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Monday, May 22, 2017

Harvard Study exposes media...


I had a recent conversation with a Trump supporter I know. We talked about accomplishments and failures of the first few months. When asked point blank if he was happy with how Trump was doing, he responded that yes... he was happy with what he was doing. Some of the things he cited:

  • Neil Gorsuch
  • Firing James Comey
  • DJIA at all time highs
  • Consumer confidence rebounding
  • Jobs 
  • Renegotiation of trade deals
  • 70% drop in border crossings
  • 50% increase in ICE arrests
  • huge reduction in refugees from the middle east
  • Undoing of "job killing" environmental policies
  • Instructing prosecutors to prosecute
  • Undoing restrictions on police
  • Bombing of ISIS
  • Bombing of Syria

There were probably more, but I don't recall them off the top of my head. Overall I tend to agree with the assessment that these have all been "successes" by the Trump administration, even though they may not all be reported that way. At the very least, they are considered successes to those who voted for Donald Trump. The only negative he had was that the "wall" was not being built, but he blamed that on Congress, not Trump. When pressed on the travel ban, he attacked the courts, but pointed out that from a tangible standpoint, that they were accomplishing 90% of what they wanted to anyways.

When I asked about all the generic controversy he blew it all off as "fake news" from a media who are collectively on a mission to "bring down the President".  While he blamed the media first, and the Democrats second, he seemed "most" angry with the behavior of certain Republicans who have been anti-Trump. Number one on the hit list was John McCain, with Paul Ryan not too far behind. 


I recently read something that caught my eye on the Scott Adams blog, but this confirmed it for me. Nearly all of Donald Trumps successes are tangible actions that have brought about actual changes in the country.  Neil Gorsuch vs Merrick Garland is a significant difference. Economic numbers are tangible. Border crossing decreases (to the degree they are happening) will have significant long term effects. Reversing many of the Obama regulations will have a real impact. Changing our attitude regarding Police vs Criminals will have an impact. No question the bombing of ISIS and Syria was real actions that have real effects and consequences for everyone involved. 

On the flip side: start listing the things that are going wrong:
  • Allegations of Russian Collusion
  • Allegations of Obstruction for firing James Comey
  • Allegations of inner circle turmoil
  • Allegations of dishonesty
  • Too many leaks in too many places in the Government
  • Opinions that he tweets too much
  • Opinions that he doesn't study details 
  • Opinions that he doesn't understand how Washington works
  • Opinions that he criticizes Judges, media, FBI too much
  • Healthcare reform not passed first time
  • Wall not built
  • Travel ban still in court

Basically, with the exception of the fact that Congress (not Trump) has not funded the "wall" and did not pass Health Care reform on the first try as well as the ban being in court (which hasn't prevented the flow of refugees from those areas to be reduced to a trickle)... nearly everything negative out there about Trump has been either allegations that remain unproven, opinions about his behavior, and the overall concept that it all logically adds up to Trump being crazy and needing to be removed from office by any means possible.

"I believe everything I read"
In other words, nearly everything positive about the Trump Presidency has been a tangible action. Nearly everything negative is a media driven narrative. When you look at it from these regards, the fact that your major networks devote more time to unproven allegations, unnamed sources, and their own opinions, than they do to both tangible news and positive opinion put together... it's clear that our media is obsessed with themselves, their own opinions, and ultimately their own agenda. 

There is an old saying that it is prudent to believe only half of what you see, and none of what you hear. For liberals, who find themselves wrapped up in believing every thing they read... and even for people like me (a consumer of political information)... it would seem very odd that there are people out there that see the Trump Presidency as a major success.

There is a good argument to make that they are the ones who see things clearly... while those wrapped up in the wall to wall media barrage are willingly being misinformed and ultimately being played for fools.

Note: Our friendly liberals will prove this point by cutting and pasting media articles citing opinions, unnamed sources, and otherwise unproven allegations in the comment section of this post... without having the first clue the irony of it all. 
  

70 comments:

opie said...

Heard about that study yesterday and wondered how long it would take our esteemed host to post it in support of his own bias. Dayum. less than 18 hours to jump on the MSM bashing bandwagon. I guess the fact that trump is the one creating the news daily, it seems according to CH, everyone should just stop covering it. Way to go CH, your transition to complete hack is now complete; LOLOL

Loretta Russo said...

"Our friendly liberals will prove this point by cutting and pasting media articles citing opinions, unnamed sources, and otherwise unproven allegations in the comment section of this post... without having the first clue the irony of it all. "

HA!

The spammers will be here shortly.

In the meantime, we have Opie.....

opie said...

This is too funny not to share, CH.... Maybe donny's got lady troubles at home. Oh well, dayum media counts this as negative article, which is true. Maybe he should lecture the little women about protocol to avoid future shitty coverage which again is self inflicted and reported. Oh well the beat goes on.. BTW, coverage by the right leaning NY daily news. LOLOL


The honeymoon is over on President Trump’s foreign trip.

First Lady Melania Trump refused to hold her husband’s hand and then slapped it away as they arrived in Israel as part of the President’s first travels abroad in office.

News cameras captured the cold gesture as the couple walked down the tarmac at a Tel Aviv airport to kick off Trump’s two-day trip in the Jewish holy land.

All smiles in Tel Aviv.
All smiles in Tel Aviv. (AMIR COHEN/REUTERS)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu greeted the couple at the airport before they visited the Western Wall with Trump’s daughter Ivanka and her husband Jared Kushner.

The tarmac slap now joins Melania Trump’s inauguration scowl and her National Anthem nudge as silent moments that said everything one needs to know about America’s first couple.

opie said...

Loretta the fucking cunt posted.

HA!

The spammers will be here shortly.

In the meantime, we have Opie.....

Asshole!!

Loretta Russo said...

Spam by the fat troll.

opie said...

Loretta cunt breath Russo said...
Spam by the fat troll.
May 22, 2017 at 10:36 AM
Blogger Loretta Russo said...
You forgot LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL
May 22, 2017 at 10:36 AM

Yep, the dumbing down of America continues with loretta the troll adding her special version of stupid Idiot

opie said...

Getting swampy down there Loretta?????

Loretta Russo said...

You forgot LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL

C.H. Truth said...

When you challenge the left to comment without using C&P - you end up with pretty much zero conversation.

wphamilton said...

" Nearly all of Donald Trumps successes are tangible actions that have brought about actual changes in the country."

Sure as heck, not from your list that your "Trump Supporter" liked.

Almost NONE of that list is a result of tangible actions by Trump, and those that are, aren't what your talking points would seem.

Neil Gorsuch, you get.

Firing James Comey - totally botched.

DJIA, nothing Trump did, same for consumer confidence, jobs etc.

Trade deals, Trump hasn't negotiated any unless you count the arms deal with the Saudies.

Yeh, he ordered a symbolic bombing in Syria that didn't accomplish anything, and your voter liked that. I'll give you that one also.

And on down the line, either nothing Trump did, or no different than before, or a figment of false claim. But the weird thing about this is, you claim this one low-information citizen to represent everyone who voted for Trump.

C.H. Truth said...

WP... missing the point.

I would offer that those things are all "subjective" as to whether they are good or bad. I would also offer that things like consumer confidence and markets can only be tied to the President as a matter of opinion.

But they are all known things that have actually happened, that have a true impact on our lives. The DJIA going up helps my 401K and other investments. Consumer confidence helps the economy. Neil Gorsuch will have an impact. etc... etc... etc...

The negatives are conspiracy theories, opinions, and alleged "stories" about "chaos" that otherwise doesn't appear to hamper the list of former things that have been accomplished.

The opinions from people who think Donald Trump is crazy does not impact me at all... as I am not predisposed to believe someone who has accomplished everything Donald Trump has accomplished is "crazy". Crazy people don't tend to be highly successful business people, reality television stars, and get themselves elected President of the United States. Crazy people tend to end up homeless, jobless, etc...

____

Btw... the person I know is someone I work with. A highly respected family person who works in my field (tech) and is probably one of the smartest and most informed person I know...

You show your own bias by immediately assuming he would be some sort of low information low intelligence person.

In fact, nearly all my personal friends who voted for Donald Trump are highly successful, highly intelligent people. I wouldn't consider any one of them to be "low information voters".

But your stereotype is duly noted.

wphamilton said...

No bias, he's low-information if he thinks that Trump has negotiated trade treaties, has pulled the DJIA average up through tangible action, or that that Trump's target for refugees is lower than before. Just to mention a few at random.

Basic facts, and when someone gets them wrong they show their own level of knowledge, or lack. Regardless of how smart they are, or my stereotypes, or however you want to portray other people.

wphamilton said...

And BTW, I made no representation subjective or otherwise on whether these alleged accomplishments were "good or bad". I wrote that they were factually incorrect, without value judgments.

You're letting your own stereotypes lead your argument.

Management said...

Ette, please only feed your personal troll one scoop of ice cream.

Thanks, MGT

opie said...

C.H. Truth said...
When you challenge the left to comment without using C&P - you end up with pretty much zero conversation.

So you approve of loretta's spam comments, since that is the total of her posts. Yes, they to pretty much add up to zero. BTW, your thread starts with a C&P, hypocrite. LOLOL

C.H. Truth said...

WP...

I can look at the DJIA and see that it is up.
I can go look at consumer confidence and see that it is up.
I can look at the USSC website that Neil Gorsuch is now a member of the USSC
I can verify that James Comey is no longer FBI director.
I can read the actual EO on things like environmental and policing policies
Nobody questions that we actually bombed ISIS and Syria

Those are actual verifiable events. The only opinion is whether they are good or bad. They are... to use an analogy, the actual win loss record of the administration in terms of actual "game play".

______

On your list of negatives... you have a slew of allegations, unnamed sources making unfounded claims of Donald Trump yelling at televisions. You have alleged claims about inner circle "chaos" and the like. You have people saying the President is Crazy. You have people arguing that he broke the law (some argued it before he even became President). You have opinions about his behavior.

______

The first list is made up of legitimate news that can be verified as real and will have a real impact on people's lives. (Good bad or indifferent).

The second list is National inquirer stuff and opinions... While all that speculation, all those unnamed sources, and all that amateur psychology may keep you up at night and keep your undies in a bundle.

My life isn't changed one bit by the President tweeting at 2:00 AM, whether or not he is getting along with his Chief of Staff today, or if the former Director of the FBI is upset he was fired. My life is certainly not changed because someone at the Washington post thinks he is crazy, some pundit doesn't like his demeanor, or because some people believe there is Russian collusion.

opie said...


Sure as heck, not from your list that your "Trump Supporter" liked

Good post WP. All those successes are what trump and company claim. He took credit for that sale to Saudi.....that deal has been in the works for years and required approval by the prior state department. Those jobs he prevented from leaving, again, CH right wing propaganda. Building plant here take years to plan....As you pointed out, low information voters eat that crap up and have no clue to the veracity of the claim, but adore the donnie no matter what!!!!

opie said...

you have a slew of allegations, unnamed sources making unfounded

Yep and the WH does not deny the comments about comey or he said comey was nutz....Kinda like you CH, wouldn't want your panties wadded up like loretta the spammer. Not, no C&P here other than your words. Wanna lecture me on decorum or my opinions that I post????? LOL

Loretta Russo said...

Well said.

Loretta Russo said...

You're a fat troll, your opinions don't count.

opie said...

Those are actual verifiable events.

And as WP pointed out, complete circle jerks with you as the pivot man!!! BTW, Obama doubled the Dow, reduced unemployment which was more than busch did when he left and gave donnie a running start which you seem to give him credit for. Yep, that donnie inserted a worm in your brain.

opie said...

Loretta Russo said...
You're a fat troll, your opinions don't count.

Whatever you say, cunt breath. Now do something useful with your big mouth and fellate your marine. Idiot.

rrb said...

Blogger C.H. Truth said...
When you challenge the left to comment without using C&P - you end up with pretty much zero conversation.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


in opie's case i'm starting to think his parent's put the swing set too close to the house.

opie said...

Elections have consequences. Hope all those in PA and OH who voted for donnie have relatives they can move in with as donnie screws his base but good..... Good for them they are just low information voters anyway and are just a bunch of parasites...Wonder how well they will sleep as there live unfold right in front of their eyes......


Analysis
Trump’s plans to cut food stamps could hit his supporters hardest

There is growing anticipation that the budget to be unveiled Tuesday could incorporate proposals which would eliminate or curtail waivers to adults who live in areas where few jobs are available.

opie said...

Rat hole opined like loretta.... how sad. LOL


in pie's case i'm starting to think his parent's put the swing set too close to the house.

I'm in my summer cabin in the georgia mountains....what do you have a double wide and a Yugo????? Idiot.

opie said...

And trump fiddles as the arctic melts

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/22/opinion/paris-agreement-climate-china-india.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-left-region&region=opinion-c-col-left-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-left-region&_r=0

Until recently, China and India have been cast as obstacles, at the very least reluctant conscripts, in the battle against climate change. That reputation looks very much out-of-date now that both countries have greatly accelerated their investments in cost-effective renewable energy sources — and reduced their reliance on fossil fuels. It’s America — Donald Trump’s America — that now looks like the laggard.

According to research released last week at a United Nations climate meeting in Germany, China and India should easily exceed the targets they set for themselves in the 2015 Paris Agreement signed by more than 190 countries. China’s emissions of carbon dioxide appear to have peaked more than 10 years sooner than its government had said they would. And India is now expected to obtain 40 percent of its electricity from non-fossil fuel sources by 2022, eight years ahead of schedule.

Every one of the Paris signatories will have to reduce emissions to ward off the worst consequences of global warming — devastating droughts, melting glaciers and unstoppable sea level rise. But the tangible progress by the world’s number one producer of greenhouse gases (China) and its number three (India) are astonishing nonetheless, and worth celebrating.

Loretta Russo said...

Opie seems to be a bit angry today.

Myballs said...

Ice melts in May you horse's ass

rrb said...


I'm in my summer cabin in the georgia mountains...
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


good for you.

now all you need is a length of rope, a tree limb strong enough to support your fat ass, and a stool.

james said...

FACTS:

Realclearpolitics shows Trump's approval at an all
time low.

Many Republicas, including members of his inner circle, are getting ever more worried. :-)

opie said...

Rat hole commented like the ass we know he is said.....

now all you need is a length of rope, a tree limb strong enough to support your fat ass, and a stool.

And all you need to do is hit the lottery to have any hope of retiring before age 75. Angie drop out!!! LOLOLOL

james said...

politicalwire.com
Did Trump just confirm he got intel from Israel?

Talk about stupid. Bibi must be shaking his head.

opie said...

Yep James, some R's with brains are turning on donnie.....wait till he drops the budget by what he threatens to do. Who needs medicare when they can just go to the ER and get treated on our nickel. Eat, fuck em. let them grow their own food or starve. But our intrepid trio of idiots think he's doing a great job and is creating jobs and wealth for all. LOLOLOL

opie said...

Talk about stupid. Bibi must be shaking his head.

But melodia looked stunning!!!!!!

Loretta Russo said...

Spam by the pedo

Myballs said...

Bibi smiled more in one day with Trump than eight years with barack hussein.

Loretta Russo said...

BFD pedo

Loretta Russo said...

"a tree limb strong enough to support your fat ass,"

No such tree limb exists.

rrb said...



Netanyahu on potential for peace:

"It won't be simple but for 1st time in many yrs & 1st time in my lifetime I see a real hope for change."


LOL. "hope for change" ZING!

0linsky had better put some ice on that.

Loretta Russo said...

Last I checked, Israelis overwhelmingly approve of Trump.

Try again pedo.

Loretta Russo said...

"LOL. "hope for change" ZING!

0linsky had better put some ice on that."

LOL!

Obama's watching his dreams go up in smoke.

He'll always have Iran.....

Loretta Russo said...

You forgot LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL

opie said...

Loretta Russo said...
Last I checked, Israelis overwhelmingly approve of Trump.

SO FUCKING WHAT? Do they vote here illegally like donnie has said????? IDIOT

Loretta Russo said...

You forgot LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL

KD, WP is funny said...

He'll always have Iran....."

Yep, an NUKE's that is the great gift Obama gave to Iran and the The $1.7 billion in Cash to fund it and the killing of US Citizens.

BIBI said it was a horrible deal Obama made, the libs however loved the deal.

opie said...

Loretta's ass breath Russo said...
"a tree limb strong enough to support your fat ass,"
No such tree limb exists.
Loretta Russo said...
Last I checked, Israelis overwhelmingly approve of Trump.

Try again pedo.
Loretta Russo said...
You forgot LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL

Went on line loretta to see if there was industrial strength douche you could us. Alas, hasn't been invented yet.

KD, Economy of Lost Years are over said...

Opie, calm down, really, attempt to control your little girl emotions.

Yes, we care what Israel and their Leadership thinks of the USA.

Unlike the Lost Years we don't treat BIBI like a step n fetch.

opie said...

Should have checked this site Loretta

http://hamodia.com/2017/05/18/poll-dramatic-shift-israeli-perceptions-president-trump/

YERUSHALAYIM - Perceptions of President Donald Trump in Israel have shifted dramatically downward since he took office in January, according to a poll published on Thursday.

Seems james got it correct and you just made up shit again.

KD, said...

What we have learned/witness without the US Demstream Media filters is that the Muslim Nations respect and are working with President Trump.

Imagine if the left would do the same here at home.

I know, never happen they are too far over the cliff to be pulled back up.

opie said...

KD the goat fucker said...
.
Opie, calm down, really, attempt to control your little girl emotions.

Go fuck yourself, asshole. LEO degree is in astrology KD. Very impressive. LOLOLOL

KD, said...

Law Enforcement Command Officers Degree, god, do we have to educate you on everything.


I see you are truly incapable of calming yourself, I hope you run into some boys in blue some day and act up. (((smiles)))

KD, Funny Feckless Five - Jane, Opium, Alky, NosoIndy and WP said...

Opie's link, yes I read it.

"YERUSHALAYIM - Perceptions of President Donald Trump in Israel have shifted dramatically downward since he took office in January, according to a poll published on Thursday.

Whereas on January 11, 79 percent of Israelis said they found Trump more pro-Israeli than pro-Palestinian, now only 56 percent of those questioned said they thought so, according to a Smith Research poll commissioned by The Jerusalem Post.

However, researchers noted that those who changed their minds about Mr. Trump do not now think he is more pro-Palestinian. Rather, they assessed the president’s attitude as either neutral or unclear. Only 4 percent say he is more pro-Palestinian, up from 3 percent in January.

Perceptions of the president was also measured visa vis party affiliation. They found that Likud constituents tend to see Trump as pro-Israel, whereas Yesh Atid voters were the least inclined to think so."

Little Girl Emotions Opie, did you post the correct link?

Or did you think no one would cut n paste your link to read what you so called evidence of not only your position but that of Jane's.

Loretta Russo said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Loretta Russo said...

"Opie's link, yes I read it."

So it's nothing to do with approval rating.....

KD, Trump Winning Bigly on Trip said...

No, but it has everything to do with the Feckless Five being so wrong so often it is the running joke on CHT.


Wp today said the spike in across the board good economic news , has nothing to do with President Trump. That is funny. Why is it that during the lost years, Beta-boy-Bimbo could not have these kinds of economic outcomes.

Like this one, Unemployment Hits 28 year low.

Myballs said...

I invite everyone to go to the website hamodia.com. everh headline id positive toward trump. Lol

KD, Bibi is not let in the front door, unlike during the Beta-boy Barrack years said...

"Six of these eight metrics show that Americans are demonstrably worse off in November 2016 than they were in January 2009, when President Obama was inaugurated."

The lost years.

Don't take my word for it, let's look at what this black flaming liberal said.

"Tavis Smiley: Black Americans Have 'Lost Ground' Under Obama ...



www.huffingtonpost.com/.../tavis-smiley-obama-black-wealth_us_569820dbe4b0ce4...



Jan 15, 2016 - “Black folk, in the era of Obama, have lost ground in every major economic category.”. ... Eight years into Barack Obama’s presidency, Tavis Smiley is not so optimistic about the first black president’s legacy on racial issues. ... “Sadly — and it pains me to say this — over ..."

Note my citation is from HuffPo

KD. said...

Myballs, you are so right, it is amazing how Opium and his ilk walk into shit, when they post things here, wanting us to read their link and it turns out to bite them in their collective Feckless Five asses.

Priceless.

According to the Feckless Five, President Trump Economic Surge is something Beta-Boy Barrack "could have done", but facts are he failed to actually "do them".

Leaving the black "folks" far far worse off then under any other modern day president, color matters, yes we can.

james said...

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/health-insurers-plan-higher-premiums-as-exasperation-with-trump-grows/ar-BBBpdTl?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp

Health care. Trump owns it now and will be blamed for what happens.

wphamilton said...

Those are actual verifiable events. The only opinion is whether they are good or bad

Nope. Your opinion is that Trump had anything to do with it.Which would be an non-fact based opinion.

Funny, years past you'd been railing about people attributing successes to a President for no other reason than correlation with the time frame. And now ... you're all in for it. Trump was President, therefore the "verifiable event" of the DJIA rising must be Trump's Triumph, per you.

And you want to ignore the verifiably false claims in your list, such as negotiating trade deals and reducing the numbers of refugees, to name only two.

Loretta Russo said...

"Here's who wins with the new US-China trade deals
The trade deals struck between the U.S. and China could benefit many important companies and industries.
Many said they are disappointed that the 100-day plan missed larger issues such as overcapacity, forced technology transfer and equal treatment of U.S. companies."

"Far fewer refugees entering US despite travel ban setbacks"

wphamilton said...

US on track to match the 2016 number of refugees, the highest of all Obama years http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/01/20/u-s-on-track-to-reach-obama-administrations-goal-of-resettling-110000-refugees-this-year/

One third of the refugees entering this year have been from the six countries of Trump's intended travel ban.

opie said...

Anonymous Myballs said...
I invite everyone to go to the website hamodia.com

And I dare you to develop a brain. LOL

C.H. Truth said...

Nope. Your opinion is that Trump had anything to do with it.Which would be an non-fact based opinion.

He won the election, and the stock market and consumer confidence immediately went up. Nobody but you seems to believe it was a coincidence.

Odd how you see no correlation there...

But then want to argue that you can make a criminal case by means of establishing a motive without the evidence of an actual crime.

C.H. Truth said...

btw, WP... you didn't really read the Pew article you posted did you?

The report is in regards to Q1 of 2017 (which is actually Oct-Dec 2016) or before Trump took office. They actually report no numbers on second quarter (which would be Jan-March 2017).

So the headline doesn't prove what you are attempting to prove (which I guess would be that there has not been a disruption of flow). The only numbers I have seen are in regards to Somalians coming in Minnesota (where we get about 40% of the overall influx). The first three months have been a fraction of what we had been getting.

To be clear... I have no idea where my buddy got his numbers. Could be the same source or it could be that he did more research (he is a research sort of guy).

What the Pew Article did point out, however...

The policies of the incoming Trump administration may affect the flow of refugees into the U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has said he backs “extreme vetting” and an ideological screening test for people entering the U.S. from countries like Syria and Iraq where the Islamic militant group ISIS is known to operate. Depending on what, if any, actions are taken to vet asylum seekers, the volume of refugees accepted from certain countries may lag behind the numbers admitted by the Obama administration.

wphamilton said...

CH, Something like 2,600 from the six countries through March 15, after slowing to a trickle for a month. Then the State Department doubled the amount of refugees to 900 per week.

The plan under Trump's March 6 Executive order caps refugees at 50,000 which of course is less than the highest of any Obama years, but not much different than most years. The cap was reverted btw, by court order.

Halfway through the fiscal year, which does include the last few months of Obama, we've taken 39,000 refugees. An average number of them since 2002. In fact, in 2011 (Obama) we took in only 56,000, and 58,000 in 2012

wphamilton said...

He won the election, and the stock market and consumer confidence immediately went up. Nobody but you seems to believe it was a coincidence.

Nobody but you, and your co-worker evidently, believes that correlation equals causation. I guess you think that the business owners and managers, whose success fuels stock market gains, "didn't build that" after all. The President did - he's the President, it must be his doing!

Whatever happened to the "lagging economic indicators" that you used to write about?

C.H. Truth said...

Nobody but you, and your co-worker evidently, believes that correlation equals causation

I think we both know that is not true. Nearly everyone in the business community correlated the market and confidence numbers going up... to the election.

While most economist believe that GDP, Jobs, etc... are lagging indicators of previous policies... as we both know, the market and confidence are reactionary measurements.

There are also times where an event or policy (tax rebate, a new generous depreciation rule, or capital gains decrease) can have an immediate effect on both GDP and the Job market. Sometimes businesses just feel like "now" is a good time to invest.

C.H. Truth said...

Bottom line, WP... is you can argue with me till you are blue in the face that these Trump fans are "wrong" for believing what they believe...

But every single Trump person I know (and I know quite a few) still support him. While they all hold differing views on how well he is doing, they all prefer today's reality to what could have been... and to a person, they believe nearly all of the nonsense is a media driven attempt to take him down.

I personally didn't vote for Trump (or Clinton). But I am much closer today to a "supporter" than I was during the campaign. Quite honestly, much of that is my own personal negative reaction to the media and Democrat attacks. If it's possible for an arrogant and obnoxious multi-billionaire reality television show real estate mogul with bad hair to become a martyr... the media and the Democrats are making a pretty good attempt to make me feel bad for him.

wphamilton said...

I think we both know that is not true. Nearly everyone in the business community correlated the market and confidence numbers going up... to the election.

No they don't - almost no one believes that. I wrote here before the election, and you agreed with me, that there would be a Trump bump because there always is. Stock investors hate uncertainty, and this election was an uncertain as they come. You also agreed that any post-election rally is meaningless, since they always are. You lectured Roger about it, when he was selling in the run-up to the vote (the greatest uncertainty).

If you're thinking that the post-election rally fed the continuing bull market, that's bubble-thinking that ignores economic reality. If you want to analyze why the market is rising, look at economic indicators. If you can identify which of them are currently factoring into investor optimism, then you might examine how specific actions or policies of the President has aided them. I don't see much of Trump in any of them. A broad impression of "business-friendly" government might factor into consumer confidence, but if so it's only a small bump and without many tangible actions to justify it.

You'd best abandon the notion that the DJIA is rising because of some magical connection with Trump. It might continue - bubbles are fun after all - but you'll be in danger of missing changes actual economic conditions and lose your shirt. Surely you've been through this before, so why are you abandoning cold objective logic at this stage?