Tuesday, March 13, 2018

House Intelligence Report

No collusion between Trump and Russia
No conclusion that Russia was helping Trump
The House Intelligence Committee has released findings from its upcoming report on the Trump-Russia affair — and its main conclusion is that it has discovered no evidence of collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia to influence the 2016 presidential election.
"We have found no evidence of collusion, coordination, or conspiracy between the Trump campaign and the Russians," the committee said in a one-page summary of its findings released Monday afternoon.
In addition, the committee took issue with the intelligence community assessment of Russian motivations in the 2016 election. The committee agrees with the assessment that the Russians did, in fact, try to interfere — the findings cite "Russian cyberattacks on U.S. political institutions in 2015-2016 and their use of social media to sow discord." But the committee disagrees with the intelligence community judgment that Russian President Vladimir Putin specifically tried to help President Trump win the election.

Like it or not, this is consistent with everything we have heard to date, including what we have gotten from the Special Counsel. In fact, the only actual tangible report that Mueller has brought forth so far that had anything to do with the 2016 election was the indictment of several members of a Russian trolling farm. In that indictment Mueller concluded that the Russians responsible did not collude or conspire with the Trump campaign. The indictment also suggested that the meddling Russians were looking more to sow discontent in the election process (rather than specifically help Trump).

Now obviously, the House Intelligence committee has fairly broad access to most (if not all) the same information that Mueller would have started off with. I am sure there are certain aspects of Mueller's probe that Congress hasn't seen yet (such as special counsel interviews, legal research, and such). But any raw intelligence that has been uncovered would have been turned over to the committees. So at this point, what we are seeing is the leadership (aka GOP) interpretation of information. We will likely see a minority (aka Democrat) interpretation of this same information, and quite obviously we all expect a fairly in depth report from Robert Mueller and his team.

Now it's no secret that the Democrats on the intelligence committee will not likely want to just let this report stand. Even if it's 100% accurate (and it likely is), the politics of the situation demands that they respond. But at this point it's kind of put up or shut up time for Schiff and gang. Either you have something, or you don't. I suspect that the Democrats have very little. 

My best guess is that the Democratic response is not going to include any real evidence of collusion, conspiracy, or anything of that sort. They may disagree around the edges, and even make some statement about deferring to the CIA about motive. But ultimately I would more expect that their response will be to complain that the Intelligence findings are premature, incomplete, and ultimately an attempt to sweep things under the rug by concluding the investigation too soon. 

24 comments:

Indy Voter said...

Walk the dog, Trump fires his Secretary of State. Just another day in Trumpistan.

Anonymous said...




fascism straight up, eh indy?


Anonymous said...

No longer Independent Indy, it ended the nov 9th, 2016.

wphamilton said...

I doubt that the Democrat's report will be in agreement with much, or with any, of the Republicans' version. It's been clear for at least months that the Republicans had turned it into political posturing, and even the Republican members admit that their committee - hence their conclusion - lacks all credibility.

cowardly king obama said...

After all this time I look forward to seeing all the Democrat's "proof", they have had way enough time and witnesses.

I suspect all that leaked "proof" goes "poof", and instead they will argue it would have been just around the next corner.

I do hope real proof of collusion, with Hillary and the Russian dossier, will actually get addressed.

commie said...

Report was a massive POS and cover trumps ass....It solved nothing and only proved how impotent nunes and congress is....be prepared for another bad day with PA-18 being too close for trumps comfort Maybe a wake up call for you sycophants....Going to enjoy watch this and the stormy weather coming.....LOL

C.H. Truth said...

Well WP...

The beauty of all of this is that the Democratic response can be judged by the information put forward. You obviously believe that there is collusion, that it can be proven, and that we have the mountain of evidence to prove it. If that is the case, then the Democrats can certain call attention to it all and make the report look dishonest.

Again, I suspect that any response from Schiff will be little more than a foot stomping, red faced, temper tantrum complaint about the fact that the witch hunt is ending.

Unless it has some real information... it will likely be discounted, just as the first Schiff memo was discounted.

commie said...

Again, I suspect that any response from Schiff will be little more than a foot stomping,

Wow....and the nunes non-report in you mind is complete exoneration of trump and his games.....The report is singularly biased and only puts forward a cover for donnie....They IMHO completely corrupted the process and again show to me why I will never vote for a republican again.....The only witch hunt, your words, that ended was the Nunes cover trumps ass joke....

C.H. Truth said...

Well Denny...

Here is the deal.

When you accuse someone of something, it's your responsibility to prove that allegation. Not someone else's responsibility to prove you wrong.

So if there is evidence of collusion, conspiracy, or something of that nature... then I fully expect that this evidence will be presented to us.


Short of the Democrats presenting tangible evidence that there is collusion, conspiracy, or something of that nature... then yes, according to "this" particular investigation... it would be an exoneration.


That's how this stuff works.

Proof - guilty
No proof - exoneration.


We will have a tangible factual answer to that question when Schiff and the Democrats provide their response.

wphamilton said...

Again, I suspect that any response from Schiff will be little more than a foot stomping, red faced, temper tantrum complaint about the fact that the witch hunt is ending

I suspect that you'll be red faced, embarrassed, after the Democratic report. I also expect it to be an alternate Report btw, not simply a response.

wphamilton said...

The intelligence committee report, Republican or Democratic, is an evaluation of evidence not necessarily a presentation of it. The report could, for example, simply say that examinations of vast amounts of credible evidence shows that Trump is most likely guilty, without explicitly showing any of the evidence. Such a conclusion would not be believable, but it would not be exoneration either.

That's a hypothetical that won't happen. I'm sure that they will cite some of the voluminous evidence regarding Russia an Trump's campaign people, which we already know exists. Those of us NOT reaching foregone conclusions, that is.

Commonsense said...

The intelligence committee report, Republican or Democratic, is an evaluation of evidence

Or in this case, an evaluation of the absence of evidence.

WP, In order for CH, me or anybody else to be "red faced" or "embarrassed, after the Democratic report", it better contain some concrete evidence of actual collusion.

Not fantasies, or suspicions, or futile hopes that if you keep digging long enough something will turn up.

Because if that's all they got, then you're going to be the one whose red faced with embarrsiment.

wphamilton said...

WP, In order for CH, me or anybody else to be "red faced" or "embarrassed, after the Democratic report", it better contain some concrete evidence of actual collusion.

I expect that it will but regardless of that, CH has wagered his rep on nothing more than a foot-stomping temper tantrum. That's such a long-shot fantasy that it's surely going to be embarrassing for him.

C.H. Truth said...

WP...

Already the Democrats are following my predictions... talking about how they didn't get to interview certain witnesses, didn't get a chance to interview certain witnesses a second time, and ultimately suggesting that the entire process was cut short because of pressures from the White House.

This is exactly the sort of behavior I expected. They have had a year to go through all this stuff, and they know (I know, and I am sure deep down you know) that the only way to keep the fire burning is to suggest that there is still an investigation.


The other thing that is becoming clear comes from Schiff's comments today:

"There is already, in my view, ample evidence in the public domain on the issue of collusion if you're willing to see it"

Which is to say, based on "what is in the public domain" (or already known) that you can make the case of collusion. Do you honestly believe that anyone on the right will be "red faced" is Adam Schiff attempts to tell us that based on what we already know, that we should all believe it points to some sort of criminal collusion?

The only person "red faced" here would be Adam Schiff trying to sell us that sort of B.S.

Anonymous said...


Already the Democrats are following my predictions... talking about how they didn't get to interview certain witnesses, didn't get a chance to interview certain witnesses a second time, and ultimately suggesting that the entire process was cut short because of pressures from the White House.

and some of the more crack pot and conspiratorial democrats are factoring in tillerson's dismissal as "evidence" in the russia probe.

yet wp believes that it's going to be the GOP who's embarrassed.

i'll reserve judgement until the schiff hits the fan.



C.H. Truth said...

Ultimately the "full report" should include pretty much everything and anything that was found (minus any classified details). This will be released as early as later this week.

The summaries or conclusions from both sides can be easily vetted by comparing them to what the final overall report shows.

Reading the tea leafs from both sides, there is nothing to suggest that this full report is going to provide us with any real new information that is not already "in the public domain".

We'll see if the rhetoric changes. But so far, the complaints are about the process, the fact that it's over, and the fact that the "conclusion" is such that suggests there was no collusion. Nobody from Democratic side has complained (to this point) that the GOP is going to be hiding information, leaving out relative facts, or sweeping evidence under the rug.

wphamilton said...

This is exactly the sort of behavior I expected.

Oh I don't doubt that the Democrats will be doing all that and more, but we're talking about their version of the report, if and when it comes out, not their scrambling to make political posture points in the press.

I'm sure that you realize what a reach it is to suggest that their report will be nothing but a red-faced tantrum fit.

wphamilton said...

they know (I know, and I am sure deep down you know) that the only way to keep the fire burning is to suggest that there is still an investigation.

There IS still an investigation. You never actually expected something to come out of this House investigation did you? I'd always looked at it as a side-show, more of a platform for Republicans to defend against the Mueller investigation than anything else.

Commonsense said...

Oh I don't doubt that the Democrats will be doing all that and more, but we're talking about their version of the report, if and when it comes out, not their scrambling to make political posture points in the press.

I will point out that when the Schiff memo came out, it was little different than the political posturing that preceded it.

C.H. Truth said...

WP...

The Congressional intelligence committees are privy to much of the same information (classified or not) as Special Counsel would be. All the raw intelligence from the FBI would be out there for Schiff and the Democrats to see.

It seems odd for you to assume

1) that there is proof of criminal conspiracy or collusion
2) that the House intelligence report would not reveal it

It's almost as if you believe that there is some secret evidence somewhere that is just waiting to reveal itself.

wphamilton said...

How naive, to believe that a House committee investigation is equal to an independent Special Investigation.

C.H. Truth said...

How naive, to believe that a House committee investigation is equal to an independent Special Investigation.

Isn't that basically what Schiff is arguing? That the Congressional investigation should jump through all the same hoops as the Special Counsel because Special Counsel's job is not to "inform the public"?

I am not arguing that they are the same. I am stating the fact that the House Intelligence committee has classified clearance and has access to the same basic raw intelligence that Special Counsel would have.

wphamilton said...

They don't have access to it, if they never looked into it. There's a list of raw intelligence encompassing 21 pages, that the Committee presently has ignored ... the list that you call a foot-stomping temper tantrum.

Even aside from that, why on Earth would you think that the committee had every bit of information that Mueller has? The idea seems absurd.

C.H. Truth said...

There's a list of raw intelligence encompassing 21 pages, that the Committee presently has ignored

If all they have is a list of names and rumors... that would suggest that "everybody" in the intelligence community has ignored the same list of names and rumors to date. Otherwise there would be more "raw intelligence" than a list of names and rumors.

We've already had four investigations that have been going on for nearly two years, mostly chasing down dubious leads from totally unverified paid opposition research from a foreign spy who was paying Russian sources for dirt. 99% of the dossier appears to be fake to date, but we are still chasing down everything related.

Even aside from that, why on Earth would you think that the committee had every bit of information that Mueller has?

The Congressional intelligence committees not only have the same level of classification clearance as people working on the Mueller probe, they have oversight responsibilities of the FBI and others in the intelligence community.

It's possibly (as you are suggesting) that the FBI and other intelligence communities "hid" raw intelligence from the oversight committees, while providing it to special counsel... but that would be a pretty damn big breach of protocol, and possibly even illegal.

Do I expect that there is information from follow up interviews (and such) that Mueller and gang may have gathered since they started the probe? Sure, as much as you would expect a team of prosecutors (not investigators) who have been spending time indicting people for things that happened years ago, indicting people for process crimes that the FBI chose not to charge the same people with, and indicting foreigners from information taken from magazine articles.

But the raw intelligence from the FBI and other intelligence resources... everything that prompted that special counsel. There is no reason to believe that the congressional committees are not privy to 100% of that.