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Sunday, April 2, 2017

McConnell vs Schumer - who has the better argument?

  • Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is making the argument that voting to eliminate the filibuster would be simply allowing the Senate to go back to historical standards of requiring a simple majority to be confirmed. 
  • Senate Minority Leader  Chuck Schumer argument that a Justice is required to garner sixty votes for confirmation under Senate Rules, and that the GOP would be effectively changing that standard. 
So who is right?

The logical answer is that since several Justices have been confirmed with less than 60 votes, including Justices Alito and Thomas... that McConnell is right that the historical standard is a requirement of a simple majority.

On the flip side, there is actually no precedent for Schumer's claim that a Justice needs sixty votes or they will be filibustered and not receive a confirmation vote. While the filibuster has been a tool in the tool chest, it has never been used.

I think right and wrong at this point is pretty moot. McConnell will be able to change the rules to confirm Gorsuch without much (if any) political fallout. Schumer and the Democrats can bark at the moon, but nobody outside of the hard left will see the issue.

The problem for the Democrats is that the Justice that they plan to filibuster does not appear by any objective standards to be someone so unqualified and outside of the mainstream to justify the very first ever use of the filibuster against a USSC Justice. If Donald Trump had nominated Judge Judy and the GOP was backing him, they probably could have made the case stick with the public. Moreover, Gorsuch is a conservative replacing a conservative which effectively does not change the make up of the court. This seems like a poorly timed first ever use of the filibuster.

This is clearly a move demanded by the far left of the Democratic base. Schumer and the Democrats appear at this point not to have the courage to stand up to it. It likely hurts them long term.

45 comments:

James said...

Lindsay Graham roundly booed for saying he will vote for Trump's SCOTUS nominee.

Roger Amick said...

You should have made the same statement, when McConnell refused to even hold hearings on Obama's nominee. He to was qualified, but let's remember what McConnell said six weeks after the inauguration of Barack Obama. "Our job is to stop Obama from being reelected." Later he said that they have to stop him from being successful.

I didn't see any negative comments on McConnell.

Commonsense said...

Republicans control the agenda.

Elections have consequences.

Commonsense said...

Lindsay Graham roundly booed for saying he will vote for Trump's SCOTUS nominee.

And yet over 3/4 of the country says Gorsuch ought to be confirmed.

Don't you think there was just a little astro turfing going on.

KD said...

What the election of 2016 meant to the Liberal, nothing, it was stolen, understand that and you understand the mind of the liberal.

I want the Ried Rule used, fully, without blushing.

KD, Russians stole ObamaNomics said...

Liberals want to know a key reason you actually lost.

"Here is the complete list of average annual real GDP growth by postwar president (in descending order):

Johnson (1964-68), 5.3%
Kennedy (1961-63), 4.3%
Clinton (1993-2000), 3.9%
Reagan (1981-88), 3.5%
Carter (1977-80), 3.3%
Eisenhower (1953-60), 3.0%
(Post-WWII average: 2.9%)
Nixon (1969-74), 2.8%
Ford (1975-76), 2.6%
G. H. W. Bush (1989-92), 2.3%
G. W. Bush (2001-08), 2.1%
Truman (1946-52), 1.7%
Obama (2009-15), 1.5%"


Roger Amick said...

This is a very important question.

The President of the United States, has failed to pass his signature campaign promise.

He has to get his tax reforms passed by a deeply divided Republican party majority in the house and Senate.

He is going to be meeting with the leader of China this week.

He had a temper tantrum when during the signing ceremony of an executive order a reporter asked him about General Flynn and his newly released information that he had not disclose that he made paid speeches in China, and walked out of the oval office without signing the executive order.

He has to be prepared for the meeting with Chinese government officials,about serious trade issue.

And much more important things that the commander in chief has to deal with North Korea and it's nuclear weapons program.

He spent Saturday afternoon watching the news programs and tweeted several times about the Fake News. He called Chuck Todd a "sleepy eyed" reporter. And many other tweets regarding a half dozen other issues.

Is this the behavior of a rational person who has to be prepared to address these highly complex and potentially the use of deadly force against North Korea?

He stated that he would address this problem, with or without Chinese involvement.

I'm not trying to just make some political points. I am seriously concerned.

We all knew that he didn't have any political experience, or the complex foreign policy issues. Most of the voters knew, at least had some understanding of those facts. But for better or worse, he is the President. His lack of experience has been apparent to the public. But we need him to meet with experienced advisors. Instead he has built his staff with relatives and highly partisan, but inexperienced people.

I hope that this doesn't turn into the usual routine. We all love our country. We are the most successful democratic republic in history. But I really am concerned. Our institutions will survive. But we all should be concerned. He is not learning how to be President. He is a stubborn 70 year old man. His behavior can't be reassuring.




rrb said...

I'm not trying to just make some political points. I am seriously concerned.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

LOL. suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuure you are.

rrb said...




it looks like chuckles the schemer has been having a difficult time embracing the suck of being a powerless senate minority leader.

KD, New Organs for Abusers said...

This is a very important question"

Not really.

Tell me how goes the search for new parts for you alky ravaged inners?

Still happy that others pay your wife and your bills?

KD, Opium GDP 1 % for all of 2017, LOL said...

72 days and HB now believes something he was 100 % against, that Donald Trump Won the Election on Nov. 8th, 2016.

What website told HB to change such a core belief?

rrb said...

We all knew that he didn't have any political experience, or the complex foreign policy issues.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


so...

suddenly extensive political and foreign policy experience is a prerequisite for being president.

hmmm...

we just came off of 8 years with a president whose resume was lighter than air. a guy who "had a cup of coffee in the senate."*

a guy who, given the chance for meaningful change in iran watched it go by while iranian regime opponents were getting shot in the neck live on cnn.

a guy who lied, and lied, and lie some more to sell us a horrifying seizure of our healthcare system.

a guy who gleefully put iran on the path of becoming a nuclear power, while that same iran supplied weapons and terror to our enemies in the middle east.

a guy who left a stable libya in tatters.

a guy who bought the bullshit being peddled in egypt by the moose-limb brudderhood.

a guy who bowed to every foreign leader he met and who apologized for the US to every islamic leader on the planet.

a guy who paid billion$ in ransom to iran.

a guy who boasted of a red line in syria, right up until he needed to back up his rhetoric with action. then he folds like a k-mart lawn chair.

a guy who gifted billion$ to the UAW, while fucking bondholders in the process and claiming it was to bail out the industry when it was just to pay off his political supporters.

a guy who pissed away $817 billion on no actual 'shovel-ready' jobs.

and these are just off the cuff.

imagine what i could come up with if i were to go back in painstaking detail and review the disaster that was the entirety of the BHO regime.



*h/t: huff po's howard fineman.

and geeze rog, i'm surprised you'd skip over trump's lack of military service (i'm giving him zero credit for his ny military academy attendance). i'm old enough to remember when that was the biggest deal evah when jon francois kerry was reporting for doodie.

rrb said...



hey rog,

i just gave you another page view over at the liver transplant blog.

nice copy/paste of the la times meltdown i had read earlier via drudge.

boy, the elite intelligentsia sure are soiling themselves these days over trump, eh?

Roger Amick said...

I tried, but you don't really understand, and never will.


C.H. Truth said...

Roger - The two arguments are both based what they suggest are in line with Senate traditions.

McConnell's argument that a simple majority is all that is necessary is backed by precedent. Many Justices have been confirmed with less than 60 votes.

Schumer's argument that the filibuster suggests that Justices require 60 votes is simply not based on fact or precedent.

Likewise, there is more than enough precedent to show that late term Supreme Court openings are not filled. There have been multiple examples of these seats being left open for the new President, and Joe Biden himself offered the exact same suggestion when there was speculation that Bush 43 was going to see an election year opening.

The arguments surrounding Justice Kennedy's election year confirmation don't take into account that his nomination took place in the previous year, and that he wasn't the first person nominated to fill the position. The opening came in the third year (not final year) of that Presidency.

____


So when it comes to Senate tradition and precedent. The GOP are embracing them. Both as it pertained to election year openings and to arguing that you do not need 60 votes.

KD, We understand you Hate Trump Alky, next said...

We could ask for You to explain what you think we do not understand, but that is not what you do , you cut n paste, little to no real individual thought.

I see MoomBeam does not have enough money to pay for the Illegals and the Interlopers , so what is a GOV to do, oh yeah, raise taxes and watch even more wealthy leave CA.


Over the 8 years of the community organizers failed lost years, one state lead all others in wealth flight, CA , now that is one hell of a legacy.

Oh and the state with the most inflow, yet, Texas.

Rog you at one time believed and posted repeatedly Hillary would win in the great Mid-west States, even said at one point Kansas was in play, what happened? Did the Russians steal your vote? They did not steal mine, nor my oldest son, he voted Hillary, nor my wife that voted Trump.

This is your questions, by name what vote or votes were stolen by Putin?

Commonsense said...

I'm not trying to just make some political points. I am seriously concerned.

Well, as a Democrat you should be concern about senate democrats making themselves irrelevant by trying to filibuster the Gorsuch nomination.

And DNC chair Perez's over the top and vulgar speech Saturday night.

That's sure to wow them in the heartland.

KD, Good Moring OpiumBaked said...

The US Economy and the People that work are seeing the fruit of voting Trump.

Over then next week or so those big fat 401K, 457 b, Roth IRA, Traditional IRA, 529 college savings plans and other statements are going to be coming to those that invested and they are going to be YUGE upticks is wealth.

For the interlopers, well, nada for you.



H/t Rat for your GDP post and how poorly the magic Negro did , can you recall all the press report on how horrid "W" economy was?

Yet, when real empirical data is complied and reviewed, we find that at the bottom is the ONE.

James said...

"...and walked out of the oval office without signing the executive order."

"Is this the behavior of a rational person who has to be prepared to address these highly complex and potentially the use of deadly force against North Korea?"
_____________________

The question is not IS Trump mentally ill.
The question is HOW mentally ill he is.

Roger Amick said...

My post was me and only me.

I don't need others to think.

I have read dozens of books on history and biographies of historical figures.

Instead of referring to somebody else, like Obama. Explain why you don't care about the President, who sat and watched television and wrote tweets. Go to the link CH posted and see for yourself.

He did lose on Obama Care, because he was unable to get fellow Republicans to support the bill.

Go back to Reagan, who was able to pass his signature issues, with the Democrats in charge of both houses of congress.

I'm not trying to be ridiculous, that is easy. But the President should have been preparing himself for what could be life and death decisions.

KD, No Transplant for you Alky said...

And DNC chair Perez's over the top and vulgar speech Saturday night. "

He is a plant by Obama, he was Obama's Sec of Labor, I know , right what a joke, Labor Participation tanked under him creating more interlopers, so by liberal standards this guy rocks.

He again stated that Trump is not the US President.

James said...

"The more the GOP gets bogged down in process instead of progress, the more likely it is that their voters become disillusioned and that independent voters abandon them. Combine these ingredients with an energized Democratic base and you have all the ingredients for a disastrous midterm election in 2018 for the GOP.”
--Amy Walters

KD, Chuck Shummer losses another election with sanders and Warren said...

Jane, you see a 2018 landslide, duly noted, goes with HB's same prediction for 2018.

Thanks


Amy Walters assumed that Hillary failed to "energize" the base in 2016.

Roger Amick said...

CH, if I were a Senator, I would not support the filibuster. Yes McConnell was wrong, but that's not a good reason to filibuster Gorsuch. I have read extensively on his rulings

But let's not forget why we have under the rules of the Senate, a 60 vote majority. That was passed by the republicans in order to make it impossible for most of the nominees by Obama to get approved. Right or wrong, they should live with it.

I have read more than you, probably, on his rulings. He's not a Scalia clone. Conservative, perhaps, but he sticks to the laws, not on the politics.

KD, WInning over Cuckold Schumer , easy peasy said...

HB, I thought you said you were not trying to be ridicules, I see it just come naturally.


I want the Radicalized ObimboBot Dem Senators to Fillibuster, then I want the rules changed to the Ried Rule and then vote.

Then next time, when one of the USSC justices dies or better yet, gives up, Republicans will get another USSC Justice with a simple majority.

Done and Done.

US Economy is clocking in some very impressive numbers, Private Wealth has spiked to a Historic High.


Roger Amick said...

I watched the opening on Morning Joe.

Most of them were concerned about his mental stability.

I don't have enough true knowledge of mental illness.

I have learned over the last five years, on my own. It has been critical in the recovery process. A program that I went through five years ago, taught me how to understand the mental issues that affected my behavior. But that doesn't mean that I honestly know enough to diagnose mental illness. But.... his public behavior does not make me feel comfortable with him. Not partisanship, but I can't avoid thinking about it.

rrb said...

Instead of referring to somebody else, like Obama. Explain why you don't care about the President, who sat and watched television and wrote tweets. Go to the link CH posted and see for yourself.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

ah, so the hypocrisy is running at about 80 proof around here this morning.

for 8 long and boorish years you referred to george w. bush every single time a criticism was lodged against your dear leader. sob story after sob story about what a terrible domestic, foreign, and economic situation bho inherited from bush. nothing was ever 0linsky's fault, and every problem on the planet could be laid at the feet of W.

and speaking of watching television and tweeting, i'll bet you miss dear leader's march madness brackets. and how he never had any inside information on anything, and got virtually all of his info from the msm - according to him that is.



rrb said...

A program that I went through five years ago, taught me how to understand the mental issues that affected my behavior.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

was that the program that absolved you of all guilt and provided you with the excuse that you have a "disease?"

Loretta Russo said...

Spam by the drunkard

KD, said...

provided you with the excuse that you have a "disease?" Rat

As we all know that is what the losers tell themselves, it is a "disease", it is not, one has to buy the booze, open the can/bottle, drink , repeat and repeat.

Stopping is easy or better yet, don't be a snowflake and blame person weakness on a bottle, damn sissy.

rrb said...

But let's not forget why we have under the rules of the Senate, a 60 vote majority. That was passed by the republicans in order to make it impossible for most of the nominees by Obama to get approved.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


if you were as well read as you claim, you would know that this is not true.

Roger Amick said...

Of course I have regrets. But the critical point made by one of the therapists, also a recovering alcoholic of over twenty years, is to remain humble in recovery. I'm very happy with my life today. But if I get arrogant, I would be able to convince myself that I'm cured. I'm not. That underlies the one day at a time methodology.

Anyone who has had to deal with an alcoholic, would know that just stopping is easy is false. But my recovery is not the topic. It is the man who occupies the White House.

Our civilization is premised on the conviction that such a thing as truth exists, that it is knowable, that it is verifiable, that it exists independently of authority or popularity and that at some point, and preferably sooner rather than later, it will prevail.

Donald Trump has repeatedly told undeniable lies. But not once has admitted that he was incorrect, and instead he derides the truth. He calls the irrefutable truth, "fake". Anyone who thinks like that, should never be the President of the United States Of America.

Roger Amick said...

I was wrong, unlike the President I admit it.

Majority Leader Harry Reid, Democrats had just voted along strict party lines to change the rules of the Senate, deploying what had become known in Washington as “the nuclear option.” McConnell and his Republican colleagues were furious. Under the new rules, presidential nominees for all executive-branch position—including the Cabinet—and judicial vacancies below the Supreme Court could advance with a simple majority of 51 votes. The rules for legislation were untouched, but the 60-vote threshold for overcoming a filibuster on nearly all nominations was dead.

But the Republicans were thrilled once they gained back the Senate.

Roger Amick said...

Donald J. Trump ✔ @realDonaldTrump
An 'extremely credible source' has called my office and told me that @BarackObama's birth certificate is a fraud.
1:23 PM - 6 Aug 2012
21,299 21,299 Retweets 16,245 16,245 likes

opie said...

birth certificate is a fraud.
1:23 PM - 6 Aug 2012


From 5 January 2017 chicago tribune. Realty is not a strong suit of the R party or this slice of eden.


When a recent Economist/YouGov poll showed that 42 percent of self-identified Republicans still believe that Democratic President Barack Obama was born in Kenya, it wasn't a statistical blip or the result of a sampling error.

A significant percentage of Republicans have long been out of their minds on the long-settled matter of Obama's status as a natural-born citizen, which I won't dignify here with such words as "question" or "issue."

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/zorn/ct-polling-ignorance-facts-trump-zorn-perspec-0106-md-20170105-column.html

Roger Amick said...

Opie, not one of them could provide anything that I said was incorrect.

That is why we have the silence of the Trupetters!

opie said...

None of them ever have anything that proves anything!!!! Other than posting childish taunts, rat, pauline, loretta et al never post a cogent thought. However, they are always right,,,,,,extremely right. IMHO, you are the sole voice of reason on this little slice of heaven. I wonder at times why bother trying to convince them of anything....My guess, I enjoy their antics and how stupid people can be without a clue. Oh well seeing that in January, 42% R voters still think obama is a kenyan. That alone should scare the world.

rrb said...

Blogger Roger Amick said...
Opie, not one of them could provide anything that I said was incorrect.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

that's not the issue,. the issue is that nothing you provided matters.

inaugural crowd size?

who cares?

3 million illegal beaners voted fraudulently?

who cares?

he called MSDNC's mangina hack "sleepy eyed?'

again...

who the fuck cares?

it's almost like you're desperate for a diversion.

we lived through 8 years of your dear leader telling lies that did demonstrable harm to the nation, and you nodded along in tacit and silent approval. trump pops off on twitter about something that means nothing, and you go apeshit then collapse on your fainting couch.

i'm left to conclude that you don't want to be taken seriously, and that your newest hobby is concern trolling over insignificant bullshit.

carry on.

rrb said...

IMHO, you are the sole voice of reason on this little slice of heaven.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

so the stroke damage is severe and permanent. thought so. that's for solving that mystery.

Loretta Russo said...

"that's not the issue,. the issue is that nothing you provided matters"

Roger doesn't matter.

r

C.H. Truth said...

But let's not forget why we have under the rules of the Senate, a 60 vote majority. That was passed by the republicans in order to make it impossible for most of the nominees by Obama to get approved. Right or wrong, they should live with i

What the *&^^% are you talking about? You are just making things up now! Republicans passed an order making it impossible for most of the nominees by Obama to get approved? Seriously?

That is complete nonsense. There was no new law or rules put into place for Obama appointees. The only rule changes were done by Harry Reid.

The reality here Roger is that prior to the Obama Presidency, local Federal, circuit, and appellate Justices were recommended by the Senators from that area, and Presidents cut deals with the other Party to make sure that there was a mix of conservative and liberal Justices at the Federal and Appellate Courts.

This is why a crazy liberal Judge like Robarts could be recommended by Patty Murray and then nominated by George Bush. Certainly Bush would not have come up with those Justices on his own. It's also why the West Coast 9th Circuit Court is so entrenched with Liberal Justices... because most of the Senators making recommendations were liberal... and why some of your more conservative appellate courts come from conservative areas.

Think about it.

It was Obama who simply believed it was his right to nominate far left Justices everywhere and for every opening. It was Harry Reid who eliminated the Filibuster for these Justices, so that Obama was free to carry out his Judicial coup.

rrb said...

What the *&^^% are you talking about? You are just making things up now! Republicans passed an order making it impossible for most of the nominees by Obama to get approved? Seriously?
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

seriously.

no lesser lights than kevin drum, kos, josh marshall, media matters, and queen andrew sullivan actually believe that shit, so now you can see why he repeats it.

Commonsense said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Commonsense said...

Opie, not one of them could provide anything that I said was incorrect.

Well Roger, I think CH and Rat put that one to bed.

KD, Well, Game on, Ried Rule Time said...

What the *&^^% are you talking about? You are just making things up now! Republicans passed an order making it impossible for most of the nominees by Obama to get approved? Seriously?
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

seriously.

no lesser lights than kevin drum, kos, josh marshall, media matters, and queen andrew sullivan actually believe that shit, so now you can see why he repeats it."

Roger does not ever fair well when he "thinks for himself", sorry Alky, you just don't ever measure up to your own self promotion.

Best you stick to cunt n paste.