Monday, February 24, 2020

Has Bloomberg stalled?

Last four polls show Bloomberg in third or lower

Polling Data

PollDateSampleSandersBidenBloombergWarrenButtigiegKlobucharSteyerGabbardSpread
RCP Average2/13 - 2/22--29.317.215.313.29.86.32.21.4Sanders +12.1
CBS News/YouGov2/20 - 2/226498 LV2817131910521Sanders +9
ABC News/Wash Post2/14 - 2/17408 RV321614128721Sanders +16
Emerson2/16 - 2/18573 LV292214128634Sanders +7
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl2/14 - 2/17426 LV2715141413721Sanders +12
SurveyUSA2/13 - 2/171022 LV291818101242--Sanders +11
NPR/PBS/Marist2/13 - 2/16527 RV311519128920Sanders +12

It may or may not be a sign of things to come on Super Tuesday, as the Bloomberg ads might be more of a factor in the 14 states than they would be nationally. That being said, a portion of what Bloomberg has been running is certainly for a national audience, and most certainly people are aware of his poor debate performance.

He will get another chance in the South Carolina debate, but as they say... there is never a second chance to make a good first impression, and the Nevada debate was certainly Bloomberg's first impression on a lot of voters. Can't imagine it was a good one to much of anyone.

Meanwhile, most of the state polling still shows Bernie at or near the top in most every state. There may be a state or two that Bloomberg might be ahead in, and a state or two that Biden might be ahead in and Klobuchar might run well in Minnesota, etc, etc... but the key to garnering a majority (or plurality) of delegates will be a consistent run through the 14 states. Right now, Bernie is the only one consistently polling in every state.

Another thing to consider is that most all of the candidates are now buying ads in the Super Tuesday States, and this will provide Bloomberg with his first competition there. Certainly, these ad buys for these other candidates could cause Bloomberg to take some polling hits in these Super Tuesday states.

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