The point Gingrich was trying to make was that while there is certainly polling showing Trump behind in key states, he is arguing that the numbers on the ground (early voting, and absentee ballot requests) show Trump doing better than Romney did, while Clinton is lagging behind where Obama was. You cannot counter this particular argument by continuing to cite polls (especially when your guest stipulated to Trump's polling deficit multiple times). It completely misses the point of the argument that the polls are not reflecting what is happening in early voting. Her statement at the end for Gingrich to work on his "anger issues" was out of line.
TIPP and the tracking pollsters vs MSM and other pollsters - Let's start with the fact that TIPP has been considered the most accurate pollster over the past three elections. The person in charge of TIPP polling stands by their results showing a virtual tie, and states that they are not doing anything differently than they have over the past three elections.
But, the other pollsters make the argument that TIPP and other pollsters showing a close race are missing the point by simply doing the same thing that they have done in the past. They argue that these pollsters are not considering the changing of Demographics that is being built into many of these other polls showing a larger Clinton lead.
At the end of the day, this is a concession (to some degree) that the large Clinton leads are being propped up by a demographic make up that would be unprecedented. In 2014, the Republicans made up thirty seven percent of the vote and held a one point advantage. The most recent polls (showing Clinton with large leads) have the Republicans down double digits or more. In the recent AP/GfK poll, they show Republicans at twenty five percent, and a significant double digit Democratic advantage. That seems much more unlikely to me, than TIPP using a more traditional demographic makeup in 2016. The Democrats peaked in 2008, and have not reached that degree since. I find the argument that 2016 will be significantly better than 2008 to be wanting.
Lastly, the state polls simply do not correspond well to pollsters showing large Hillary Clinton leads. At this point, she is behind in two states won by Obama, and most of the battleground states are not polling all that different from the final 2012 results. If she was truly ahead nationally by upper single or double digit lead, that would correspond to a much bigger advantage in the collective state polls. The state polls seem to reflect a race much more similar to the 2012 race, than what these national pollsters are showing.
29 comments:
I notice you posted this at 6:06. I had already posted the following at 6:02:
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AP-GfK Poll: Clinton Appears on Cusp of Commanding Victory --Oct 26
Hillary Clinton appears on the cusp of a potentially commanding victory over Donald Trump, fueled by solid Democratic turnout in early voting, massive operational advantages and increasing enthusiasm among her supporters.
A new Associated Press-GfK poll released Wednesday finds that Clinton has grabbed significant advantages over her Republican rival with just 12 days left before Election Day. Among them: consolidating the support of her party and even winning some Republicans...
Overall, the poll shows Clinton leading Trump nationally by a staggering 14 percentage points among likely voters, 51-37. That margin is the largest national lead for Clinton among recent surveys. Most have generally shown her ahead of Trump for the past several weeks.
Link to the above. Read and weep, Ch.
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/ap-gfk-poll-clinton-appears-cusp-commanding-victory-43084097
James - it takes me longer than two minutes to write a post, so I think I was writing this before your comment.
Moreover, once again, you waste your time posting a poll that is already on the sidebar spreadsheet.
BTW, James...
A little brain teaser for you. Test your ability to use "logic".
If, as this poll suggests... Clinton is leading Trump by eight points "more" than Obama beat Romney... why are there no battleground states where she is polling eight points better than Trump? She should be up double digits in many of these states if she is winning nationally by 12.
Also, why is she losing Ohio, Iowa, and why would two of the past three polls in Florida who Trump ahead or tied? Those are states Obama won?
Seems to me that it's difficult to be be collectively 8 points better, if you are arguably no better in the pieces that make up the collective.
If, as this poll suggests... Clinton is leading Trump by eight points "more" than Obama beat Romney... why are there no battleground states where she is polling eight points better than Trump? She should be up double digits in many of these states if she is winning nationally by 12.*
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I suppose that would be because things are more competitive in the battleground states.
Well, Ch, I am glad you can be so rosy in your outlook.
Nate Smith gives the following possibilities:
State--Win by CLINTON chances in percentages
ME -- 87.1%
NH -- 85.8
VT -- 98.5
MA -- 99.9
RI -- 95.8
CT -- 97.7
NY -- 99.9
NJ -- 98.3
PA -- 89.5
DE -- 95.8
MD -- 99.9
DC -- 99.9
PA -- 89.5
0H -- 52.4
MI -- 89.9
WI -- 88.5
MI -- 91.0
IA -- 50.2
IL -- 99.5
VA -- 93.7
NC -- 68.9
FL -- 70.8
CO -- 88.8
NM -- 94.0
AZ -- 56.2
NV -- 69.3
WA -- 98.7
OR -- 97.3
CA -- 99.9
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*(By 14, the AP/GFK poll said.)
Even if Trump does get Ohio and Iowa, which are close, but can't get Florida (which is not) he loses.
For some reason, I suspect the formula in some cells is 'if=(cell)=(R)+2
Minnesota 45.3 40.3 Clinton +5.0Trending Up
Colorado 44.6 38.4 Clinton +6.2Trending Down
Virginia 46.0 38.8 Clinton +7.2Trending Down
Georgia 43.7 47.0 Trump +3.3
New Hampshire 45.0 38.0 Clinton +7.0Trending Down
Maine 42.0 36.8 Clinton +5.2
Arizona 43.5 42.0 Clinton +1.5
Florida 46.4 44.8 Clinton +1.6Trending Down
Ohio 43.7 44.8 Trump +1.1Trending Up
Pennsylvania 45.7 41.3 Clinton +4.4Trending Down
Wisconsin 46.0 39.3 Clinton +6.7Trending Down
North Carolina 45.8 43.8 Clinton +2.0Trending Down
Iowa 38.0 41.7 Trump +3.7
Nevada 45.3 43.3 Clinton +2.0Trending Down
Trending down a bit, but when you look at what polls show the downward tilt tent to be R Friendly.
The other thing, is the Republicans are coming home. But that's not sufficient to change the educated men and women are not coming along. That video has had a negative effect on the women's vote. Clinton is still going to get well over ECV.
Utah, is a real wildcard, with the independent in the lead, those EV are going to be damaging to the Donald.
In 12 days, Clinton may just get Ohio.
Clinton in a landslide!
Washington (Biased) Post on women Republicans.
A growing number of prominent Republican women are worried that as members of their male-dominated party step up to defend Donald Trump against accusations of sexual assault, they are causing irreparable damage to the GOP’s deteriorating relationship with female voters.
Trump has faced questions throughout his campaign about his crass comments about women, but concern escalated this month following the release of a 2005 video in which Trump boasted that he had sexually assaulted women and subsequent allegations by 11 women that Trump had inappropriately touched or kissed them. A series of mostly male Republicans have come to Trump’s defense — dismissing the accusers as liars and, some worry, further alienating the female voters that the party desperately needs to survive.
“For next-generation professional women, the party is going to have to do something very, very drastic to change the course of where this candidate has taken us,” said Katie Packer, a deputy campaign manager for Mitt Romney in 2012. “I think the leaders in our party are going to have to aggressively reject this. Come November 9, they better be prepared to make very strong statements condemning all of Trump’s behavior.”
This division within the Republican Party comes as polls suggest the nation is on the verge of electing its first female president even as misogyny remains a part of American life and culture. Ironically, it is Trump’s candidacy rather than Hillary Clinton’s that has brought sexism to the forefront of political debate.
A growing number of well-known female Republican strategists and politicians have had it with Trump. Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) said earlier this month she “cannot and will not support a candidate for president who brags about degrading and assaulting women.” Former presidential candidate Carly Fiorina, whose looks Trump once mocked, said “Donald Trump does not represent me or my party.” And former secretary of state Condoleezza Rice wrote on Facebook earlier this month: “Enough! Donald Trump should not be President.”
Nicolle Wallace, former communications chief for George W. Bush who is now a political commentator, tweeted that Republicans are now “engaged in a hot war against women that will end badly” for the party.
“Men like @newtgingrich are a big reason the GOP has lost women,” Packer wrote in another tweet. “Men like him don’t make women like me want to share a ‘tent’ w/them.”
Earlier this week, Kellyanne Conway, Trump’s campaign manager and the first woman to lead a GOP presidential nominee’s campaign, seemed to struggle when asked by CNN’s Dana Bash if she believes the women who have accused Trump of sexual assault.
“I believe — Donald Trump has told me and his family, and the rest of America now, that none of this is true,” Conway said. “These are lies and fabrications. They’re all made up. And I think that it’s not for me to judge what those women believe. I’ve not talked to them, I’ve talked to him.”
Trump has repeatedly denied allegations of abuse or sexism and has bragged about empowering female employees in his businesses.
“Nobody has more respect for women than I do,” Trump said during the last presidential debate when asked about his accusers, prompting laughter from the crowd in Las Vegas.
Carrie Almond, president of the National Federation of Republican Women, has traveled to 39 states in an RV this year, talking with thousands of women who enthusiastically support Trump and believe the party speaks for them.
“It’s very important to not put all women into the same basket because not everyone sees everything the same way,” said Almond, who is from Missouri.
When confronted with criticism, Trump tends to go after women in much more personal and demeaning ways than men, even though he insists he is an equal-opportunity counterpuncher. Trump’s attacks on female journalists, accusers and rivals over the past year have been heavy with criticism of their looks, their intelligence and their mental health.
After the first debate during the Republican primary — which featured three moderators, two men and one woman, who all peppered him with uncomfortable questions — Trump zeroed in on the woman, Kelly, for asking him about comments he makes about women. After the debate, Trump said that Kelly had “blood coming out of her eyes, blood coming out of her wherever.”
[Donald Trump calls her ‘Crooked Hillary,’ but his fans just say ‘b----’]
When the Muslim American parents of a soldier killed in Iraq in 2004 appeared at the Democratic National Convention in July in opposition to Trump’s candidacy, Trump zeroed in on the mother, Ghazala Khan, saying in an ABC News interview: “She had nothing to say. She probably — maybe she wasn’t allowed to have anything to say.” Khan later said it is still too difficult for her to talk about her son’s death.
In early September, when the hosts of MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” were critical of Trump, he zeroed in on the female host, Mika Brzezinski, tweeting: “Just heard that crazy and very dumb @morningmika had a mental breakdown while talking about me on the low ratings @Morning_Joe. Joe a mess!”
Trump has told NBC’s Katy Tur to “be quiet” when she pressed him during a news conference, and snapped at CNN’s Dana Bash on Wednesday that she was “rude” to ask about the propriety of holding an event boosting his new Washington hotel. He urged his millions of Twitter followers to search for a seemingly nonexistent “sex tape” of a former Miss Universe whom he had criticized as fat. And he has accused Hillary Clinton of lacking “a presidential look.”
When Trump made a similar critique of Fiorina during the primaries, she responded: “I think women all over this country heard very clearly what Mr. Trump said.”
The polls have a flaw… they follow the money more than what the people say. In the past the polls have had some success by following the money but things have changed greatly. Pretty much everyone doing the poll counting these days has so disenfranchised themselves from we the people they have no idea what we the people are doing or thinking. No not even a clue. I do believe when the ACTUAL count is arrived at… the results will show a landslide of we the people who chose to get our America back rather than deal with dictators and the New World Order and their completely pathetic want-a-bee ruler puppets.
Clinton has been in public life for thirty years. She is far more experienced than almost anyone who has run for the office. Anyone who has been in politics for that long, is going to make some people hate her. I think it's worse than in most cases because the Republicans have always been attacking Bill and Hillary from the first time Bill Clinton emerged. It got so bad they impeached him. But the Senate wouldn't convicted him. I've thought they were irrational in their hatred. It continues to this day. That's why this highly intelligent and experienced candidate has such negative numbers. Not because she's not qualified. But because the Republicans have been somewhat successful. But she's going to kick his ass. And she will be successful.
Trump is right. 30 years of failure is the wrong experience to bring to the White House.
If Clinton wins it will be the same old status quo cronyism we've seen for the last 8 years.
Who really wants that except for the sycophants on this blog.
According to CBS News,vin Florida Republicans lead Democrats 42% to 40% in early voting.
That does not bode well for Democrats in Florida who need to run up early voting to have a chance of winning.
In North Carolina, it looks much better for Democrats, they have a 20 point lead.
Trump needs both states to win.
But she's going to kick his ass. And she will be successful.
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maybe.
if they can "get her right in the head" and "sober her up."
you can relate, no?
Is Cliff Alex Jones in disguise?
Early Voting Favors Clinton in Key States
In a number of key swing states, the early voting clearly favors Hillary Clinton. In Nevada, early voting began on Saturday and as of Tuesday, Democrats had banked a 23,000-vote advantage (15%) of the 150,000 votes already cast. In Colorado, the Democrats also hold a 23,000-vote edge. In Arizona, the Democrats hold a small lead in a state that has voted against the Republican only once in the past 60 years.
In Florida, Latino early voting has almost doubled from 2012. Women in Florida are also casting early ballots in record numbers. In North Carolina, more Republicans have voted early than Democrats, but the lead is appreciably less than it was in 2012. In Texas, voting is surging in counties that are heavily Democratic. In Travis County (Austin), early voting has more than doubled compared to 2012. All in all, the only bright spot for Donald Trump is Iowa, but the Hawkeye State, where Trump is leading in the polls, has only 6 electoral votes. (Tannenbaum)
______________
More National Polls Favor Clinton
Three more national polls released yesterday show Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump, although the spread is fairly large. Suffolk University has her ahead 49% to 39%, AP/GfK has her up 54% to 41%, and Fox News has it as 49% to 44% for Clinton. If we average all three polls, we come up with a Clinton lead of 9.3 points. That is getting dangerously close to 10 points, at which point there could be severe damage to the Republicans downballot. (Tannenbaum)
Irreparable damage
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Pres/Maps/Oct27.html#item-8
Attacking Obamacare, Trump gets egg on his face -- again.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Pres/Maps/Oct27.html#item-7
ObamaCare is a financial disaster for real people on real budgets.
The Left does not care, it is all about power, so Elect Hillary.
The great news, is IF, and it is getting to be a bigger IF everyday, she can not blame the broken economy and the broken ObamaCare on anyone but Obama and the Lock Step Liberals.
Remember the Socialist told the World we in the USA would come to "love Obamacare".
That has not happened, rates have been and will continue to sky rocket as more illegals get health care Insurance for free (not free to us that still pay taxes and work). The promise there too was not a single illegal would ever be on ObamaCare, that too was a Yuge Lie.
Now this:
"WASHINGTON — The architects of the Affordable Care Act thought they had a blunt instrument to force people — even young and healthy ones — to buy insurance through the law’s online marketplaces: a tax penalty for those who remain uninsured.
It has not worked all that well, and that is at least partly to blame for soaring premiums next year on some of the health law’s insurance exchanges.
The full weight of the penalty will not be felt until April, when those who have avoided buying insurance will face penalties of around $700 a person or more. But even then that might not be enough: For the young and healthy who are badly needed to make the exchanges work, it is sometimes cheaper to pay the Internal Revenue Service than an insurance company charging large premiums, with huge deductibles.
“In my experience, the penalty has not been large enough to motivate people to sign up for insurance,” said Christine Speidel, a tax lawyer at Vermont Legal Aid."
And for those of us on private plans with sky rocking premiums, it is no better.
"William H. Weber, 51, a business consultant in Atlanta, said he paid $1,400 a month this year for a Humana health plan that covered him and his wife and two children. Premiums will increase 60 percent next year, Mr. Weber said, and he does not see alternative policies that would be less expensive. So he said he was seriously considering dropping insurance and paying the penalty."
Millions of young people are not playing the game at all, they just scoff at ObamaCare.
IF we had an honest liberal here, we could actually debate this and they could tell us Hillary's Fix for this.
Herod the Great
Richard the Lion-hearted
Jack the Ripper
Donald the Grabber
“In my experience, the penalty has not been large enough to motivate people to sign up for insurance,” said Christine Speidel, a tax lawyer at Vermont Legal Aid."
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
my prediction -
the penalties get raised to a truly atmospheric and punitive level to severely punish those who refuse to participate in the charade.
the ACA was never about helping people. it was always about controlling people and coming down hard who resisted and insisted upon retaining their freedoms and liberties.
truly atmospheric and punitive level"
Exactly, IF Weird Hillary steals this election, she has promised to give the left what they really want, Single Payer, also known as the next great tax hike for Socialism.
When over half of the adults in the USA today get a check from the Gov't for doing nothing, there is no way Trump can win. The voters in the last two presidential races have spoken, they want those of US that still work, we are fewer every year for the last 8 years, to pay in more to Government and take home less to feed, cloth and house are families.
Progressives love to punish the workers to give to the interlopers.
Look at HB, he has told us over and over again what a disaster his finances are, so he has to vote for money to come to him from others like me that work.
WikiLeaks connected all the dots
Hillary server was set up to avoid the public open records laws. Obama emailed Hillary to her secret email account (he said he found out about the emails/server in the news- 100 % Lie). The so called FBI lead Agent on this so called investigation was paid thru Hillary, to the FBI Wife a Democrat Elected Official, 10's of thousands of dollars. That Agent made darn sure evidence was destroyed and gave Hillary plenty of lead time to get rid of evidence. Comey, was also paid off.
Bill the Rapist meets with AG Lynch to give her the news, IF she can "fix" this, she will be at the top of the list for the US Supreme Court Job.
Next day, Lynch goes off grid on this case.
Shortly after Comey, doing what Hillary paid him to do, declines to send HER case for prosecution. BUT, Tells the rest of us Americans, that IF we did what she did WE would be fully prosecuted.
This is what 8 years of Hillary will hold for us.
A bad apple about to be taken down by trump
Now Mr. Obama hopes to help usher Mr. Issa back into private life, saying Mr. Issa’s “primary contribution to the United States Congress has been to obstruct and to waste taxpayer dollars on trumped-up investigations that have led nowhere.”
Bye bye, darryl. Seems his poll numbers are sinking with donnie's.
In Eight years of this loser pResident , he has never worked for the betterment of ALL of us, he has never tried.
Hillary promises a third term of this same hate of Americans, that disagree with her, nothing in her campaign pointed to being the pResident of ALL of us, working for a common goal.
I really do hope she wins. I have a lot of money invested in her favorite form of Energy, Fracking.
Obama administration grants $28 million to states dealing with declining coal industry"
Valerie Volcovici, Reuters October 26th,2016
This is the kind of dumbshit O'Hillary does, they first attack and over regulate the Industry, throwing 10's of thousands into unemployment then just days before an election they pour our tax dollars into 13 key states, are you really going to vote for more of this corruption?
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