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Saturday, August 20, 2016

This has been a good week or two for Donald Trump

While it may have escaped the attention of some of your garden variety cognitive dissonant liberals, there is no question that Donald Trump had a pretty good week or two.
  • Let's start with the obvious. There has not been a non-partisan* pollster that has released a four way poll (including Johnson and Stein) that has shown a Clinton lead over Trump by more than six points since the Monmouth poll released on August 7th. That's nine different pollsters in a two week period, all showing a four way race anywhere between six points to two point lead up. On top of that, one of the two tracking polls now shows the race even (the other is at four). National polling fluxes many times precede similar fluxes in State polling. Time will tell if this is the case.
  • Donald Trump gave a series of solid policy speeches that have been covered "favorably" by those who have covered them. The fact that your anti-Trump MSM has failed to report much on them, proves that they were anything but the embarrassment that would have been expected by those journalists.
  • Donald Trump showed up in Louisiana, while both Obama and Clinton ignored it. This provided some with an opportunity to say it showed Trump looking Presidential, while it high lighted the fact that the Administration and Democratic nominees do not seem sympathetic to the plight of the people in Louisiana. The President was golfing and the Secretary is at a birthday celebration. Trump even got Mary Landreiu to say nice things about him. Had it been the other way around (Clinton showed and Trump didn't) the media would have led with the story for a week straight. 
  • Donald Trump "shake up" ham-stringed the media. How can you simultaneously claim that Trump is a man who doesn't listen to anyone, then demand it shows weakness when he replaces those who would be advising him. If he doesn't listen to them, he wouldn't be replacing them. If he replaced them, it's because he was willing to be flexible, change up what wasn't working, and move forward with a new strategy. The media is in a twist trying to report this in the worst possible way... and it shows. Likewise with the statement of "regrets". The media, who dared Trump to apologize, doesn't know what to do now that he has. Going after "how" he apologized looks petty, but that seems to be the only angle they have. In both situations, one can almost feel the desperation from the media trying to turn these situations negative, and the frustration that it's not really gaining traction. 
  • Hillary's health has become an issue. From her own responses, to her Doctor's responses stating there have been forged documents floating around with signature, to the campaign releasing the Doctor's letter again... it all suggests that this has gained traction (or at least the Clinton camp believes it has). Even her light campaign schedule has been questioned. More to the point, this is a persuasive "kill shot" designed to continue to keep giving; as every little slip or fumble or moment of confusion over the next twelve weeks will add to the narrative that there is some thing (possibly neurological) wrong with Hillary Clinton. At the very least, this sits in the back of Hillary's mind and could effect her performance on the trail. 
  • Trump has released his first round of advertising, and rather aggressively. The harsh negative reaction from the left regarding the ads, along with their insistence that they will not work, probably means that his advertisement is hitting the mark. If it was really missing that bad, a Trump hating media would simply sit back and let it backfire.  
  • Trump has people talking about whether he can get the black vote. The first rule of negotiations and salesmanship is to always ask for what you want. Sometimes the best way to make the sale is to simply step up and ask the potential client to buy it. The worse they can do is say no, and you are no worse off than before. By basically telling the black community that the status quo hasn't been working for them, and that it may be time for them to try something new... he at least opens a dialogue. By making the claims about 95% support in 2020, he understands that the media cannot help themselves, and that they will cover his statements. Because he has almost no black support to begin with, it's a no lose situation for Trump. All he has to do is give a speech a few times, and the media will do the rest of the work for him. 
Now most of this is going on more behind the scenes, rather than outwardly being reported on by the main stream media. But this sort of has to be the new norm. If things are going well for Clinton, you will hear about it. If nobody is talking about how well things are going for Clinton, or if they are holding on to old news, that means that it probably is going well for Trump.

Right now, we are sort of in a holding pattern. The left side of the media is still reporting the same tired old rumors about Republican unrest, and still reporting it as news every time someone who leans to the right says they may not vote for Trump. This tells me that they have nothing negative to report that is actually new or relevant. Many are still attempting to report as fact that the momentum is still on the Hillary side, that she is pulling away, and that we are nearing a point of no return. This is being reinforced by others in the media repeating similar reports of similar suggestions sometimes even referencing each others in their reports. Because, if enough people in the media say it, then it must be true... right?

Bottom line, nothing much is happening good for Hillary or bad for Trump. When this happens, you see the natural gravity of our two Party system take hold, and the polls tighten. The longer this goes on, the better for Trump. The more Trump can remain looking composed and Presidential, while simultaneously controlling his outrageous statements to those he want's the media to report... the more he will force Hillary to come out and meet him head on, rather than sit back and let the media do her work for her.


*one polling firm I never heard of, commissioned by a Democratic affiliated with the drive to overturn citizen's united released a poll showing Clinton up 8 points in a four way race. not losted by RCP or most others. 

30 comments:

Roger Amick said...

It is a major ordeal, they free up the interstate for him. We have to take hundreds of local first responders, police officers, sheriffs, deputies and state troopers to provide security for that type of visit. I would just as soon have those people engaged in the response rather than trying to secure the president. So I’d ask him to wait, if he would, another couple weeks.

The governor of Louisiana.

C.H. Truth said...

Sure Roger...

That's exactly how it was played when Bush didn't come directly to New Orleans at the time of Katrina... that he was doing them a service by waiting.

Trump managed to show up, and people were happy he did. Even Democrats.

Either way, it looks good for Trump that he showed up, and bad for Hillary and Obama who have been partying and golfing respectively.

Roger Amick said...

A good week
States with Hillary in the lead.
Pennsylvania
The entire Mid West with the exception of Indiana
Florida
North Carolina
Florida
Iowa
Georgia
Nevada
Colorado
Arizona is trending towards Clinton. He would have to pick off at least four of then to get close. With 79 days left, time is running out.

Baton Rouge was a photo op.

His claim that if he's elected, that 95% of the African American vote is laughable. It was a blatant attempt to soften his image among wavering Republicans, who all in the suburbs white, educated men and women don't plan on voting for him. His approval among Republicans is the lowest since they started taking this statistic.

He was only thee long enough to get handed a box of candy. The governor basically said go F^^k yourself.

The governor specifically requested that the President put off the visit because the resources necessary to rescue 40,000 people were already stretched

Your shilling on her health, golf and assorted other party lines weaken your claim to be an objective observer.

C.H. Truth said...

The governor specifically requested that the President put off the visit because the resources necessary to rescue 40,000 people were already stretched

So when Donald Trump comes to Louisiana and gets an overwhelmingly good response from the people there... and it's become evident that the lack of attention from the White House and Hillary is becoming an issue for the PEOPLE who live in the state and are suffering...

you believe that the Democratic Governor apologizing for the fact that the President has ignored the crisis... is somehow relevant. While Trump, doing what the people want and garnering praise even from former Democrats from the state... is the one being "political" ??

You look up the definition of "Cognitive Dissonance" and you get this:

cognitive dissonance

James said...

Donald Trump has asked "what the hell" do blacks stand to lose by voting for him.

How about a man who was sued for housing discrimination against communities of color.

How about a man who courts white supremacists and just appointed one of them to be his campaign manager.

How about a man who questions the citizenry of our first black president.

James said...

Ch: "Trump has released his first round of advertising."

When will he release his first round of tax returns?

Some HUGE debts have now come to light that he no doubt does not want spotlighted.

KD said...

HB, I find it always comical when you post for a host of reasons.

Her CHT puts up a thread that Trump did have two good weeks and you are inconsolable.

Breathlessly you run in to tell us just how much Hillary is winning this Election by, but, missing one point, not a single ballot has been cast of yet.

Hillary has gone off radar but why, is she very ill and needs rest, proably. She "phoned in " from Martha Vineyard while vacationing and partying with the Elite Rich of the USA and from Abroad.

She has out spent Trump 30 to 1, and yet she is barely leading in the "polls".

I remember you and jane are very much against the spending of huge amounts of money in this election, she has burn thru 1/2 a billion already. Were you two only against the spending when done by Republicans/Conservative, but all for it when done by your buddies the Progressives?

Roger Amick said...

The same old story, uh huh.

The only "evidence" that he had a good week, is your opinion.

The swing states are showing that Hillary has added to her list.

There is no tangible evidence to support your hero had a good couple weeks.
A big crowd of supporters, does not mean a damn thing.

Obama will do that and probably more, next week.

C.H. Truth said...


How about a man who was sued for housing discrimination against communities of color.


James - Did he "lose" those lawsuits?

How about the lawsuits he "won" in order to open country clubs in Palm Beach that "included" Blacks and Jews when the powers to be thought that sent the wrong message. They wanted all of the clubs to be all White country clubs.

Meanwhile, at that same time, guess who and her Husband were hanging around "all White Country Clubs" down in Arkansas.

C.H. Truth said...

The only "evidence" that he had a good week, is your opinion.

I provided seven different examples of why I felt he had a good couple of weeks... and you offered exactly no empirical evidence that any of my examples are wrong.

This is your major issue Roger. You cannot debate. You can only toss around vague hyperbole that suggests you actually didn't read, much less consider anything I wrote. Sadly, this is why you are by and far the leader of the pack as it pertains to comments that I am forced to moderate. Even James has started to figure out how to provide dialogue considered somewhat relevant.

A sign of growing cognitive dissonance.

Myballs said...

There is an outstanding commentary over at Power line titled Trump 2.0. I encourage everyone to go and read it.

Roger Amick said...

If you want an argument,
let's wait till the polls that will be taken over the weekend and see if there is any movement in the Electoral College count starts to go Trump's direction. As of now, I still think it's an opinion, not backed by numbers that matter.

According to the latest Reuters IPSOS poll shows Clinton ahead by 9% in a four way poll. And with only 79 days to go, it's going to be tough. At this time four years ago, Obama lead by only 2%.

And you know darn well that unless he can start getting some of the swing states in his column soon, the window will close real soon.

C.H. Truth said...

Roger - First, there is no Reuters Ipsos poll showing Clinton ahead in a four way match up by nine points. The latest release of the poll was through the 17th and it's only four points. So you are simply wrong on fact.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/ipsos-reuters-25213

Secondly... making an incorrect claim is not any sort of rebuttal to any of the points made in my post.

A good couple of weeks only moves the momentum back to his side as is being shown by the most recent national polling (notice the down arrows on RCP - since you are easily taken in by the use of graphical arrows). When RCP removes the 13 point Monmouth poll from their four way race, it will be down to under 4.5 points.

and considering Trump just started his advertising, we have not gotten past labor day, and we are still over four weeks from the "first debate"...

Your argument that something drastic has to change by Monday to prove a good couple of weeks for Trump is about as stupid as an argument could possibly be.

So I take it back. You actually made strong argument. Unfortunately for you, it's strong in the same way the stench of a skunk is strong.

Roger Amick said...

This is the last two paragraphs on the PowerLine blog that myballs suggested. It's surprisingly along the dame line I have been making.

"A friend who was recently in North Carolina told me he neither saw nor heard a Trump ad. It’s nice that Trump delivered one of the two speeches John praised in Charlotte. But how many North Carolina voters heard it?

Maybe Trump is advertising on the air to a significant degree in certain other states. However, he trails Clinton in Virginia and (narrowly) in North Carolina, both of which are, or recently have been, battleground states. I don’t see Trump losing both states and winning the presidency.

Trump’s poll numbers seem to have improved ever so slightly in recent days. Harry Enten at FiveThirtyEight says that Clinton doesn’t have the race locked up. But it seems to me that if Trump is to make a race of it, needs to get on the airwaves and do so soon.

this is the link. I should find the HTML code to make a link but for now, it's easy enough to copy and paste.

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2016/08/trump-2-0-cant-just-be-better-speeches.php

Roger Amick said...

The four way poll, released yesterday, said that Clinton had 41% and Trump at 34% I was off by 2% and I was using the four way poll It's on the web site, I looked it up on my Kindle so I don't have the link, but you are smart enough to find it.

A guy with a math degree should be able to
41-34=7

C.H. Truth said...

This was the piece suggested by MyBalls - written by John Hinderaker

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2016/08/trump-2-0.php

You're quoting the follow up piece from Paul Mirengoff.

And considering Trumps advertising is starting to get set to air, it's not surprising to me that nobody has heard it in any of the battle ground states as of yet (because it isn't playing). Right wrong or indifferent, Trump made a choice to hold back almost all of his advertising till after labor day.

Clinton is about 40-50 thousand ads in front... and has had almost unlimited media help in attacking Trump. Let's see what happens when Trump starts advertising, and the media runs out of things to attack.

I agree that Mirengoff is right to suggest that Trump will not get heavy media coverage for speeches. That's true for any candidate. But for Trump, some good speeches (even if people just hear that they are good without specifics) can make a big difference with Trump's low expectation game.

But Mirengoff's question about Trump already being dead is common, but misguided.

Some very recent polling suggests that there is between 16-20 percent of the public that are currently leaning one way or the other, but admit that they could change their minds. This number is almost identical with between 8-10 percent of Clinton leaners saying they could vote Trump, and between 8-10 Trump leaners saying they could vote for Clinton.

Meaning this race has a chance to move big... in either direction.

C.H. Truth said...

The four way poll, released yesterday, said that Clinton had 41% and Trump at 34% I was off by 2% and I was using the four way poll It's on the web site, I looked it up on my Kindle so I don't have the link, but you are smart enough to find it.

Roger... I have that link bookmarked.

But it rarely has matched the weekly release of the polling, with the internal cross tabs many times not even being close. As far as I can tell, it's more of a raw results page. They must do some final weighing before it's released.

There is a reason why neither RCP or Huffington Post is using it as a daily tracking poll. They have both started to wait (as I have) for their weekly release before posting new results.

(not to mention, sometimes they just adjust the results and start over)

So I caution you to wait till their next release before getting too excited by a one day change (which generally just reflects the fact that they got more/less Democrats and less/more Republican that particular day).

Roger Amick said...

Anonymous Myballs said...
There is an outstanding commentary over at Power line titled Trump 2.0. I encourage everyone to go and read it.

Roger Amick said...

Trump's decision to throw in with the likes of Bannon can only lead to disaster. Does I have to be spell it out for you? Trump could not give a sh about the party, and he would happily destroy it to feed his own ego.

C.H. Truth said...

There is an outstanding commentary over at Power line titled Trump 2.0. I encourage everyone to go and read it.

Yes Roger

TRUMP 2.0?

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2016/08/trump-2-0.php


Not

TRUMP 2.0” CAN’T JUST BE BETTER SPEECHES

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2016/08/trump-2-0-cant-just-be-better-speeches.php

C.H. Truth said...

Either way Roger...

I must apologize for suggesting that in a General election that not every week will be a great week for your hero... I am sorry I have the audacity to even suggest that occasionally things will happen that are not in her favor.

We can all see just how upset such a suggestion is to you. Like it's eating you up inside that there are people out there who might believe in ebb and flow. Obviously these are stupid people like myself who cannot do simple subtraction. You know, me thinking 41-34 is 9 when it was actually 7. Ahem.

And that idiot Hinderacker over at the Power line. A stupid lawyer who has written for major publications and been on cable news panels. I will even apologize for him, for getting you upset at the notion that perhaps Trump gave a good speech, and that his momentum might actually be building.

I also apologize to you on behalf of the idiots at LATimes, the morons over at UPI/Voter, the gang of zombies over at Rasmussen, those clowns over at Zogby, and the imbeciles at Pew... all for being so stupid to release polls showing the race as close...

They have no idea how much this upsets you. I cannot be sorry enough for their behavior.


So Sorry Roger. Clinton is the goddess. Trump sucked it up this week. What an racist sexist asswipe who's a terrible businessman, and probably also believes that 41-34=9. Nothing possibly could have gone right for him over the past couple of weeks.

What was I thinking.

Roger Amick said...

1: She's not perfect. She's not absolutely honest. But far more than your hero.
2: As I've said. Based on my 50 plus years of watching politic and a pretty good understanding of history, for the first time, I truly believe that Donald J Trump is a threat to our republic, and the world at large.

This isn't based on manipulation of my thinking process. I sincerely believe that.

Like it or not. Think I'm crazy, I'm not. He really is dangerous.

C.H. Truth said...

Roger

- I don't have a hero in this race. My observation in this case is just that: an observation. One apparently shared by a great deal of people.

- Anyone who believes either of these candidates is a "good" candidate should be tested for mental illness. Clinton has an actually history of being dangerous (literally putting American lives in danger) and has a known history of being a complete fuck up. Trump is potentially both.

- You believe a guy is everything people "tell you" he is... even when his life actions suggest differently. You are the ultimate example of the gullible. You are the reason why political shills have clout. They know they can serve up whatever sort of shit sandwich they want, and people like you will gulp it down. Gulp, Gulp, Gulp, Gulp...

Roger Amick said...

As usual, if you disagree with the all knowing CHT, you are gullible and are unable to be rational. Got it.

opie' said...

C.H. Truth said...
Sure Roger...


Sure, CH, if you believe that he's had a couple of good weeks, I'd hate to know your definition of bad!!!!

His flyover of NO was legendary he did nothing but worry in Texass. His optics were deplorable especially with all the warning we had before it hit. The latest LA floods developed over a 10 day period with no real preparations until people started fleeing for their lives. Showing up with water still rising is very counterproductive as Busch proved when he handed out water after Frances with jebby in the town south of me. He was nothing but an impediment to the clean up. Talk about shit sandwiches CH, that was it. LOL

rrb said...

He really is dangerous.
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

dangerous, huh?

question for ya -

how many americans has trump gotten killed?




hillary has four confirmed kills.





Roger Amick said...

Thanks to George W Bush, 4,486 American Soldiers died in Iraq.

Benghazi is not her fault. The blame is complicated. But that's beyond your intellectual abilities.

The man who wrote the speech given by the mother of one the four who died there, is not supporting Trump. He said that Trump is dangerous.

opie' said...

"hillary has four confirmed kills."


Sure rat and how many lives did trump ruin because of his bankruptcies and how many people passed from that trauma?????

opie' said...

I wonder how many millions of dollars does Donny have tied up from chinese banks. You know the ones, the country he plans to renegotiate terms with. Seems his week is getting worse by the minute and his wonderful week is going down the crapper. LOLOLOL

Commonsense said...

Trump is +2 in the LA Times Daily Tracking Poll.

Let's see if the other polls follow.