The good news for Republicans is that these districts look less Democratic than they did in November 2016. Hillary Clinton outpolled Donald Trump in all seven districts then, but this time Republican candidates got combined majorities of 53 percent to 63 percent in six of the seven. And in the seventh, the total Democratic lead was just 51 percent to 48 percent.So the bottom line is that in these seven districts (that the Democrats have pretty much already etched into the win column) they only found themselves in the majority in one of the races. Otherwise, these GOP districts still had more GOP primary voters than Democrat primary voters. This obviously runs counterintuitive to the idea that the Democrat voters are more highly motivated than the GOP voters are.
And let's face the facts... if Democrats are not more motivated in California, then where are they going to be more motivated? Much of the 2018 midterms will be in deep red playing fields, where Democrats are hoping that their "enthusiasm" can buck the trend.
Generic ballot polling is always helpful, but also can be misleading, especially with things like the Real Clear Politics average. You can have a cluster of polls more favorable to Republicans that all come out at the same time, pushing older polls more favorable to the Democrats off the list. Then you will have a cluster of polls more favorable to the Democrats that come out at the same time, and push the previous polls off the list. It's how you can see an average go from eight points to three points, back up to six points, down to four, and then back up to seven, and so forth and so on. It's also the reason why I have always made the determination to only include pollsters who poll consistently, and keep their most recent number in my average at all times.
By this assessment, I can tell you that the pendulum has been slowly but surely swinging in the direction of the GOP for several weeks. More recently that pendulum has started to swing back the other direction. I expect that it will settle somewhere in the middle (3-5 point Dem advantage) when all the swinging is done.
But what we know is that Super Tuesday was the first election we have had in a while (and really the first test of the newly tightening generic ballot). What we found is that the voter enthusiasm advantage that was assumed from previous special elections and other polling, was simply not present this time. Therefore, it would appear that the generic ballot tightening is real, and that the highly assumed blue wave may need a refueling.
I suspect that this is a combination of people overstating the importance of previous special elections, a reliance on some over-inflated generic polling leads for the Democrats, as well as some more recent tangible movement in the direction of Trump and the Republicans. You can only hang on to the anti-Trump venomous hate for so long, before it starts becoming "very" unattractive to people.
Either way, Michael Barone is one of the most highly respected election experts. Rarely is Barone seen as someone holding water for either camp. He's more of a numbers guy, and generally does not allow his personal feelings to cloud the numbers. His article on Tuesday's outcome is well worth the read.
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Either way, Michael Barone is one of the most highly respected election experts. Rarely is Barone seen as someone holding water for either camp. He's more of a numbers guy, and generally does not allow his personal feelings to cloud the numbers.
which means that the alky will dismiss him as a partisan in 5, 4, 3, 2...
I guess the latest generic ballot going to +10 for dems is lost on you. No surprise there.....
Another reason that the Blue Wave is going to be a little better than this Washington Examiner right leaning analystist.
President Donald Trump said Thursday he thinks he’s "very well prepared" for his summit meeting with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un but said the meeting is more about "attitude" than it is a matter of preparation.
“I think I'm very well-prepared. I don’t think I have to prepare very much. It's about attitude, it's about willingness to get things done. But I think I have been prepared for this summit for a very long time,” Trump said in the Oval Office when asked by a reporter what he’s doing to prepare for the June 12 meeting in Singapore.
Trump made the comment sitting next to Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe who was in Washington to discuss the summit.
The president added that the North Koreans are also prepared: “I think they’ve been preparing for a long time, also. So this isn’t a question of preparation, it’s a question of whether or not people want it to happen, and we’ll know that very quickly.”
War on the Korean Peninsula.
which means that the alky will dismiss him as a partisan in 5, 4, 3, 2..." RRB
Alky never disappoints.
Alky, we know your damaged, but damn son, openly wishing for War at the Expense of millions of dead for political reasons is a new low, even for your ilk.
Rudy Giuliani's mouth is spouting shit.
First lady Melania Trump’s office is sending a strong and clear message when it comes to Rudy Giuliani: Mrs. Trump speaks for herself, thank you very much.
On Wednesday when addressing a conference in Tel Aviv, Israel, Trump’s personal attorney Rudy Giuliani was asked about first lady's reaction to an alleged affair between Trump and porn star Stormy Daniels.
Giuliani replied, the first lady “believes her husband, and she knows it’s untrue. I don't even think there's a slight suspicion that it's true.
But Thursday, the first lady’s spokesperson forcefully swatted back.
“I don’t believe Mrs. Trump has ever discussed her thoughts on anything with Mr. Giuliani,” Stephanie Grisham, communications director for the first lady, told ABC News.
Mrs. Trump, who just Wednesday re-emerged for the first time after weeks out of the spotlight, has not discussed the alleged sexual encounter between Trump and Daniels in public. Mrs. Trump was a young mother at the time of the alleged affair.
“Look at his three wives. Beautiful women. Classy women. Women of great substance. Stormy Daniels?” Giuliani said while shaking his head. “I’m sorry I don’t respect a porn star the way I respect a career woman or a woman of substance or a woman who has great respect for herself as a woman and as a person and isn’t going to sell her body for sexual exploitation.”
Mr. Giuliani is a misogynist. His most recent comments regarding my client, who passed a lie detector test and who the American people believe, are disgusting and a disgrace. His client Mr. Trump didn’t seem to have any “moral” issues with her and others back in 2006 and beyond.
You're not worried about his multiple sexual assault and pussy grabbing by the President.
I have been accused of cheating on my first wife. Kput'z is fucking his cow Daisy.
Democrats Gain In Generic Ballot
A new FOX NEWS POLL finds 48% of voters favor the Democratic candidate in their congressional district and 39%the Republican.
That 9-point lead is up from a 5-point edge the Democrats held in March.
Women Will Fuel a Blue Wave
Dan Balz: “In election after election, whether primary contests or special elections, women have provided energy at the ballot box and, increasingly, the leadership as candidates for the Democrats. That was in evidence again Tuesday, another day of validation that the dynamics of American politics have shifted under this president. If Democrats are to win the House in November, they must hope that is maintained through Election Day, although there have been no signs that this energy is abating.”
First Read:
“Check out these numbers: In the merged NBC/WSJ polling of 2017, white women with college degrees preferred a Dem-controlled Congress by 17 points (55% to 38%).
In the merged NBC/WSJ polling from January to April, it was 26 points (60% to 34%).
And in this latest poll, the margin is now 30 points (60% to 30%).”
_______________
Blue wave a-coming.
Nate Silver disagrees that the minor changes are unlikely to continue. Historically the polls conducted at this point in time are not going to move in the direction Barone says.
With the 2018 midterm elections approaching, we’ve updated FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings for the first time since the 2016 presidential primaries. Based on how the media portrayed the polls after President Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton later that year, you might expect pollsters to get a pretty disastrous report card.
But here’s a stubborn and surprising fact — and one to keep in mind as midterm polls really start rolling in: Over the past two years — meaning in the 2016 general election and then in the various gubernatorial elections and special elections that have taken place in 2017 and 2018 — the accuracy of polls has been pretty much average by historical standards.
You read that right. Polls of the November 2016 presidential election were about as accurate as polls of presidential elections have been on average since 1972. And polls of gubernatorial and congressional elections in 2016 were about as accurate, on average, as polls of those races since 1998. Furthermore, polls of elections since 2016 — meaning, the 2017 gubernatorial elections and the various special elections to Congress this year and last year — have been slightly more accurate than average. This isn’t just a U.S. phenomenon: Despite often inaccurate and innumerate criticism over how polling fared in events like Brexit, a recent, comprehensive study of polling accuracy by Professor Will Jennings of the University of Southampton and Professor Christopher Wlezien of the University of Texas at Austin found polling accuracy has been fairly consistent over the past several decades in a variety of democratic countries in Europe, Asia and the Americas.
Kasich Lays Out Foreign Policy Vision
"Although American leaders should always put American interests first, that does not mean that we have to build walls, close off markets, or isolate the United States by acting in ways that alienate our allies. Continuing to do that will not insulate us from external challenges; it will simply turn us into bystanders with less and less influence. I choose cooperation and engagement. Only those who have forgotten the lessons of history can credibly contend that peace and prosperity await us inside ‘Fortress America.'”
And meanwhile what do we have in the White House?
THE LAZIEST PRESIDENT IN HISTORY
Donald Trump possessed less relevant experience and subject expertise for the job of president than any person ever elected to the job. Those deficits can be offset, to a degree, with dogged study and hard work. But rather than make up for his historical lack of qualifications, Trump has compounded the problem with historical laziness. He famously lounges in front of the television having ‘Executive Time’ until 11 a.m., checks out early, refuses to read briefings, and otherwise disdains the most important parts of his job.
50
40
People...
We just had a primary election in California were every "purple district" but one had more Republican voters than Democrat voters show up.
That is consistent with a tightening of the situation.
We can all "deep down" feel it!!!
NBC News/WSJ poll: Economic satisfaction under Trump isn't helping his party's 2018 chances,
Historically the mid term election is not good news for a regular election. Given the fact that Trump is not a standard issue President it's unlikely that the trend is going in the wrong direction for the Republicans.
By a whopping 25-point margin, voters say they’re more likely to back a congressional candidate who promises to serve as a check on President Donald Trump, according to a new national poll from NBC News and the Wall Street Journal.
And by a similar margin, they say they’re less likely to vote for someone who has supported the president on most issues.
At the same time, six-in-10 are satisfied with the U.S. economy, and a plurality of voters give Trump credit for the economic improvement.
Despite that economic optimism, however, the poll shows that Democrats enjoy a 10-point advantage on congressional preference, with 50 percent of registered voters wanting a Democratic-controlled Congress, versus 40 percent who want a GOP-controlled one.
Democrats held a 7-point edge on this question back in April, 47 percent to 40 percent.
The analysis provided by the host is a bit misleading. California has a very unusual primary voting system. You are not limited to your preferred party to vote for. Some of my ballots had 4 to 6 people on the ballot for one district, mixed between Republicans and Democrats. The Democrats won every one listed and a couple of them have two Democrats on the November election ballot.
Given the fact that educated women in the suburbs are going to be far more friendly to the generic Democrat because the Republicans are saddled with Trump. His approval women is deteriorating at a record pace.
And 48 percent of voters indicate they’re more likely to support a congressional candidate who promises to provide a check on President Trump, compared with 23 percent who say they’re less likely to support such a candidate.
By contrast, a majority — 53 percent — say they’re less likely to vote for a candidate who supports the president on most issues.
In contrary the allegations by the host that the Democrats are motivated.
if Democrats are not more motivated in California, then where are they going to be more motivated? Much of the 2018 midterms will be in deep red playing fields, where Democrats are hoping that their "enthusiasm" can buck the trend.
Generic ballot polling is always helpful, but also can be misleading, especially with things like the Real Clear Politics average. You can have a cluster of polls more favorable to Republicans that all come out at the same time, pushing older polls more favorable to the Democrats off the list. Then you will have a cluster of polls more favorable to the Democrats that come out at the same time, and push the previous polls off the list.
What’s more, Democrats are more enthusiastic about the upcoming midterms, with 63 percent of them registering either a “9” or “10” on a 10-point scale of interest, while just 47 percent of Republicans signal the same level of enthusiasm.
And 48 percent of voters indicate they’re more likely to support a congressional candidate who promises to provide a check on President Trump, compared with 23 percent who say they’re less likely to support such a candidate.
By contrast, a majority — 53 percent — say they’re less likely to vote for a candidate who supports the president on most issues.
But here’s a stubborn and surprising fact — and one to keep in mind as midterm polls really start rolling in: Over the past two years — meaning in the 2016 general election and then in the various gubernatorial elections and special elections that have taken place in 2017 and 2018 — the accuracy of polls has been pretty much average by historical standards. Nate Silver.
Roger Amick: I expect that it will settle somewhere in the middle (7-8 point Dem advantage) when all the swinging is done. The house will change parties in November. The Senate is almost impossible or the Democrats but the President could make an error of epic proportions.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-economic-satisfaction-under-trump-isn-t-helping-his-party-n880721
We can all "deep down" feel it!!!
Feelings are usually non factual.
I felt that Kerry in a Landslide.
You seem to feel that Trump s a good President. The Truth will eventually prove your feelings betrayed you.
And Hillary
French President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday threatened to join with other world leaders to issue a rare rebuke of the United States at a global summit here this weekend, drawing immediate and sharp replies from President Trump.
Macron said Trump could be excluded from joining with other leaders in a joint declaration of unity at the end of a global summit here, a very unusual move that was meant to isolate Trump’s recent burst of trade threats aimed at numerous U.S. allies.
“The American President may not mind being isolated, but neither do we mind signing a 6 country agreement if need be,” Macron wrote on Twitter. “Because these 6 countries represent values, they represent an economic market which has the weight of history behind it and which is now a true international force.”
Trump is being banned at the G7
And the crashing stock market since nov. 9th, 2016. That is my third fav of yours Alky.
Wow, the other Nation are having a public socialist hiss fit. They were used to having prez pivot man.
The "Lost Years" DOJIA went from 7,000 to almost 20,000. 81 consecutive months of growth.
Berkshire Hathaway chairman Warren Buffett said he remains optimistic about the state of the U.S. economy in the coming years as the economy experiences a boom under the Trump administration.
“Right now, there’s no question: It’s feeling strong. I mean, if we’re in the sixth inning, we have our sluggers coming to bat right now,” Buffett told CNBC Thursday."
he "Lost Years" DOJIA"
Idiot.
Only 22 percent of Blacks during the Lost Years invested in Equities. Hispanics 25 percent. Leaving them behind make Alky very Happy.
Blogger Roger Amick said...
Trump is being banned at the G7
is that so, captain copy/paste?
has it ever occurred to you that we might have read all the stories you've shat upon this blog? geezus alky, why don't you leave that shit to your hospice blog? let mail order and your other 3 twit followers read it.
Blogger Roger Amick said...
Nate Silver disagrees that the minor changes are unlikely to continue. Historically the polls conducted at this point in time are not going to move in the direction Barone says.
and who was it that ol nate placed his bet on in the last presidential race?
oh yeah...
felonia milhous von pantsuit.
the democrats have everything going for them in the mid terms except for one thing -
an actual reason to vote for them.
The NHL's Lord Stanley's Cup.
In 1974 The Washington Capitals entered the League they had not won it all. Last night the did.
Congrats.
This Nate Silver??
What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like
By Nate Silver
Filed under 2016 Election"
We’re going to spend a lot of time over the next 87 days contemplating the possibility of a Donald Trump presidency. Trump is a significant underdog — he has a 13 percent chance of winning the election according to our polls-only model and a 23 percent chance according to polls-plus. But those probabilities aren’t that small. For comparison, you have a 17 percent chance of losing a “game” of Russian roulette.
But there’s another possibility staring us right in the face: A potential Hillary Clinton landslide. Our polls-only model projects Clinton to win the election by 7.7 percentage points, about the same margin by which Barack Obama beat John McCain in 2008. And it assigns a 35 percent chance to Clinton winning by double digits.
Our other model, polls-plus, is much more conservative about Clinton’s prospects. If this were an ordinary election, the smart money would be on the race tightening down the stretch run, and coming more into line with economic “fundamentals” that suggest the election ought to be close. Since this is how the polls-plus model “thinks,” it projects Clinton to win by around 4 points, about the margin by which Obama beat Mitt Romney in 2012 — a solid victory but a long way from a landslide.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/
thanks for that humorous trip down memory lane KD.
good 'ol nate. he framed out every single possible scenario he could think of except for one -
a trump victory.
fucking toolbag.
a trump victory.
fucking toolbag." RRB
Makes me wonder why the Democrats are hiding, BLM and Atifa?
"Because these 6 countries represent values, they represent an economic market which has the weight of history behind it and which is now a true international force.”"
Thanks to the United States.
What I see is they are telling the US they loved punking bent over little obimbo and want to continue sucking wealth out of the US.
and want to continue sucking wealth out of the US.
Like you and your inability to work or post a cogent thought???????
Thanks to the United States.
bingo. this part always gets left out. thanks to us they can spend lavishly on welfare programs since they don't need to spend a dime on their own national defense.
oh, and all putin needs to do is turn off their nat gas supply in the dead of winter and they're fucked.
these cheese eating surrender monkeys need to learn some humility.
huh. anthony bourdain took the big dirt nap.
parts unknown? not anymore.
these cheese eating surrender monkeys need to learn some humility.
BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!! Feeling pretty trumpian today, loser?????? Don't spend a dime.....yeah sure.....LOL Keep drinking the trump BS....
oh hey d0pie...
how did you and your racing team make out at the indy 500 this year?
i'm assuming you didn't win since i didn't see a fat diabetic recovering stroke victim on the podium.
VDH nails it again:
The Western world is in turmoil largely because of the widening gap between what the people see as true and the “truth” that their governing classes impose on them for the purported greater moral good. The result is a schizophrenia like that seen before the collapse of the Soviet Empire, in which no one believed that the reality they lived had anything to do with the reality delivered by the media and the state. Trumpism and popular movements in Europe are simply symptoms of another problem—that what the ruling elite said was true was often a lie.
https://www.hoover.org/research/ten-paradoxes-our-age?utm_source=Defining+Ideas+Subscribers&utm_campaign=783dfbf612-Defining_Ideas_01_26_17_1_26_2017_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_31433b2ef9-783dfbf612-72877693
yeah... 8 long years of lie after lie after lie from 0linsky will do that to a nation.
The Western world is in turmoil largely because of the widening gap between what the people see as true
Like the constant lying of trump you too have lost the ability to ferret out what the truth is.....Yeah, VDH has stated the obvious which is lost to sycophants like you who make excuses to rationalize your adoration to a megalomaniac.....
Hey asswipe, how's your idiot wife dealing with your stupidity??????? LOLOLOL
Award-winning chef, writer and television personality Anthony Bourdain has died in an apparent suicide, according to CNN. He was 61.
CNN confirmed his death in a statement Friday.
"It is with extraordinary sadness we can confirm the death of our friend and colleague, Anthony Bourdain," the network said. "His love of great adventure, new friends, fine food and drink and the remarkable stories of the world made him a unique storyteller. His talents never ceased to amaze us and we will miss him very much. Our thoughts and prayers are with his daughter and family at this incredibly difficult time."
thanks for yet another copy/paste that we already knew about alky.
i'm curious - does this make you feel important or something?
“The American President may not mind being isolated, but neither do we mind signing a 6 country agreement if need be,” Macron wrote on Twitter. “Because these 6 countries represent values, they represent an economic market which has the weight of history behind it and which is now a true international force.”
yeah, you represent values alright. like the value of requesting an exemption from the iran sanctions so you can continue to do business with those murderous terrorist scumbags.
some values.
has trump told you clowns to go fuck yourself lately? if not, he is long overdue.
Speaking of ass clowns....look in the mirror lately rat hole???? Wonder what your wife sees????
Even though our esteemed host thinks lying is not a crime....here is an example he will probably want tossed in jail forever because of the position....even though flynn et al have all pled to the same crime....he feels they are being persecuted....sad, very sad...
A federal grand jury indicted the staffer, James A. Wolfe, 58, on three counts of making false statements in December about contacts with reporters, including providing sensitive information related to the work of the Senate Intelligence Committee, which he served as security director for 29 years. He was arrested Thursday and is expected to appear in U.S. District Court for the District of Maryland on Friday.
Those are the same freeloaders of NATO not paying thier fair share and stainglass behind the broad shoulders of the US Military. Start pulling troops and watch the Pee-U cry.
Oh look an actual crime. Charge the Reporters next.
" sensitive information related to the work of the Senate Intelligence Committee".
But, this guy is not a "spy".
Stroke Victim NannystateNancy
"Believing Democrats will be successful in the November elections, she said she’d like to “also point out the intensity factor that is out there. Democrats are maybe 15 points, something like 63 to, um,” she said trailing off and
A voice off camera, either an aide or a reporter jumped in with “47.”
“47, is it?” she said in response.
Never mind it should have been 48.
“I’ve had concerns about China in three areas,” she said moments later. “Uh, the, certainly the disparate, the,” she said before pausing and staring. “Our trade deficit with China which is enormous,” she continued.
Fumbling her China analogy, she said, “We have to ride the drag— the China tiger,” before having trouble saying “shining.”
“The prac— fact is,” she said later, before getting tongue-tied trying to say “wages rising.”
“It’s about rages, uh, wages rising in our country,” Pelosi said.
Her final face spasm of the appearance came as she tried to say “consumer confidence.”
When will Democrats finally attempt to figure out what is wrong with Nancy Pelosi?
Wolfe will be prosecuted because he was leaking classified information to the NY Times, Politico, Buzzfeed, and others. Not sure if it will "just" be making false statements, but he will be prosecuted.
He is part of a wide reaching probe into criminal leaks, that our new leadership in the Justice Department wants to take seriously...
You lead classified information to the press.
You should do to jail every time.
she has a mini stroke during every presser.
Tangible Evidence
According to the special counsel, the five previously charged counts against Manafort remain unchanged: conspiracy against the United States, conspiracy to launder money, unregistered agent of a foreign principal, false and misleading FARA statements, and false statements.
The charges come as part of special counsel Robert Mueller’s year-long investigation into Russian meddling during the 2016 election.
In a court filing Monday night, attorneys with the special counsel accused Manafort of "attempting to tamper with potential witnesses" while awaiting his trial, which thereby "has violated the conditions of his release."
he was banging the skank at the ny times as he was feeding her info. all of the times reporters are prostitutes. some figuratively, some literally.
The thing this exposes, is they should all go to prison. Those receiving the US State Secrets are NOT protected by the first Amendment.
Traders and spies.
Alky, when does your team move to remove President Trump?
2024?
you know mueller doesn't have shit when all he can do is keep fucking with manafort.
an honest man with integrity would be too embarrassed to continue such a charade.
prosecuted because he was leaking classified information to the NY Times
The only assholes making that allegation are you and your liar in chief....The charges if you bothered to read them make no mention of classified information...Try again esteemed host, your bias is showing again!!!! No wonder why the country is so divided, jagoffs like you who believe every thing the POTUS utters...facts seem to be nothing more than an annoyance to sycophants...
Wrong again Dennis.
Mueller, demanding personal private phones. Sure, as RRB said, Hillary them then give them to Mr. Salem.
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