First of all, the fact that some are declaring it a dead heat, while others are declaring a Lamb victory is sort of irrelevant at this point. The district will no longer be a district in seven months. The fact of the matter is that it turned out to be a close race in a district where there had been a long serving Republican, and where Donald Trump has won by a fairly convincing margin.
That being said, Pennsylvania 18 is not unlike many swing districts out there that Republicans currently hold. Even as Republicans have been winning, the actual make up of this district shows that there are 70,000 more registered Democrats than there are Republicans. These are the sorts of districts (especially when they are open seats) where a long standing trend can be rendered meaningless, if the challengers can sort of "reset" the narrative.
One thing to consider here is that Donald Trump still holds a 90% favorability with the people who voted for him in 2016. Overall, 56% of Republicans have a "very favorable" feeling towards the President, while only 32% of Republicans have a "very favorable" feeling towards the Republican Party in general (econTabReport.pdf). To me it would seem counter-intuitive to select candidates in these swing districts that are typical Republicans who appear to be running away from the President.
Truth is that Rick Saccone was not an inspired Candidate. While there were some grumblings that he didn't work hard enough with his fundraising, I would offer that a lack of fundraising suggests a lack of enthusiasm for Saccone in general. The Republicans might want to reconsider the strategy of running room temperature candidates.
On the flip side, the Democrats ran a Candidate who sounded like Donald Trump. He ran against Washington, against the status quo. He talked about taking action. Getting things done. He's a former Marine who actually praises the President on his own campaign site. He ran ads showing himself shooting guns. Held a political rally at a gun show. If you read through much of his website, you might assume he was the Republican candidate.
Conclusion:
Last week the Democrats were disappointed in their results in Texas. But the situation in Texas was pretty black and white. You have a situation in Texas there the lines are drawn. The differences are significant. There are conservatives, there are liberals, and you know who is who.
But in many of the races where Democrats have done well, both the Republican and the Democrat have raced towards the middle... and what you ended up with is shades of grey.
If I was advising the GOP right now, I would tell them to find conservative candidates who are passionate about what they believe in. They don't have to be exactly in the mold of Donald Trump, but they absolutely cannot be in the mold of the Paul Ryan Mitch McConnell business as usual type either.
If I was advising the Democrats right now, I would tell them that they are on to something with candidates like Lamb. They would do well to play off of the themes that have been successful (changing Washington, getting things done) and try not to take all of this as a validation of liberal ideals.
73 comments:
Pres. Warren.
The Washington Times reported that Cherokee genealogist Twila Barnes wrote in a 2016 blog that the story doesn't make sense. Barnes, who has researched Warren's family and found no evidence of Native American ancestry, researched the marriage of Pauline Reed and Donald Herring and found it appeared to be an ordinary wedding.
“The problem with Warren’s story is that none of the evidence supports it,” Barnes wrote. “Her genealogy shows no indication of Cherokee ancestry. Her parents’ wedding doesn’t resemble an elopement. And additional evidence doesn’t show any indication of her Herring grandparents being Indian haters.”
The district will no longer be a district in seven months. The fact of the matter is that it turned out to be a close race in a district where there had been a long serving Republican, a
Which proves what, CH...you had a horrible candidate who pulled a hillary with Lamb supporters who hate the pres. , hate the country and god....reiminds me of the witch...WIth redistricting....those 14 R seats in PA could all be in jeopardy.....Hope saccone runs again.....Lamb ran a smart campaign and maybe a few others will take the cue and learn from him....=20 for donnie to a narrow win so far....oh well spin that CH, it is an ugly picture.....
Good morning Opie.
Denny...
are you attempting to set some sort of record for the most grammatical and spelling errors in a single comment?
I might actually have a response if the multitude of letters you typed on your keyboard came out with some semblance of a real thought pattern.
Lamb ran as a conservative. Opie wants more to put on lambs wool.
Denny...
are you attempting to set some sort of record for the most grammatical and spelling errors in a single comment?
Incoherence is his default mode.
I looked up his background. It's quite remarkable. A Marine, lawyer, federal prosecutor, and has taken away a congressional seat in an overwhelming Republican district. It's more than the negative popularity of the President. The rambling and incoherent campaign speech by the President was repudiated by the voters. It's just one short term congressional seat. But if he holds onto the sest, don't be surprised to see this man giving the premier speech at the 2020 Democratic national convention.
The Democrats have to find candidates who fit the voters beliefs. Lamb is not a liberal, nor is he a conservative, because he's pro union, working people supporter. He refused corporate donations. Someone like this could perhaps reconstruct the FDR coalition, minus the racist vote that the President endorsed by his "both sides have good people" statement.
Alky has a white Jesus, lamb.
Hb admits dems are not with the people, they have to be "lambed" wear sheep clothing to get elected.
"The Democrats have to find candidates who fit the voters beliefs. Lamb is not a liberal, nor is he a conservative, because he's pro union, working people supporter."
He ran as a conservative.
Black Jesus Economy saw a drop of 2 % in union membership in California.
Alky get real the radicals of Progressivism.
"The New Deal coalition was the alignment of interest groups and voting blocs in the United States that supported the New Deal and voted for Democratic presidential candidates from 1932 until the late 1960s."
Is this really to ground you believe you're standing on?
CH, we have come together my friend.
"If I was advising the GOP right now, I would tell them to find conservative candidates who are passionate about what they believe in. They don't have to be exactly in the mold of Donald Trump, but they absolutely cannot be in the mold of the Paul Ryan Mitch McConnell business as usual type either.
If I was advising the Democrats right now, I would tell them that they are on to something with candidates like Lamb. They would do well to play off of the themes that have been successful (changing Washington, getting things done) and try not to take all of this as a validation of liberal ideals."
I would add that Trump is not a validation of conservative ideals. He has repudiated much of the conservative ideals. Exhibit one: The tariffs are under attack from all sides, and remarkably most of the congressional leadership.
In all the stories about PA18, I missed any mention about voter turnout.
I suspect the turnout was quite low which would be hard to make any definitive conclusions about the low.
However, if the turnout was adequate approximation of the midterms then you can conclude some things.
1. The historic trend of incumbent parties losing in the first midterm after a presidential election continues to be a big tail wind for the Democrats.
2. As CH said the strategy of running a Democrat as a moderate to neo-conservative candidate and away from the liberal leadership is a winning one in Trump heavy districts.
The GOP has to have a better strategy of tying the Democrat candidate to the liberal #resist Democrat leadership in Washington. For example: Someone should have pin Lamb down on whether he'll vote for articles of impeachment against Donald Trump if he was elected to the house.
3. Candidates matter even when the district heavenly leans one way or the other. The Democrats did a much better job of recruiting an attractive candidate than the GOP did.
K'putz you should quit before you make another example of the President coalition, that lost the popular vote by almost three million votes.
I would add that Trump is not a validation of conservative ideals.
The battle is for the heart of working class voter who is socially conservative but also tends to be pro protectionist.
They understand that the good jobs for them are in manufacturing.
And the person who will promote and protect those jobs will be the one who gets their vote.
CS, except for:I suspect the turnout was quite low which would be hard to make any definitive conclusions about the low." You didn't note that the Democrats got the write in voters to get out in big numbers. That provided the margin in heavily red districts across the state.
You didn't note that the Democrats got the write in voters to get out in big numbers. That provided the margin in heavily red districts across the state.
That actually proves the point about low turnout elections. A concentrated effort is enough to skew the results in a special election.
That's why you can't make any broad generalizations about trends. It would be based on an anomaly.
But it's good spin.
I've seldom seen a more flagrant attempt to lipstick a pig.
According to you the Democrat Lamb is winning because he's "like Trump", and Trump's favorability ... is bad news for Democrats who are winning in one of his strongest districts.
Uh, sure CH. We'll go with that. He ran against the status quo in Washington, ok we can accept that ... but you have to realize that it's Trump's status quo now. Republican "status quo". Running against this "status quo" doesn't make him Trump Light nor "like a Republican."
WP did you actually look at Lamb's positions during the campaign?
Laurence Tribe has gone bonkers like Roger
Not at all. It looks like Russia picked Tillerson to be a Putin puppet, then pushed Trump to fire Tillerson when he proved to be an unreliable puppet. No mystery there.
LMAO
WP...
I stated a fact. Lamb ran as a pro-gun, change Washington, moderate to conservative Democrat. Not only did he not run an "anti-Trump" campaign, but he even praised the President on his own website.
There is no other implication here, other than stating the fact.
Wp, made it easy for your low iq.
I posted them here.
Congressman Lamb.
He is for more tax cuts for middle income earners.
Gun control: He's called for a stronger system of background checks but no new gun restrictions. "I believe we have a pretty good law on the books and it says on paper that there are a lot of people who should never get guns in their hands," Lamb said.
Tariffs: He supports President Donald Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs, saying at a debate that "we have to take some action to level the playing field."
Abortion: Lamb personally opposes abortion but backs the Supreme Court's decision legalizing it. "
Nice Link Cali.
This rocks.
"Wall Street should be thrilled by a couple of sentences that came out of President Donald Trump's mouth on Tuesday before he jetted off to California for an immigration event.
In confirming reports that he was strongly leaning towards CNBC senior contributor Larry Kudlow as his next National Economic Council director, Trump said he wants different views on free-trade represented in Oval Office debates."
I hope it happens.
Tariffs: He supports President Donald Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs, saying at a debate that "we have to take some action to level the playing field."
He is pro union.His opponent was in favor of right to work for less jobs.
I don't agree, but he makes a valid point for his constituents.
I've always been in conflict with the interpretation of the second amendment allowing almost everyone should be able to carry side arms, in a return to the "wild west".
Supporting the right to abortion based upon the law, is an honest position, not often taken by politicians of any stripe.
"Sounds like Trump" and "looks like a Republican" are implications in my book, and not factual statements. Nor credible opinions.
Lamb was critical of Obamacare repeal, calling for bipartisan work to improve it.
Lamb called the tax cuts a giveaway to wealthy Americans.
Lamb supports the Supreme Court decision legalizing abortion.
And let's not ignore Trump's efforts on Saccone's behalf - it's not looking like there are any coattails here, either from Trump or the Republican's work with Obamacare and taxes.
wp, he is trying to be calm in the face of a hurricane.
Democrats have now taken unlikely seats in AL and PA. When we snowflakes get together we become a blue moon hurricane. #neveragain
Opinions about gun control policies aren't as split along party lines as some of you seem to believe. You're letting your political preconceptions override your objective judgement, and that's why you're all so conflicted about the Democrat Lamb's apparent "pro-gun" position.
Conner Lamb says that "that new gun laws aren’t the answer to preventing more mass shootings" and that a proposed ban on high-capacity ammunition magazines isn't the place to start. He calls for a stronger system of background checks.
So what, I've said the same things here and I'm not "pro-gun". I am not a Republican, and I certainly don't "sound like Trump". Yet some of you react as if that position makes him a stealth republican, and is some sort of victory for Republican policies. Get a grip, folks.
"Sounds like Trump" and "looks like a Republican"
I am pretty sure you didn't vote for Trump. I know a lot of people who did vote for Trump, and the reasons why they voted for Trump. Lamb used much of the same sort of tactics... change Washington, criticize the status quo, demand that he can get things done.
If that sort of message appealed to you in 2016, it probably still appeals to you in 2017.
Saccone appeared (at least to me) to be a tired run of the mill generic GOP candidate who would just go to Washington for the ride. Nothing about his candidacy inspired me (or apparently much of anyone else).
We can argue around the edges as to how much like a Republican he looked like. Holding rallies at Gun shows is not generally a Democratic stunt. Running ads talking about your Marine background and shooting off guns is not something you expect your Democrat to do. Making a point to agree with President Trump on multiple subjects on your website is not a trait I associate with Democrats.
This is not someone who ran the classic "Anti-Trump" heavy duty liberal cause Identity politics campaign... and he beat a Republican where he wasn't supposed to.
Why are you loath to give credit where credit is due, and admit that he ran a good race for the circumstances (even if that race was not what you might like to see a Democrat generally do).
Liddle Scotty...
Denny...are you attempting to set some sort of record for the most grammatical and spelling errors in a single comment?
Fuck you if that is the best you got....which lately seems to be fact,.....
Saccone was a shitty candidate who can thank Trump for even being this close
Conclusion....Another awful day for trump and his disciples .....It will ge a whole lot worse before it gets better. Seems the sycophants have been blinded by the donnie and are jumping ship in droves....Hope you all see the mistakes of your ways before he destroys the GOP.....
A PVI of R+11 is a swing district?
Blogger Roger Amick said...
wp, he is trying to be calm in the face of a hurricane.
a hurricane, alky?
good God you are delusional. you beat a guy in AL that had more baggage than baggage claim at hartsfield, and you just effectively TIED a guy who could be a trump clone: you couldn't even beat saccone by a standard polling MOE.
lamb is -
pro-trump tax cuts
pro-gun
pro-life
and anti-pelosi.
LOL. your hurricane is more of a popcorn fart. this is far more of a repudiation of far left liberal identity politics than it is a repudiation of trump.
I for one hope that the GOP establishment agrees that Saccone can thank Trump for his even being close in one of the strongest Republican districts, and I'll be happy for all of the other Republican candidates to have similar reasons to "thank Trump".
I can see it now: We may be losing all of these special elections, in districts that should be sure wins, but at least we can Thank Trump that we're even close. They're only winning because they're acting like us! So let's double down on deficit-building giveaways to the rich, trashing consumer protections, trashing the environment, handicap a few more government agencies and alienate some more allies, so we can "thank Trump" even more in the mid-term elections. They'll never top that! Yeah, that's the ticket!
btw...
isn't today "national teenage drama queen crisis actor day."
Yet some of you react as if that position makes him a stealth republican
it makes him a young joe manchin. he's a rootin,' tootin,' gun totin' redneck aw shucks centrist democrat...
right up until it's time for a close critical vote. then he'll do what manchin does - capitulate to party leadership.
so much drama for such an inconsequential election.
Republicans Brace for More Retirements
First Read: “Finally, last night’s result could very well scare off a handful of GOP incumbents who are on the fence about running in 2018. The good news for Republicans is that many filing deadlines have already passed. The bad news is that one or two more GOP retirements in semi-competitive districts could end up proving decisive in November’s race for control of Congress. That’s maybe why Republicans have been spinning the results so much — essentially saying, ‘Hey, last night wasn’t THAT bad’ — so they can prevent more retirements.”
Trump Open to Short Term DACA Deal
President Trump “is willing to entertain a temporary extension of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program in exchange for border-wall funding in the upcoming spending bill,” the Washington Post reports.
“The move, which White House officials communicated to Republican congressional leaders this week, represents a stunning shift for Trump, who has insisted for months on including strict limits on legal immigration as part of any deal to protect DACA recipients. A deal could largely remove immigration from the national agenda until after the 2020 election.”
The fucking "pastor" continues his spam dumping from political_lire
ASSHOLE, we all know how to get to that website, give it a rest
Or as Trump would say, "What a son-of-a-bitch"
ROFLMFAO !!
This is awkward.
Chair of House Democratic Caucus Says It's 'Sexist' for GOP to Bring Up Pelosi in Congressional Races
House Democratic Caucus Chair Joe Crowley (D-NY) responded Wednesday to a question about Democratic candidate Conor Lamb in the Pennsylvania 18th Congressional District special election particularly distancing himself from House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. The reporter asked if that was “some kind of model” for other Democrats.
"This election was not about Nancy Pelosi," Crowley replied. "Conor Lamb really localized the issue."
"The attempt to nationalize it by the Republicans– I think they need to get a new gamebook," he added. "The attempts to use Nancy Pelosi, it's failing them at this point."
"And I think quite frankly it's sexist," he emphasized. "So they need to move on from that."
In other words the GOP should have San Fran Nan's picture on every tweet, instagram, mailing piece, and TV ad from now until election day.
So PA 16 was only a local election with NO implications beyond that race.
Lamb will have to vote on how he ran. Right?
San Fran DiFi is not liberal enough she failed to get her parties nod.
"The attempts to use Nancy Pelosi, it's failing them at this point."
heh. hardly. she has a mini-stroke every time she opens her mouth. the GOP needs to exploit her at every opportunity.
Bonus Quote of the Day
“We should be able to elect a box of hammers in this district. If we’re losing here, you can bet there is a Democratic wave coming.”
— Republican strategist Mike Murphy, quoted by the Washington Post, on yesterday’s Pennsylvania special congressional election.
Moronic KD the sterile heifer lover said....
So PA 16 was only a local election with NO implications beyond that race.
Yeah sure.....a 20 point swing in a trump area is a national headline....And lamb is correct...Pelosi needs to go..Have said that many times....In Ga special, the R kept Nancy's face plastered in ads.....it was very effective..... time to move Ms Botox out!!!! I think the D's will see that is what is needed to be done....
Also amusing is how many idiots are now harping on Lamb ran as a republicon.....Our KD was the first and I am certain he picked that up from Rusbo.....such a non thinking echo chamber you are.....LOLOLOLOL
Kudlow the disgraced and fired cocaine abusing economist from bear sterns is trumps pick to replace cohn.....too bad he does not have to be confirmed or get a clearance...his cocaine abuse would be reason to fail a background check.....LOL
Or as Trump would say, "What a son-of-a-bitch, that "pastor james boswell, normal Illinois
"
ROFLMFAO !!!
"Lamb is about as close to being a Republican as a Democrat can get. We’re talking about a candidate who is a Catholic former Marine who supports fracking, opposes Nancy Pelosi and literally launched his campaign with an ad showing him firing an AR-15."
Hey, maybe even I can support him.
ROFLMFAO !!!
Hey, maybe even I can support him.
Well isn't that a smelly tub of kim chee....
Hillary Trashes white Men, now white women.
"From Democratic senators to even her former campaign manager, there is a seeming consensus across the board that even “sugarcoating” her comments this week don’t make them any easier to swallow.
During former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s appearance in India over the weekend, she claimed she lost the 2016 presidential race in part because white women didn’t stand up to the men in their lives pressuring them to vote for Donald Trump.
“We do not do well with white men and we don’t do well with married, white women,” Clinton said. “And part of that is an identification with the Republican Party, and a sort of ongoing pressure to vote the way your husband, your boss, your son, whoever, believes you should.”
The Trump Effect strikes again!
63 US House Seats
6. US Senate Seats
Obama losses in his first mid term.
Do those on the left think it will be that kind of election in 2018?
Kudlow will be a disaster. After the nice run of the DJOI there is usually a "correction". It could dwarf the Great Recession.
It was the eve of the biggest economic collapse since the Great Depression. Many on Wall Street worried that a recession loomed and that the housing bubble was bursting.
And then there was Larry Kudlow, the man President Trump just tapped to be his top economic adviser.
“Despite all the doom and gloom from the economic pessimistas, the resilient U.S. economy continues moving ahead,” Kudlow wrote on Dec. 7, 2007, in National Review, predicting that gloomy forecasters would “wind up with egg on their faces.” Kudlow, who previously derided as “bubbleheads” those who warned about a housing bubble, now wrote that “very positive” news in housing should “cushion” falling home sales and prices.
“There’s no recession coming. The pessimistas were wrong. It’s not going to happen,” wrote Kudlow. “ . . . The Bush boom is alive and well. It’s finishing up its sixth consecutive year with more to come. Yes, it’s still the greatest story never told.”
If that was the greatest story, this should be a close runner-up: Trump has just put the country’s economic fate in the hands of the man who has arguably been more publicly and consistently wrong about the economy than any person alive.
Kudlow will be a disaster.
I'm so relieved you said that Roger.
Trump has just put the country’s economic fate in the hands of the man who has arguably been more publicly and consistently wrong about the economy than any person alive.
heh. kudlow doesn't hold a candle to krugman when it comes to being publicly and consistently wrong regarding the economy, alky...
"It really does now look like President Donald J. Trump. And markets are plunging. When might we expect them to recover? A first-pass answer is never."
or one of my personal recent faves:
Paul Krugman
Verified account
@paulkrugman
Follow Follow @paulkrugman
More
Cholera. In a US territory. Among US citizens. In the 21st century. Heckuva job, Trumpie.
9:37 AM - 30 Sep 2017
https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/914167277175623681
except... there was no cholera.
so alky, snicker and sneer at the kudlow pick all you want. it will never overtake the the asshattery of the world's greatest economic fuckwit and darling of the left - paul krugman.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2016/12/larry-kudlow-is-usually-wrong.html
A little dated, but ludlow is nothing more than an incorrect drug and alcohol abuser that you now like because trump tells you to.. Idiot...
I rarely read Krugman. I have prescriptions for the Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, New York Times and the Los Angeles Times. I also get the LA Times daily paper.
I'm far more informed than the racist rodent bastard.
Do we actually agree?
Prescriptions?
Program, Lyrica, Cymbalta and Protenix. Vitamin supplements. I used to take 16 pills in the morning.
CS, I have recovered completely from the transplant surgery and all the associated issues. I have been able to return to a regular life.
Here's a wonderful situation occurred yesterday at my AA meeting, as I walked in, there was an older man who I had never seen before.
After a few minutes, I found myself sitting right next to Bob Dylan. Seriously it was him. But he wasn't a famous singer-songwriter Bob Dylan. He was "I'm Bob, and I'm an alcoholic".
I held his hand during the final prayers.
It's was pretty damn cool.
Trump administration finally announces Russia sanctions
By Kevin Liptak, CNN White House Producer
Updated Mar 15, 2018
Washington (CNN) - The Trump administration announced Thursday it is enacting new sanctions on Russia for its election meddling, a month-and-a-half after missing a congressionally mandated deadline.
The new punishments include sanctions on the Internet Research Agency, a Russian troll farm that produced divisive political posts on American social media platforms during the 2016 presidential election. Yevgeniy Viktorovich Prigozhin, a financial backer to the Internet Research Agency with deep ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin, is also included.
Known as "Putin's chef," Prigozhin was indicted by special counsel Robert Mueller earlier this year for his involvement with the Russian troll farm.
In total, the administration applied new sanctions on five entities and 19 individuals on Thursday, including Russians who posed as Americans and posted content online as part of the IRA's attempts to sow discord ahead of the presidential contest.
The sanctions were applied through executive power as well as through the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, which Congress initially passed this summer hoping to pressure Trump into punishing Russia for its election interference.
Trump signed the bill reluctantly in August, claiming it impinged upon his executive powers and could dampen his attempts to improve ties with Moscow.
The measure imposed an October deadline on the administration to produce lists of individuals and entities that could be subject to potential sanctions, and a January deadline to impose them. The law required the administration to identify entities that conduct significant business with the Russian defense and intelligence sectors.
The administration missed both by several weeks, claiming necessary work was underway at the State and Treasury Departments to complete the lists.
The delay was seen as sign of Trump's unwillingness to punish Russia for its meddling, which he has downplayed in the past. Members of Congress expressed frustration that their law, which passed almost unanimously, wasn't being enacted.
On Thursday, administration officials insisted the new measures weren't the end of their efforts to punish Russia.
"By no means will this constitute the end to our ongoing campaign to instruct Mr. Putin to change his behavior," a senior administration official told reporters.
© 2018 Cable News Network, Inc
A Time Warner Company
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Prescriptions?
he didn't get it and failed to mention the opiates
But he wasn't a famous singer-songwriter Bob Dylan.
Probably not, because the famous singer-songwriter Bob Dylan is in Europe on tour.
LMAO
Republicans, who during the campaign blasted Lamb as a typical tax and spend, Nancy Pelosi Democrat, have increasingly taken on the position that his victory came because he acted like a Republican.
It was his twin brother. Looked exactly like Dylan
Blogger Roger Amick said...
Republicans, who during the campaign blasted Lamb as a typical tax and spend, Nancy Pelosi Democrat, have increasingly taken on the position that his victory came because he acted like a Republican.
- bob dylan.
THE bob dylan. like serious guys.
http://bobdylan.com/date/2018-03-22-altice-arena-lisbon-portugal/
He's in Portugal
He looked exactly like the pictures online
He's in Portugal
and that would be in europe, alky.
not in a drunks r us meeting in east shithole mexifornia.
hey rog, marvel in the magnificence of union construction work:
MIAMI (Reuters) - Six to 10 people were killed when a newly installed pedestrian bridge spanning several lanes of traffic collapsed at Florida International University on Thursday, U.S. Senator Bill Nelson of Florida told local TV station CBS Miami.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/foot-bridge-collapses-florida-university-several-hurt-reports-181952337.html
must've been the "road pizza local 666"
Post a Comment