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Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Georgia 6 - I disagree with 538

Even if Ossoff finishes in the low 40s, it will be hard to rule him out in the second round provided that he still finishes in first place by a comfortable margin. But even if Ossoff finishes just a point or two shy of 50 percent, and Democrats finish with more votes than Republicans overall, he won’t have any guarantees in the runoff …

Polling and history both suggest that Ossoff would likely be about a 50-50 bet in Round 2. (link)

Nope... I firmly believe that Ossoff's best chance of winning is to garner the 50% required to avoid a runoff. Energy is still high on the left, but you get a sense that it's wading to some degree. Strike while the iron is hot is the phrase that comes to mind. Two months is a long time (the runoff would be in June), and one would guess that Ossoff would take a beating over those 60 some days as Republicans stop eating their own, and concentrate their efforts on beating the Democrat.

Donald Trump only won this district by one percent... while a popular and powerful entrenched Congressmen won by a clear landslide. But with this being an open seat, the reality is probably somewhere in the middle of the 1% Presidential victory and the 23% House victory.

While I think that the Democrats are certainly correct to look to Georgia 6 as their best chance to pick up a seat in these special elections, I think that chance is significantly better today than in June.  

29 comments:

KD, Dems WIN GA 6 in a lanslide cakewalk said...

The Three Liberal Stooges are already on the clock, they already predicted the Dem wins , outright. Landslide you know ( chortle)

opie said...

Great, when you are as good as 538, I may pay attention to you., LOL

BTW, once again the goat fucker speaks out of his ass. No time did I even hint at what he claims. Again, he brings his own reputation down the scupper of life. Oh well, chortle chortle. Idiot.

opie said...

Politics
Melanie Trump Had to Remind President Trump of National Anthem Protocol.. Forgot to put his hand over his heart, if he has one.

I recall the furor that occurred her from the right when Obama failed to salute or something, at an event. Now, melodia , the mail order foreign bride of the donnie....had to jostle the potus to put his hand over his heart, after she had done the correct thing. I recall the righteous indignation when obama forgot, and the dead silence when donnie screwed up. Hypocrites, all of you, idiots.

Myballs said...

Someone put on his grumpy pants today

Myballs said...

I agree. I read that there are 11 gop candidates. That is absurd. No wonder he's so far in front.

So far the new rnc chairwoman gets a fail from me.

Commonsense said...

I think the media hype for Ossoff will actually backfire on him as it will energize GOP voters to go to the polls in a normally low turnout special election.

KD said...

US Housing is strong, more homes are being built year over year.

Don't let the left spin this as a Trump Negative, they will try but the facts (don't get confused again Opie) are not with them.

KD, said...

Grumpy Opie, thanks for admitting you are one of the Three Liberal Stooges.

Commonsense said...

Now it turns out Ossoff doesn't live in the district so he can't even vote for himself.

Not to say anything, but carpetbagger is a swear word in Georgia.

You can't make this stuff up.

opie said...

Maybe there is hope for mother earth yet, if this WP opinion piece is correct!!!! At least the SIL and daughter have a little more sense than the deniers around here.

THE MORNING PLUM:

President Trump has reversed himself on a lot of campaign promises lately, and some have rushed to credit him with learning on the job. While one hopes he is capable of this, his reversals also reflect the less admirable factor that his original campaign agenda was mostly fraudulent — and is now colliding violently with reality.

One excellent illustration of this is Trump’s vow to pull the United States out of the Paris climate deal. And that’s why it’s good news that Trump is now seriously considering remaining in the accord, now that some of his most senior advisers are apprising him of the folly of withdrawing from it.

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The Associated Press and the New York Times report that Trump’s top advisers will huddle Tuesday to decide what to recommend to the president about the United States’ path forward. The Times notes that there is a divide among them that breaks down this way:

On the campaign trail, Mr. Trump vowed to “cancel” the climate deal, and his most politically conservative advisers, including his senior strategist Stephen K. Bannon, have pushed him to follow through. But Mr. Bannon’s influence has waned in recent weeks, while authority has risen for Mr. Trump’s daughter Ivanka and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who advocate staying in the accord.

Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson, the former chief executive of Exxon Mobil, has also spoken in favor of “keeping a seat at the table” in the climate pact, and in recent days, major corporations have stepped forward to embrace that position.

With Kushner and Ivanka Trump on the ascendant, even as the Bannon wing loses clout, the Times notes that “the side pressing the president to remain in the deal enters the pivotal meeting with the upper hand.”

opie said...

Anonymous Kd the goat fucker, said...
Grumpy Opie, thanks for admitting you are one of the Three Liberal Stooges.

You really need a new hobby, like target shooting yourself.....idiot.

KD, WInning said...

Grumpy Opium , don't blame me for what you type.

opie said...


Not to say anything, but carpetbagger is a swear word in Georgia.

He's a life long resident who is now supporting his girlfriend while she attends medical school, a noble endeavor, unlike you menstral. He also will move back to town when she is done.. I'd bet his promise is more genuine then any of trumps, like his releasing of tax returns. Idiots.

opie said...

Anonymous KD, The goat fucking liar said...
Grumpy Opium , don't blame me for what you type.

I only blame you for being stupid, I know I can't fix that and don't want to deprive the right of another idiot!

Roger Amick said...

His refusal to release his taxes couldn't have come out at a better time for the Democrat. He will squeeze through and get 51% in the popular vote.

Fellow Republicans will feel the burn.

KD, Winning Again, more work being done in Factories said...

Admitting you are part of the Three Liberal Stooges was funny.

TY


Economically the USA continues to feel the Trump Effect.


"Capacity Utilization Rate - Level Grows to % 76.1 % up from 75.7.

and up from the Lost Years .

C.H. Truth said...

He will squeeze through and get 51% in the popular vote.

Kerry, Clinton, Ossoff in a landslide!

Caliphate4vr said...

I just voted for the eventual winner Karen Handel

rrb said...

Roger Amick said...
His refusal to release his taxes couldn't have come out at a better time for the Democrat.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

proof positive that you assclowns rely on class warfare and class envy to motivate your parasite base.

and anyway, i thought ralph "strap on"maddow already released trumps taxes on MSDNC.

rrb said...

Kerry, Clinton, Ossoff in a landslide!
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

don't forget the "BOOM!!!11!" and the "DEVASTATION!!!11!"

LOL.

rrb said...



birds gotta fly, fish gotta swim, democrats gotta try and steal elections...



COBB COUNTY, Ga. - Channel 2 Action News has learned that critical voting machines were stolen just days before polls will open for a special election.

State officials are investigating after equipment was taken from a Cobb County precinct manager’s vehicle. According to Secretary of State Brian Kemp, the equipment was stolen on Saturday evening while the vehicle was parked at the Kroger on Canton Road.

Kemp’s office says Cobb County Elections waited two days to tell his office about the theft of the machines.

The four so-called ExpressPoll machines were the computers poll workers used to check-in voters, and check those off who cast ballots.

http://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/cobb-county/voting-equipment-stolen-days-before-special-election-sec-of-state-unacceptable/513453377

caliphate4vr said...

In a major foreign-policy coup for the Trump Administration, North Korea offered to unconditionally abandon its nuclear program on Monday, after Mike Pence spent several minutes angrily squinting at the nation from just across the border.

Warning North Korea that the United States had jettisoned its policy of “strategic patience” and that “all options were on the table,” Pence fixed his steely glare on the isolated Communist nation and began furiously staring it down.

After Pence spent between five and six minutes demonstrating U.S. resolve by squinting indignantly, the government in Pyongyang released a statement indicating that North Korea’s nuclear ambitions were a thing of the past.

KD, said...

He will squeeze through and get 51% in the popular vote.

Kerry, Clinton, Ossoff in a landslide!"

Yep, saw that, don't forget his Nov. 9th, 2016, Dow is dropping, the world is over, that one gave birth to Roger Krugman.

CS, wow, I looked up the CNN InfoBabe interviewing Mr 51 %, what a complete asshole, he is perfect pawn, stupid , she actually chortled at his dumb ass non response.

Indy Voter said...

Ossoff is best off if he gets 50% or more today, obviously. I'd still give him a good chance in the runoff if he is between 45% and 50%, though. If he doesn't reach 45%, he will probably need to have the other candidate in the runoff be a witch in order to win.

KD, Dems love them mooselimb killers said...

Yawn ,,,, another shooting today in the USA by a Towel Head, Three murdered. Oh , yes, he yelled alalkalla abar

Yep, just another day living with dirty Animals.

opie said...

on Monday, after Mike Pence spent several minutes angrily squinting at

Listening to pence is like watching paint dry!!!!!!

wphamilton said...

Osoff against the field isn't any easier than Ossa against one. It looks like we'll find out in June.

Commonsense said...

Ossoff blew $8 million in the most media-hyped special election in history for his "moral victory".

rrb said...

Blogger Commonsense said...
Ossoff blew $8 million in the most media-hyped special election in history for his "moral victory".
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


ya gotta love it since that's $8 mil that won't be spent on a meaningful election.

no one pisses away other people's $$$ like a liberal.