Friday, September 16, 2016

A moment in time...

So yes, the momentum has changed. Yes, the concept of a Hillary Clinton landslide seems like a distant memory. Yes, it appears that once again, the underwhelming former first lady is attempting to grasp defeat from the jaws of victory...


But this is just a moment in time. Just as I stated a few weeks ago when polls were coming out with double digit Clinton leads, there is way too much time left in this race to draw any real conclusions. In fact, I would argue that there is still three very distinct possibilities:

  • Hillary Clinton regains her footing, puts this rough patch behind her, has some strong debate performances, and regains her overall advantage in the polls. While I don't believe that she will ever get back to the big leads she saw after her convention, a comfortable four-six point victory feels like it could be within her grasp; That is if she avoids the pot holes and things fall into place.
  • Donald Trump continues to gain credibility and momentum, slowing convincing enough Americans that his is a reasonable alternative to the establishment candidate running for a third Obama term. A landslide victory is probably not in the cards (despite the opinion of Scott Adams), but if Trump can turn into some semblance of real Presidential candidate, and if Clinton slips up (or has another medical incident or two) he too could move into that four-six point range.  
  • The election remains close till the end, with an ebb and flow that can provide both encouragement and discouragement to both sides. Things continue to stay ugly, neither candidate can pull away, and it's a dog fight right down to November 8th. 
Having watched several Presidential cycles very closely and observing how the poll fluctuate over the course of a Presidential run, I can say that some of this should not have come as much of a surprise. The candidate who has the second convention, generally gets a little better bounce, early polls generally favor the Democratic candidate (for multiple reasons), and there seems to be a real separation as to what happens before labor day and after labor day.

In this case Clinton got the second convention. She has gotten the lion's share of positive media coverage, and most polling done before Labor day use registered voter samples, which almost always inflates the polling number for Democrats. I would have expected that if nothing else changed, that we would still a slight tightening of the race after labor day, as the convention bumps wore off, and the pollsters shifted from registered to likely voters.

So the fact that the race has moved from that six-eight point Clinton lead into a margin of error sort of deal, can be partially explained by phenomenon that I would have expected either way. What makes this election unique is the high negatives for both candidates and the fact that issues and policies are quite secondary to other means of persuasion and marketing. I believe at this point what has moved the needle more than we might otherwise expect is the pure and simple fact that Donald Trump is a better persuader than Hillary Clinton (in spite of her obviously having help in this area).  

Moving forward there is disagreement as to which candidate has the advantage (or is most likely to be the one to move into the mid single digit lead and win comfortably). 
  • Some will argue that Hillary Clinton just went through her roughest patch yet, and is still at worse tied or a little ahead of Donald Trump. If Trump has not pulled in front at this point, he never will. Moreover the electoral college map favors Clinton at this point, and she simply has way more paths to 270 EC votes. This is a credible argument. 
  • Others will argue that it is Donald Trump who has actually had the longer and rougher patch. He has been ridiculed by the President, attacked with upwards of a hundred million dollars worth of Hillary Clinton attack ads, criticized by many of his own Party elite, and absolutely crucified by the media. Yet, here he stands, less than two months from the election, coming from down double digits to leading in many polls. If Hillary did not put him away before, how does she put away a more disciplined Trump, who is just recently started spending his millions? This is a credible argument as well.  
For me, this is not much different than I have said all along. Corrupt Hillary and Bigoted Trump have been persuasive arguments for some time. But both are starting to bump up against the law of diminishing returns.  In my humble opinion, the candidate who can better pivot to a different strategy will be the candidate who will come out on top. Trump appears to have found his pivot by acting more conventional (policy speeches, etc), while pushing the Hillary lacks strength and stamina argument. On the flip side, Hillary right now seems a little stuck (basket of deplorables). If I was a Hillary supporter, that is what would worry me right now. Because in my humble opinion, she will need to find her pivot (as Trump already has) to keep up. 

15 comments:

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

I'm thinking along the same lines. We may differ only on one thing. Trump scares the living shit out of me.

Clinton? Far from perfect. But doesn't have the impulsive behavior, and worse, the dangerous temperament Trump exhibits daily.

Commonsense said...

There is one consideration. Early voting has already started in some states.

C.H. Truth said...

Roger - Remember the Star Trek movie Wrath of Khan, where they put those little vile creatures into the ear passages of the Enterprise crew and then Kahn and gang were able to control their thoughts and actions?

This is a little bit like how you have been treated by our liberal elite, who have brainwashed you into this sort of group think.

A man who owns over 500 businesses and is worth billions of dollars, by nature cannot be an impulsive man with a dangerous temperament. If he was, he would have lost the original million dollar loan he got from his dad, and he probably would have ended up like actual impulsive rich kids who cannot control their temperament. He would have fallen into a life of alcohol, drugs, parties, etc...

As it is, this a man who has built an empire. He became a national Icon. He doesn't drink, doesn't smoke, and his main vice appears to be attractive Eastern European models.

Other than being slightly overweight, he's in remarkable physical condition for his age... proven (again) by his schedule, ability to keep up his energy level, and quite frankly remain sharp.


Meanwhile, the person you see as stable, has been investigated more times than we can almost remember, including at least three criminal investigations. She cannot seem to stop herself from doing things that benefit her financially, that otherwise look "corrupt" if only getting around the law through semantics and continuously losing of key pieces of evidence.

She has a compulsive need to keep things hidden, she is said to often times lose her temper, and Secret Service members consider her such a bitch to work for, that her detail is considered a punishment. The release of the email show that her aids had to baby sit her, in terms of remembering things, making sure she was up from naps, and otherwise suggesting she is often times confused.

Moreover, she has been prone to drinking over the yeas and her health is suspect.

Bottom Line Roger: if you could get those vile looking bug like creatures from your spine... you could see very clearly that there isn't really any tangible evidence to justify your feelings.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Yes, she has to find a way, a theme, or something to give the voters beyond Forward Together. And perhaps a way to diminish the perception that she's dishonest. In contrast to Trump, she's there for all of us. Will that work? But she has to get past the crooked Hillary theme.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

CH, I think that you are in denial. On a personal level, being completely honest with myself allows me to see reality. You ignore all the behavioral outbursts and compulsive disorders.

KD, Hillary JUST FELL DOWN AGAIN BREAKING NEWS said...

the dangerous temperament Trump exhibits daily."

She threw a lamp at bill the rapist after she found out he "Dicked" another Bimbo.

Bill the Rapist also let is slip the HER, faints "frequently".

There are many pictures of Hillary Drinking booze, there are none of Trump, why, Donald does not drink booze.

Alky, is that why you envy Trump because he was never an alky like you.

"$162,000" HB, LOL damn, just how stupid do you have to be to drink away so much wealth to be worth less then that dollar amount?

Tell us HB, maybe we can learn from your stupidity.

C.H. Truth said...

On a personal level, being completely honest with myself allows me to see reality.


So reality is that he is a multi-billionaire. That's a tangible fact built from his actions over the past 40-50 years. He doesn't smoke, do drugs, and never had a drink in his life.

None of this can be spun, turned around, misrepresented, or otherwise just plain lied about.

What you consider dangerous - thinks like border security and better vetting of Middle Eastern refugees is considered common sense within Homeland Security and Border control workers.

The problem here Roger is that you have created your entire opinion about Trump based on what you have read from Politico, Huffington Post, and the Talking Points Memo.

50 years of accomplishment is real.
10 months of being smeared by liberal journalist is mostly fantasy.

If you believe the latter... and believe you are being "honest" with yourself... then that tells us quite a bit about how your brain works. But don't worry, when we get the bug out from being wrapped around your spine, you will be able to actually think for yourself again.

C.H. Truth said...

But I will be fair with you Roger...

If you can explain to me how an impulsive, reckless, dangerous person can turn a million dollar loan into a multi-billion dollar empire, successfully start over 500 business (when the fail rate of new businesses is 50%) with limited failures... and go through his life without drinking, smoking, or doing any drugs. Raise a family, and actually rise to the position of a major Party candidate for President with "no" political experience..

Then we can start to have a discussion.

Because all of that sounds fairly impressive to me... and doesn't get me thinking this must be some sort of "Buffoon".

But if you are going to allow the opinions of journalists over the past few months to redefine his life into what they want you to believe... then it's simply not an argument.

It's a sign that you've been brainwashed.


Meanwhile, you continue to blindly follow someone who rose to her place in the world on the coat tails of being married to a successful politician. Someone who literally has no personal accomplishment beyond using her name to win a couple of election in New York, and being appointed a position in Obama's administration as a consolation prize for losing... and pretty much fucking up everything she has touched in the process, while ultimately costing the American public millions in investigations of criminal and other behavior.

She took an unsecured blackberry and accessed an unsecured server over foreign soil, and sent and received over 110 different threads of classified information, putting American men and women in danger... and she still won't admit it was a mistake.

And you call the "other guy" reckless?

And want us to believe that this is you "being honest with yourself"?

Commonsense said...

she's there for all of us

Except for the nearly half of the electorate she called "deplorable" and "irredeemable".

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

I'll say it again. I'm not blind by ideology. I'm an adult, rational and thoughtful person. I've been fascinated by human behavior in my entire life. My observation is dispassionat and analytical. My opinion is is that it's you, who is unable to be dispassionate and analytical in reference to Donald J. Trump.



C.H. Truth said...

I'll say it again.

In other words...

You have no actual ability to answer any of the questions that don't just fit in with your preconceived bias... so you just repeat the same thing again.

That's neither thoughtful or analytical. It's a matter of cognitive dissonance. You cannot answer these questions, therefore you ignore them and pretend they do not exist.

My opinion is is that it's you, who is unable to be dispassionate and analytical

So in other words... you're rubber and I'm glue, huh?

fascinating argument being made here.

KD said...

And the other Half she called Anti-Government bitter clingers.

Don't forget that for a second.

This planned attack was not on Trump but it was on ever COP, EMT, FIREFIGHTER, Blue Collar Worker and CEO that is for Trump.

polling in key "rust belt" states show that comment is killing HER, explains why HER is falling further behind President Trump.

Anonymous said...

In other words...

You have no actual ability to answer any of the questions that don't just fit in with your preconceived bias... so you just repeat the same thing again.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


he reminds me of the 'man on the street' interviews that happen on college campuses and in various cities where the interviewer asks the simple question -

"why do you support hillary clinton?"

often the answer is "vagina!"

other than that it's incoherent babble.

Anonymous said...

Trump scares the living shit out of me.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

so does the NRA.

Loretta said...

"I'll say it again. I'm not blind by ideology. I'm an adult, rational and thoughtful person."

Lordy