- Richard Nixon sweating vs John Kennedy's cool demeanor
- Ronald Reagan, there you go again moment with Jimmy Carter
- Reagan's youth and inexperience zinger with Walter Mondale
- Lloyd Bentson's "you are no Jack Kenndy" moment with Dan Quale
- Al Gore's heavy sighs with George W Buch
You might remember that people thought Obama won the debates against McCain, and that Romney won the first debate against Obama... but nothing specific really stands out. The truth is that we use debates to flush things out and sometimes a candidate can win on points, but not really move the needle in the long term (Mitt Romney).
Donald Trump went through what seemed to be about a hundred and fifty debates in the GOP primary. On points, I believe he took dead last by a wide margin in pretty much every single debate (even if you included the podiums themselves). A couple of the performances were so bad, I thought his support would collapse into negative numbers. But it never happened. In fact, the worse it looked, the better he did in follow up polling.
I guess one has to understand that a debate between political candidates is not judged by a group of debate experts, and the winner is not provided an automatic bump in the polls by a predetermined amount. Winning no points, does not guarantee you won voters. The debates are opportunity for the candidates to distinguish themselves as they see fit, not a real debate contest (or college debate champion Ted Cruz would probably be the GOP nominee and would be up by double digits in the general).
The hardest part about judging these debates is to remove your own preconceived notions and attempt to judge them without any form of "bias confirmation". In other words, if you believe that Donald Trump is dangerously unfit or that Hillary Clinton is out of touch, this debate probably reinforced that notion (for you). But did anything happen in this particular debate that was "different" than what we have seen before?
For the undecided voter, they have already been privy to much of the same information you have on these two candidates, but have failed to come up with the same hard ironclad conclusions that the partisans have. In spite of Donald Trump's actions over the course of the past several months, they still do not see him as dangerously unfit. In spite of all the scandal that has surrounded a fairly dishonest Hillary Clinton, they do not see her long track record as either disqualifying her or providing the incentive to vote for them.
What the undecided are looking for (from everything I can gather) is:
- Trump to look less "dangerous"
- Clinton to look less "establishment status quo"
So the questions must be:
- Was there anything Donald Trump did during this debate that would have convinced someone (not already convinced by his actions over the past months) that he is unfit?
- Was there anything Donald Trump did during this debate that would have convinced someone (not already convinced by his actions over the past months) that he is actually fit.
- Was there anything Hillary Clinton did during this debate that would have convinced someone (not already convinced by her long track record in politics) that she is too status quo.
- Was there anything Hillary Clinton did during this debate that would have convinced someone (not already convinced by her long track record in politics) that she can provide change.
What the public wants is a combination of both candidates. They want the Trump emotion, the Trump enthusiasm, and the Trump revolution of change, but they want the Clinton experience, the Clinton control, and the Clinton preparation.
- Can Trump deliver the control and preparation?
- Can Hillary generate the emotion and enthusiasm?
- Can Trump show that he is fit.
- Can Hillary show that she feels Americans need for change?
In spite of the overwhelming declaration of a Clinton debate win, I am not convinced that either candidate pulled off what they needed to in terms of moving voters long term. But both have opportunities in the next two debates to do just that.
53 comments:
And it's a certainty that every one of Hillary's scandals won't be completely ignored in the next two.
Otoh, Trump is unlikely to be asked again about a 40 year old lawsuit no one cares about.
a 40 year old lawsuit no one cares about.
I care about them and his lack of providing tax returns. And please, there is nothing but hubris preventing his release of his returns.
Anonymous Myballs said...
And it's a certainty that every one of Hillary's scandals won't be completely ignored in the next two.
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in the last one perhaps, but the second is definitely up for grabs with raddatz and cooper as hillary's protectors.
I don't think that he's going to be able to repress himself, and look "Presidential".
If he tries, it will look artificial, and uncomfortable. He's going to lose all three, if he even does the third one, will blame the moderator, and you will agree with him.
Roger
You have a comprehension problem understanding the difference between an observation and an opinion.
I have only offered the observation (still unchallenged)
- That the debate went well for Trump for the first third or so.
- Then he struggled as the topics drifted into Birtherism, Tax Returns, etc..
- These subjects were brought up by the moderator...
- No uncomfortable questions were asked by the moderator of Clinton...
The irony, Roger...
Is even in this post itself... I suggested that Trump came in last place in every single GOP debate I watched. I thought he was horrible in those debates.
Unlike you, I am not a brain dead cheerleader.
Do I believe Trump could have handled those questions better? Certainly. I think he seemed painfully unprepared to answer them, and way too willing to keep digging himself into the topics. He would have been much better served to have short, distinct answers, and then moved on to other topics (as a typical politician would do). He didn't.
But that still doesn't change the fact that during the first portion of the debate, when they were only addressing the issues... he was actually quite good. Surprisingly good, considering how poorly I felt he has done in previous debates.
My observation concludes that if the rest of the debate had been about your typical "issues" rather than turning the entire debate into "Donald said this, Donald did this" - that he would have probably been declared by many the winner.
Its also likely that many people tuned in fir curiosity, saw him di well early, and then turned it off not intending to watch the whole thing.
Ch, you completely overlook the fact that Clinton got in some hits that she had thought out ahead of time that were specifically designed to throw Trump off and get under his thin skin.
And it worked. She had him on the defensive, and even on the ropes much of the last 60 to 70 minutes.
And part of all that was her doing, not the moderator's doing.
And I think she'll be doing it again.
More important, she looked like she was actually enjoying herself.
He sure didn't.
And is it having an effect.
See this:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#now
Lover-ly, lover-ly.
:-)
James - it helps when the moderator picks the subjects...
I am sure that Trump would have had some zingers and Clinton would have been on the defensive if the last 45 minutes had been about email servers, the Clinton foundation, Benghazi, and her record as SOS.
In fact, most of the journalist thought it was completely unfair that Matt Lauer brought up the Emails in the CIC formum... a forum where "she" appeared on the defensive most of the time.
My observation concludes that if the rest of the debate had been about your typical "issues" rather than turning the entire debate into "Donald said this, Donald did this" - that he would have probably been declared by many the winner.
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and even considering the way the debate turned out, honest pundits are realizing that trump is probably enjoying a net gains of VOTES, not polling points, and granny the liar - not so much.
Clinton holds a 3.8% lead with just 40 days to go.
Note also, that Trump is being laughed at in all the talk shows, and like the New York Magazine and Newsweek covers, a lot of people who were undecided seem to be leaning towards Hillary, educated women especially.
Note also, that Trump is being laughed at in all the talk shows
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so the skanks on the view are laughing at trump?
you don't say.
"a lot of people who were undecided seem to be leaning towards Hillary, educated women especially."
sure they are. just because you say so. got it.
Can Trump deliver the control and preparation? No
Can Hillary generate the emotion and enthusiasm? Yes
Can Trump show that he is fit. No because he is not fit. No matter how much time his people spend with him, and try and not be himself. He will not stick to the script. Then even if he does, it will look artificial.
Can Hillary show that she feels Americans need for change? Perhaps, but that's not her theme. But she can use her together ahead theme and if she's prepared to handle that question, she will do it.
sure they are. just because you say so. got it.
That's incoherent. But I will respond to what you tried to say, but your 3rd grade skills said.
The polls, all of them, are showing that more and more women are not supporting Trump. And don't forget one fact. More women vote in national elections than men do. If he loses a majority of the female voters, he does not stand a chance.
CH, your map shows Trump leading in Florida.
Florida 43.8 43.3 Clinton +0.5Florida
One half of one percent is small, but the Cuban thing isn't going to go over well in Florida, and the women vote in Florida is also leaning more towards Clinton, and you know how important that is.
And thank you for opening up the comments. You can remove those who don't act responsible Like I do the "spit" and "plagiarism" spam from the crazy lady. I leave her other comments alone, stupid or not.
"But I will respond to what you tried to say, but your 3rd grade skills said"
Wow, you continue troll and insult CH.
Just wow.
"Like I do the "spit" and "plagiarism" spam from the crazy lady. I leave her other comments alone, stupid or not."
It's all you deserve since you turned it into the trash blog.
No i did not. I put up opinions you disagree with. But instead of writing rational responses that might stimulate a conversation, you spit. It's all you have . pathetic.
Go back to the trash blog. This blog isn't for trolling.
The polls, all of them, are showing that more and more women are not supporting Trump.
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if that were truly the case then you would be able to provide at least one example.
one thing is certain - taking your word for anything is a fool's errand.
but the Cuban thing isn't going to go over well in Florida,
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thanks for acknowledging that eichenwald wrote that throwaway piece specifically to try and help granny the liar with republican cubans in florida.
it was obvious to the rest of us the moment the piece hit, and it's refreshing to see you admit it.
cognitive dissonance aka HB
He believes that this Economy is the best in the history of the USA, she has gone as far and to tell us it is a "Booming Economy".
Yet Lapdog Yelping Yellen, refuses to raise rates where they need to be IF this was a real recovery, those rates at a minimum should be 2.5 %.
In her latest statement she again , for the third time this year downgraded the US Economy and pushed rate hike off until after the election , giving a vote of no confidence to both Obama and Hillary.
Here's why Trump (and the GOP)may be in big trouble for the next debate.
Speaking of debate preparation:
Christie May Be Put In Charge of Prepping Trump For the Next Debate
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Pres/Maps/Sep30.html#item-8
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My prediction: Another Trump disaster.
This morning I've been singing "Tiptoe Through the Tulips" while reading all the delightful stuff at electoral-vote.com.
If you Troothers go there, you'd better have your Prozac available.
Ch, how do you manage to keep your sidebar so dishonest?
Your conservative evangelistic friend over at electionprojection.com is a lot more honest than you are.
Turn in your pretenses at objectivity.
Jane again you have zero original content in any of your cut n paste bs.
you could , but can't answer the long standing questions put to you.
1, What rate would have those that are taxed too much pay?
2, How is it helping your cause that less and less blacks own their homes today then when Obama took Office?
3, Obama ran our troops out of Iraq after they secured the victory, in part because he said the US has no "status of Force agreement"... do we have that agreement in place now that 6 k troops are now calling Iraq home base again?
1, What rate would have those that are taxed too much pay?
More than the zero amount billionaire Trump paid but less than the unfair amount they are now paying.
2, How is it helping your cause that less and less blacks own their homes today then when Obama took Office?
Because blacks know whom to blame.
3, Obama ran our troops out of Iraq after they secured the victory, in part because he said the US has no "status of Force agreement"... do we have that agreement in place now that 6 k troops are now calling Iraq home base again?
No, but those who are there now are not standard "boots on the ground" engaging in combat.
You're welcome.
But I know you will now rant, and I will ignore you.
That's an interesting take CHT, basically that the candidates need to address their respective weaknesses in the debates. Maybe even conventional, but is that really happening here?
Clinton needs to convince people to stay the course - I don't think that she's all that concerned about projecting an image of a change candidate. Trump doesn't seem to care that he's not extensively preparing for the debates, or anything else. It looks to me like they're both attempting to emphasize their perceived strengths.
cognitive dissonance
2, How is it helping your cause that less and less blacks own their homes today then when Obama took Office?
Because blacks know whom to blame." James
Either you did not understand the question or you don't know the gift you just handed me with your answer.
So blacks over the last 8 years, clearly understand O'Hillary policies led to them owning less homes now, then before O'Hillary took control of this Economy. OK, I agree.
James...
I put all polls on my sidebar whether I like them or not. I am providing you with ALL the information. You can decide how to take it.
Those who choose to omit (Josh M) adjust polls (Nate S) are the ones who are being dishonest.
WP...
Your observation may be accurate in terms of how the candidates behaved. Both seem to want to play to their strength.
I would still argue that with an election where such a large number of people are voting against a candidate. It is probably the wrong strategy. Ultimately like it or not, the public is still trying to get past the negatives. The candidate who shores this up will likely win.
1, What rate would have those that are taxed too much pay?
More than the zero amount billionaire Trump paid but less than the unfair amount they are now paying."
That makes no sense at all, I asked you, which rate would you have those that you said are paying too much in taxes and you don't post a rate (s).
So, to deconstruct this further, the billionaires are paying an "unfair amount" , ok, I agree with you there too.
My map is still in line with what Silver has in the polls plus forecast
Florida (29)
Ohio (18)
Pennsylvania (20)
North Carolina (15)
Colorado (9)
Nevada (6)
Minnesota (10)
Wisconsin (10)
Michigan (16)
Iowa (6)
Virginia (13)
New Hampshire (4)
Maine (2)
Arizona (11)
Georgia (16)
These are all toss up according to RCP
Answer for us a simple question Ch:
Has Hillary noticeably benefited from the debate?
Corrected:
Blogger C.H. Truth said...
James...
I put all polls on my sidebar whether I like them or not. I am providing you with ALL the information. You can decide how to take it.
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Tell me how to take this, Ch: The fact that you day after day just happen to put the LA times poll (Trump at plus 4) at the top of your list.
Oh Lord
Has Hillary noticeably benefited from the debate, Ch?
Since Ch won't speak, let's let Gallup and the viewers speak:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/195923/clinton-debate-victory-larger-side-modern-debates.aspx?g_source=Election%202016&g_medium=lead&g_campaign=tiles
IOW, Clinton did well, did very well. :-)
73 % say Hillary's health is an issue.
Today she had another coughing fit.
“If you can’t run your own house, you can’t run The White House!” Moochelle, love it, first lady taking a dig at Hillary and bill the rapist.
This was done on purpose, there is simply no other excuse or reason for it , since it happened only to Trump.
The Commission on Presidential Debates reported on Friday that there were in fact issues with Donald Trump’s microphone at the Debate Monday evening at Hofstra university in New York.
Following the debate, Trump told the press that they “gave me a defective mic. Did you notice that? My mic was defective within the room,” CNN reports. Trump posed the question: “Was that on purpose?”
While it may be too early to call it anything other than a technical malfunction, the Commission on Presidential Debates said “there were issues regarding Donald Trump’s audio that affected the sound level in the debate hall.”
Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton responded to Trump’s claim Monday evening saying “anybody who complains about the microphone is not having a good night.”
Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2016/09/30/presidential-debates-admits-trumps-mic-was-messed-up/#ixzz4LlafIwnY
James...
I put the newest polls at the top.
LATimes is a daily tracking poll, so it's generally the newest.
You really have to explain it to him.
Slowly.
As often as he visits his hero's sites, you'd think he would know.....
Silver doesn't put the newset first. He has them by weight, which means polls he doesn't like fall down the list.
Do I think it helped Clinton?
Not as much as some who believe every thing that happens is a game changer. I don't believe the debate warrants a rearrangement of the fundamental.
The LA times is a good poll to watch for movement because they literally poll the same sample. For it to move someone has to actually change their mind. It eliminates the concept that a bad performance by a candidate would make his her supporters less likely to answer a survey.
These people agree to answer the survey every time (they can say they won't vote but they respond). So they may be less enthusiastic or disappointed... but isn't that irreverent?
All that truly matters is if they changed their mind.
Do I think it helped Clinton?
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That's okay, Ch. Roger and Nate Silver answered that question for you over on Roger's "Let's Take a Look At Nate Silver" thread.
LATimes is a daily tracking poll, so it's generally the newest.
And an outlier to boot. LOL
Rudy just declare trump the winner of the debate.. Good job rudy and now declared releasing tax returns are bad. Yep bad for whom???? God, spin worthy of CH and GW models are wrong and drudge snap poll was accurate!!!
Ch asked above:
•Can Trump deliver the control and preparation?
•Can Trump show that he is fit?
No, and no. See my OBSCENE AND NOT OBSCENE posts in the thread above.
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