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Monday, May 15, 2017

RCP 2018 Senate Simulations...

Sean Trende & David Byler from Real Clear Politics have created another nice interactive tool for the upcoming 2018 Senate Races. It allows you to make a determination as to which seats are considered safe (or unsafe) as well as taking into consideration the Presidents Job approval.

Using the current rankings from Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball to determine "safe seats" and using the RCP average of 41.1% for the President's approval rating, the 10000 simulations came up with this:


As you can see, according to the chart, the chances of the Democrats taking back the Senate is less than one percent, and requires that the Democrats win every single race that is not rated safe. 

Sabato currently shows the following states as unsafe:
  • Three toss up states: Donnelly (D) IN, McCaskill (D) MO, Heitkamp (D) ND
  • Seven Leans: Flake (R) AZ, Heller (R) NV, Tester (D) MT, Baldwin (D) WI, Brown (D) OH, Manchin (D) WV, Nelson (D) FL
  • Six Likely: Cruz (R) TX, Klobuchar (D) MN, Stabenow (D) MI, Casey (D) PA, Kaine (D) VI, Menendez (D) NJ 
So the Democrats would have to win all three toss ups, all seven races that are leaning, and then would have to win Ted Cruz's seat in Texas (a Seat that many other projectionists rate as safe). I would offer that 0.7 percent is probably generous, as there are other factors (direction of the country, consumer confidence, etc) that will also play heavily into the mix come next November. Short of an economic collapse over the next year or so, it seems unlikely that the field would change so much as to make Ted Cruz and other Republicans rated as safe as suddenly vulnerable.

52 comments:

Commonsense said...

Manchin may run as a Republican by the time 2018 rolls around.

He's in a party that's increasingly hostile to his values and is representing a state that is increasingly hostile to Democrats.

KD, Lizbo Warren will NOT run for WH in 2020, another one bites the dust said...

Housing Market Index


Released On 5/15/2017 10:00:00 AM For May, 2017

Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Housing Market Index 68 68 65 to 69 70



Highlights
New home sales have been one of this year's best surprises and home builders are reporting strong activity this month and see even better times ahead. The housing market index topped expectations in May, rising 2 points to 70. Current sales are also up 2 points to 76 with 6-month sales up 4 points to a very strong 79. And traffic, in a key reading, is at 51 and over breakeven 50 for the 5th time in the last six months. The West leads the regions with a 3-month composite score of 80 with the Northeast trailing at 50.

Even though traffic is nearly 30 points behind sales, it is still the highlight of the report. This is its best run by far of the expansion and offers a hopeful hint that first-time buyers, who have been priced out of the new home market, may begin to be a factor. Today's report is a plus heading into tomorrow's housing starts report where similar strength is expected."

Alky told us that housing in the US was tanking along with the US Stock market that closed at record highs today.

I hope none of you invest like alky.

opie said...

Highlights....CH in full panic mode and finally seeing the light that trump could cause a senate loss and congress loss if things continue. He choose the easier senate to comment on since Sabato did most of the work for him.....all he did was naively editorialize to make himself feel better. Seems polls are now back in vogue since theses display a bias favorable to the right. Way to go!!!!!

KD, US Stocks Trump Effect ON Yuge Earnings said...

IF things continue" the oDopie

Like you were going to win it all in 2016 (insert latest excuse).

Like you had the Special Election in Kansas going your way and flipping that seat to the Dems, right?

When you wish so hard you really do hope to be right at least once , dumpy oDopie.

Roger Amick said...

Trump revealed highly classified information to Russian foreign minister and ambassador.

President Trump revealed highly classified information to the Russian foreign minister and ambassador in a White House meeting last week, according to current and former U.S. officials, who said Trump’s disclosures jeopardized a critical source of intelligence on the Islamic State.

The information the president relayed had been provided by a U.S. partner through an intelligence-sharing arrangement considered so sensitive that details have been withheld from allies and tightly restricted even within the U.S. government, officials said.

The partner had not given the United States permission to share the material with Russia, and officials said Trump’s decision to do so endangers cooperation from an ally that has access to the inner workings of the Islamic State. After Trump’s meeting, senior White House officials took steps to contain the damage, placing calls to the CIA and the National Security Agency.

[Political chaos in Washington is a return on investment in Moscow]

“This is code-word information,” said a U.S. official familiar with the matter, using terminology that refers to one of the highest classification levels used by American spy agencies. Trump “revealed more information to the Russian ambassador than we have shared with our own allies.”

Roger Amick said...

The revelation comes as the president faces rising legal and political pressure on multiple Russia-related fronts. Last week, he fired FBI Director James B. Comey in the midst of a bureau investigation into possible links between the Trump campaign and Moscow. Trump’s subsequent admission that his decision was driven by “this Russia thing” was seen by critics as attempted obstruction of justice.

One day after dismissing Comey, Trump welcomed Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Ambassador Sergey Kislyak — a key figure in earlier Russia controversies — into the Oval Office. It was during that meeting, officials said, that Trump went off script and began describing details of an Islamic State terrorist threat related to the use of laptop computers on aircraft.

He is so far over his fucking head that even the Republicans. McMaster is claiming the story is false. He would not take questions.

Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump May 12

The Fake Media is working overtime today!
19,868 replies 19,576 retweets 74,989 likes
Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump May 12

Again, the story that there was collusion between the Russians & Trump campaign was fabricated by Dems as an excuse for losing the election.
21,179 replies 17,605 retweets 72,536 likes
Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump May 11

Yesterday, on the same day- I had meetings with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and the FM of Ukraine, Pavlo Klimkin.

@impeachment

wphamilton said...

You could have quoted me from a week or two ago for the same conclusion, BUT not being a pollster I'm free to invoke other factors. If Trump screws up bad enough and often enough, and you know he will, the dynamic can change.

This weird meeting at the White House with the Russians for example, where he gifted the Russian state propaganda with exclusive coverage and gifted Russian intelligence with information so classified that even our allies weren't clued in. That kind of egocentric stupidity, incidents building up over time, reaches a political tipping point somewhere.

Commonsense said...

The Russian already knew about the laptop threat. That was the "classified information" that was discussed.

And it's so classified that it's been in the public domain for ever since the federal government started banning laptops on flights to the US.

Loretta Russo said...

Spam by the drunkard

Loretta Russo said...

Spam by the drunkard

Loretta Russo said...

"And it's so classified that it's been in the public domain for ever since the federal government started banning laptops on flights to the US."

Just when I think the hyperbole couldn't get worse......

rrb said...

Just when I think the hyperbole couldn't get worse......
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


according to a dozen anonymous sources of mine, the alky has fallen off the wagon and is back on the sauce.

rrb said...

“This is code-word information,” said a U.S. official familiar with the matter, using terminology that refers to one of the highest classification levels used by American spy agencies. Trump “revealed more information to the Russian ambassador than we have shared with our own allies.”
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


would someone please get with trump and instruct him to only transmit this information from a private server? preferably a server housed in a janitor's closet in mar-a-lago?

geesh. trump is such a fucking amateur when it comes to dealing with classified info.

also, i wouldn't make too much of this alky. i'm sure trump didn't "intend" for this to get out.

"intent" is the standard now alky.

that precedent has been set.*

*#thankscomey.




wphamilton said...

And people had bombs since WWI so any plot involving bombs have been "in the public domain". Same lame reasoning as how you're excusing Trump's stupidity with the Russians. Same stupidity that you'd like to jail Clinton over.

opie said...

DF rat said......

would someone please get with trump and instruct him to only transmit this information from a private server? preferably a server housed in a janitor's closet in mar-a-lego

You're dumber than my cats. BTW, as I have stated numerous times, trump can declassify anything he wants, even if it results in sources being killed. I'm sure that the Intel community will enjoy knowing the POTUS is dumber than you, rat. Idiot.

opie said...


Blogger Loretta Russo said...
Spam by the drunkard

May 16, 2017 at 3:06 AM
Blogger Loretta the twat Russo said...
Spam by the drunkard

May 16, 2017 at 3:06 AM
Blogger Loretta Russo said...
"And it's so classified that it's been in the public domain for ever since the federal government started banning laptops on flights to the US."

Just when I think the hyperbole couldn't get worse......

Can't you just leave it alone???? Obvious your obsession with young boys inhibits your ability to post a cogent thought , just inane pedo trolls. Asshole. LOLOLOLOL

rrb said...


if trump's "stupidity with the russians" could be verified by something other than anonymous sources, i'm interested wp. until then, i'm only seeing this as a transparent and lame effort to take him out.

we know with absolute and verifiable certainty that classified intel was compromised and mishandled by the clinton organization. fact. yet comey let's her completely off the hook over the false premise of intent, when the statute she violated clearly states "gross negligence" violates the statute.

ironically, as president, technically trump can declassify whatever he wants. but that's besides the point.

look, i get the fact that the entire msm has their panties in a bunch because trump won and hillary lost. oh well. that's politics. the russians didn't put trump in the white house. it was those deplorable blue collar democrats that have been neglected and taken for granted by the left that put him there.

the fact of the matter is that since the left failed to WIN the white house, now they're resorting to trying to SEIZE it. "anonymously", of course. and they should not expect their childish antics to be met with a serious response.







rrb said...

You're dumber than my cats.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

LOL.

how did i know you have cats, d0pie?

rrb said...

BTW, as I have stated numerous times, trump can declassify anything he wants, even if it results in sources being killed.
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

suddenly the potential for sources being killed matters.

hypocrisy is the bedrock of liberalism.

opie said...

suddenly the potential for sources being killed matters.

You really can make a pile of shit out of anything..... Seems it is okay for you to think killing is a good thing, being an asshole is what you do best.... Nothing I posted alludes to what you said, but if you think that, I know I can't fix stupid like you. Get your knee pads out , trump needs a blow job.....LOL

opie said...

DF rat said....
LOL.

how did i know you have cats, d0pie?

And how do I know you are an uneducated ag school drop out and bigoted failure without a life???????

james said...

What Trump did was not criminal.
Just incredibly stupid.

Intelligence sources are refusing to comment.

Allies are reassessing how forthcoming they will be with future classified information.

opie said...

CH posted

'"94.66 percent of simulations gave Republicans between 50 and 54 senators"

He buys this group of simulations while discounting the 96+% of global warming models that says we are heading into trouble. Funny how the depth of your hypocrisy grows with your bias, CH.

Roger Amick said...

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/864436162567471104

Trump says that he can tell anyone what I want.

Again he undermined his staff. The spocksman said that he didn't release
anything.

Loretta Russo said...

Spam by the pedo

Loretta Russo said...

Crack kills.

Loretta Russo said...

Crack kills.

Loretta Russo said...

You forgot LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL

Loretta Russo said...

You forgot LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL

james said...

LOL He and his staff cannot stay in synch.

He is a lose canon on the deck and the deck is our country and the world.

Downward spiral continues...continues...continues...continues...
con...

Loretta Russo said...

Spam by the pedo

james said...

Trump Admits Revealing Classified Information

“President Trump appeared to acknowledge Tuesday that he revealed highly classified information to Russia — a stunning confirmation of a Washington Post story and a move that contradicted his own White House team after it scrambled to deny the report,” the Washington Post reports.

"Trump’s tweets tried to explain away the news, which emerged late Monday, that he had shared sensitive, ‘code-word’ information with the Russian foreign minister and ambassador during a White House meeting last week, a disclosure that intelligence officials warned could jeopardize a crucial intelligence source on the Islamic State.”

Loretta Russo said...

Spam by the pedo

Loretta Russo said...

"The Democratic National Committee staffer who was gunned down on July 10 on a Washington, D.C., street last July just steps from his home had leaked thousands of internal emails to WikiLeaks, law enforcement sources told Fox News.

A federal investigator who reviewed an FBI forensic report detailing the contents of DNC staffer Seth Rich’s computer generated within 96 hours after his murder, said Rich made contact with Wikileaks through Gavin MacFadyen [pictured: bottom right], a now-deceased American investigative reporter, documentary filmmaker, and director of WikiLeaks who was living in London at the time.

“I have seen and read the emails between Seth Rich and Wikileaks,” the federal investigator told Fox News, confirming the MacFadyen connection. He said the emails are in possession of the FBI, while the stalled case is in the hands of the Washington Police Department."

opie said...

loretta the twat russo posted the following inane spam said.....

Blogger Loretta Russo said...
Spam by the pedo
May 16, 2017 at 8:06 AM
Blogger Loretta Russo said...
Crack kills.
May 16, 2017 at 8:07 AM
Blogger Loretta Russo said...
Crack kills.
May 16, 2017 at 8:08 AM
Blogger Loretta Russo said...
You forgot LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL
May 16, 2017 at 8:08 AM
Blogger Loretta Russo said...
You forgot LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL
May 16, 2017 at 8:09 AM

You are really certifiable.

james said...

Ignore her. I do.

Loretta Russo said...

"Authorities arrested three illegal aliens for allegedly breaking into an attorney’s home and kidnapping him in the middle of the night.

Detectives from the Orange County Sherriff’s Office Criminal Division located German Adalid Borjas-Benitez, 19, Henrry Eduar Rivera-Antunez, 17, and Erik Pagoada-Bustillo, 17, in Port Arthur on Friday, 12 News reported."

Loretta Russo said...

Pedo

Loretta Russo said...

"Leading union officials earned an average salary of $252,370 in 2016, outpacing the average salary of private sector chief executives, according to a new report.

The Center for Union Facts compiled the salary information from federal labor filings of 192 of the largest national, state, and local unions. The report found that labor presidents enjoyed nearly a $60,000 advantage over the take-home pay of the nation's business leaders, who earned an average of $194,350, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The average compensation of union officials, which includes salary and other perks, was $283,678, according to the report."

Loretta Russo said...

Airline Pilots Association President Timothy Canoll was the highest-paid union official, according to the federal data. He earned total compensation of $775,829 with a base salary of $526,292. The union, which is a member of the AFL-CIO, gave Canoll about $250,000 in perks in addition to the take-home pay, including $24,000 in allowances and $29,000 in official business expenses, such as meals and entertainment. He was given $196,534 in compensation classified as "Other."

The association did not return an email seeking comment about the nature of Canoll's compensation or the details of his additional benefits.

The Center for Union Facts report is intended to rebut the AFL-CIO's annual Executive Paywatch report, which highlights the pay disparity between business executives and their employees. The union compares the average pay of S&P 500 CEOs and that of the average rank-and-file members. The gap between the two groups is enormous, with CEOs making $13.1 million in total compensation compared to $37,632 for the average production worker—"a CEO-to-worker pay ratio of 347 to 1."

"Last year, S&P 500 CEOs got a 5.9% raise while working people struggled to make ends meet," the union's website says.

Loretta Russo said...

Liberal snowflakes both in the United States and abroad responded to this year’s Mother’s Day festivities by complaining — which it seems is the only thing they’re capable of ever doing with their miserable lives — about the holiday’s allegedly discriminatory nature and arguing that such celebrations should be eliminated altogether.

“I’d like to propose that we scrap both Mother’s Day and Father’s Day for good,” whined Canadian feminist Emma Teitel in a column published Friday by the Toronto Star. “And in the spirit of both inclusivity and selfishness, I’d like to propose a new holiday called ‘Guardian’s Day.'”

Teitel claimed that so-called “gendered holidays” such as Mother’s Day are “a drag for non-binary parents who don’t identify with a single gender,” whatever in the world that means. Seriously, what does it even mean to be someone who doesn’t “identify with a single gender”?

“A guardian can be a mom, a dad, a non-binary parent, a grandparent, an aunt, an uncle, a pet owner, or why the heck not — somebody who takes really good care of his houseplants,” Teitel added.

But wait: Why does a guardian have to be a human? Why can’t a dog protecting his bone be a guardian? Doesn’t he deserve his own holiday as well?

Loretta Russo said...

Sadly, but not surprisingly, Teitel’s column was not the only inane commentary that has popped up regarding Mother’s Day. Heat Street identified at least two additional examples, including one of a transgender woman who uploaded a video to YouTube whining that Mother’s Day “can be a very hard day” because he’s mentally disturbed (my words, not his).

Loretta Russo said...

You forgot LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL

Loretta Russo said...

The Obama Administration flooded the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program with more than 120,000 illegal immigrants in its final three months.

Former President Obama created DACA to give a special, protected status to illegal immigrants who arrived in the U.S. as children. Data from the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) indicate the Obama Administration was potentially bracing for then-candidate Donald Trump to become president in October 2016.

Between October and December 2016, the first quarter of Fiscal Year 2017, the Obama Administration received 114,327 DACA applications from illegal immigrants trying to either obtain the protected status or renew existing ones. From there, Obama approved and added 122,221 DACA recipients, often called ‘DREAMers,’ to the DACA rolls.

Loretta Russo said...

According to Center for Immigration Studies Fellow John Miano, the fact that the number of DACA applications approved was greater than the number filed during the first quarter indicates that the administration pushed through backlogged requests, of which there are more than 105,000.

Even for Obama standards, the number of illegal immigrant DREAMers put on the DACA rolls before President Trump took office are relatively high.

In Fiscal Year of 2016, more than 199,000 illegal immigrants were given DACA protected status. In Fiscal Year 2016, the number of new DACA recipients approved did not come close to exceeding the number of DACA applications. More than 260,000 illegal immigrants applied for DACA protected status.

Loretta Russo said...

The United States has gone from a country that was overtly Christian at its conception, to being very open and tolerant. To a point where a loud portion of the population seeming to think it's their right to make sure that the entire country is completely secular and that no part of our Christian heritage slips through and contaminates the boys and girls of today. Unless your religion is Islam, you're pretty much out of luck when it comes to displaying your religion for the world to see. You'll be branded fanatical, or intolerant if you dare to take a stand for anything.

The freedom of speech and freedom of religious expression has now morphed into freed from religion and freedom to oppress religious expression, and that's just not the way it was supposed to be. There are completely secular cultures that have an arguably sustainable system, we're just not one of them. We were built with the structure of freedom on the foundation of the bible in the hopes that these Christian principles would help delay the inevitable ruin of almost any society by the sin nature that is within each person.

That's why it's particularly ridiculous that liberals have a problem with Trump being religious. They, no doubt, also have a problem with the founding fathers being religious as well, but unfortunately for them, they can't retroactively get someone impeached, so I guess the founders are safe.

opie said...

Loretta the plagiarizer twat said....

Sadly, but not surprisingly, Teitel’s column was not the only inane commentary that has popped up regarding Mother’s Day. Heat Street identified at least two additional examples, including one of a transgender woman who uploaded a video to YouTube whining that Mother’s Day “can be a very hard day”

And once again, the last 4 posts are all stolen from other sources without attribution....Quotations do not supplant the actual source....like the conservative tribune. Oh well, here comes the lecture that I don't know how to post. Idiot lazy injun.

Loretta Russo said...

"In the past year, we’ve seen extreme actions taken by the liberal media to discredit our now President Donald Trump. There is no question that Trump has taken bold actions to protect our country from the threat of Islamic extremism, but the bias we’ve seen in the media is unlike anything we’ve seen before.

Even some Christians are quoting the Bible out of context in an attempt to discredit Trump as a leader and a Christian. Fortunately, Trump is not taking this criticism silently. On a recent appearance on The Brody File, David Brody asked Trump how he deals with the stress of office.

'Let me switch gears. You know, it wouldn’t be an interview between us if I didn’t ask a ‘God question,’ if you will,' Brody began. 'How has that spiritual journey been for you? Especially being here and knowing the gravity of the office. Do you feel the need to pray more? Where are you on that?'

'Well, I’ll tell you what,' Trump began. 'I’ve always felt the need to pray. And you know that…So, I would say that the office is so powerful that you need God even more, because your decisions are no longer, ‘Gee, I’m going to build a building in New York,’ or ‘I’m going to this.’ These are questions of massive life and death, even with regard to health care. You know we’re working very hard on health care.'

'But there, you’re talking about life and death and you’re talking about better lives,' Trump added. 'People living better because they have better health care at a lower price, which we’re working very hard on. So yes, you realize these decisions are all so important—there’s almost not a decision that you make when you’re sitting in this position that isn’t a really life-altering decision. So God comes in even more so.'”

Loretta Russo said...

You forgot LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL

Loretta Russo said...

The chief complaint of many, even some Trump supporters, was that he comes off as too arrogant and it's kind of a fair complaint. Nobody wants somebody that's going to let the office go to their head. It's possible that what is coming off as arrogance is the confidence of a successful person, raised in a time when success wasn't villainized and being an aggressor. Success in business and person life was what was hoped and dreamed for by kids everywhere when the Presiden was growing up, and it's safe to say that he arrived, and as President, he's arrived again. He's very confident in himself, but not so that he doesn't think he needs help from a higher power. If you don't like that he calls that higher power God, you're welcome to avert your eyes and stop the video, but it's not only within our rights, it's our heritage to have a leader that trusts in God to direct his paths.

Will he make every decision exactly the way I want or even the way all evangelicals want? Probably not. Will he always be right? I sincerely doubt it. But chances are he will be right more than a person who doesn't ask for help and if we're hedging bets I'm always going to throw my lot with the person who looks to the Master of the universe, not someone who considers himself a slave to his party (aka our former Communist in Chief).

Love it, hate it, it matters not to me and it certainly doesn't matter to the President. So you carry on exercising your freedoms and he'll carry on exercising his.

Loretta Russo said...

"Creating ‘Civil War’ with Violence, Lies and Rejection of Trump Election Win"

"The Democrats are once again leading the country towards Civil War.
With the latest outright lies promoted by the media and Democrat politicians, the violence at nearly every Trump rally and interruptions at all Trump rallies, the left is leading America to a very dangerous place"

A civil war has begun.

This civil war is very different than the last one. There are no cannons or cavalry charges. The left doesn’t want to secede. It wants to rule. Political conflicts become civil wars when one side refuses to accept the existing authority. The left has rejected all forms of authority that it doesn’t control.

The left has rejected the outcome of the last two presidential elections won by Republicans. It has rejected the judicial authority of the Supreme Court when it decisions don’t accord with its agenda. It rejects the legislative authority of Congress when it is not dominated by the left.

It rejected the Constitution so long ago that it hardly bears mentioning.

It was for total unilateral executive authority under Obama. And now it’s for states unilaterally deciding what laws they will follow. (As long as that involves defying immigration laws under Trump, not following them under Obama.) It was for the sacrosanct authority of the Senate when it held the majority. Then it decried the Senate as an outmoded institution when the Republicans took it over.

It was for Obama defying the orders of Federal judges, no matter how well grounded in existing law, and it is for Federal judges overriding any order by Trump on any grounds whatsoever. It was for Obama penalizing whistleblowers, but now undermining the government from within has become “patriotic”.

There is no form of There is no form of legal authority that the left accepts as a permanent institution. It only utilizes forms of authority selectively when it controls them. But when government officials refuse the orders of the duly elected government because their allegiance is to an ideology whose agenda is in conflict with the President and Congress, that’s not activism, protest, politics or civil disobedience; it’s treason.

After losing Congress, the left consolidated its authority in the White House. After losing the White House, the left shifted its center of authority to Federal judges and unelected government officials. Each defeat led the radicalized Democrats to relocate from more democratic to less democratic institutions.

This isn’t just hypocrisy. That’s a common political sin. Hypocrites maneuver within the system. The left has no allegiance to the system. It accepts no laws other than those dictated by its ideology."

Loretta Russo said...

The treasonous left has also become the violent left. The GWP has noted numerous isolated violent attacks on conservatives by the left. (query violent and see the many violent acts from the left). Conservatives have been bloodied and knocked unconscious by violent left wing anarchists in Berkley, San Jose and across the county.

The mainstream media (MSM) adds gas to the flames of the liberal politicians and Democrats in a constant stream of hate and lies for our President and our country. Large institutions are now factories of hate and fake news.

Conservatives need to be ready and courageous because the President and our country are under an all out assault by the left."