At least for now, the CDC has a separate tracking for suspected Covid-19 deaths. This allows them to post both a "confirmed" count, as well as a suspected count. I don't expect all of the trackers to follow this (Worldometer for now is putting them all together). But for now, at least the most official tracking organization will be providing us with the full transparent details.
I am now including the new CDC stat on the sidebar.
35 comments:
Justin Hart
@justin_hart
There it is.
“the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). “
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1
More soon.
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Hold onto your hats. Get blown away with the first big seroprevalance report are coming out.
And the fatality rate just got bottomed out to influenza levels.
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Here's what the seroprevalence report means!
- The population of Santa Clara county, CA is 1.9M (the heart of Silicon Valley and home to Stanford
- Currently, only 1700 people have been diagnosed with #COVID19 and 66 people have died
- That's a crude fatality rate of 3.6%
BUT NOW
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Usually tests are limited to people who show symptoms, people who are sick. The seroprevelance tests people randomly to test for possible antibodies:
"the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%)."
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This means that the ACTUAL population of people who have been infected with #COVID19: "estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases."
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If the deaths are at 66 and the true infected population is 48K then the fatality rate is .14% !!
If the range is at the upper end and 81K people were infected then the fatality rate is not even .1%
Thread: https://twitter.com/justin_hart/status/1251163878274134019
I'm no expert but appears to be very good news
The Lousy Democrats Pelosi/Schumer are not taking hostages , They are executing Mom & Pop small businesses.
President Trump said he would be telling the governors when to reopen the country, and as president he had the absolute, total authority to do that.
The next day he said he would not be telling the governors when to reopen the country.
Ch is good at explaining things.
He will now explain that.
James, still not a single bad word about Joe Biden's beloved China and WHO.
Trump "evolved".
Poof JamesBraindead
He "evolved?" In one day?
I'm hoping Ch can give us a better answer.
Evolved worked for you when Obimbo and His wife "Mike" were in office.
12 other Major Economies opening up.
Sweden never closed.
Ch is good at explaining things.
He will now explain that.
He also said he was working with the Governors and didn't believe there would be a problem when everything was said and done.
The roll out is pretty much exactly what I expected.
Trump is doing what is in the best interests of the country, with the agreement of medical advisers, economic advisers, and Governors.
The fact that he feels he has the authority to make final decisions is irrelevant.... since this IS HIS final decision.
Without twisting words or ignoring large parts of what he said... perhaps you can explain again what confuses you or why this needs to be explained?
Well isn't that nice? AFTER getting his ears royally pinned back, he changed his tune. Thanks for making that clear.
A Letter from James to President Trump,
Dear Mr. President Elected by a Minority of the Voters,
I do not want to see you re-elected, so I hope you will keep making silly statements like that about your presidential authority being total: Such statements show how your mind works and reveal that you really do think you should have dictatorial powers.
We all know that you have long been depending on the strength of the economy, hoping that will get you reelected again by the electoral college if not by the popular vote, but that dependence has now been called in question by the economic disasters we are now in.
I do not like the disasters, but often even the worst disasters can lead to something good, one of which I hope to be your being shown the back door to the White House.
But now you are in a frantic position. You desperately want to get economic growth back to where it will help you get reelected, but I don't know how many lives you will be willing to sacrifice to attain that goal. I suspect it is a lot more than a few.
Most of us, however, want to bring growth back without risking a second or third wave of the pandemic. And the only way that can happen will be to have enough testing capabilties in place, which all the governors keep telling us -- and you -- is far, far from the case now.
Thank goodness we have the governors, for I hope that they, including even the Republican ones, will continue to have the good sense to reign you in.
And I'm hoping the voters will then have the good sense to throw you out.
Sincerely,
James
Slow Joe Biden's China unleashed a World Wide Death plague.
Yet, Joe Demands $400,000 million still be paid to WHO.
Fackebook makes WHO the go to Experts on all things China Virus.
Wahoooo China now reports a 50 % jump in cases .
Lol@JamesBrainDead
JamesBrainDead. had this fake later in the can.
She fake asked a fake question to be able to like it .
Well isn't that nice? AFTER getting his ears royally pinned back, he changed his tune. Thanks for making that clear.
So it's your unproven and illogical assertion...
That Trump, Mnuchin, Fauci, Birx, Governors, and others...
have all been working through all of this for several days butting heads with Trump and that at the last minute Trump gave up and they came up with everything discussed yesterday right at the last minute???
What I heard:
I heard Trump suggest that while he had the final decision that everyone would be in agreement with what was being discussed and that he didn't feel like there would be much (if any) push back.
Sounded to me that we were 90% of the way into this process and that most everyone involved was in agreement with what had been in place to date.
And what we heard yesterday was not some "last minute change" but rather it was exactly what had been discussed and what was being agreed upon over the past few days.
This shit doesn't get done willy nilly at the last minute... as much as you would like to believe it does.
Pelosi is eating Cartons of ice cream.
James , does that outrage you.
Pelosi is eating Cartons of ice cream.
My wife's company's loan has not yet (and may now not be) approved because the system ran out of money. He has been working with the bank since this was first put into place.
The owner is now asking everyone (including my wife who is the only Manager on staff) to take pay cuts because of it.
Any missing pay is directly on Pelosi and the Democrats right now.
They have no care in the world for the small business owner or anyone working for them. What they care about is using this situation to gain power.
It's disgusting.
Ch "hears" what he wants to hear, not what his ears hear.
"I heard Trump suggest..."
Everyone else heard him claim.
Everyone else heard him claim.
nope.
i hear him suggest.
and i've watched you LIE on this topic since this situation began, pederast
your TDS is YOUR problem, not ours.
My letter to Trump I wrote while waiting for Ch's response. I then responded briefly to his response and immediately posted the letter, which ends:
__________
... I don't know how many lives you will be willing to sacrifice to attain [your] goal [of being reelected]. I suspect it is a lot more than a few.
Most of us, however, want to bring growth back without risking a second or third wave of the pandemic. And the only way that can happen will be to have enough testing capabilties in place, which all the governors keep telling us -- and you -- is far, far from the case now.
Thank goodness we have the governors, for I hope that they, including even the Republican ones, will continue to have the good sense to reign you in.
And I'm hoping the voters will then have the good sense to throw you out.
Most of us...want to bring growth back without risking a second or third wave of the pandemic. And the only way that can happen will be to have enough testing capabilties in place, which all the governors keep telling us* -- and you -- is far, far from the case now.
*Lindsey Graham too.
It’s Classic Trump
April 17, 2020 at 12:28 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard
Susan Glasser:
“His two most memorable lines of the COVID-19 pandemic, proclaiming ‘absolute authority’ and ‘no responsibility at all,’ are wildly contradictory, and yet also completely consistent with his approach to governing.
“The novel coronavirus is truly a new type of American crisis, but it has been met by the same old, same old from America’s President:
unhinged press conferences and unfounded conspiracy theories; lies, attacks, and bizarre non sequiturs; and abrupt, seemingly incomprehensible policy shifts from a leader who has no problem changing course at the expense of his own credibility.”
___________
In simple words, he is convinced he can lie like Goebbels and it doesn't matter.
Hint to him: It's catching up to you now.
Ch "hears" what he wants to hear, not what his ears hear.
So, Reverend...
You did not hear him tell everyone (in the same task briefing that he said it was ultimately his decision) that he has been working with the task force and the Governors and that he expected people to agree with whatever decision he made?
Because I have a strange feeling that you didn't actually watch or listen to the actual briefing... and that rather you got your information by what other people "said" about the briefing.
But here is a serious question for you, Reverend...
Given the Medical team, financial team, Governors, and others all appear to be in fairly reasonable agreement on this... and given that it's a fairly complicated set of guidelines...
and given that they had been discussing this reopening for quite some time...
Do you really reasonably believe that the final decision was not the same as what they had been discussing and planning all along?
I mean, I get that you have no real life experience with planning things or putting any sort of business or other type of plan together... but is it really your belief that all of this was part of some last minute change of plan that was tossed together after the President dropped the mythical demand to reopen everything on May 1st?
He can’t even answer a simple question about whether or not his NC school system had opted out of SSI, after bragging how the program was so great.
I know my old man’s did, realizing it was a much better deal than being in SSI
HE'S STILL AT IT, CH
President Trump goads states to lift virus restrictions
The Associated Press Apr 17th 2020
WASHINGTON (AP) — One day after laying out a roadmap for gradually reviving economic activity, President Donald Trump urged his supporters to “LIBERATE” three states led by Democratic governors Friday, in effect encouraging protests against the stay-at-home restrictions against the coronavirus.
The president took to Twitter with the kind of rhetoric some of his supporters have used to demand the lifting of the orders that have thrown millions of Americans out of work.
“LIBERATE MINNESOTA!” “LIBERATE MICHIGAN!” “LIBERATE VIRGINIA,” Trump said in a tweet-storm in which also lashed out at New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo to stop complaining about the federal response.
On Thursday, Trump laid out a three-step, weeks-long map for easing the restrictions in places where the virus is being brought under control, assuring the nation's governors: “You’re going to call your own shots."
But some governors around the country made it clear they are not ready to break out the roadmap, with some saying they badly need help from Washington in ramping up testing for the virus first.
Cuomo accused the federal government of “passing the buck without passing the bucks.”
“The federal government cannot wipe its hands of this and say, `Oh, the states are responsible for testing.' We cannot do it. We cannot do it without federal help," the governor said.
the article continues, VERY informatively ...
Read my lips, Ch.
Read Lindsay Graham's lips.
Read the governors' lips.
Read the task force's lips:
TESTING. TESTING. TESTING. TESTING.
He can't answer...
Actually, I didn't understand the relevance of the question, since I am not a school teacher. I had to look it up, and I see that my home state NC didn't opt out.
More important to me, I as a retired pastor receive both SS (into which I paid) and also one of the finest church pension plans available (into which I also paid).
Cuomo accused the federal government of “passing the buck without passing the bucks.”
NYS was $6 BILLION in the whole before the covid "crisis" began. Now it's at least twice that. and because the idiot has been using the state budget to play fucking santa to buy votes, he's now trying to finagle a federal bailout to pick up the tab resulting from his piss-poor management.
Read my lips, Ch.
TESTING. TESTING. TESTING. TESTING.
How about you read the three phase plan?
How about you pay attention to this?
But some governors around the country made it clear they are not ready to break out the roadmap, with some saying they badly need help from Washington in ramping up TESTING for the virus first.
Cuomo accused the federal government of “passing the buck without passing the bucks.”
Trump is right about one thing, By far the state of New York got more aid than any other state in the nation.
While states like Florida got hardly any aid nor was there any real need for it. Like Texas, Florida should be ready to open for phase one by sometime next week but I think DeSantis is just going to let his EO expire on April 30th.
Funny how the media lionize Cuomo and demonize DeSantis but of the two of them DeSantis performed much better at controlling the COVID-19 outbreak in his state.
Yes James...
it's the politicians and the media against the doctors and experts on the task force...
It appears you will side with politicians and the media over science and expertise!
Funny how the media lionize Cuomo and demonize DeSantis but of the two of them DeSantis performed much better at controlling the COVID-19 outbreak in his state.
look at it in terms of ideology.
for the media in particular and liberals in general government is their God, therefore someone like cuomo who promotes complete reliance upon government would naturally be their hero.
look at the testing issue.
cuomo demands the feds deliver on the testing. that could be delivered by the states, but assholes like him used all the $$$ to buy votes, so essential state services are off the table.
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