The question for every election, especially mid-terms is how enthusiastic is your base. Generally there is a drop in turnout in the midterms, and generally that drop is more prevalent with independents.
So the relevancy of how popular Trump is with Republicans is pretty high. The so called "blue wave" is predicated on the assumption that Democrats are highly motivated, while Republicans are wishy washy about things.
The fact that Trump holds an 87% approval rating among Republicans will bode well for Republican candidates, especially in states like Montana, Indiana, and South Dakota, where Democrats are trying to hold on to Senate seats in deep red states.
Obviously there are many, many analysts who are pretty married to the idea of a blue wave. Nate Silver at one time suggested that Democrats would need to win the overall congressional vote by somewhere between 6-8 points nationally... in order to retake the house. Back then the generic ballot favored the Democrats by more than that much.
At this point, the generic ballot is about half of what Silver suggested was required for the Democrats to win the House, yet most of these same analysts are still convinced that they are favored to do so. Time will tell if they are correct, but it would be very wise to not "discount" an 87% approval rating within the Republican party.
"James said... And notice that I can talk to you without using profanities or obscenities.
Sorry you are challenged in that way."
Thanks for pointing that out. I do tend to begin using profanities when confronting lies or weasels, of which you are often both. I guess if you didn't resort to those I may be much more civil.
Thanks for mentioning Nate Silver, Ch. We might want to see how he feels about tonight's outcomes: The Late Races To Watch on the Biggest Primary Day of 2018:
If you had asked me six months ago who I thought would win control of the House of Representatives in 2018, I wouldn’t have hesitated before answering, “It’s early, but Democrats are heavily favored, although conventional wisdom has been very slow to catch up.” With a raft of GOP retirements in highly vulnerable open seats, a president with job approval ratings in the 30s, and a generic ballot lead for Democrats in the double digits, it was increasingly difficult to spell out a path to victory for Republicans. In fact, things were bad enough that it appeared their losses could grow into the 40 or even 50 seat range.
Things have changed. If the election were held today, it’s not clear who would hold the chamber. I might put a thumb on the scale for Republicans, but right now – and it is still early – the House is likely to be close. Once again, conventional wisdom seems slow to catch up, with analysts still discussing the toxic environment for Republicans.
james weaseling is changing your comment from Trump will have a negative approval rating of ??? to having a negative spread. That is not a math error, which you also had when calculating the spread. That is weaseling to cover up an impossibility. And you further weaseled on your reply.
As I said, get back to us when Trump has a negative approval rating of ??? Guess we would never hear from you again.
ROFLMFAO !!
and no need to keep weaseling, you fool no one.
And since you also have said you would no longer respond to me I guess that is also a lie. What a mountain of weasels and lies, time for you to turn a new leaf...
24 comments:
And continuing to trend up.
Driving left wing crazy.
More popcorn PLEAZE !!
GALLUP
Obama's approval rating at this time was 47%.
Trump's at this time is 41%.
Obama was above 50% numerous times.
Trump has never been above 50% even once.
Obama left the office with an approval rating of plus 58%.
Trump will leave office with an approval rating of minus ???.
james said "Trump will leave office with an approval rating of minus ???. "
See, that is actually impossible and a lie.
For someone who claims not to lie you sure do here A LOT
No need to thank me for pointing that out.
And by the way, TRUMP RCP AVERAGE UP TO 44.6 APPROVAL
Quite a nice uptrend with all those thousands of shoes dropping and all the media hysterics.
Could it be a RED WAVE FORMING ???
FYI that is not "impossible" since you appear to have no understanding of the word
You suffer from several forms of inability to think.
Why is it impossible?
If he has never been above 50% on the Gallup,
why should he be above 50% when the American
voters send him packing?
And how can a speculative question be a lie?
You lack cogent ability on so many levels.
No need to thank me for pointing that out.
You are a fucking idiot.
FYI Trumps approval rating is currently 44.6
The lowest possible is zero.
It can't be negative, that is mathematically impossible.
You need serious help
Better stick to your black power salutes.
ROFLMFAO !!!
Trump's present job approval/disapproval rating on the
RealClearPolitaics aggregates is
+44.6% APPROVAL
-52.8% DISAPPROVAL for a NEGATIVE OF -8.8.
on the Gallup,
+41% APPROVAL
-55% DISAPPROVAL for a NEGATIVE OF -14.
Roll on the floor about that. :-)
And notice that I can talk to you
without using profanities or obscenities.
Sorry you are challenged in that way.
James...
The question for every election, especially mid-terms is how enthusiastic is your base. Generally there is a drop in turnout in the midterms, and generally that drop is more prevalent with independents.
So the relevancy of how popular Trump is with Republicans is pretty high. The so called "blue wave" is predicated on the assumption that Democrats are highly motivated, while Republicans are wishy washy about things.
The fact that Trump holds an 87% approval rating among Republicans will bode well for Republican candidates, especially in states like Montana, Indiana, and South Dakota, where Democrats are trying to hold on to Senate seats in deep red states.
Obviously there are many, many analysts who are pretty married to the idea of a blue wave. Nate Silver at one time suggested that Democrats would need to win the overall congressional vote by somewhere between 6-8 points nationally... in order to retake the house. Back then the generic ballot favored the Democrats by more than that much.
At this point, the generic ballot is about half of what Silver suggested was required for the Democrats to win the House, yet most of these same analysts are still convinced that they are favored to do so. Time will tell if they are correct, but it would be very wise to not "discount" an 87% approval rating within the Republican party.
Obama was popular.
Obamacare was not.
Trump is less popular.
His economy is pretty popular.
So you just proved what I said
HIS APPROVAL IS 44.6
Get back to us when it is negative, that is the number you quoted !!!
WHAT A FUCKING WEASEL of a "pastor" you are.
smh while ROFLMFAO !!!
btw the "spread" (as they refer to it) is -8.2, not the -8.8 you are trying to weasel into. You are wrong on so many levels. GIVE IT UP
"James said...
And notice that I can talk to you
without using profanities or obscenities.
Sorry you are challenged in that way."
Thanks for pointing that out. I do tend to begin using profanities when confronting lies or weasels, of which you are often both. I guess if you didn't resort to those I may be much more civil.
More Blacks like Trump Economy then the Lost Years economy.
Also, I do not have to resort to name calling.
Oh, and I did make a simple arithmetic mistake, no weaseling.
Thanks for mentioning Nate Silver, Ch. We might want to see how he feels about tonight's outcomes: The Late Races To Watch on the Biggest Primary Day of 2018:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-late-races-to-watch-on-the-biggest-primary-day-of-2018/
By Sean Trende
RCP Staff
May 24, 2018
If you had asked me six months ago who I thought would win control of the House of Representatives in 2018, I wouldn’t have hesitated before answering, “It’s early, but Democrats are heavily favored, although conventional wisdom has been very slow to catch up.” With a raft of GOP retirements in highly vulnerable open seats, a president with job approval ratings in the 30s, and a generic ballot lead for Democrats in the double digits, it was increasingly difficult to spell out a path to victory for Republicans. In fact, things were bad enough that it appeared their losses could grow into the 40 or even 50 seat range.
Things have changed. If the election were held today, it’s not clear who would hold the chamber. I might put a thumb on the scale for Republicans, but right now – and it is still early – the House is likely to be close. Once again, conventional wisdom seems slow to catch up, with analysts still discussing the toxic environment for Republicans.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/05/24/how_the_battle_for_the_house_is_shaping_up.html
What can be pointed to for the Reason the Blue Wave is gone.
1, Trump Economy winning Bigly
2, Mueller
3, Impeachment
james weaseling is changing your comment from Trump will have a negative approval rating of ??? to having a negative spread. That is not a math error, which you also had when calculating the spread. That is weaseling to cover up an impossibility. And you further weaseled on your reply.
As I said, get back to us when Trump has a negative approval rating of ??? Guess we would never hear from you again.
ROFLMFAO !!
and no need to keep weaseling, you fool no one.
And since you also have said you would no longer respond to me I guess that is also a lie. What a mountain of weasels and lies, time for you to turn a new leaf...
Jane is a snake. She will always slitter.
KD, the "pastor" is the slimiest weasel I've ever seen
well maybe the only one
ROFLMFAO !!!
Yep.
Obama's approval rating at this time was 47%.
And now he's as thoroughly erased from history as one of those minor pharaohs from ancient Egypt.
CS is normal is correct.
Obama grown ISIS being erased.
James and HB have Dems winning primaries, too stupid.
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