If polls underestimate Republicans by 2-3 points—which is a very normal-sized polling error—the House is a district-by-district nail-biter.— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 22, 2018
If polls underestimate Dems by 2-3 points, their path to victory in the Senate is much more viable; toss-ups go their way, TN/TX close etc.
Now I would actually offer that if the polls are fairly accurate that we are in a district to district nail-biter. That being said, I don't have the sophisticated formula that Silver use that provides Democrats with a one to two point adjusted advantage, so I have to sort of go with what the numbers actually show. I would offer that if the polls are underestimating Republicans by two or three points, that the House will remain GOP with a handful of seats to spare.
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In terms of the Senate, the polls would need to be off quite a bit more than two to three points. Even if the Democrats won all of the close races (Florida, Montana, Indiana, Missouri, Arizona, and Nevada)... they still would need to pull of an larger upset in either Texas, Tennessee, or North Dakota, all races where they are behind by at least than six and a half percent in the RCP averages, and more than five percent in Silver's "adjusted polling averages".
23 comments:
i think silver's prowess as a pollster is overstated. he seems to me to basically be a charlatan whose goal is to have his predictions be close enough to continue to pick up big paychecks from those who have fallen under the spell of his bullshit.
Silver better be projecting like his reputation is on the line. Because it is.
Silver remains nothing if not consistent.
He has yet (in his entire career) put his money on a Republican to win a close Senate race, or a Republican Presidential candidate to win a close state... and ended up being wrong.
Every time Silver has been wrong, it's been because he projected a Democrat to win and they didn't.
The statistical "odds" of that being random are pretty much non-existent.
Every time Silver has been wrong, it's been because he projected a Democrat to win and they didn't.
precisely my point. how the fuck does this guy continue to get paid for his "expertise?"
he's like the paul krugman of polling.
Liberals don't need to be "right" to be "correct".
Over 100k have signed up to attend the trump Cruz rally. People are camping out 24 hours before.
Networks puffing up beto are repeating 2016. There is no blue wave. Trump support still understated because of the violence and harassment that comes with admitting it publicly.
Sometimes I think his projections involved a magic 8 ball.
re: your head scratcher post -
nate seems to be an adherent to w.c. fields' "if you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bullshit."
Nate Silver agrees with me... sort of.
Well, that is sort of amusing CH>...trying to blow yourself is a hoot.....LOLOLOL
Trump has been tweeting about the caravan of refugees is proof that the Democrats are going to commit voter fraud at levels that suggest the election will be illegitimate.
All levels of government and Law Enforcement are watching carefully for VOTER FRAUD, including during EARLY VOTING. Cheat at your own peril. Violators will be subject to maximum penalties, both civil and criminal!
Every time you see a Caravan, or people illegally coming, or attempting to come, into our Country illegally, think of and blame the Democrats for not giving us the votes to change our pathetic Immigration Laws! Remember the Midterms! So unfair to those who come in legally.
Blogger Roger Amick said...
Trump has been tweeting about the caravan of refugees is proof that the Democrats are going to commit voter fraud at levels that suggest the election will be illegitimate.
that's actually a lie, alky...
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
why do you lie, alky?
why alky, why?
100,000 people have RSVP'ed for the texas trump/cruz rally, alky.
one hundred fucking thousand.
heh.
10 of 10
Two people burn a United States flag during a protest in favor of the caravan of migrants that is currently stuck on the Guatemala-Mexico border, in front of the American embassy, in Tegucigalpa, Honduras, Friday, Oct. 19, 2018. The U.S.-bound caravan that once totaled more than 3,000 Central American migrants looked to be about a third that size Saturday morning, when its remaining members woke up on a bridge that divides the borders of Guatemala and Mexico and waited to get past a crossing guarded by hundreds of Mexican federal police. (AP Photo/Fernando Antonio)
http://www.ny1.com/nyc/manhattan/ap-top-news/2018/10/20/the-latest-migrants-wait-to-cross-border-with-mexico
hey rog,
i'm curious as to your opinion of what to do with the invaders from shithole-istan when they reach the US - messico border.
should we mow them down with machine gun fire, or do we just drop one MOAB and vaporize them all at once?
i'm leaning MOAB. you know - shock and awe and all that shit. what say you?
also, can we send a hit squad after soros like we did after bin laden? i don't know about you but i'm getting sick of his bullshit, and i know he's behind the beaner invasion.
whattaya think rog?
and this is how they're making such good time on their way here...
https://twitter.com/i/status/1054204664831459328
Maybe Hurricane Willa will take care of a few
Roger
We need to take unsubstantiated allegations of any wrong doing very seriously in 2018. Based on recent events, I would say unsubstantiated allegations of widespread cheating should induce the following:
1) the delay of any elections
2) the appointment of special counsel to sort through it all
Once special counsel has sorted through the unsubstantiated allegations, then we can hold the election?
Fair enough?
btw.... are you still calling Kavanaugh a sexual predator?
Should be good, IF, alky answers.
So the invading hoards have burned two US Flags.
NICE TOUCH.
New York Times columnist Paul Krugman fears that President Donald Trump’s insistent complaints of “voter fraud” are a setup to deny the legitimacy of a Democratic majority in the House should the party win in the midterm elections.
Those who don’t believe such a scenario is possible “haven’t been paying attention,” the Nobel laureate warned.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/paul-krugman-warns-trump-poised-065936913.html
thank goodness for all of us that the alky has been paying attention.
and i'm with you CH... just to be safe we need to immediately suspend all elections and assign a special counsel AND the FBI to investigate these allegations. i would propose an attorney hand picked by trump. my choice would be ann coulter. now, this may take several months. YEARS even. but the sanctity and security of our democracy is well worth it.
I feel much better now that Krugman has predicted a Democrat win.
Yep. That seals it.
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