 |
| Washington Post poll now shows dead heat. Remember a week ago when Clinton was up twelve? |
The poll offers a breakdown that approximately thirty percent of those voters (who answered that thy were less likely) are either pure independents or Democratic leaning Democrats. That means that there is roughly ten percent of the total electorate who are either Independent or Democrat leaning independents now questioning their vote for Clinton. The other quarter of the electorate (who are claiming they are reconsidering Clinton) would be Republicans or Republican leaning Independents.
This is dangerous for Clinton here folks. If a reasonable number of the Republicans and conservative independents who were questioning Trump fall back into partisan lines, and even a small percentage of neutral or left leaning independents decide to vote for Trump, Johnson, or Stein, or stay home all together, it could be "very" damaging.
This was already a quickly tightening election. This announcement further through everything into question.
92 comments:
How Clinton Plans to Deal with Comey’s October Surprise
Politico:
“In the hours after FBI Director James Comey threw a wrench into Hillary Clinton’s home-stretch plans, her campaign launched into an uncharacteristic frenzy of activity, quickly trying to turn the development into a base-energizing tool...
“Clinton’s strategists have projected a confident front, shrugging off any possible impact from Friday’s bombshell news and pointing to weeks of strong early voting and persistent polling leads, even as they blast Comey for re-injecting the email issue into the race with his cryptic letter to Congress. Their goal is now to convert Democrats’ anxiety over the FBI chief’s move into a fury and a rallying point for a base that has flirted with overconfidence in recent weeks.”
As I predicted, this may even work to her advantage.
Well James....
Looks like initial polling proves both you and the Clinton team are wrong. Not that there is a good way for the Clinton team to handle this.
They're eating their own today.
Wasn't expecting it so soon.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-do-october-surprises-move-the-polls/?ex_cid=2016-forecast
538
Trump has rocketed up to a... uh... a
21-23% chance of winning the election.
So Nate Silver thinks Trump has a 23% chance of winning. Isn't that doubled what he thought last week?
You know, when just about all of the media was calling on a Clinton coronation?
Doesn't look like it now does it?
No, 21-23% is not doubled. Last week it was around 17-19%.
Weiner’s Laptop May Include 650K Emails
“Federal agents are preparing to scour roughly 650,000 emails contained on the laptop of former Rep. Anthony Weiner to see how many relate to a prior probe of Hillary Clinton’s email use, as metadata on the device suggests there may be thousands sent to or from the private server that the Democratic nominee used while she was secretary of state,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The review will take weeks at a minimum to determine whether those messages are work-related emails between Huma Abedin, a close Clinton aide and the estranged wife of Mr. Weiner, and State Department officials; how many are duplicates of emails already reviewed by the Federal Bureau of Investigation; and whether they include either classified information or important new evidence in the Clinton email probe.”
James - Silver uses polls to determine his percentage... not his opinion. So the fact that his percentage has only moved slightly is going to be based on the fact that there hasn't exactly been much polling since this event.
That being said, I think he is going to have to rethink all of his "trending" in Hillary's favor, that he attaches to every state poll that comes out. If he were to change those "trending towards Clinton" adjustments to "trending towards Trump" adjustments, it may be a much bigger difference.
Weiner’s Laptop May Include 650K Emails
I would not like to be the one that has to look through Carlos Danger's emails.
Uk paper reporting that comey reopened because he's getting far too many resignations from very angry fbi rank and file. Most of fbi thinks Hillary should be indicted at minimum.
Uk reporting it. Not US media.
Of course. The UK media aren't bought and paid for by the Clintons.
In the age of globalism, they should have thought about that.
Reid Accuses Comey of Breaking Federal Law
Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) said that FBI Director James Comey “may have violated a federal law when he disclosed, less than two weeks before the presidential election, that his office was pursuing potential new evidence related to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server as secretary of state,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
Said Reid: “I am writing to inform you that my office has determined that these actions may violate the Hatch Act. Through your partisan actions, you may have broken the law.”
Really James, who cares about Reid's ranting anymore.
Or as Ette so succinctly said, "If you don't want the FBI to interfere with a presidential election, then don't nominate someone who is under investigation by the FBI".
Reid is a fellow pederast like the 'pastor'
Reid's statement presumes that comey s action was a political one and not a kaw enforcement one. Good luck proving that harry.
How was Jacksonville Cali?
Could have been better CS, but had a blast
UGA is not good
Del Rio is awful. Looks like y'all will win the East and be sacrificed to 'Bama
Looks like Shreveport or the Liberty bowl for us and Outback or Orlando for y'all
Reid's statement presumes that comey's action was a political one and not a law enforcement one.
Smacks of desperation doesn't it?
Of those less likely to vote for Clinton because of this, one third are neither Republican nor Republican-leaning. That's a big slice of voters potentially changing sides.
6:04 Perhaps Hatch Act supporters?
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-what-if-clinton-wins-north-carolina-and-loses-pennsylvania/?ex_cid=2016-forecast
Reid's a pederast?
Thanks for the laugh.
Not so sure the Gators got the memo about being the sacrificial lamb for anybody.
Their defense can matchup against Bama's offense. The only question is can the Gators generate enough offense to keep the D from being winded.
Should be a good game.
The best part of the day; the powderpuff football team from Tallahassee being beat by Clemson.
Commensa said: "I would not like to be the one that has to look through Carlos Danger's emails."
______________
Scared you might see something you like?
You're not really enlisting in Clinton's war against the FBI are you? Have you thought through the implications, seriously?
The head of the FBI, having scuttled his own reputation by humiliating himself nationwide, to sweep Clinton's issue away, is now under attack by Clinton as a partisan and you're buying into that? There is only one reason for Comey to send that letter informing Congress about the new evidence: he had no choice. Every alternative was worse.
I'm sure it would put a thrill up your legs James. But I think Carlos Danger is little old for your taste.
6:04 Perhaps Hatch Act supporters?
I would submit covering up the investigation would have just as much if not more effect on the election as sending the letter.
So with all things being equal, erring on the side of informing the electorate is probably the right decision.
This was something I almost posted about. This was on Drudge, and it said Clinton is in trouble. I decided to wait and see. You are predictable.
Last week, you claimed that this poll used faulty methods, and dismissed it off hand.
Today it's worthy of a main page posts. Gee, LOL
Harry's wife should have clocked him harder.
No bigger despicable liar.
"But I think Carlos Danger is little old for your taste."
Definitely.
James - Silver uses polls to determine his percentage... not his opinion.
Last week and I quote. "He is intellectually dishonest".
All I can say Roger is that if the new poll is using the same methodology as the one that showed a 12 point Clinton lead a week ago, then Clinton is in deep, deep trouble. This poll was tightening even before Comey's letter was made public.
So you have a choice Roger, either the polls methodology is flawed or Clinton is crashing and burning with a little over a week left in the election.
Your only bright spot is that early voting may have saved Clinton's ass.
But I wouldn't count on it.
The coldheartedtruth is that we simply unable to say the Comey intervention into has had effect, or was it the expected movement of Republicans to home.
We will have enough to know by Tuesday or Wednesday.
I don't see how you can conclude that the Democratic candidate response has been a good or bad strategy.
"But I wouldn't count on it."
The coldheartedtruth is that we simply unable to say the Comey intervention into has had effect, or was it the expected movement of Republicans to home.
You are ignoring the vastly superior get out the vote efforts in all of the swing states.
CS that's nt a good Georgia team, why we continually tried to run to the edge rather than trap and use the gator's speed against them I can't fathom.
Saban will make that adjustment. Your D is very good but your offense won't match the Tide's
Congressman Trey Gowdy on Senator Harry Reid:
"I did not know Mormons used drugs. Anyone capable of sending that press release has to be under the influence of something."
LOL.
And our punters SUCK
Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) slammed FBI Director James Comey over his handling of the investigation into Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, accusing Comey of applying a double standard to Clinton while letting her GOP opponent get away with breaking the law.
Reid, in a Sunday letter to Comey, accused the bureau director of “tarring Secretary Clinton with thin innuendo” when he disclosed to Congress that the FBI had found emails that may or may not impact the bureau’s decision to not charge Clinton for her handling of emails while she was secretary of state.
Comey’s decision to reveal the information with just over a week until Election Day “appears to be a clear intent to aid one political party over another,” Reid wrote.
Reid argued that Comey’s “partisan actions... may have broken the law,” citing the Hatch Act, which, however, requires someone to act with the intent of interfering with an election.
Reid also said Comey’s actions showed “a disturbing double standard for the treatment of sensitive information.” He wrote that he believes the FBI possesses “explosive information about close ties and coordination between Donald Trump, his top advisors, and the Russian government,” although he offered no proof.
The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday that there were “sharp internal disagreement over matters related to the Clintons, and how to handle those matters fairly and carefully in the middle of a national election campaign.”
Already been discussed, spammer
And it was funny watching Jimbo Fischer lose his mind last night, in a bar with a bunch of gators all wearing jorts with white reebocks or orange crocks
lol
Last week, you claimed that this poll used faulty methods, and dismissed it off hand.
Yes Roger, and I was correct. They have stated that much of their movement is not based as much on a difference in the polling as much as in a difference in their assumption as to who will vote.
In other words, the twelve point lead was base on their initial assumptions about who was and wasn't excited to vote. After actually polling people now for an additional week, it turns out that more Republicans were excited and less Democrats were excited than they originally assumed.
That's a textbook example of faulty assumption, thus a faulty poll.
"He is intellectually dishonest"
Which was a criticism of an "opinion" from Nate Silver. (You do remember that he also writes analysis).
That comment was not a criticism of his prognostication methods... although I find the manner in which he changes every poll result dubious.
Nice duck and cove.
The “flyover country” voters who are mostly dupes and bigots who morphed into a snarling mob that chose Trump as the GOP standard-bearer.
In the end, it's this CH. If he was a legitimate candidate, it wouldn't even be in doubt. But your party chose this pathological, anti-eerything American ass.
In the next week, the educated white suburbs are not going over to Trump, nor will any of the ethic groups who can't stand your anti-Clinnton hero. They are motivated, and are responding to Bernie and Michelle Obama, and the President. Who does Trump have to get out the vote, other than himself and Pence. Keep dreaming my friend.
It will be close in the popular vote, 5% or less. But he won't get PA, NC, NV FL, and CO in sufficient numbers to approach 270. He will come in second in Utah, so those ECV won't be on his side. His path, considering the early vote that you dismissed out of hand and the far superior get out the vote efforts across the swing states, Clinton will get more than 300 ICV.
Wow Roger...
I have to ask this. What is your fucking deal lately?? You know I am not a Donald Trump fan yet you continue to pretend I am. Or do you have memory problems? So you can criticize Trump all you want, and I couldn't give a rip.
Secondly, get out the vote efforts is not a subjective opinion. It's not measured in surrogates. It's a number you can actually count. So far, there are places where Clinton is doing well and places where Trump is doing well. But numbers also show that Trump has been gaining momentum in early voting (almost across the board) over the past week or so.
But one thing that almost every pundit agrees with (and is based on fairly solid polling) is that early voters are generally partisan and the most likely to vote. Early voters are not the type who tend to change their opinion either way. Likewise, those who are undecided or unexcited are not voting early. Therefor it's very unlikely that the fact that there are early voters will actually thwart last minute surprises such as these. It's why campaigns wait till the couple weeks to come up with their best shots at their opponents.
This matters.
As Americans pull into the final stretch of a presidential election that pits the two most unpopular candidates in modern history against each other, the approval rating for the president continues to soar. In fact, a new survey shows that a record high of American believe things are going well in the country.
According to a CNN/ORC poll, 54 percent of Americans view events in the nation positively – the highest level since the poll began in January 2007. Furthermore, the poll numbers show a complete flip of opinions since late July, when 54 percent of the country viewed national events negatively.
As for Obama’s own approval rating, the president now outscores Ronald Reagan’s 51 percent approval rating from the same point in 1988. Obama’s 55 percent approval rating nearly matches Bill Clinton 57 percent approval from October 2000.
Obama’s favorability among Americans has caused him to lend a hand in potential successor Hillary Clinton’s campaign for presidency.
Another reason Clinton will win.
Here's the link, dick.
http://www.americanow.com/story/politics/2016/10/28/obama-approval-rating-tops-reagans-same-point-presidencies
Plagiarized spam.
Nate Silver's now-cast, 26 minutes ago:
chance of winning
CLINTON
77.7%
TRUMP
20.3%
Sorry liar, I haven't seen that link. Unlike you and rrb I can write for myself.
Word for word, dick equals plagiarized spam, dick.
ERROR
TRUMP
22.3%
CLINTON
77.7%
TRUMP
20.3%
I guess there is a 2% chance that neither wins, huh?
I have to ask this. What is your fucking deal lately?? You know I am not a Donald Trump fan yet you continue to pretend I am. Or do you have memory problems? So you can criticize Trump all you want, and I couldn't give a rip.
I look at your posts, and almost universally, are your interpretation of the polls that show Trump is pulling ahead. It's not hard to ad 2+2=4.
When the polls are in Clinton's favor, you take your excel sheet and prove they are wrong. I'd love to see that file. I know how to use excel.
I'm not being subjective. I know who has extensive get out the vote operations and who doesn't.
Lastly with a week and 2 days to go, there will probably be more women coming out, and his threats of law suits is not going over well among women. At least not the midwestern bigots I mentioned earlier. But there aren't enough of them to win on the 8th.
=
Nope.
77.7%
22.3%
100%
It's not stolen. Sorry twit.
Plagiarized spam, dick.
Oh, real nice - calling CH a bigot and a racist.
Nice job dick.
BTW, when will you and your wife, aka misfit grifters, be getting off of my land?
BTW, when will you and your wife, aka misfit grifters, be getting off of my land?
If you really believed in that, you would be in North Dakota trying to stop that pipeline from crossing sacred land, that they were granted in 1815.
My family dates back to 1759. You are not a pure blood, so what part of you are you going to send across the Trump wall?
A friend of mine had something last night I found amusing.
He said that Mexico will pay for the wall, because Trump will give California back to Mexico.
Considering his views, it almost sounds plausible.
We've been there, also donated $250,000.
No way my family will sit back and let you friggin liberals break more treaties.
Now, get the hell off of my land.
I look at your posts, and almost universally, are your interpretation of the polls that show Trump is pulling ahead.
Sure... but looking is not reading. You would have an actual understanding if you read them.
I have stated the same thing about polling all along. There are simply different data sets. The tracking polls all show the race tight, and Trump has led at least once in the past two weeks in at least four of them. The media commissioned polls, and some others have tended to show Clinton way ahead. Others (especially on-line polls) are showing the race in the 3-6 range.
None of this is opinion or conjecture. This is fact. As much as you might like to argue with it.
I have yet to offer that any of them are more or less credible than the others. You apparently assume that by bringing up polls that don't follow what you believe, that I am arguing that they must be more relevant. When in fact I am doing no such thing.
This bears repeating, because here is another example: you simply seem dense, simple, and unable to parse anything.
If I don't like Clinton, then Trump "Must be my hero". If I offer polling that actually exists (and in fairly significant numbers) that do not show the big leads you assume Clinton has... then "I believe Trump is pulling ahead".
It's completely irrational, Roger. It's like dealing with a four year old.
"My family dates back to 1759. You are not a pure blood, so what part of you are you going to send across the Trump wall?"
Don't be stupid, of course I am.
Now get to packing, and leave us the hell alone.
"Trump will give California back to Mexico."
Fine with me.
Btw Roger....
It's a poor argument to keep bringing up my criticism of the Washington Post tracking poll (one of the few I have actually been openly critical of).
You know why?
Because I was right. The initial 12 point number was a hoax, based (by their own admission) on incorrect assumptions built in. I knew it and it has nothing to do with my personal opinion about the candidate. It was my understanding of polls, margins, statistics, etc...
"It's completely irrational, Roger. It's like dealing with a four year old."
He doesn't like you. At least that's what he said when you were gone a few months ago.
He also said that you don't like Rat or me, saying he has private conversations with you.
He's mad because he's not a contributor on this blog, but says you told him why Rat isn't, and it isn't pretty.
He's the last person I'd confide in if I were you.
Oh, and James is still trying to learn your girlfriend's name.
Google is funny.
Conservative Donald Trump just announced his bold, aggressive plan to secure the border. His points are very specific, and would turn the tide against two terms of President Barack Obama’s amnesty agenda. He is focused on the 14th amendment, which falsely grants citizenship to babies born in America of illegal aliens. He wants to change that, and also change the structure of the United States of America.
Trumps new controversial proposal intends to give the entire state of California back to the Mexican government. “In 1948 California, New Mexico and other portions of the Southwest were internationally recognized providences of Mexico. The biggest mistake we ever made was wanting those providences and declaring war on Mexico. I mean, come on, California? Get real people. We may have stolen California from Mexico, but it’s still Mexico! And I’m ready to give it back.”
Trump says when he becomes president, he will offer California and all its people back to the Mexican government. After giving it back, Trump promises he will extend the wall all the way to Oregon, sealing our borders from “illegal aliens that disguise themselves as Californians.” Proponents of the bill say it’s about time somebody did something about the never ending problem of Mexicans in California. Trump says people may freely move out of the state of California until June, 2017. After that, you’ll be declared a Mexican citizen.
And no Twit, I don't believe this satire. But ??????????????????
Loretta,
I have been corresponding with Rat for much longer than I have been corresponding with Roger. The only time we've discussed Rat in the past is when Roger comes to "tattle" on something he did. I simply stay out of it. I have the same understanding of that situation that Rat has.
The only other time I hear from Roger off the site is when he sends me link after link after link after link of political stuff from liberal sites that I never read and that I have asked repeatedly for him to stop sending. But just as it is with James, there is nothing that prevents them from doing "exactly" what it is you ask them not to.
"My family dates back to 1759."
No doubt your misfit ancestors massacred thousands of innocent Native Americans.
To be fair, Roger has talked to me about other things, such as his medical situations, which I have never revealed or said anything about. But that was prior to the election becoming so heated. Roger is one of those many Americans that is taking this election very "personal" and likely finding friction with a lot of people over it.
You are irrational.
Alzheimer's is tragic.
The victims never understand.
My girlfriend is my wife.
LOL, I know you like Rat, who couldn't.
I'm not as easy to like, so I go with it. I'm a tough old businesswoman, with zero tolerance for liberal bullshit.
With my ancestry, I wouldn't trust someone like Roger, James or Opie as far as I could throw them.
They, and the Democratic party, are anti-American, Marxists.
Follow the damn thread, misfit
For a short time, I admit likely finding friction with a lot of people over it.
But I decided that family and friends are more important than differing political views. Life is too short. As someone at a relatively early aging process, almost died twice, I came to feel more tolerant even if I think they are wrong. One of my brothers is on FB. He's far more judgemental than I am. Long story but we grew up in different families. He's different.
I don't think I ever mentioned our private conversations.
Twit, my use of Democrat underground pictures and coming out with contrary posts and a couple other reasons that are non of your damn business.
Let's go Cubs!
On to game six!!!!!!!!!!!!
Nate Silver
BETHANY HECK
OCT 27, 2016 AT 6:40 PM
Election Update: The Polls Disagree, And That’s OK
By Nate Silver
Filed under 2016 Election
Want these election updates emailed to you right when they’re published? Sign up here.
Pretty much everyone has an incentive to push the narrative that the presidential race is tightening. The television networks would like for you to keep tuning in to their horse-race coverage. Hillary Clinton’s campaign would like for you to turn out to vote, instead of getting complacent. Donald Trump’s campaign would like you to know that its candidate still has a chance.
More Politics
But what do the polls say? The race probably is tightening — but perhaps not as much as the hype on the cable networks would imply. In our polls-only forecast, Trump has narrowed Clinton’s lead in the popular vote to roughly 6 percentage points from 7 points a week ago, and his chances of winning have ticked up to 17 percent from 13 percent. In our polls-plus forecast, Trump’s chances are up to 19 percent from 16 percent. Because of the high level of uncertainty in the race, we can’t say the door is closed on a narrow Trump victory. And we’re certainly a week or two removed from the period when every poll brought good news for Clinton: Plenty of polls now show negative trend lines for her (in addition to others that show a positive trend). But the race hasn’t fundamentally changed all that much, and Clinton remains in a strong position.
The data, however, offers a lot of opportunities for cherry-picking, both because there are a lot of polls and because they don’t agree all that much with one another. That’s especially true of national polls.1 Recent national surveys show everything from a 14-percentage-point Clinton lead to a 1-point lead for Trump. On average, that works out to a Clinton lead of 5 to 6 points — but there’s a lot of variation.
"Twit, my use of Democrat underground pictures and coming out with contrary posts and a couple other reasons that are non of your damn business."
I don't give a damn about your posts, dick. You're nothing but an irrelevant, run down, pitiful joke.
""I don't think I ever mentioned our private conversations.""
" Roger AmickAugust 7, 2016 at 12:25 PM
CH is out of town. He doesn't have a high opinion of you either.
We have private conversations on the blog. As long as I put up posts that aren't from the Democratic undergound and similar stuff he has no problems with my posts on the original blog. Note that he did't give your love boy, rrb, posting on he new blog. He has a reason for that. Ask him why."
Plagiarized spam.
You are obsessed.
I posted hundreds of times. You saved that.
I didn't remember that, but you are insane. You had to have either saved it, or went through hundreds of posts looking for that.
Get help. That's an act of a nut job.
Weiner’s Laptop May Include 650K Emails
Look at all the blaming, attacking and cover up that the Progressives are doing, I love it.
So now it is the Laptop of Democrat Anthoney Weiner's that has the Emails on it, more damaging then first Reported.
just reported, according to "law enforcement officials" the FBI has obtained a search warrant to examine the emails." WP
Getting Search Warrants would be calling Hillary out on her Lies that she has given all her emails to the FBI--- And calling Huma Wiener a lying too, she said she gave all devises to the FBI in the first probe.
The thing that troubles me, is that not ONE Democrat has come out against Hillary, none, not a moral to be found in that group.
HB said this story would be over by Monday. Looking at Liberal Web sites , it is very , very far from over, and it is Monday.
Did the Hillary supporters and Hillary Spike the Ball at the 3 yard line, only to have Trump Run it back for the Touchdown?
"I didn't remember that, but you are insane. You had to have either saved it, or went through hundreds of posts looking for that."
I saved it dickhead, because I knew you'd lie about it like you always do.
Did the ONE man up and Fire Comey?
How goes the Open War by Progressives on the top Law Enforcement Agency in the USA ?
I knew you'd lie about it like you always do. "
Yep, like this one , I love it because he tells us all on here how wealthy he is, yet, a bill of $162,000 , would have completely wiped him out financially.
The total bill was $162,000. I would have been bankrupt " HB
HB I get a very hearty laugh @ U.
Thanks you never ever disappoint,,,, want to tell us how a steep drop in workers productivity year over year is just on more piece in your "booming Economy".
Your net work life has amounted to less then $162,000 , so very sad, by the way, your words not mine.
The total bill was $162,000. I would have been bankrupt " HB
From the Huffington Post, which is in full blown panic mode.
It is so fun to see, really, it is like a comedy act on that progressive steaming dung heap.
"New FBI Announcement Could Throw Wrench Into Down-Ballot Races"
Oh oh, trouble with Hillary has a down ballot drag, sweet news to be sure.
Loretta Russo said...
I saved it dickhead,
Only losers like loretta make a habit of saving posts from this obscure site. Gee, I wonder what your pathetic life is really like.....saving posts. WOW...sad use of a life. Idiot
Sniffin around me like a dog in heat.
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