YOU believe that they will work quickly?

How long do you think the Ukrainians will hold out?

After all, the Russians are just indiscriminately bombing at this point and it is creating nothing short of a terror like situation that is going to eventually break the will of these people. Fighting is all good and well, but when many of these towns have no electricity and they have no access to supplies. How long can an average citizen with a gun stand up to long range missiles and eventually heavy artillery.

This is a great story of a proud nation standing up to tyranny. But unless the Russians literally start running out of bombs and equipment (and with 60 billion a year in military budget that might take a while) - these people are going to be suffering.


Everyone is so concerned with how long the Russians can keep it up... but nobody wants to ask that same question of the people who are actually being terrorized by illegal targeting of residential private businesses and actual citizens. Children are being killed, Reverend?

Anonymous said...

Roger you said North Dakota oil.production is up.

No it is not .

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrfpnd1&f=m

Anonymous said...

President Haley said, “Stop reacting and start leading. First of all, work with Ukraine on real-time intelligence so we can tell them everything that’s happening that they can’t see, make sure that we send anti-tank, anti-air missiles immediately, make sure that we are telling Poland and NATO that they’ve got to supply these planes to Ukraine, they need them right away so they can cover their own air space. We’ve got to make sure we sanction these energy companies, all of them. We’ve got to make sure that we pull them out of the international banking system. And we need to stop taking any Russian oil. The idea that we would give our money to an enemy is unthinkable, and it’s absolute lunacy. We can’t allow this to continue.”

Contrast that answer with VP Harris responses.

Caliphate4vr said...

Well Reverend, not to just repeat what I just wrote, but they will take time to work and depending on the resolve of the person in charge to hang onto their personal goals they sometimes never work. We have had sanctions in place against world leaders that went on for years because they never changed their ways.

The freaking Crimea sanctions are still in place

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

If we impose sanctions on oil from Russia, the price would double immediately. We should threaten him?? Most people support it, but the economy might collapse.

The President should not rule it out.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

We also have to stop the Chinese from invading Taiwan.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Ch, I asked you what YOU would do whether sanctions are, or are not, going to work quickly.

I ask you that again.

What would you do NOW that we are not doing NOW?

This time, please do not answer with just another question.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

If we impose sanctions on oil from Russia, the price would double immediately" Always Wrong Roger

Nope, calm.down Nancy.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Opinion | The Cancellation of Mother Russia Is Underway
March 6, 2022

Credit... Pool photo by Alexei Nikolsky
Thomas L. Friedman
Opinion Columnist

With every passing day, the war in Ukraine becomes a bigger tragedy for the Ukrainian people but also a bigger threat to the future of Europe and the world at large. There is only one country that might have the power to stop it now, and it’s not the United States. It’s China.

If China announced that, rather than staying neutral, it was joining the economic boycott of Russia — or even just strongly condemning its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine and demanding that it withdraw — it might shake Vladimir Putin enough to stop this vicious war. At a minimum, it would give him pause, because he has no other significant ally aside from India in the world now.

C.H. Truth said...

What would you do NOW that we are not doing NOW?

Well that depends, Reverend. If you actually want Ukraine to win the war then you probably need a no fly zone, you need to move the fighter jets that Ukraine asked for days ago (which are being held up by Biden according to all sources).

You have to "risk" a bigger escalation with Russia, because if you truly believe (as you are being told) that Russia is struggling to win against Ukraine - then most certainly Putin would not risk shooting down a NATO plane if they instituted a No-fly zone over Ukraine.

Honestly, much of this could have been done cleaner before the invasion took place. Setting up Ukraine with extra equipment, Jets, and implementing a preemptive No Fly Zone would have probably prevented this.



But otherwise none of this makes any sense.

You want to argue that Putin miscalculated and has no ability to win in Ukraine - but then you suggest that we cannot risk escalating the situation by getting involved?

If they cannot handle Ukraine, then why on god's green earth would you worry that NATO would be in ANY DANGER whatsoever?

Anonymous said...

Roger, I forgive your startling ignorance of all things financial and economic.

"If we impose sanctions on oil from Russia, the price would double immediately. "

Nope, you dope.

Anonymous said...

I told you oil was going over $100, I told you 12 month ago.

Fact "What was the highest oil price ever? According to Barron's, the price of U.S.-based oil was the highest it had ever been in 2008, at $147 a barrel."

Yet , Roger predicts $236 oil.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Re 1:37
Sounds like you don't really have much of a clue, Ch.

Meanwhile, things are being done.
For example,

Elon Musk Donates Starlink Satellite Systems to Ukraine

“Ukraine will receive another batch of SpaceX’s Starlink satellite systems this coming week to help maintain the country’s access to Internet and ability to communicate,” the Washington Post reports.



U.S. Sees Evidence of Russian War Crimes

“Evidence is mounting that Russia is committing war crimes in its invasion of Ukraine, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Sunday, making some of the Biden administration’s sharpest comments to date on the issue,” the Washington Post reports.

Said Blinken:
“We’ve seen very credible reports of delivered attacks on civilians which would constitute a war crime. We’ve seen very credible reports about the use of certain weapons.”


Wall Street Journal:
“President Biden said last week that it was clear Russians were deliberately targeting civilian areas but he stopped short of calling it a war crime, saying it was too soon to tell.”

So it's no longer "too soon to tell": Russia IS committing war
crimes!


AND HERE'S ANOTHER WAR CRIME!

More Than 3,000 Protesters Arrested in Russia

“Despite the threat of years long prison terms, thousands of Russians joined antiwar rallies across the country on Sunday in a striking show of the pent-up anger in Russian society about President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine,” the New York Times reports.

“The police reported more than 3,000 arrests across the country — the highest nationwide total officially reported in any single day of protest in recent memory.”


Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

What we need to do is provide the Ukrainians the means to fight; anti-armor and intelligence and cyber over-watch," he explained. "We need to slam Putin with heavy sanctions. I would argue to include oil and gas and above all we need to continue to rally the NATO alliance, move our forces to the border, continue that flow of military equipment into Ukraine.

It's a lot better than a third world war..


Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

https://youtu.be/YoyQuNIzQ-E

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Ch hates liberals so much that he is unable to get his head out of his ass.

LMAO

C.H. Truth said...

Sure Reverend...

One of us directly answers questions.

The other posts the same thing over in BOLD CAPS and cuts and pastes from Politicalwire.com all day.

The former obviously has a clue.

The latter appears to be incapable of thought.


But I will give you a second chance.

Do you think that Putin will stop because of the Sanctions?

Why do you insist that Putin cannot win a war with Ukraine and their 5 billion dollar military, but are afraid of getting the US or NATO involved whose collective countries have over a half a trillion dollars in annual military spending?

Why are you afraid to risk war with a bunch of kids who are running out of food and supplies and don't really want to fight?

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Ch is for a no fly zone,
BUT it is "widely held" that that is not a good idea---

U.S. Lawmakers Nix ‘No Fly’ Zone Over Ukraine

“Members of Congress on Sunday emphasized what has become a widely held position on Capitol Hill:
that the United States should respond to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
by banning Russian oil imports,
but NOT
by imposing a no-fly zone over the country
that could draw nuclear powers into war,”
the New York Times reports.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

probably need no fly zone yet but

We need to move the fighter jets that Ukraine asked for days ago (which are being held up by Biden according to all sources).

Your sources are fucking crazy websites

Caliphate4vr said...


Blogger Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...
Ch is for a no fly zone,


That’s not what he said, you liar

C.H. Truth said...

Well Reverend...

You asked me for "my opinion" and I gave it to you.

You want to win the war, then you are going to need to do more than sanctions. You want to work with sanctions, then you are just accepting more destruction and death on the part of the Ukrainians and in essence you are going to just punish Putin for bad behavior.

This is akin to the police saying they won't stop a murder because it's risky, but they will later try to arrest the person and punish them for that crime.

on the flip side:

I asked for "your opinion" and once again you provided someone else's opinion. Apparently you have no opinion other than you appear to believe that our Congress is infallible in their opinions.

If our Congress says something well then it must be true?



I offer this clearly. Our interest appear to be one that we want to "look like" we are offering help, even as we reject the DIRECT REQUESTS from Zelenskyy.

Do you believe that our Congress knows better than Zelenskyy what he needs to win, or do you just accept that we are going to give him less than he needs as to not ruffle feathers.

Seems that Putin has our congress by the short and curlies here.

C.H. Truth said...

Your sources are fucking crazy websites

You mean CNN and White House spokespeople?

Anonymous said...

Bidenomics according to alky.

"Most people support it, but the economy might collapse."

Also alky:
predicts $236 oil

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Ch "answers" questions with questions.

I have here put a few comments of my own in brackets and boldface:


Ch says:
Why do you insist that Putin cannot win a war with Ukraine and their 5 billion dollar military...

[I never "insisted" that. Never even stated it.]

...but are afraid of getting the US or NATO involved whose collective countries have over a half a trillion dollars in annual military spending?

[Well, everybody but you, Ch, seems to think it would be better not to give Putin too much of an excuse to use nuclear weapons.
--But then you are more expert than they are, I suppose, at militarily assessing what Putin might do.]


Why are you afraid to risk war with a bunch of kids who are running out of food and supplies and don't really want to fight?

[What you are trying to say, Ch? What bunch of kids?
I guess you must mean the young invading Russian soldiers who,
whether you like it or not,
are expressing a lot of dismay at what they are being asked to do.
And it HAS become surprisingly evident that they previously have been badly supplied with food and munitions, etc.]

But now let me ask you something:

I have been surprised by Ukraine's ability not only to hold out this long, but to actually inflict real damage on the Russians.
I do not pretend to know how long that can continue, or how long it will,
--but it is often said that an invading force of thousands may not be able to defeat a homeland force of millions who do not want them there.

But you seem to be rooting for the invaders, for some dark reason.

Why?

Anonymous said...

Roger AmickFebruary 11, 2022 at 9:45 PM

I have a great future with a very beautiful woman. If I visit my daughter Charlee and the family, I would like our families meet.



I have always thought I was superior than you. "

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Mr. Biden could calm markets with a speech committing to boost domestic energy production. 
WSJ

You are right now, but he actually listens to both sides.

You know how damage to the President and the economy.


He should holds a news conference with McConnell and a couple other real Republican senators, and be honest about the costs of gasoline.

But a now fly zone is a very dangerous situation since the second world war.

Caliphate4vr said...

You know how damage to the President and the economy.

Whaaa???

Anonymous said...

Joe is that you?

"You know how damage to the President and the economy."

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

After posting my last, I just now read Ch's 2:07.

Not only does he lack a convincing argument,
he even dares at the end to smirk,
"Seems that Putin has our congress by the short and curlies here."

For what dark reason does Ch continue rooting FOR THE RUSSIAN INVADERS?

Anonymous said...

Damn Joe.

"But a now fly zone".

Anonymous said...

I told ya Biden's attack on US Energy independence was a fucking stupid thing to do.

Now, Roger wants Joe to reverse his failed policies.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

You know how damage the oil sanctions would do to the President and the economy.

Gasoline might hit $10 per gallon.

But I think it's better than a war with Russia


Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

REGARDING CH's 2:07:
Not only does he lack a convincing argument,
but he even dares at the end to smirk,
"Seems that Putin has our congress by the short and curlies here."

For what dark reason does Ch continue rooting FOR THE RUSSIAN INVADERS?

Anonymous said...

Lordie, this is Joe Biden or our Alky ?

"You know how damage the oil sanctions would do to the President and the economy"

Anonymous said...

Biden caused the USA to lose our Ability to produce more oil and gas.

He should apologize and resign.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Scott, this is historically outstanding

In January, as Russia’s military buildup threatened Ukraine, the German government declined to support Kyiv with lethal aid. Instead, it sent Kyiv 5,000 helmets and a $5 million field hospital. It also blocked other NATO countries from sending German-made weapons to Ukraine. “Germany has not supported the export of lethal weapons in recent years,” Chancellor Olaf Scholz told reporters at the time.

Last week, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Germany sent 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger anti-aircraft defense systems to Ukraine. Berlin also unblocked other EU countries from sending German-made equipment.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine, Scholz said in a Saturday statement, was a “turning point.”

A day later, Scholz showed exactly how dramatic this turning point would be. In just one speech to the Bundestag, Germany’s parliament, Scholz undid decades of German foreign and defense policy. Most strikingly, Scholz proposed massive investments in Germany’s defense and security, reversing the country’s reluctance to build up its military. It’s a seismic shift not just for the country, but potentially for Europe and the trans-Atlantic relationship.

“It’s really revolutionary,” said Sophia Besch, a Berlin-based senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform. “Scholz, in his speech, did away with and overturned so many of what we thought were certainties of German defense policy. He ticked off just one taboo after the next.”

FEATURED VIDEOS FROM VOXPutin's war on Ukraine, explained

Scholz said Germany would need to invest much more in its security, “in order to protect our freedom and our democracy.” He introduced a €100 billion ($113 billion) special fund for investments in the Bundeswehr, Germany’s armed forces. He committed Germany to spending more than 2 percent of its GDP on defense — a target all NATO member countries agreed to meet, but one that less than half actually do. Germany spent a total of about €47 billion on defense in 2021. And, if that wasn’t enough, Scholz also said Germany would seek to guarantee a more secure energy supply — as in, away from dependence on Russia and its natural gas, a little more than a week after he paused approval on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

Scholz called Putin’s war a “Zeitenwende” — a turning point, or “watershed moment.” But as German speakers tried to explain, it’s larger than that. It’s akin to the dawning of a new era.

“It’s a very disorienting moment,” said Tyson Barker, head of the technology and global affairs program at the German Council on Foreign Relations. “But, at the same time, the public and the political class are all on board.”

Scholz’s announcement was reportedly a surprise even within his own governing coalition, but he received applause and a standing ovation in the Bundestag when he made these defense commitments.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Ukraine invasion entirely upended Germany’s views of Russia, and of security, both its own and Europe’s. It is unprecedented, but this is also an unprecedented time — war and a refugee crisis in Europe that is unraveling the post-Cold War order.

“The images of democracy being thwarted, of a sovereign country being invaded, that’s what it took to wake Germany up,” said Rachel Rizzo, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center. “The question now is: how long does it stay?”

Wow

Anonymous said...

Take NOTE.

Roger has predicted $10 gas and $236 oil.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

CH SAID:
"Seems that Putin
has our congress by
the short and curlies
here."


For what dark reason, Ch,
do you continue rooting
FOR THE RUSSIAN INVADERS?


Could you answer that directly
and not just by asking another question?

C.H. Truth said...

But you seem to be rooting for the invaders, for some dark reason. Why?

Give me one statement I made that "supports" or "roots" for the Russians.


Not your complete and total idiotic viewpoint that actually accepting the fact that the Ukrainians are suffering unimaginable damages to their cities and towns, that 3% of their entire population has been displaced, and that women and children are DYING.

You want to sugar coat that... pretend that the only people here suffering are the Russian troops, and that somehow the Ukrainians will eventually win this war of attrition (which is still less than two weeks old).



Does rooting against Putin really mean I have to accept that silly version of events, Reverend.


Sounds to me like you would rather not think about this happening in your town. Bombs destroying your buildings, friends dead in the street missing limbs, children you know dead. Meanwhile the world looks on and talks about cancelling "Paypal" in Russia.

Must be "nice" to have that ability to compartmentalize your political viewpoints so that you can ignore all the pain and suffering as it pertains to how you "view" this politically.


One way or the other...

Are you at all concerned with the Ukrainian people?

If so, do you REALLY feel like these people are going to be helped by sanctions that our own President has stated will not be felt short term?

If we are not going to really help the Ukrainians win the war, then is it helping that we just prolong it so that Putin goes to even harsher and more violent measures?

They have moved on from residential areas to now apparently deploying dirty bombs? People could be dying for years from that sort of attack.

C.H. Truth said...

Reverend...

You don't believe that Putin has our Congress by the short and curlies here?

Or do you just want to censor that opinion because in your mind it constitutes some sort of support to tell the truth?

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Ch SAID:
Give me one statement I made that "supports" or "roots" for the Russians.

I DO INDEED SAY:
Your smirking remark that Putin "has our congress by the short and curlies" seems to suggest that.

As for the rest of your dribble above at 2:57 --
where, as usual, you tell me things I am thinking that I do not think --
I will answer that dribble LATER.
Right now, I am going to the library, and that is more important.

Stew on.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Even the Gateway Pundit is not fucking crazy...

Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Sunday said the US is “looking” at banning Russian oil nearly two weeks after Putin invaded Ukraine.

So far the only sanctions against Russia have hurt the innocent civilians. " It ignored the sanctions on the oligarchs "



Big corporations such as Visa and Mastercard are also ‘canceling’ innocent Russian civilians as the US refuses to ban Russian oil imports.

Blinken suggested to “Meet the Press” host Chuck Todd that the United States would not unilaterally make a decision to ban Russian importing oil

“We are looking… in coordination with allies and partners at this prospect of banning [Russian] oil and gas,” Blinken said.

It's worth it because it might keep a Third World War




Myballs said...

Even CNN is now telling biden to get off his ass and increase domestic oil production. That idiot is the last person on America who doesn't see 5hat it is needed.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

It's worth it because it might prevent a Third World War

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

BEFORE I GO--
Ukrainians Find Relatives in Russia Don’t Believe It’s War

New York Times:
“As Ukrainians deal with the devastation of the Russian attacks in their homeland,
many are also encountering a confounding and almost surreal backlash from family members in Russia,
who refuse to believe that Russian soldiers could bomb innocent people,
or even that a war is taking place at all.” *

“These relatives have essentially bought into the official Kremlin position:
that President Vladimir Putin’s army is conducting a limited ‘special military operation’ with the honorable mission of ‘de-Nazifying’ Ukraine.” *
__________

*They have bought into Putian LIES
the same way a lot of Americans bought into Trumpian LIES
that there was no invasion of our Capitol Building and that he won the election.

C.H. Truth said...

It's worth it because it might prevent a Third World War

Of course Roger...

They are not bombing your nursing home and your daughter and grandkids are not lying dead in the street with limbs all over the place. From the safety of being across the other side of the world...

Those Ukrainian sacrifices are well worth it for us, huh?

Anonymous said...

Remember Roger cares.

"It's worth it because it might prevent a Third World War"

Anonymous said...

MyballsMarch 6, 2022 at 3:19 PM

Even CNN is now telling biden to get off his ass and increase domestic oil production. That idiot is the last person on America who doesn't see that it is needed"


Joe is in a corner caused by his policies.