Wednesday, September 20, 2017

A simple act of cognitive dissonance...

So the big "Russia" story (if there truly is anything big about the Russia story anymore) is that the FBI had went to a FISA court to garner a warrant to wire-tap Paul Manafort. Moving past the debate as to whether or not this proves Trump's assertion that people within his campaign were being spied on... the argument being posed on the left is something like this one:
This news is a big deal primarily because of what it takes to obtain such a wiretap order. The warrant reportedly was issued under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. A FISA warrant requires investigators to demonstrate to the FISA court that there is probable cause to believe the target may be acting as an unlawful foreign agent.
Once again, we are being told that the actual "act" of being wiretapped or being investigated is a sign of obvious guilt. As pointed out previously, it's the classic begging  the question argument. Because we have an investigation, we can assume the underlying questions must be true.

The truth is that there are different instances of "probable cause" and that we should not confuse them. Generally you need "probable cause" to issue an arrest warrant and you would need "probable cause" to bring charges. If in fact, the Government had "probable cause" that Paul Manafort was acting as an unlawful foreign agent, then they would have issued an arrest warrant. Plain and simple.

What they were looking for (and received) was a warrant to put him under surveillance.  It would actually quite dishonest to make an argument that confuses the requirements of that, with the requirements of either being arrested or being charged. The warrant to search or set up surveillance requires only a reasonable suspicion of unlawful activity, not proof of it. The idea is that the warrant would provide the tangible evidence (that they currently do not have).

Now Paul Manafort certainly may be guilty of something. On one side we have reports that Mueller suggested that Manafort to him that he will be indicted (supposedly for criminal activity that predates the campaign). On the other side we have reports that certain people involved are "miffed" that a second warrant against Manafort may have been unjustly garnered by the use of the dubious "Trump dossier".

But the bottom line here folks.

Paul Manafort was under FICA surveillance for nearly two years before it ended due to a lack of anything substantial coming from it. That is proof positive that people can be placed under surveillance for "suspicion" of a crime, rather than evidence of a crime, and walk away without any charges. Moreover, it's proof positive that it actually happened once already to the person in question.

The fact that this simple fact is being "washed over" by the left is a simple case of cognitive dissonance likely fueled by wishful speculation.

13 comments:

Anonymous said...

Exactly, well done CHT.

commie said...

Once again, we are being told that the actual "act" of being wiretapped or being investigated is a sign of obvious guilt.

Once again, speaking for others is most amusing,,,,,,no one told me he was obviously guilty....only you. Dayum full of yourself again with propensity to convince the weak minded kd of your ersatz brilliance!!!!! LOLOLOL

C.H. Truth said...

no one told me he was obviously guilty

As in, nobody came to the door of your mother's house, wandered down to the basement and "told you" specifically... "Paul Manafort is obviously guilty"?

Well... good for you, ace. But I doubt anyone cares.

wphamilton said...

We all know that FISA surveillance warrants are practically rubber stamps, the court only tolerated ostensibly to combat foreign terrorism. The secrecy is the problem. It's not the simple fact that there was a warrant, implying guilt - come on CH, no one is saying that.

The reactions you're seeing are because aside from untrustworthy scripted leaks and the parsing lies we've seen from all parties, we don't know what's going on with this secret investigation with secret courts and we infer from the activities which become public. Yes Manafort is a victim of this secret court which should be illegal and abolished, but that doesn't mean that he isn't on the edge of prosecution.

C.H. Truth said...

It's not the simple fact that there was a warrant, implying guilt - come on CH, no one is saying that.

What they are saying, WP is:

A FISA warrant requires investigators to demonstrate to the FISA court that there is probable cause to believe the target may be acting as an unlawful foreign agent.

When in fact, as you pointed out... all they need is any reasonable suspicion of wrongdoing and the courts generally grant it.

When I hear the words "requires" "demonstrate" "probable cause" "unlawful foreign agent" in the same sentence I tend to believe that there is more than just a suspicion.

The implication is that there is already enough evidence to show "probable cause" (which most people tend to associate with arrest, indictment, or charges).

commie said...

As in, nobody came to the door of your mother's house,

Can't see the forest through the trees can you CH? The only one making your claim is you, no one else. WP got you by the ballz again with your tenet of complete bullshit....If you want to speak for yourself, buy your broad brush strokes are rather annoying and stupid even by your standards.....When I see you spinning like a top again can only lead to a single conclusion about your opinion of the law.....it is nothing but yours and wrong.....LOLOLOL

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Mueller is asking for all data from the President and the White House records.
wishful speculation is all you have

Anonymous said...

He did. Funny shit.

Anonymous said...

Blogger Roger Amick said...
Mueller is asking for all data from the President and the White House records.
wishful speculation is all you have
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

LOL.

it sounds like wishful speculation is all MUELLER has.

commie said...

-Melodia, mail order bride needs to stay at home instead of impressing us with her style....stupid, plain stupid Wonder if donnie is getting any?????? I bet loretta would do him....LOLOLOL!!!

U.S.Yahoo
Melania Trump's $2,950 hot pink dress distracts from her anti-bullying speech
Elise Solé 1 hour 35 minutes ago

Melania Trump
Melania Trump addressed world leaders about bullying, but all eyes were on her hot-pink dress. (Photo: Don Emmert/AFP/Getty Images)
Melania Trump delivered an antibullying speech to world leaders, but her neon-pink attire may have overshadowed her message.

Taking the podium Wednesday at a luncheon held at the United Nations in New York City, Melania wore a $2,950 Delpozo fuchsia, knee-length coat with billowing sleeves and matching heels. “The most important and joyous role I ever had was to be a mother to my young son,” Melania told the crowd. “And what could possibly be a more essential focus in everyone’s life than that of loving, educating, and bringing up our next generation to be happy, productive, and morally responsible adults?”




Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Mueller Seeks White House Documents Related to Trump’s Actions as President
WASHINGTON — Robert S. Mueller III, the special counsel, has asked the White House for documents about some of President Trump’s most scrutinized actions since taking office, including the firing of his national security adviser and F.B.I. director, according to White House officials.

Mr. Mueller is also interested in an Oval Office meeting Mr. Trump had with Russian officials in which he said the dismissal of the F.B.I. director had relieved “great pressure” on him.

The document requests provide the most details to date about the breadth of Mr. Mueller’s investigation, and show that several aspects of his inquiry are focused squarely on Mr. Trump’s behavior in the White House.

In recent weeks, Mr. Mueller’s office sent a document to the White House that detailed 13 areas in which investigators are seeking information. Since then, administration lawyers have been scouring White House emails and asking officials whether they have other documents or notes that may pertain to Mr. Mueller’s requests.

One of the requests is about a meeting Mr. Trump had in May with Russian officials in the Oval Office the day after James B. Comey, the F.B.I. director, was fired. That day, Mr. Trump met with the Russian foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, and the Russian ambassador to the United States at the time, Sergey I. Kislyak, along with other Russian officials. The New York Times reported that in the meeting Mr. Trump had said that firing Mr. Comey relieved “great pressure” on him.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/20/us/politics/mueller-trump-russia.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0


If the records show that the President and Mathford(SP) for the English language idiot,rrb can't complain about it, conspired to stop the FBI investigation, it would be obstruction of justice,an impeachable offense.


Anonymous said...

((( Triggered))))

Anonymous said...

Melania Trump reminds me of Jackie.