Final analysis...

My first thought is that the sun will rise tomorrow regardless of who wins. There will be no nuclear holocaust, stock market crash, or wild realignment of the world order. These are two of the worst candidates we have ever seen, and probably "hope" to ever see. But this doesn't mean that our Country cannot survive the next four years.

The irony is that Clinton hasn't necessarily ran a bad campaign. She raised huge amounts of money and has huge organizational advantages. Her problem is that she's just a bad candidate with little to offer other than a history of corruption, deceit, and a lust for power. She is fortunate to be running against probably the only candidate from the Republican Party she could beat. There is little more she has to offer, that she could possibly point back to if she were to lose. For her, she is what she is. Take it or leave it.

Trump has run an up and down campaign. At times, he was self destructive. At other times, he was disciplined and on point. His history and current habit of saying politically incorrect things about women, minorities, and pretty much everyone in between has been harmful in the same way that Hillary Clinton has been harmed by her past. He is also fortunate to be running against the only candidate from the Democratic Party who he could probably beat. If he were to lose, there will be much hand wringing about "what could have been" had he not engaged in a litany of events that seem to continuously stop him from gathering momentum. Had he not engaged the gold star family, had he prepped for the first debate, etc...

At this moment in time the major consensus is that this is Hillary's race to lose. I wouldn't bet my mortgage on it, but if you stuck a gun to my head I would agree that she has to be a slight favorite right now. However, this morning you have some caveats being offered by people like Nate Silver who (like myself) see the large number of undecideds and those claiming to support Third Party candidates as an opportunity for the polling to be off by by at least a point or two. There is also an admission on the 538 blog that they will probably "miss some states" this year, suggesting a large lack of confidence in their projections. Apparently they are as uneasy as me.

Some of the conventional wisdom is puzzling to me. North Carolina is great example. This is a state that Romney won in 2012. Trump is leading slightly in the polls (according to RCP). In spite of almost no ground game, Trump is beating Romney's early voting numbers. In spite of a huge ground game, Clinton is trailing Obama early vote totals. Black vote (which is huge in North Carolina for Democrats) is significantly down in early voting. Under normal circumstances one might think that this bodes well for Trump.  Yet most everyone (including Silver and Sabato) has Clinton winning this state. I feel like I am "missing something" here. Like there is some inside information that everyone is privy to, that I just don't see.

Anyways, it's been an interesting Election season. Probably the most interesting in our lifetimes. I hope everyone enjoyed the analysis and spirited back and forth on the threads. Part of me is sad to think that as of tomorrow, this is all over (well maybe). The other part of me will be very relieved that this is "finally" over.