Sunday, July 8, 2018

Current odds

BetDSI:
  • Amy Coney Barrett +250
  • Brett Kavanaugh +350
  • Thomas Hardiman +500
  • Raymond Kethledge +800
  • Amul Thapar +1000
For what it's worth, my personal reading of the tea leaves is that Trump would like to nominate Barrett or Kavanaugh largely because there is stronger resistance to them. I get the feeling that Trump would welcome the attention that an extended nomination fight would provide. Politically, the bigger the hissy fit from the left, the bigger the potential political benefit Trump and the GOP would garner. I am not sure there isn't something to gain politically, if a well respected Justices like Barrett or Kavanaugh end up being defeated. Imagine going into the midterms, with the Democrats (and a couple of blue state Republicans) stepping up to stop the nomination. If there is one thing that would rally the GOP, it would be an open USSC seat come November. 

On the flip side, if Trump is interesting in keeping it simple and pretty much guaranteeing a confirmation by the time the next USSC session comes around, then Kethledge or Hardiman would be the logical choice. Hardiman seems to be a late entry into the mix. In spite of him supposedly being Trump's second choice behind Gorsuch last year, there wasn't much discussion (until the past 48 hours or so) on his chances. The fact that he has sort of come out of nowhere to be back in the mix, certainly provides him some dark horse status. Thapar might be my personal choice if it was my choice to make. He checks of the important mark of not being a white male, and he would likely be more conservative than pretty much every Justice except Thomas.

No matter who is is: Liberal college students are under the opinion that his pick in an abuse of power, is extreme, is radical, is racist, and should be wearing a white hood. And of course the news of this pick has spread outrage on social media:



Of course, he hasn't made that pick yet. I shutter to even consider sending my own children to college these days. They will come out a couple of brain dead followers.

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

Wait, what???? Roger's pick is not on the list???

Anonymous said...

Roger AmickJune 29, 2018 at 9:33 PM

My guess.

Diane Sykes of Wisconsin, U.S. Court of Appeals for the 7th Circuit. A former justice of the Wisconsin Supreme Court, "

Anonymous said...




government is just another name for all the stupid fucking shit we fuck up together:


LAS VEGAS -- A stamp that mistakenly featured the image of a Statue of Liberty replica in Las Vegas instead of the original New York Statue will cost the U.S. Postal Service $3.5 million in a copyright infringement lawsuit. Las Vegas sculptor Robert Davidson, who created the replica Lady Liberty in the facade at the New York-New York casino-resort on the Las Vegas Strip, sued the Postal Service five years ago over its 2011 "forever" stamp design.

The stamp featured the face of his Lady Liberty, which his attorneys argued in court filings was unmistakably different from the original and was more "fresh-faced," ''sultry" and even "sexier."

The Postal Service had been releasing the stamps for at least three months before discovering it was not an image of the New York statue.



https://www.cbsnews.com/news/statue-of-liberty-stamp-mistake-to-cost-u-s-postal-service-3-5-million/


Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Brett Kavanaugh +350

He scares me the least.

My early selection hadn't made it to the final list.

commie said...

Rat the huge hole posted...

government is just another name for all the stupid fucking shit we fuck up together:

And having to put up with idiots like you.....Too funny!!! You should be thankful...anywhere else in the world, you would have been killed off.....

commie said...

Paybacks are a bitch, especially if you are a trump voter hoping the tariffs bring more jobs back to the us....NOT!!!!!!

Politics
There's a mountain of evidence that Trump's trade fights will be most harmful to the people who voted for him
Business Insider Akin Oyedele,Business Insider 7 hours ago

port worker sunset
David McNew/Getty

Red states that voted for President Donald Trump in 2016 stand more to lose if other countries retaliate against US tariffs, according to economists at Citi.
The benefits of tariffs to domestic producers will be undermined by retaliation that specifically targets sectors this administration champions, Citi said.
In President Donald Trump's trade war, the states he won during the election are the most defenseless.

That's according to economists at Citi, who last week published a research note on which US states are most exposed to a trade war and what this means for the midterm elections.

"With several economies now imposing retaliatory trade actions in the wake of the Trump administration’s trade tariffs, the stakes have risen for, and the evidence more compelling against, 'red' states by several measures," Citi's Dana Peterson said in the note. Trade wars may reverse the "hiring bonanza," she added.

The tariffs — taxes on imports to the US — were sold as a way to level the playing field between US producers and their foreign competition, and grow industry even more. But China, the European Union, Canada, India, and Mexico are set to retaliate.

On Friday, the US and China imposed tariffs on $34 billion worth of each other's goods, with China's Ministry of Commerce saying in a statement that Trump launched "the largest trade war in economic history."

Red states, so-called because they're historically Republican or voted for Trump in 2016, stand to lose more because they benefit the most from trade with other countries, Citi's Peterson said. Imports and exports to red states totaled $2.1 trillion last year, compared to $1.7 trillion for Democratic blue states. Texas, Michigan, and Illinois were among the largest contributors to trade nationwide, since they have some of the largest ports.

After examining the kinds of goods that could be taxed, Citi found that red states ship more to countries that could retaliate US tariffs. These exports include various kinds of food, beverages, luxury goods and medical appliances — all of which are under the purview of tariffs.

This chart shows the red states exposed to reciprocal tariffs:

commie said...

I'm sure wisconsin farmers will feel the trump pinch also....oh well, remember where the winning electoral college votes came from!!!!! Good job boys!!!


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July 06, 2018 03:22 PM
WASHINGTON
They voted for Donald Trump after he promised to protect American agriculture and reduce regulations. But many U.S. dairy farmers are now stinging from the trade war he's launched, particularly those in California's Central Valley, who have built their livelihoods on exports to Mexico, China and other markets.

President Trump's tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China have prompted retaliatory actions, making it harder for U.S. farmers to export their products, depressing prices and adding to a glut of products such as cheese. The United States has nearly 1.4 billion pounds of cheese in cold storage, the highest amount since record-keeping began in 1917.

Even before the tariffs, some dairies were hurting, with their numbers in California dropping from 1,563 to 1,392 between 2012 and 2016, according to the California Department of Food and Agriculture.

"A lot of farms have been hanging on by a thread in California, hoping for a price increase," said Annie AcMoody, director of economic analysis for Western United Dairymen, a trade association in Modesto, Calif. The impact of the new tariffs and depressed markets, she added, "will certainly send some more dairies out of business."

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California's milk farmers are not going down without a fight. Last month, four Central Valley dairy organizations — DairyAmerica Inc. of Fresno, Hilmar Cheese of Hilmar, California Dairies of Visalia and Western United Dairymen — joined scores of others nationwide in urging Trump to suspend tariffs on Mexican aluminum and steel, which prompted Mexico to retaliate against U.S. exports, including dairy products.

"Our share of the Mexican market is in grave jeopardy," the dairy groups wrote to the president.

Trump, however, has shown no sign of backing off. On Friday, the United States began imposing new duties on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods, prompting Beijing to announce it would reciprocate with tariffs on a similar amount of U.S. goods, including various milk and cheese products.

Read more here: https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/article214394849.html#storylink=cpy

commie said...

Of course, he hasn't made that pick yet. I shutter to even consider sending my own children to college these days

Probably can't get in and certainly cannot afford it......

Anonymous said...

My early selection hadn't made it to the final list." Roger wrong again

Your fun to bet against.

Anonymous said...

Oh the Humanity"

It sure is fun watching HB attempt to talk about Economics.
Ie. "largest deficit as a percentage of the GDA."

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by the author.