Both candidates enter tomorrow with a certain "base" of support.
For Trump, his base is 215 EV and includes Ohio, Iowa, Utah, Arizona, and Georgia. The polls would need to be well off, in Clinton's favor, for him to lose any of these States.
For Clinton, her base consists of 268 EV. It includes two close battleground states, Pennsylvania and Colorado, plus states that appear close but not as close as those two, like Michigan, New Mexico, and Wisconsin. If Trump can win Pennsylvania, he almost certainly wins the election. It's hard to see him losing if he carries Colorado but loses Pennsylvania.
This leaves four states - Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, and North Carolina - plus Maine's 2nd CD as the tossups. It's hard to see Trump taking any of Clinton's base states without taking at least three of these states as well, and if he can't take any of Clinton's base States he will need to take all four of these states, plus ME-02, to get to 270 EV.
So, my EV prediction is Clinton 307, Trump 231.
For Trump, his base is 215 EV and includes Ohio, Iowa, Utah, Arizona, and Georgia. The polls would need to be well off, in Clinton's favor, for him to lose any of these States.
For Clinton, her base consists of 268 EV. It includes two close battleground states, Pennsylvania and Colorado, plus states that appear close but not as close as those two, like Michigan, New Mexico, and Wisconsin. If Trump can win Pennsylvania, he almost certainly wins the election. It's hard to see him losing if he carries Colorado but loses Pennsylvania.
This leaves four states - Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, and North Carolina - plus Maine's 2nd CD as the tossups. It's hard to see Trump taking any of Clinton's base states without taking at least three of these states as well, and if he can't take any of Clinton's base States he will need to take all four of these states, plus ME-02, to get to 270 EV.
- In ME-02, the reason this is a tossup is the inherent difficulty in reliably polling a congressional district. Trump is clearly strong here, and I suspect he will win this district, perhaps by a greater margin than either Ohio of Iowa.
- In Nevada, polling had suggested a lead for Trump, while the Democratic GOTV effort brought thousands of mostly Hispanic voters to vote early. Even before the final couple of polls suggested Clinton was even or slightly ahead, pundits were writing Nevada off for Trump. I think it will be very close, but I predict Clinton takes Nevada.
- In New Hampshire the polling is all over the place, and a lot of these pollsters have been polling here for several cycles. And produced polls that were all over the place. It's a gut call, really, but I think Clinton wins here.
- North Carolina is the closest state, based on the polling only. Both candidates have targeted it in the last week, and we have next to no polls indicating how effective the last-minute pushes have been. Like New Hampshire, it's a gut call, and my gut says Trump takes it (and holds all of the Romney 2012 states).
- Florida is the prize of the four tossup states, with more EV than the other three states combined. I don't see Trump with a path to 270 EV without winning Florida. But I don't see him winning Florida, and this is based on the polling that shows Clinton with a tiny lead pretty much across the board, with the exception of an (R) poll or two.
So, my EV prediction is Clinton 307, Trump 231.
10 comments:
I can see that.
Pretty much like mine. But I see Clinton just might get Arizona. Long shot.
I think Trump wins CO, NC, FL, and MI.
Jmo. We'll see.
Clinton 307, Trump 231? I would agree, but everything except the polls points to a Trump win.
Isn't that like saying that everything except the facts points to a Trump win?
The Final RCP "no toss up" Map...
Just using nothing but raw state polling averages
Clinton 272
Trump 266
I don't see how that points to anything other than a close election
No. Even nate silver is now saying that the polls are less reliable than before. He's already backtracking on his prediction.
No James, it's saying that one subset of facts (the majority of nationwide polls) point to a Clinton victory, and the non-inclusive subset of those facts point to a Trump victory.
I have to say, it's really uncharacteristic for someone having strong principles to so enthusiastically support someone who abrogates basically all of them. Does that engender a psychic conflict, making logic seem to be an irritant?
C.H., the only differences between that RCP map and my predictions are Florida and Nevada, two tossup states in my view.
Trump leads in Florida on that RCP map (by less tan 0.5%) is two (R) polls showing him with leads of 3 and 4 points. The five nonpartisan polls show it between a tie and a 2-point lead.
In Nevada, the last CNN/ORC poll shows Trump up by 6, and appears to be an outlier (plus, it occurred before the Hispanic GOTV effort at the end of last week). Even with that poll in the average the state has him less than a point ahead.
It could be very close tonight, or it could be a comfortable Electoral College victory for Clinton tonight. And that's even if the polls aren't systematically biased.
Florida - between a tie and a two point lead for Clinton, I should have said.
I guess I was paying attention to the right facts, wouldn't you say James?
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