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Monday, June 19, 2017

Ossoff will probably win, but does it matter?

All of the apparent signs point to the Democrat Jon Ossoff defeating Republican Karen Handel in tomorrow's special election in Georgia 6th district.
  • Polling shows a narrow lead for Ossoff - although they have tightened over the past ten days or so.
  • Polling shows that early votes are being cast heavily in favor of Ossoff.
  • They are projecting at least forty thousand more votes than the first special election. High voter turnout generally helps Democrats. 
My gut tells me that Ossoff may end up winning in the three to five percent range. Based on how far the Democrats have to move the needle to realistically have a chance to retake the house in 2018, a number around that range is probably necessary. Anything less is probably a problem for  them.

That being said, there are a myriad of different ways to view this race, and I am sure the post-election spin will be dizzying. 

The thing that strikes me about this race, and the historical reason that special elections are rarely a good indicator of the next election results, is the uniqueness of what is happening in Georgia. While most special elections garner extra attention, this one has been record setting, with money and voluneers pouring in from all over the country. Moreover, the current news cycle could not be better for Ossoff or worse for Handel. Lastly, it seems rather clear that as of June 2017 that Democrats are simply more motivated (hate does that to you) than the Republicans are. Losing tends to motivate more than winning does. 

So how does any of this factor into the 2018 midterms? It probably doesn't.

Short of another devastating loss by the Democrats or a devastatingly large defeat for the Republicans, it's unlikely (despite the claims by some pundits) that the results here will drastically change the strategy moving forward.  After all, a Democrat win will allow them to say that they picked up a seat, while the GOP will still point to the fact that they won elsewhere when some suggested they could lose. 

More to the point, the tangible meaning is even less significant. There will not be hundreds of volunteers from all around the country and tens of millions of dollars pouring into Georgia 6 next November. It will go back to being a normal swing district with local volunteers and a much smaller pool of money, and there will likely be a reasonable chance of this seat switching hands regardless of who wins. 

60 comments:

Good ole truther admitting James said...

Suuuure. The UNimpotance of this race is signaled by the historic proportions of money being poured into it.

Commonsense said...

If Ossoff wins, it will be a pyrrhic (and temporary) win. I don't think 18 months of control of the seat will have been worth the 25 million dollars they spent to get it.

On the other hand this will probably end Handel's political career if she can't win against a lightweight like Ossoff.

However, If Ossoff loses, the Democrats will really be behind the eight ball.

When you dump 25 million in a special election you expect results, and Ossoff losing will hurt future fundraising as well as enthusiasm.

C.H. Truth said...

James - they have nothing else to spend their money on right now? Where else are they going to put their money and energy?

Are you really dumb enough to believe that "another" $50 million will spent on this district next November?

Good old James said...

Tremendous amounts of money being poured in by both sides.

KD, CHT Been SUED YET BY JANE< NIETHER HAVE I said...

historic proportions of money being poured into it. " jane the little faggot


It is funny how often you cross talk yourself, you are against money in US Politics , unless it helps your team win.


IF, you win tomorrow your score for special Elections in 2017 will be Two Losses and One Win, in baseball terms your team is in the cellar of the league playing .333 ball.

KD, Making Fun of Jane is so easy said...

Osoff goes to which polling station tomorrow to vote, I want to be sure to get that on camera audio/video to see what he has to say.


Commonsense said...

Tremendous amounts of money being poured in by both sides.

Actually no. Democrats are raising and spending far more than Republicans.

C.H. Truth said...

It's really irrelevant who is spending the most... the bottom line is neither Party will spend this much next November, and the entire country will not be watching this particular race, and it will go back to being an average everyday swing district...

It will be an entirely different campaign and an entirely different race.

rrb said...


imho, the democrats have much more to lose here. if handel beats pajama boy, then their whole "this race is a referendum of trump" line of bullshit goes up in smoke.

Commonsense said...

Maybe, but I'm just wondering whether the GOP is playing four dimensional chess by letting the Democrats bleed themselves out in Georgia.

Or whether it's just dumb stupid luck.

wphamilton said...

So much has been made of the other special elections that favored Republicans, and of the Democrat's losses there, that a Democratic win here must have some significance. In this very blog, by the self-same author of this one, those losses were significant to the point of proving that the Democrats had no political strength, their agenda rejected. They were hailed as demonstrating Trump's strength, and public support of Trump's agenda.

So what am I to think here, it's only significant if the Republicans can squeak another win?

I had to practically throw an Ossoff campaign worker off my doorstep this weekend. She flat out wouldn't stop talking, even after I point-blank told her that I was going to vote, and for her guy. Yes I know where to vote, yes I can get there, and if you keep implying that I'm a moron I'm going to change my mind! Closing the door in her face - gently! - she tried to shove it open with her clipboard. Maybe where she comes from - NY perhaps - that stuff will fly but not here. Another Ossoff guy was pounding on my door Sunday, until I hollered to the family "Political nut at the door, don't open it!". I had to do it TWICE before he got the message.

All of this outside help might not be really helping him. Ossoff could be blowing it.

C.H. Truth said...

WP - more fake news?

Here is my post on the Montana special election.

http://coldheartedtruthblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/gianforte-slams-quist.html

Doesn't really mesh with what you just suggested that I wrote...

caliphate4vr said...

All of this outside help might not be really helping him. Ossoff could be blowing it.

Connecticut visited me

rrb said...

and if you keep implying that I'm a moron...
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

this is one of the main reasons i have no use for democrats. they treat everyone as either being stupid or evil. it's boorish and tiresome.

rrb said...

Maybe where she comes from - NY perhaps - that stuff will fly but not here.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

LOL.

nice stereotype, wp.

the truth is, there are assholes everywhere. and the door to door political operatives up here in ny are no different than anywhere else. do what i sometimes do - answer the door with shotgun in hand. they scurry.

rrb said...



a statistical tie:


http://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/6th-district-poll-fewer-voters-undecided/534524963

Commonsense said...

Demographic breakdown is the same as it was a couple of weeks ago.

Handel has a significant lead among people who show up to vote and show up to vote on election day.

It's going to be a long night in Georgia.

opie said...

Does it matter, in the great scheme of things....no. But in today's frenzied partisan world, it sure will give credence to trumps lack of getting anything done and get you R's to start thinking how to modify your behavior before things get worse for the party of no. Will the base come out in droves and support the women or not???? Does the motivation exist to support the R's in a fairly affluent educated district??? I sure can see a bunch of fence voters saying fuck it.....Oh well.

opie said...

From WaPo

Dirty attack ad could backfire in Georgia’s high-profile 6th District race
By Jennifer Rubin

As it well should.

rrb said...




heh -


Senate leaders plan to rush a health-care bill to a vote, and there’s nothing Democrats can do about it


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/06/19/senate-leaders-plan-to-rush-a-health-care-bill-to-a-vote-and-theres-nothing-democrats-can-do-about-it/?utm_term=.03484a600584#comments


thanks harry.



KD, said...

Political Assassination of the Republican was treated by the US Press as no biggy.

That is a fact.

Killing President Trump in a play , night after night is just typical liberal behavior.

rrb said...

Dirty attack ad could backfire in Georgia’s high-profile 6th District race
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


so...

paul ryan pushing a wheelchair-bound grandma off a cliff is a-ok, but handel's ad is dirty.

okey dokey.

democracy drowns in bullshit, and hypocrisy is the bedrock of liberalism.

KD, Stocks at new highs, hope you did not take alky's stock advice said...

Republicans are just ramping up, good to see it, I hope they continue for the next 8 years of President Trump to treat the Left Like the left mistreated the Republicans, after all balance needs to be restored.

Osoff goes to which polling station tomorrow to vote in GA 6?

rrb said...

and get you R's to start thinking how to modify your behavior before things get worse for the party of no.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

let us know when a trump supporter starts shooting democrats.




"Will the base come out in droves and support the women or not???? "

did sandra fluke run out of rubbers again?

i would tend to doubt it. that woman is "a 12-pack and a light switch" if i ever saw one.

KD, US Stocks Winning Biggly with Pres. Trump said...

hypocrisy is the bedrock of liberalism." True Rat


We do need to thank the Democrat party for the spike in straw sales, as their unending building and burning down of strawmen has been awesome.

President Trump ,,, never ever going to be a President Hillary, except she is the queen of slush fund money buying the current #resistance. It is simply a rent a movement.

Look how pitiful the turn out was for the Minn. protest when the LEO was found not guilty on every count. Where was the BlackLIESMatter non-movement, I will tell you where, NO FREAKING WHERE, why, like the non-movement OccupyWallStreet, those rent a riot have lost funding by Hillary, so they are left to wither on the vine and die.

opie said...

We do need to thank the Democrat party for the spike in straw sales

And we can thank trump for bringing the jobless rate of lawyers to zero!!!!!!!

opie said...

that woman is "a 12-pack and a light switch"

You mean like loretta??????

KD, Funny idiot Jane, threaten all of US With a Law Suit said...

The same Sandra Fuck that could not buy her own spermocidal soap to wash out the gang fuck she willingly took on, but , gave $100,000 to Democrap candidates.

One thing we always know for sure, IF Dems are saying it, it is a fucking lie.


Jane the faggot, where is that promised letter, you got nothing, but that white flag of failure flying over you.

opie said...

but handle's ad is dirty.


LOL. Not defending handle....but she didn't sponsor it, it was one of those PAC's that citizens united allowed. Unlike you rathole, she had the gusto speak out against the ad and did so quickly. A touch of class for a party with none.

KD said...

Opie, I hear you have two homes, congrats, except that you whine like the anal sucker you are about how the planet is in trouble with all the pollution.

Odopie the queer Caught again lying and living the lie.

Good ole gentle truth-seeking James said...

Thank Trump for bringing the jobless rate of lawyers to zero, LOL LOL LOL

Good ole gentle truth-seeking James said...

GOP Health Bill Polls Poorly In Key States

Public Policy Polling released surveys in three states where a GOP senator will have a key swing vote on the GOP health care plan: Nevada, West Virginia and Alaska.


The approval rates for the plan were generally dismal but Trump voters continue to support it:

Nevada: 31% of all voters, 61% of Trump voters approve

Alaska: 29% of all voters,  59% of Trump voters approve

West Virginia: 35% of all voters, 50% of Trump voters approve

In all three states, the survey found a majority had either “very serious” or “somewhat serious” concerns about the lack of public hearings on the Senate plan.
_______________
Yet you critcized the Dems for not having Repug involvement.

opie said...

Odopie the queer Caught again lying and living the lie.


Run out of meds today? Go service a goat, something you do well. LOLOLOL

Good ole gentle truth-seeking James said...

Has Trump apologized to Putin yet for shooting down the Syrian fighter?

wphamilton said...

Here's one CH
http://coldheartedtruthblog.blogspot.com/2017/04/summing-up-democratics-performance-in.html

"Summing up the Democratic's performance in Special Elections so far! O-3 so far in real life... but undefeated in moral victories!" where you claimed that even the first round win was a loss "it wasn't the outright win many people on the left were hoping for, which realistically makes it a loss."

Or how about "One can sense that there is a growing frustration by many Democrats with the concept of "moral victories". They would like a real one for a change. I would suspect that anything short of an outright win in Georgia 6 would be very damaging to the morale of the rank and file Democrat."

Aren't you saying there that the special election has sweeping implications for the Democrats in subsequent elections? Having very damaged moral and all that?

wphamilton said...

James said...
Has Trump apologized to Putin yet for shooting down the Syrian fighter?


Trump is probably snickering about it. I'm sure that Russia's reaction made his day, whining about how they're going to "target" everything flying with their targeting radar. The more you complain, the more he'll push because complaining and threatening is something other than tangible action.

If Trump has any backbone he'll home a sidewinder into any anti-aircraft radar that paints one of our planes.

C.H. Truth said...

WP - you wrote:

In this very blog, by the self-same author of this one, those losses were significant to the point of proving that the Democrats had no political strength, their agenda rejected. They were hailed as demonstrating Trump's strength, and public support of Trump's agenda.

I provided no suggestion that this was about the Democrat's agenda or that it had anything to do with Trump's agenda. In fact, I have always "discounted" the long term impact of special elections... they sometimes mean something and they sometimes don't.

I have to ask you, WP... do you not feel like the Democrats will be hugely disappointed if they don't pick up this seat? Is there anything "really" over the top about that statement? Isn't it really just an obvious statement ?

wphamilton said...

Blogger rrb said...LOL. nice stereotype, wp.

That's how people see it rrb. I've been here what, 15 years, moved from Dallas Texas and I'm still a "Yankee" to a lot of people. Maybe less in this district than generally, but still enough, and outsiders acting like "Yankees" isn't going to gain Ossoff any votes.

Indy Voter said...

Trump's assembled a war cabinet. Now he just needs a war.

wphamilton said...

Ossoff is a babe in the woods, there's no way that the Democrat power-brokers expect any real gains from him being elected. The only value in it is to spite Trump and wave it in the face of the GOP, and even that is short term.

Commonsense said...

Well WP the media certainly invested a lot in an Ossoff victory.

You can be sure if Ossoff wins, there with be "Trump is losing support" stories all over the place.

If Ossoff loses, crickets.

caliphate4vr said...

It's working! Let it collapse

The last carrier standing in Iowa’s individual health-insurance market said Monday that it intends to keep selling such policies here next year, but it would need to charge much higher premiums than it's collecting now.

Even after Monday's announcement, Medica still could pull out of the Iowa market, as many experts feared. That could leave no options for up to 72,000 Iowans who now buy their own insurance instead of obtaining it via an employer or government program, such as Medicare or Medicaid.


And Medica was a shining star for the Bumblecare supporters, Medicaid model of skinny ass networks

rrb said...



Anonymous caliphate4vr said...
It's working! Let it collapse
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


i keep hearing from democrats about the 24 million who will lose health insurance if the GOP repeals 0-care, but those same democrats are silent regarding the consequences of allowing their shitty legislation collapse under its own weight.

now why would that be? the net result is the same, is it not?


Amused, James said...

Whether Ossoff wins or loses, one thing is sure:
Trump IS losing support.

As a grateful nation acknowledges.

Amused, James said...

Get the message, Rat. Your side owns it now.

Loretta said...

Obnoxious James Boswell trolling.

Loretta said...

Obnoxious James Boswell trolling

Amused, James said...

Knee slapping hilarious.
I am just SO in that poor Indian's head!

caliphate4vr said...

The only thing you're in are small children

Loretta said...

Obnoxious James Boswell trolling, typical white trash.

Fair minded James said...

Hey Cali. Don't hide behind your anonymity. Come right out and accuse me with a signed statement.

Meanwhile, and more important:
Trump’s Approval Slides to New Low

A new CBS News poll finds President Trump’s approval rating is a dismal 36% to 57%.

Key finding: “The drop in the President’s approval rating is partially due to ebbing support among Republicans. Seventy-two percent approve of the job Mr. Trump is doing, a decline of eleven points since April.”
_____________________
Oh no! He's losing even his base?

Amused, James said...


Actually, I have Cherokee blood in me.

Loretta said...

Bullshit. Everyone claims Cherokee blood.

Obnoxious psycho is white trash through and through.

opie said...

Anonymous caliphate4vr said...
The only thing you're in are small children

Feel better tough guy with small hands???? Go to work and sell some insurance, a most noble non-profession.

Loretta said...

Obnoxious James Boswell trolling

Concerned for his country, James said...

Few Back Trump Decision to Pull Out of Climate Accord

A new AP-NORC poll finds that less than a third of Americans support President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Paris climate accord, with just 18% of respondents agreeing with his claim that pulling out of the international agreement to reduce carbon emissions will help the U.S. economy.

David said...

“If liberals voted at the same rate as conservatives, the country would be doing more to address the two defining issues of our time — climate change and stagnant middle-class living standards. Instead, Trump is making both worse.”
--David Leonhardt

Loretta said...

Obnoxious James Boswell trolling

Loretta said...

Obnoxious James Boswell trolling

Loretta said...

Otto Warmbier passed away.

Thanks for nothing, Obama. Big PUSSY.