Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Silver moves Nevada to Trump...

At this point, Nate Silver has North Carolina back to red meaning the Donald is now successfully defending all the states Romney won (538 now shows Georgia at +6 and Arizona at +4.8). So much for Clinton "expanding the map".

Meanwhile, Florida, Ohio, Iowa and now Nevada have been projected to flip by 538 (as well as one of the ECV in Maine). This gives Trump 266 electoral college votes to Clinton's 272.




Make no mistake, things are tightening. Silver shows Colorado closing (-2.0), New Hampshire nearly as close (-2.1), and Pennsylvania (-3.0),  Michigan (-3.4), Wisconsin (-3.5) within striking range.  He even shows Virginia (-4.1) and Minnesota (-4.4) as more competitive than either Georgia or Arizona.

If Trump can manage to hold on to the map as it is currently projected, he would only need one of those remaining states. Just one, and he would become President.

3 comments:

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Clinton has two or three ways to stop Trump.

Florida
Nevada
N.Carolina
Michigan

One of those will give her the win, if she holds onto those as it is today.

She's got five or six paths, Trump three at the most

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/20/hillary-clinton-has-lots-of-paths-to-270-electoral-votes-donald-trump-has-three/?tid=sm_fb

Commonsense said...

That sounds like an increasing anxious Clinton supporter.

C.H. Truth said...

These states are not so much moving individually, as the are moving as a whole. As Trump moves closer in the national polls, he gains ground across the board in battleground states.

There is no reason to believe this trend would not continue (for either candidate) if the national polling keeps moving one direction or the other.

So if in a month, the national polls (for instance) showed Trump up by two points or so, it would follow that North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Iowa would all move into the 3-5 point range for Trump... and he would draw close to even or slightly ahead in at least some of the states like New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Michigan, and Wisconsin.