- Bernie 572
- Biden 483
- Bloomberg 227
- Warren 173
That's a lot closer than anyone would have imagined a few days ago, and probably closer than most other projectionists (not named Nate Silver) are expecting as of right now. Why is that?
Let's be clear... as many as 55,000 votes have already been cast in Minnesota (probably many for Amy Klobuchar). They believe as much as 80% of the California vote will be by mail, and probably 80% of that 80% have already been sent in. Colorado is completely a mail in state, and very likely most of those ballots are already in. Texas has early voting, as do most of the Super Tuesday states. Many have been voting for weeks.
Silver "might" be right here. There might be some huge same day voting surge for Biden based on endorsements happening today. I tend to wonder out loud how much these sorts of endorsements really help. People "likely" go to their second choice (rather than listen to the endorsement of their first choice). They may actually otherwise tend to be less enthused about listening to their first choice who probably disappointed them with a late minute minute dropout and quick endorsement of someone else. It comes across as a disingenuous sell out!
I am also not as convinced as others that Bloomberg won't be a factor tomorrow. Even if his momentum might have stalled his primary day votes, with early voting (and the airways to himself) I could see some delegates fall into his general direction tomorrow just based on early voting alone.
So I wouldn't be shocked if Nate Silver is wrong. It wouldn't be the first time he was drastically wrong about something like this. In fact, I actually wouldn't be shocked if Sanders is further ahead of Biden than Biden is ahead of Bloomberg when all is said and done.
14 comments:
LMAO
Elizabeth Warren’s Trail Of Tears Is Over
Elizabeth Warren’s Trail Of Tears Is Over
MARCH 1, 2020 By David Marcus
In the South Carolina primary on Saturday, Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s presidential campaign died. It wasn’t from smallpox-tainted blankets, but from lack of votes. Her lackluster campaign flamed out in the Palmetto State like a wet matchstick.
Did she ever have a chance? No. Warren was always the other Bernie Sanders without the appeal or popularity. Ultimately, the problem is that nobody likes her.
For the intelligentsia like those at the esteemed New York Times, she was the perfect candidate, an antidote to Donald Trump’s toxic masculinity. But on Saturday night, the clock ran out. She came in fifth place behind a victorious Joe Biden, a satisfied Bernie Sanders, a lackluster Tom Steyer, and the gay former mayor of South Bend, Indiana.
Was there a case for Warren? Some thought so, and she did, but there never truly was. The case for Warren had too much to do with her being a woman — the woman. This was Hillary Clinton redux, but nobody really liked Hillary Clinton. I’m a competent woman is not a cake that rises to the level of being elected president.
Who is Warren, exactly? A woke scold? A mid-level manager who does trust exercises? Nobody wants that. Presidential candidates need to inspire. Warren couldn’t inspire a cup of coffee to get cold. That was always the problem: for all the noise about the importance of her candidacy, she wasn’t a good candidate. And that is why she lost.
Now Warren will stay in the Senate. That’s where she belongs. It’s a place where nothing happens, and she is the picture postcard of nothing happening. There’s going to be some trouble about this. There will be indictments. We will be told that Warren’s loss is the inevitable result of a society that undervalues women. But that’s not true. She’s just not a good candidate.
Who is the beneficiary of Warren’s magnificent collapse? Bernie Sanders. The far-left lane, in which all cars are probably electric cars, belongs to the angry Jew from Brooklyn now. Maybe we just prefer wagging fingers to come from angry old men instead of angry old women. Who knows?
In any event, Warren is over. There is little reason to believe her campaign can sustain this loss. Super Tuesday portends greater cratering of her support. At some point, when you’re at the bottom of the Grand Canyon, you have to realize it.
The only question left for the Democrats, if there even is a question, is who will eventually wind up one-on-one with Sanders. Biden? Mike Bloomberg? It’s not going to be Warren. South Carolina played out exactly as Biden needed it to. But does it matter? That will be decided on Tuesday.
For Warren at this point, staying in the race is a fool’s errand. It’s not happening. It’s not going to be a thing, even if the editors at The New York Times think it should. The great thing about America is that Americans often tell The New York Times exactly where they can stick it. Elizabeth Warren just learned that lesson.
Biden: 'I Am The Only Candidate Who Can Beat Ronald Reagan'
HOUSTON, TX—Fresh off his afternoon nap, presidential candidate Joe Biden gave a fiery, high-energy speech in Houston today, claiming to be the only candidate who could beat incumbent Ronald Reagan.
"I am the only candidate who can unite the party to defeat Reagan," he said to scattered applause. "When Super Thursday hits here in a few weeks, we can rally the 150 million Democrats here in the great country of Texas to vote for me so we can get Reagan and his crony Dick Cheney off the Iron Throne there in the Imperial Senate. Go Hoosiers!"
Aides scrambled to turn off Biden's mic but he beat them away with his walker.
"The time has come for the reign of Tippecanoe and Tyler too to end!" he shouted, though by this point he had wandered into a nearby field and no one could hear him.
By Michael M. Grynbaum
March 2, 2020, 7:01 p.m. ET
Chris Matthews, the veteran political anchor and voluble host of the long-running MSNBC talk show “Hardball,” resigned his position at the network on Monday night, an abrupt departure from a television perch that made him a fixture of politics and media over the past quarter century.
Mr. Matthews, 74, has faced mounting criticism in recent days over a spate of embarrassing on-air moments, including a comparison of Senator Bernie Sanders’s campaign to the Nazi invasion of France and an interview with Senator Elizabeth Warren in which the anchor was criticized for a condescending and disbelieving tone.
On Saturday, the journalist Laura Bassett published an article on the website of GQ magazine describing a series of episodes where, she wrote, Mr. Matthews made inappropriate comments about her appearance in the makeup room of his studio before she was a guest on his program.
Matthews didn't deserve this. And I'm no fan of his.
Karma got Matthews.
Heh, Matthews walked out halfway though his last show.
what a cartoon move.
Matthews didn't deserve this.
perhaps not. but when you're such a sanctimonious prick and a complete fucking asshole like he is, there is something satisfying about seeing him hoist with his own petard.
YUGE WINS for Bernie?
Is this staged event showing unity for PLUGS going to work?
Bloomberg gets to find out if he Bought vote$.
YUGE WINS for Bernie?
Is this staged event showing unity for PLUGS going to work?
Bloomberg gets to find out if he Bought vote$.
Don't think Bernies win in California is going to be that big.
Why?
I think the moderates in California will coalesce around Biden.
But Sanders had the advantage in early voting so Biden needs a big turnout for him.
Of course if California is a winner take all state then any win is a big win no matter what the margin is.
Also, we are seeing proof positive as to why early voting is a bad idea. A number of Super Tuesday votes have gone to candidates that are no longer running.
"The results of California’s Democratic primary won’t only be determined by who gets the most votes. Instead, the largest trove of delegates of any state in the nation will be divvied up among all the candidates who earn at least 15 percent of the vote, both statewide and in each of the state’s 53 congressional districts."
California
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