Unfortunately I was tied up with Hockey pictures, which took about twice as long as suggested. I guess it turned out okay, because he was one of the hundreds of cars that got turned away (he was only four cars from getting in, but said the line behind him extended for "miles").
It was odd to hear that Trump was in Minnesota this close to the election. I guess the event in the hanger was like a rock concert. The acoustics of the location amplified the noise (and I understand that there was a lot of noise). Those who were there, called it "an experience".
None of this excitement suggests that Trump will win Minnesota, or even the election. But it does show that there is a ton of enthusiasm in his message (which is not racism and bigotry). Those who continue to brush it off as "deplorable" may wish they had shown it more respect.
In many ways, this is similar to the Tea Party movement, but it feels bigger. While the Tea Party movement may not have won the Presidency for the GOP, they certainly dominated the mid-terms. If Clinton holds on for victory, I would offer that her Party is going to be looking at a tough 2018 election cycle (as will many establishment Republicans).
8 comments:
it does show that there is a ton of enthusiasm
Enthusiasm and 2 bucks will get you a cup of coffee. LOL!!!! Yes, he has struck a chord, but I believe he also killed the GOP and any hope for running a country with civility. Be proud, CH.
Sometime crowd size doesn't matter. I remember going to the Boston Common the Friday before the election back in 1984 for a huge lunchtime rally. Must have been 50,000 people there, including Mondale. Lots of energy.
Of course, Mondale lost Massachusetts as well as 48 other states the following Tuesday.
Indy - often times, most times, crowd size doesn't matter... especially in a Presidential election.
That being said, it's remarkable that Trump would come to Minnesota and they would both be running ads in this state. We haven't seen any attention here since 2004. I know that we share a small portion of our viewing with Wisconsin (which may be more in play)... but still. We saw almost nothing the past two elections.
***Of course, Mondale lost Massachusetts as well as 48 other states the following Tuesday.***
Why I was not for Bernie.
Same thing happened to George McGovern, except that he won {only} MA.
C.H. indicates he will not hazard state by state guesses this year. I will do so, however.
First, however, a discussion on polling. There has been far less state level polling than in recent years. I don't know if this is because it has gotten more expensive to obtain samples (since landlines are no longer representative of the general populace), or the news organizations that used to fund these polls having limited funds, or some other reason. There are darn few state polls to evaluate state level voting, and worse (for relying on them) a lot of these are by outfits with little or no track record. And down the stretch, a lot of polls have had (D) or (R) sponsors, which raises the caution flag for me.
Could the polling be wrong, all over the place? Absolutely. There has been systemic polling error in some recent years. Maybe it was a sampling problem, and maybe the last-minute deciders overwhelmingly moved in the same direction. Either way, you can't predict (1) how significant the systemic error is or (2) in which direction it will be. A systemic error of 2-3% in Trump's favor (i.e. that overstates Clinton support) could yield 300+ EV for Trump. An error the other way could yield 360 EV for Clinton.
My predictions do not include a presumption of systemic error. That could be a very bad presumption, but the state polling (where it is ample) follows the national polling fairly well.
Both candidates enter tomorrow with a certain "base" of support.
For Trump, his base is 215 EV and includes Ohio, Iowa, Utah, Arizona, and Georgia. The polls would need to be well off, in Clinton's favor, for him to lose any of these States.
For Clinton, her base consists of 268 EV. It includes two close battleground states, Pennsylvania and Colorado, plus states that appeaf close but not as close as those two, like Michigan, New Mexico, and Wisconsin. If Trump can win Pennsylvania, he almost certainly wins the election. It's hard to see him losing if he carries Colorado but loses Pennsylvania.
This leaves four states - Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, and North Carolina - plus Maine's 2nd CD as the tossups. It's hard to see Trump taking any of Clinton's base states without taking at least three of these states as well, and if he can't take any of Clinton's base States he will need to take all four of these states, plus ME-02, to get to 270 EV.
In ME-02, the reason this is a tossup is the inherent difficulty in reliably polling a congressional district. Trump is clearly strong here, and I suspect he will win this district, perhaps by a greater margin than either Ohio of Iowa.
In Nevada, polling had suggested a lead for Trump, while the Democratic GOTV effort brought thousands of mostly Hispanic voters to vote early. Even before the final couple of polls suggested Clinton was even or slightly ahead, pundits were writing Nevada off for Trump. I think it will be very close, but I predict Clinton takes Nevada.
In New Hampshire the polling is all over the place, and a lot of these pollsters have been polling here for several cycles. And produced polls that were all over the place. It's a gut call, really, but I think Clinton wins here.
North Carolina is the closest state, based on the polling only. Both candidates have targeted it in the last week, and we have next to no polls indicating how effective the last-minute pushes have been. Like New Hampshire, it's a gut call, and my gut says Trump takes it (and holds all of the Romney 2012 states).
Florida is the prize of the four tossup states, with more EV than the other three states combined. I don't see Trump with a path to 270 EV without winning Florida. But I don't see him winning Florida, and this is based on the polling that shows Clinton with a tiny lead pretty much across the board, with the exception of an (R) poll or two.
So, my EV prediction is Clinton 307, Trump 231.
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