I asked a co-worker about Michael Bloomberg...

She didn't hardly know who he was?

How can this be, I asked? He is peppering both television and radio here in Minnesota with constant advertising. You cannot hardly turn on the television or the radio without hearing a Bloomberg ad (or I should say one of two Bloomberg ads). After the 30th or 40th time you hear them, it just sort of gets drowned out. But you cannot get away from them. Or so I thought!

What was her explanation? Does she live under a rock?

Actually her family doesn't watch much television in her home, and when they do it's generally Netflix or Hulu. She listens to XM radio, or connects her phone and listens to Spotify or podcasts in her car when she drives. She quite frankly literally would not have heard  a single political ad (from anyone) based on her media habits? She does pay attention to the news online, but because Bloomberg is not part of the debates or early primary states, nobody has been talking about him.

One has to wonder how common this is and whether or not this will weaken the advertising that candidates rely on. I thought about it and my wife (who is a half a generation younger than I) is also someone who generally watches Netflix, Hulu, or recorded network shows that can be fast forwarded through the commercials. She also listens to satellite radio, or connects her phone for her own playlists or podcasts when driving. She likely has not heard any political ads either. Neither of my sons watches any television and both listen to their phones through Bluetooth in their cars. If this is the habits of people in their early forties and also those in their late teens and early twenties, it's probably how a lion's share of post-boomer Americans live their lives. I have to confess that I am the same when it comes to television, but still listen to the radio on my way to work (although I have been wanting XM radio, so I could join the crowd all together in the near future).

In 2016, Trump got by spending less than a third of what Hillary spent from primary to general election. What he did was collect a lot of free media attention with his antics, large campaign rallies, and everything else associated with him. Some determined that he had received in the vicinity of a billion dollars worth of publicity (albeit most of it negative). He understood instinctively that you have to generate "news" rather than just spend some money advertising. One has to wonder how this will really affect a race when we might be measuring spending in the hundreds of millions or even in the billions.

What still matters is the average every day volunteer who is willing to go knock doors, register people to vote, and basically go to bat for their candidate of choice. This requires that the Candidates in question have not only a large, but also a very loyal and excited level of support. Why do you believe that Bernie has overtaken Biden as the early favorite? Because he has rabid support willing to go to great lengths to see him win. Biden has tepid support of those who have viewed him as just the candidate most likely to beat Trump. That doesn't necessarily turn into tangible results.

Trump was going to win a Republican primary against whoever came out from the GOP to challenge him. He was going to do so because his support is rabid, loyal, and motivated. His opponent will likely end up being someone with support that is just as rabid, loyal, and motivated. Right now, that candidate is Bernie Sanders. Whether that holds up is anyone's guess. But I am not sure I would bet against it.