The most recent Fox News poll shows Clinton leading Trump by six in a head to head, and five in a three way including Libertarian Gary Johnson. Clinton was leading by three in the previous poll. So what makes the difference?
- Clinton up 83-6 with Democrats (Clinton up from 79%)
- Trump up 74-10 with Republicans (Trump down from 82%)
- Trump up 39-31 with Independents (Trump up from 35%)
You can pretty much attribute all of the three point movement to partisan differences and then some. Whereas Clinton is consolidating her Democratic Support, Trump is losing support among Republicans.
The lion's share of the drop comes from those who are "once again" wanting or even expecting to see someone else come out of the convention with the nomination (only 52% of those say they will vote for him). Again, we can only speculate if this is a permanent change, or if the very recent resurgence of the Dump Trump movement is responsible for this. If it is the former, it would bode poorly for his chances. If it's the latter, then there should be a reasonable expectation of another bounce, once the nomination is official.
The good news for Trump is that he increased his lead with Independents, a demographic he will need to win, in order to stand a chance. The other bright side of this for Trump and his supporters is that there is some serious low hanging fruit, with over a quarter of Republicans not currently supporting him. If he continues to lead Independents, and can bring some of those wayward Republicans home, then demographically he should stand a pretty good chance.
6 comments:
Do you think that the Dump Trump movement has a chance?
Myself, highly unlikely, unless the polls show that he will go down so hard, he will take both houses of congress with him.
I don't see that happening before the convention.
But if he burns and crashes in the fall season, there will be a lot of broken dreams and regrets. 50%? 😇
He will get a bump after the convention when the uncertainly is laid to rest.
Republicans may wish they had a different candidate, but they will vote for him over Hillary in the general election.
Where does the FBI stand, was the Bill Clinton - AG Lynch Meeting on her plane the green light that Hillary will never be charged like so many regular Americans?
There aren't a whole lot of Republicans and a lot of them are so disgusted they may not vote at all.
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Ch's thread article is pretty good. It actually admits there is a problem (something the Republican bigwigs are well aware of). The one thing I find quite questionable is Ch's ending-- "...then demographically he should stand a pretty good chance."
Dream on.
then demographically he should stand a pretty good chance."
James-
If this is a typical/average Presidential election year in terms of demographic breakdown and Trump can consolidate Republican support and still win Independents by mid to upper single digits (which is what this and other poll shows)...
Then he absolutely stands a good chance of winning.
But the key is whether or not he can consolidate the GOP vote. That's easier said than done.
7:26 "But the key is whether or not he can consolidate the GOP vote. That's easier said than done."
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True. But how odd that he and you have to worry about that.
But do you really want this incompetent, venal clown to be REPUBLICAN President? He's already causing enough damage to the party brand just be being the presumptive nominee. PRESIDENT Trump could REALLY sink the party.
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