A mini Biden comeback might foil Bloomberg's big plan!

So the rumors of Joe Biden's demise might have been slightly exaggerated. Generally someone who bombed in both Iowa and New Hampshire would be dead. But Biden seems to be polling in second place in Nevada and first place in South Carolina. If that holds up, then he isn't quite dead yet!

Is he still a favorite to win the nomination? I seriously doubt that. But I believe he is a favorite at this point to do well enough in Nevada and South Carolina to take his campaign into Super Tuesday and muddle up the establishment Democrat plan to consolidate to stop Bernie Sanders. While I am sure many would like to see the field winnowed down to two or three heading into Super Tuesday, there may be reason for Biden to stick around. In fact, it might become a strategy for Biden (and others) to stick around in "hopes" of a brokered convention, where anyone could still end up being the nominee once the mayhem sets in.

The fact of the matter is that Super Tuesday is going to be about consistency. There are fourteen states, including California and Texas and there will be nearly 1600 delegates pledged on that day. In order to win delegates, a candidate much meet a threshold of at least 15% in the state to garner any delegates. They then need to also garner at least 15% in the congressional districts to receive any district delegates. So a candidate that can garner 20-25% across the board in a crowded field is likely to be much better off than someone who gets 30% in seven states and 10% in the other seven. Obviously a person garnering 30% will get more delegates than the person garnering 20% - but that difference is not going to make up for being shut out in other states.

The reality is that right now, the only candidate polling fairly consistently over 15% everywhere is Bernie. The chances of Sanders being shut out of delegates in more than a couple of states is not very likely. The chance that Biden, Bloomberg and the rest get shut out in many of them is much more likely. Candidates like Buttigieg or Steyer might decide to focus on two or three states and concede the rest, just to pick up valuable delegates. Even Biden and his limited resources may be forced to focus on a handful of states to pick up delegates. Only Bernie and Bloomberg have the resources to make a play in all 14 states and only one of them is currently polling high enough to make it really count.