Thursday, July 28, 2016

Tale of two realities...

Everything is awesome - Don't let Donald screw it up!

So there were really four parts to the President's speech last night. Let's break it down in terms of that:

Obama's legacy - This was the part where the President was attempting to both toot his own horn, while simultaneously trying to explain to the majority of the country why they are wrong to feel like things are going negatively. To give credit where credit is due, the President has great rhetorical skills. But rhetorical skills alone sometimes fall short of changing reality. For instance, claiming that Obamacare made Health Care a right vs a privilege is a strong abstract argument. Likewise, bragging that the Iranian deal was the fruit of diplomacy has a nice ring to it. Problem is that from a tangible standpoint, neither of these "accomplishments" have actually been successful and most of the country instinctively understands that.

Lipstick on a pig -  Unfortunately for Obama, this convention is not about him and his legacy. It's about Hillary Clinton and her candidacy. Once again, the Presidents used strong rhetoric to describe the Secretary of State. She's fought hard for things, she made strong arguments, she was part of decision making process, and she never gives up. These are great qualities to have, if you are a Notre Dame practice squad player names Rudy. But unless I missed the other secret end to the movie, Rudy was not drafted into the NFL to play football professionally. What was missing, was actual tangible achievement.

Trump attack dog - Perhaps the most effective part of the speech was going after the Donald. Nothing seems to get the crowd going like attacks on Trump. Moreover, he can speak from a place of Presidential experience, which in the minds of people likely gives him more authority to speak of Presidential qualifications. My only question was whether or not he really offered anything new or if it simply comes across as piling on.

The future - This was probably the most important part of the speech, and what seems to be growing as the major theme of the convention. Whereas Trump is offering a country (and world) moving in the wrong direction, Obama and the Democrats are attempting to offer a country moving in the right direction. There has been a lot said about glass ceilings, diversity, and inclusion. What the Democrats would really like to do is make this a referendum on whether or not the country want's to continue to break glass ceilings, become more diverse and more inclusive... arguing that such priorities do not exist within the Republican Party.

Conclusion - Now I strongly suspect that if you are a Democrat or a liberal leaning Independent that this is the sort of speech that moved you. The President is a great public speaker and has been a great motivator for the liberal cause.  Last night was another performance in that same vein. While it was intuitive to me that he glossed over pretty much everything that was negative about the past few years, I doubt that mattered much for those already in the fold. Moreover, I think that the arguments about diversity and inclusion will also carry weight for a decent portion of the country.

But at that end of the day, nearly seventy percent of Americans do not see the country the same way the President does. They may want to see it that way. Some of them may even be trying to convince themselves of it. But rhetorical arguments like this simply don't have lasting power. When the emotions wear off, people will stop and ask themselves whether or not any of this makes their own lives better. Should we really election Clinton because we want a woman? Does changing the legal status of illegal immigrants "really" make us more diverse? Does such diversity help someone with stagnant wages pay the bills? How does allowing a transgender male to use a girls locker room make the average Joe's life better?

I suspect that when it comes to seeing the world as it is versus seeing the world as it should be. The American public is going to want the realist over the dreamer.

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