To win the nomination outright and avoid brokered convention, one candidate will need to garner 1990 delegates. As you can see, Silver suggests that Sanders will only win about 1538 delegates, which would be not all that close to 1990. Silver at this point makes it just as likely that we see nobody get to 1990 (37%) as we do seeing Bernie get there (37%). He doesn't give any of the remaining candidates more than a 13% chance to get there.
Now this model right now assumes that there are six people in the race collecting delegates. That seems highly unlikely to be the case after North Carolina and I suspect that as more people drop out, that Silver's model will provide for a better chance of someone getting to 1990 and less of a chance that Democrats go into the convention without a known winner.
However, the question becomes, if we end up with a situation that looks similar to what Silver is projecting (Bernie with a plurality of the vote and everyone else significantly behind him) wouldn't that also pretty much assure that Bernie the Socialist would head the ticket? After all, this is the Party of the popular vote and the Party that rejects the concept that someone with a lower vote total should be declared the winner by means of alternative measures (such as the Electoral College). It's part of the reason that so many Democrats want to do away with Caucuses. As much as some Democrats like the idea of a "second choice" ballot, that is simply because they believe it would help them against Republicans. Watch them scream when their own particular favorite (such as Bernie Sanders) ends up getting the most votes and most delegates, but doesn't win the nomination because another Candidate consolidates the "second choice delegates".
So what would the Democrats do if they go into the Convention with Sanders having a reasonably comfortable plurality of the delegates, but not a straight out majority? He's not the best candidate to run against Trump. Everyone (but Bernie supporters) understands this. But to what degree do they crush the Party if they were to give it to one of the also-rans on the "idea" that they would pose a better chance to win. What happens if Bernie get's passed over, and the hand picked candidate loses (like Hillary did)?
All I know is that a brokered convention would be both a circus and a blood bath. Those who feel that someone would come in (Clinton, Kerry, Michelle Obama) and become the nominee would completely crush the Democrats running and their faithful who worked and volunteered for their favorite candidates. It may be a good story, but I don't see it happening without tearing the Party apart.
68 comments:
It's become a socialist party. Especially with younger dem voters backing bernie. If they screwbhim again, a major revolt would split the party.
I think it's the beginning of the end of the Democratic Party as we know it.
--Ch un-truth
I thought my thousand year Reich would last a thousand years.
--Adolf Hitler
Trump Claims Right to Interfere In Criminal Cases
President Trump tweeted his first response to Attorney General William Barr’s criticism about meddling in criminal cases last night.
Said Trump: “This doesn’t mean that I do not have, as President, the legal right to do so, I do, but I have so far chosen not to!”
____________
He can't even open his mouth without lying.
Another deep state set up attempt. Those Trump hating attorneys recommend 9 years for stone without getting the approval normally required. Then resign en masse when their outrageous recommendation is rescinded. And Right on cue, dems in Congress and in the media pretend every action taken by Trump or Barr is criminal.
Just like Trump firing woodland and vindman. They pretended that this was criminal when they both serve at the pleasure of the president. Voters have seen this for three years now and won't stand for it.
Sorry Reverend Hypocrite...
But I remember Obama getting involved in everything, even criticizing police who arrested the black professor who was suspiciously breaking into his own house and was reported by a neighbor.
Remember him telling the world that there was not even a "smidgen of corruption" when the Feds were investigating Louis Lerner and the IRS targeting of Conservative groups? You remember the IRS investigation? The one where none of Obama's people answered Congressional subpoenas and they told everyone that Lerner's emails couldn't be turned over because they were accidentally deleted due to a PC hard-drive issue? Isn't that an "impeachable offense"? Nope... Reverent Hypocrisy only believes it's impeachable when the bad orange man does it.
Trump's AG Eric Holder called himself Obama's "wing man" and would never have been man enough to stand up to Obama... considering he spent most of his time bowing to the supreme leader and doing his boss's bidding.
But that was all fine and dandy, when Obama was President, huh?
Bam. Down goes Frazier.
But I remember Obama getting
Your memory is about as credible as trump saying the phone call was perfect!!!!!! BWAAAAAAAAA!!!!! I also remember you once had a brain.....
Funny Lil Schitty,......after the missing e-mails were found.....what did they yield??? Any indictments, arrests or trials???? Or was it just another nothing burger of pomposity you are so famous for!!!!!!!
It will go down as ridiculous as " Kerry in a landslide."
I think it's the beginning of the end of the Democratic Party as we know it.
I think it's the beginning of the end of the Democratic Party as we know it.
Did you miss the part where this is conditional on Bernie winning the plurality of delegates, but not winning the nomination? The entire Bernie crowd, as well as members of the squad (and their fans) would revolt. AOC has already stated that she wishes there was another Party (left of the Democrats) that she could support.
There is a problem with having a big tent and having massive disagreements as to whom should represent that big tent. Mark my words, if the nomination gets taken away from Bernie (assuming he wins the plurality of votes) the shit will hit the fan. Bernie and his fans were one thing in 2016. In 2020 those people are also represented by "The squad" and other younger liberals who are pushing back against the old guard.
Whatever effects Trump may have on the Party are more uniting than dividing (thus the 95% approvals with Republicans). It may have driven a few people out, but it really consolidated the rest. Moreover, Trump is (at best) going to be heading the Party for less than another 5 years or so. The "Squad" and the entire "woke crowd" will be pushing for control, while Nancy Pelosi and the old guard will be fighting back!
Why is James calling CHT Hitler, again
"James Carville fired back at Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) for calling him "a political hack," calling the self-described democratic socialist "a communist."
The socialist-communist civil war.
"James Carville fired back at Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) for calling him "a political hack," calling the self-described democratic socialist "a communist."
Nope... this Party is in perfect shape!
Let's hope that Bernie comes in with the most delegates. They steal the nomination from him. Trump wins a second term. Heads explode all the way around!
100 % Agree.
"As if his poor results in Iowa and New Hampshire weren’t enough, Joe Biden was met with chants of “Drop out, Joe!” on Thursday night as he left a campaign fundraiser in New York City, according to reports.
Other protesters from the group New York Communities for Change held a mock “funeral” for Biden’s candidacy, featuring a black coffin decorated with Biden 2020 stickers.
“The campaign is pretty much done,” one “mourner” said. “The people have spoken. Young people have spoken."
pro Bernie Sanders Supporter.
"
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David Hogg
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This is a tweet for for the founders of the gun violence prevention movement started centuries ago by almost entirely black, brown and indigenous lgbtq women and non binary people that never got on the news or in most history books. We may not know all your names but thank you."
Did you miss the part where this is conditional on Bernie winning the plurality of delegates, but not winning the nomination?
for one thing, the alky is too stupid and too feeble to be able to understand what you're saying. members of team bernie are on the record calling for serious violence when the DNC robs bernie again, which it will.
second, the democrat party as we know (or knew) it was gone in the 2016 election cycle.
we have openly socialist house members, openly marxist and communist presidential candidates, a hamas caucus in the house that hates israel like it's their fucking job, the list goes on and on.
i was raised by a couple of JFK democrats, was proud to call Daniel Patrick Moynihan my senator, and watched bill clinton court centrist democrats and the DLC, and work with repubs to secure welfare reform. those days are gone.
now it's all radicals all the time. liberal-run cities are literally slathered in human shit. the modern democrat party is fucked six ways from sunday.
i am hoping beyond hope that we get a brokered dem convention and the DNC steals it from bernie a second time. milwaukee 2020 will make chicago 1968 look like a girl scout jamboree. it will be fun watching the dumb fucks slaughter each other.
Spot on RRB .
KansasDemocrat said...
Why is James calling CHT Hitler, again
He didn't.
Bernie, Bernie, Bernie
VOX Reports
😚Bernie Sanders is leading the 2 most important states on Super Tuesday
Why Bernie Sanders’s polling leads in California and Texas are so important.😗
oh Yes Jane is calling CHT Hitler , Again
"Bernie Sanders is leading the 2 most important states on Super Tuesday
Why Bernie Sanders’s polling leads in California and Texas are so important."
DANIEL HENNINGER: The Incompetence Party. “The Democrats’ biggest problem isn’t Bernie Sanders. It’s that many voters doubt the party’s ability to govern anymore.”
"The Iowa caucus debacle came on top of the Trump impeachment, another low-turnout event with the public. People began telling reporters that the three-year death struggle between Democrats and President Trump wasn’t their idea of Washington’s purpose.
So what, other than hunting Donald Trump, does the Democratic Party stand for?
A recurring argument of this column is that in the U.S. and Europe, the presumed efficiency of governments has been worn down by the programs and responsibilities they’ve created for themselves, some with good intentions. By now, it’s just too much.
During the Depression, Franklin Roosevelt struck a defining bargain with the public: Cede to the government expanded powers over the details of American life, and government will administer it efficiently. For the public, giving government the power to regulate and rule was supposed to be a net plus.
The bargain behind Bernie Sanders’s Medicare for All, funded by new taxes on the middle class, is that it too will be a net plus. Come Election Day in November, will 50% of the electorate actually believe Democrats today could competently administer a national health-care system in the U.S.?
Mr. Sanders, who filed as a Democrat for this election, isn’t that much of an outlier. All his rivals, including the “moderates,” are proposing more additions to the already massive government labyrinth they’ve built for decades.
But in those places where the modern Democratic Party is in charge, they often govern badly or incompetently on a grand scale."
Detroit, from coast to coast.
https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/358220/#respond
Bloomberg Overtakes Biden In Florida
February 14, 2020 at 10:32 am EST
A new St. Pete Polls survey in Florida shows
Michael Bloomberg leading
the Democratic primary race with 27%,
followed by Joe Biden at 26%,
Pete Buttigieg at 11%,
Bernie Sanders at 10%,
Amy Klobuchar at 9% and
Elizabeth Warren at 5%.
__________________
OH MY! THAT'S A BIGGIE, Ch untruth!
Even WITH Florida, Trump is not home free,
but WITHOUT Florida, HE IS DOOMED!
Check it out at 270towin.
Question for Ch:
Is it beginning to look like
Bernie might win
NEITHER a plurality of the delegates
NOR the nomination?
Spot on RRB .
thanks, but all i did was state the obvious. democrats are so fucking looney toons cray cray they will never return to normal.
andrew breitbart made a comment once that resonated with me - "politics is downstream from culture."
you look around at how we've devolved culturally, abandoning all sense of norns, kids gender transitioning at age 3, all free shit all the time with no sense of a work ethic anymore, the overwhelming sense of entitlement in general that pervades society today...
conservatives can claim no credit for any of this. this is all on the left. yet it's never enough. they're trying to out "free shit" one another and out crazy one another.
it looks like we're pretty well fucked.
rrb says:
democrats are so f***ing looney toons cray cray they will never return to normal.
__________
Returning to normal will be a whole lot more difficult for the Repugs than for the Dems, rattypoo.
The path to normal for the Dems is foreshadowed in posts 12:12 and 12:19 above.
Still waiting for Ch untruth to respond.
pederast no one reads your stupid shit
LOL, Cali:
Ch often reads and responds intelligently.
He's having some difficulty, though, this time.
No charges for McCabe. Barr saving his guns for comey and Brennan.
YOU MISSED the best part, Balls. So I boldfaced it for you below:
McCabe Won’t Face Charges
February 14, 2020 at 12:21 pm EST
“The Justice Department plans to reveal soon that it will not bring charges against former acting FBI director Andrew McCabe for lying to investigators about a media disclosure, ending a long-running inquiry into a top law enforcement official who authorized the bureau to investigate President Trump and soon became the commander in chief’s political punching bag,” the Washington Post reports.
“The department could make the decision public in the coming days, the people said, though the exact mechanism for their doing so remains unclear. The move will surely infuriate Trump, who has raged publicly and privately in recent months that McCabe and others he considers political enemies should be charged with crimes.”
Rough with wantabe dictators don't get their way.
when, not with
Hey Roger who is rough fucking your two ex's.
KD is really high class, isn't he?
PM
oh Yes Jane is calling CHT Hitler , Again
But Why?
You know it's almost hard not to believe Trump is playing 4th dimensional chess.
It's like he deliberately baited the Democrats into impeaching him just to destroy Biden and the Democrat party.
8:03AM?
"...just to destroy Biden and the Democrat party."
LOL, if Mike takes Florida...
According to a bombshell report from the New York Times Friday morning, U.S. Attorney John Durham has been investigating whether Obama administration officials hid or perhaps manipulated intelligence about Russia's meddling.
Of course, that's not exactly how the New York Times wants you to see this story. From the very first paragraph, the NYT tries to spin the story as a partisan fishing expedition, not a legitimate investigation of Obama-era corruption. "Trump administration officials investigating the government’s response to Russia’s election interference in 2016 appear to be hunting for a basis to accuse Obama-era intelligence officials of hiding evidence or manipulating analysis about Moscow’s covert operation, according to people familiar with aspects of the inquiry."
"Mr. Durham appears to be pursuing a theory that the C.I.A., under its former director John O. Brennan, had a preconceived notion about Russia or was trying to get to a particular result — and was nefariously trying to keep other agencies from seeing the full picture lest they interfere with that goal, the people said.
The NYT then not-so-subtlely suggests that Trump is simply using the Justice Department to "go after his enemies," but there are legitimate questions about what the Obama administration did (and didn't) do when it was made clear that Russia was attempting to meddle in our elections."
It's been previously reported than Barack Obama, and thus, his administration, was not only aware that Russia was trying to interfere, but actually prevented any sort of response to it.
According to the Washington Post, Barack Obama was first alerted by John Brennan about Russia's efforts in early August of 2016. However, despite the alarm given, Obama’s national security adviser Susan Rice literally gave a “stand-down” order to Obama’s cybersecurity czar, rather than respond in full force. You don't have to take my word for it. This was first revealed in the book, Russian Roulette, by left-wing authors Michael Isikoff and David Corn. What was Obama trying to hide?
It seems like John Durham is trying to answer that question, and the New York Times is afraid of what the answer is.
https://pjmedia.com/trending/bombshell-us-atty-john-durham-is-investigating-if-obama-admin-hid-or-manipulated-evidence-of-russian-meddling/
pucker up tiny mike. it looks like you'll be kissing a lot more black ass:
WASHINGTON (AP) — At the height of the 2008 economic collapse, then-New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg said the elimination of a discriminatory housing practice known as “redlining” was responsible for instigating the meltdown.
“It all started back when there was a lot of pressure on banks to make loans to everyone,” Bloomberg, now a Democratic presidential candidate, said at a forum that was hosted by Georgetown University in September 2008. “Redlining, if you remember, was the term where banks took whole neighborhoods and said, ‘People in these neighborhoods are poor, they’re not going to be able to pay off their mortgages, tell your salesmen don’t go into those areas.’”
He continued: “And then Congress got involved -- local elected officials, as well -- and said, ‘Oh that’s not fair, these people should be able to get credit.’ And once you started pushing in that direction, banks started making more and more loans where the credit of the person buying the house wasn’t as good as you would like.”
https://apnews.com/8cbb1fafbb4faf01e8d9571363979501
LOL, if Mike takes Florida...
Mike won't take Florida or any other state. Bernie will be the nominee.
And no, he won't take Florida either. (Like his chances in Cuba however.)
Redlining was cruel when it was used to disadvantage black people who had come from the South and wanted to own homes. It was also cruel when it was used to identify areas where they could continue to be disadvantaged in home purchasing. Bloomberg spoke truthfully.
Bombshell report on Durham?
Seems I remember something about Moscow Mitch preventing Obama from revealing Russian interference in our election. Want to google that?
Nope
RRB, Jane has completely missed what mini-mike said.
"WASHINGTON (AP) — At the height of the 2008 economic collapse, then-New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg said the elimination of a discriminatory housing practice known as “redlining” was responsible for instigating the meltdown.
“It all started back when there was a lot of pressure on banks to make loans to everyone,” Bloomberg, now a Democratic presidential candidate, said at a forum that was hosted by Georgetown University in September 2008. “Redlining, if you remember, was the term where banks took whole neighborhoods and said, ‘People in these neighborhoods are poor, they’re not going to be able to pay off their mortgages, tell your salesmen don’t go into those areas.’”
He continued: “And then Congress got involved -- local elected officials, as well -- and said, ‘Oh that’s not fair, these people should be able to get credit.’ And once you started pushing in that direction, banks started making more and more loans where the credit of the person buying the house wasn’t as good as you would like.”
Democrat Presidential candidate Michael Avenatti found Guilty.
John Hayward @Doc_0 -
This "rule of law" talking point is the most absurd example of NeverTrump and Democrat desperation yet. It's the nook-nook they're sucking on to get themselves past the disappointment of Impeachment Theater not only fizzling, but backfiring spectacularly.
By any objective standard, Trump is far less of a threat to the "rule of law" than Barack Obama was. In fact, the big reason the anti-Trump circus is squawking about "rule of law" right now is they remember how concerned conservatives were about it during the Obama years.
Obama's entire agenda was an all-out attack on the rule of law. When Obamacare crashed and burned, he was out there giving speeches where he told people to just ignore the broken law and promised not to prosecute them for it.
If anything, Trump is clearly the target of people who disdain the rule of law, using laws and administrative procedures to sabotage his administration. The proverbial Crazy Hawaiian Judge is the real threat to rule of law, not Trump. Abusive injunctions are a threat.
And Trump is clearly on the right side of the biggest single Rule of Law issue there is: immigration, citizenship, sanctuary cities, border defense. The Dems, ALL OF THEM, are sworn enemies of the rule of law and openly promise to undermine it as vigorously as possible.
Trump is also on the right side of the second biggest Rule of Law issues, free speech and gun rights. The enemies of those things are the ones declaring open war on the rule of law. The 1st and 2nd Amendment are inextricably linked in defining what the law means and how it rules.
And Trump spent most of his first term under attack by one of the worst abuses of the Rule of Law this nation has ever seen, the Russia collusion hoax and its attendant abuses of the FBI, FISA, etc.
No one willing to give "the Resistance" and Obama a pass on the Russia hoax can be taken seriously when they talk about the Rule of Law. They're just tossing around loaded political terms without any commitment to what those terms actually mean.
Worse, they're perverting the Rule of Law to mean "the rule of the permanent administrative state." The Rule of Law is meaningless, indeed inverted from its true meaning, if there are no laws to bind the administrative state, no accountability, no consequences.
Argue the merits of Trump's policies all you want, but let's stop this charade that he's some kind of unique existential threat to the Rule of Law. Every Dem running in 2020 is vastly more of a threat than Trump on his worst day. /end
Not only did McConnell do it then, he's trying to do it again:
Mitch McConnell Is Blocking Efforts to Prevent Russian Election Interference in 2020!
He knows the Russians WANT another four years of their favorite world puppet.
American households are beginning the new year full of hope for the future, satisfaction with personal finances, improved outlooks for the economy, and rising incomes and wealth.
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose to 100.9 in early February, higher than expectations for 99.7 and above the 99.8 level hit in January. That nearly matches March 2018’s 101.4, which was the highest score since 2004, making February the second-best reading in 15 years."
Erased Lost Years.
Redlining was cruel when it was used to disadvantage black people who had come from the South and wanted to own homes. It was also cruel when it was used to identify areas where they could continue to be disadvantaged in home purchasing. Bloomberg spoke truthfully.
So James is saying discrimination against blacks was for their own good?
MY FUNNY VALENTINE
I don't know about that James. I kind of trust people to make their own decision for there own good regardless of race.
And if the make a mistake they have to own it.
TO REPEAT:
Bloomberg Overtakes Biden In Florida
and is WAY ahead of Bernie!
A new St. Pete Polls survey in Florida shows
Michael Bloomberg leading
the Democratic primary race with 27%,
followed by Joe Biden at 26%,
Pete Buttigieg at 11%,
Bernie Sanders at 10%,
Amy Klobuchar at 9% and
Elizabeth Warren at 5%.
__________________
OH MY! THAT'S A BIGGIE, Ch untruth!
Even WITH Florida, Trump is not home free,
but WITHOUT Florida, HE IS DOOMED!
Check it out at 270towin.
(That must really have frightened Ch.
He STILL hasn't responded.)
Question for Ch:
It's beginning to look like
Bernie might win
NEITHER a plurality of the delegates
NOR the nomination.
Right, Ch?
That was FLORIDA!
So Commensa is saying that the dreadful practice of redlining was okay?
I'm sure not. Nor is Bloomberg.
Cali, outstanding post.
Trump's gonna win Florida. If Bernie is the nominee they will call at 8:00 pm when the Escambia county polls close.
Mitch McConnell Is Blocking Efforts to Prevent Russian Election Interference in 2020!
let's see if pastor hypocrite the pederast can put a little meat on this bone.
So Commensa is saying that the dreadful practice of redlining was okay?
No James, I'm saying you think it's OK since you agreed with Bloomberg that redlining was for their own good.
Blogger KansasDemocrat said...
Cali, outstanding post.
Whatta pair of abject assholes!!!!!! BWAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!
redlining ceased under the community reinvestment act. and act that was born under carter and expanded under clinton with vocal support from barney fwank, et. al.
liberals wanted everyone to have a shot at the American dream, even if there was no way in hell they could afford it. but with Fannie and freddie to backstop the lamebrained scheme, it allowed all the democrats on the hill to feel good about themselves...
...right up until the whole house of cards collapsed.
it was never really redlining in and of itself that was the issue. it was credit requirements and the ability to pay back the loan. banks were fucked either way. if they required 20% down and proof of income, cries of "THAT'S RAY-CISS!!!" would be heard from coast to coast.
ironically, where we were then with the mortgage crisis is where we are now with the student loan crisis. we've allowed millions of snowflakes to borrow trillions of $$$ that they'll never be able to repay for degrees in gender studies, racialist studies, and every other social justice handjob under the sun. no wonder the millennials are clamoring to those candidates offering free college and college loan debt forgiveness. like redlined homes with no ability to repay, they scored degrees in worthless redlined majors that offer no path to financial independence and wealth creation. so now they need uncle bernie to bail them out.
Jane is wrong again.
"No Stupid " Jane
Why delete your post Prancing Pastor?
So Commensa is saying that the dreadful practice of redlining was okay?
No James, I'm saying you think it's OK since you agreed with Bloomberg that redlining was for their own good.
No, stupid. He was CRITICIZING the over extension of credit to those who could not pay it off, which ultimately hurt them by causing them to default.
BLOOMBERG: "And once you started pushing in that direction, banks started making more and more loans where the credit of the person buying the house wasn’t as good as you would like.”
wrong again Prancing Pastor.
No, stupid. He was CRITICIZING the over extension of credit to those who could not pay it off, which ultimately hurt them by causing them to default.
Nobody forced them to take the loan. The real harm was denying the opportunity in the first place by redlining. A practice you and Bloomberg support because you don't believe blacks have the mental capacity to understand mortgages and decide for themselves. They must be protected from their own bad decisions. (Hence the slurpy ban.)
I can't think of anyone more racist than you two.
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