All comes down to Collins
Flake - confirmed yes
Manchin - tentative yes
Murkowski - confirmed no
The Murkowski no comes as sort of a shocker. She calls Kavanaugh a good judge and a good man, but basically is throwing him to the wolves based on the "timing" of his nomination. Some day Murkowski will wake up and realize that she made a hiring determination based on mob rule rather than how she viewed Kavanaugh and his qualifications.
Manchin is said to be where he has been for some time. Strongly leaning towards "yes" unless something new comes along. That something new isn't going to have anything to do with Kavanaugh, however. That something new would likely be the defection of Collins in addition to the defection of Murkowski.
But does Murkowski being a "no" signal that Collins is also going in that same direction? Certainly it would seem odd to vote yes on Cloture just to be able to give a speech a few hours later that all but kills the nomination. That would take a tremendous amount of ego and belief in your own self worth to demand that sort of attention for what you have to say.
But it would be what it would be. If Collins is a "no" on the final vote, then I don't see how Manchin casts the deciding vote in favor of Kavanaugh. His tentative yes becomes a real quick no, and his reelection chances will suffer demonstratively because of it. It would have been one thing for Manchin to have been a "no" all along. But to have been a tentative "yes" - only to change his mind based entirely on politics would likely not sit well with much of anyone. His appeal in West Virginia is entirely about crossover voters who believe he works on the behalf of West Virginians over the Democratic Party. That appeal would take a bid fat direct hit if he made that sort of bitch move on his voters.
If Kavanaugh is voted down, then I would offer that the Democrats have literally no chance to retake the Senate and their blue wave could dissolve into a ripple.. conservatives would be pissed.
48 comments:
Mukowski is toast. Collins could be.
Murkowski is in her 60s.
She could be retiring.
Either way, she is probably retired.
CONGRATULATIONS TO ALL MISOGYNISTS in the GOP!!!....Be proud another victory for old white men who are dying off!!!!
I have to disagree with your opinion. "
If Kavanaugh is voted down, then I would offer that the Democrats have literally no chance to retake the Senate and their blue wave could dissolve into a ripple.. conservatives would be pissed."
The 24/7 news cycle and that this President will have something happen between now and November 6th. I don't think that anger will motivate enough angry white men to turn out in sufficient numbers to balance the enthusiasm among Democrats and Independent women who will be thrilled to have prevented a sexual predator from a seat on the Supreme Court.
Positism is usually a stronger motive than anger.
I still think that he will be confirmed so I'm hoping that my record in political projections continues.
The Grand Old Predators
I think the red state Democrats were toast already. This vote will put the nail in their coffin.
One of the primary reasons women don't come forward to report sexual harassment or assault is SHAME! ðŸ˜
Roger -
This is about Republican enthusiasm. Not about fucking Trump.
Nothing Trump does between now and the election would ever dampened the new found enthusiasm from the Right because of Kavanaugh. If he goes down, it will turn into fucking rage.
Up until this... I hadn't intended to even vote. Didn't care. One of those conservatives who were simply unenthused. Now wild horses could not drag me away from the polling station come November. I will be there, with bells on.
because of Kavanaugh.
It's rather ironic that the new face of the Democrat party is a sleazy porn star lawyer.
Positism is usually a stronger motive than anger.
then why are all the protesters motivated by anger?
One of the primary reasons women don't come forward to report sexual harassment or assault is SHAME!
I agree Roger...
When women come out with obvious lies for political reasons (certainly Julie Swetnick qualifies by all standards) or unfounded allegations 35-36 years later that appear to be completely about politics...
... then it dampens the ability for other women that have legitimate allegations to come forward.
Murkowsky votes what numerous people know. Kavanaugh should never be on the Supreme Court.
On the flip side, I guess if Collins and Murkowski were on the same page, they would be doing the same thing.
__________________
Collins plans to speak long and hard about why she votes as she will in the final vote. I'd say that does not bode well for the hopes of the fanatic fringe of the GOP -- which we see Ch has now joined.
Flake is a Yes
Blogger Roger Amick said...
One of the primary reasons women don't come forward to report sexual harassment or assault is SHAME!
really.
help me understand what motivates liars to come forward with FALSE accusations.
higher education has seen an epidemic of false accusations for years now. many male lives have been ruined because some broad woke up pissed off 6+ months after the fact and decided her ex needed to pay and pay dearly.
duke lacrosse, UVA's "haven monahan," mattress girl at columbia university... the list goes on and on.
universities are FINALLY coming around to the idea that these things need to be adjudicated via law enforcement and our justice system instead of university kangaroo courts.
there's a shit ton of blame to go around on this topic, and what doesn't help is to blindly believe the woman every fucking time.
stop believing the woman. start believing the evidence.
no one, male or female, has the right to destroy another human being based on non-verifiable hearsay.
It may not. But if Collins and Mukowski were no votes anyway, why drag it out an extra week?
Mukowski might be retiring but her daughter wants a career in politics. It probably not be as a Republican.
Flake is a Yes
on cloture.
BFD.
let's see what the gutless prick does when it counts.
and thank goodness mcstain is in the fucking ground.
Mukowski has a chance to be a hero on the level of Margaret Chase Smith who spoke out against Joe McCarthy and his anti Communist rhetoric that was divding the country.
We should wish that the true American hero John McCain was still alive and be the other vote to confirm the American dream by voting against the sexual predator.
I strongly suspect that you have a history of sexual abuse given your comments on the subject and the blog for years.
Flake said yes unless something happens before the vote.
That's why I said before.
If Collins turns then Manchin will follow suite.
Then Trump will nominate Amy Coney Barret and hope for s Senate GOP wave that would make Collins and Murkowski irrelevent.
For Democrats that would be winning the battle and losing the war.
Roger Amick said...
I strongly suspect that you have a history of sexual abuse given your comments on the subject and the blog for years.
Is this the Roger Amick who used to get ripping drunk and raped me in a rage? It was 30 or 40 years ago but I was so traumatized I just got up the courage to speak up. I have no witnesses, corroboration, or evidence but I do have a gofundme for $800,000. And I will use this precedent to sue him for the rest of my lifetime earnings I lost. He should be in jail and not on the streets. Can anyone verify he used to drink?
Mukowski has a chance to be a hero on the level of Margaret Chase Smith who spoke out against Joe McCarthy and his anti Communist rhetoric that was divding the country.
This has to be the stupidest statement you ever wrote. In your simile, Mukowski is actually letting Joe McCarthy win.
you're the one with the long history of alcohol abuse alky, not me. and as you would have us believe, sexual assault and alcohol abuse go together like peas and carrots.
so methinks you're a rapist, alky rapist.
Blogger Roger Amick said...
Mukowski has a chance to be a hero on the level of Margaret Chase Smith who spoke out against Joe McCarthy and his anti Communist rhetoric that was divding the country.
how can one be against mccarthy tactics and FOR mccarthy tactics at the exact same time, alky?
cs is right - what you wrote is stupid on steroids.
Feinstein opposes because of his temperament??
After all of the accusations and slander, she votes no because he had the gall to defend himself.
Just when I think NY senators are the worst, I can always count on can or mn to make me think again.
oh al-kee!!!
Laura Ingraham
✔
@IngrahamAngle
WOMEN’s RAGE: Marist Poll: Generic Ballot among Suburban Women: Dems have lost 21 pts of their lead on Repubs during weeks of Kavanaugh confirmation.
7:44 AM - Oct 5, 2018
15.8K
5,415 people are talking about this
you were saying about how women were polling alky?
Feinstein opposes because of his temperament??
it's like shooting or stabbing someone and being surprised they're bleeding.
I don't use a walker and I don't use opiates.
You all want a sexual predator on the Supreme Court.
You are those on drugs. Probably beer beer beer beer beer beer beer beer beer beer beer beer beer beer beer
You all want a sexual predator on the Supreme Court.
Whatever Rog.
We had an "actual" confirmed sexual predator as President, and you never said boo!
The reality here Roger is that I don't believe for one second that you believe your own nonsense. You don't believe Christine Ford anymore than you believe the gang rape stories by the Porn Star Attorney client.
You are just playing the party line... not thinking, much less thinking for yourself.
What a pathetic and complete asshole you are Roger.
Roger -
You still haven't given me an answer to my earlier question.
Why do you believe Christine Ford told her therapist in 2012 that the alleged assault took place in the mid 80's while she was in her late teens and affected her college school work..
and then in 2018 told everyone that it happened in 1982 when she was 15?
huffpost:
Lisa Murkowski declares Brett Kavanaugh 'not right' for Supreme Court
READ THE ENTIRE ARTICLE AND YOU WILL SEE THAT MURKOWSKI IS NOT "TOAST" AS COMMENSA SAID
WASHINGTON ― Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) says she will oppose Brett Kavanaugh, President Donald Trump’s nominee to the Supreme Court.
“I believe Brett Kavanaugh is a good man,” Murkowski told reporters on Friday after voting against bringing his nomination to a final vote. “In my view, he’s not the right man for the court at this time.”
Murkowski, a key GOP moderate, said she did not come to a decision until walking onto the Senate floor on Friday. The long-awaited announcement comes as a relief to Democrats and women’s groups who view the appellate court judge as a serious threat to the Affordable Care Act and reproductive rights, which Murkowski supports. Her decision probably also had something to do with loud opposition to Kavanaugh from Alaska Natives, who were crucial to Murkowski’s re-election in 2010....................
Murkowski, like fellow Republican centrist Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, supports abortion rights. Democrats and progressives groups hoped to sway her vote with an intense monthslong lobbying campaign, arguing that Kavanaugh would roll back abortion rights for millions of women in America. They had some reason to be optimistic: Both GOP senators bucked Trump when they helped vote down last year’s effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act.
But Murkowski stayed quiet on the matter, even after Democrats released an email Kavanaugh wrote in 2003 as a White House official for George W. Bush in which he seemed to question whether Roe v. Wade ― the 1973 decision that legalized abortion nationwide ― was “settled law.”
While both GOP senators faced pressure to reject Kavanaugh based on his views on abortion rights, Murkowski was also urged to reject the nomination by advocates for Alaska Natives who had concerns with the judge’s record on climate change, voting rights and fishing rights. Alaska Native rights groups were particularly concerned about how the conservative judge would vote on a case they fear could destroy the way of life for tribal communities who rely on subsistence fishing in protected federal waters.
Alaskan tribal representatives, including leaders of the Hughes Tribal Council, the Ruby Tribal Council, the Tanana Tribal Council and the Native Village of Venetie Tribal Government, spoke out against Kavanaugh’s nomination.
Murkowski got even more reason to oppose Kavanaugh last month when Alaska Gov. Bill Walker (I) and Lt. Gov. Byron Mallott (D) came out against the nomination, voicing concern about the judge potentially voting to strike down the Affordable Care Act’s Medicaid expansion and its protections for patients who have pre-existing conditions.
Murkowski, 61, isn’t up for re-election until 2022 ― a timeline that surely gave her some breathing room on Kavanaugh’s nomination. She owes little to the GOP establishment, having mounted a successful write-in campaign in 2010 with the help of tribal communities and Alaska independents.
“None of this has been fair,” Murkowski told reporters on Friday about the Kavanaugh confirmation process.
BREAKING: Republican Senator Murkowski tells reporters she has not made up her mind on Kavanaugh confirmation vote
Effeminate Alky.
Lol, Senator Mulcowski .
BREAKING: Republican Senator Murkowski tells reporters she has not made up her mind on Kavanaugh confirmation vote
She's just fucking with the media. She's a no vote.
good job, rog...
you dumb fucks got this ball rolling with no consideration of how it ends or the casualties that accumulate in the meantime.
A website allegedly run by University of Washington students allows individuals to publicly accuse people of sexual assault with no evidence.
The website, titled “Make them scared UW,” was first registered in November of last year but reportedly launched in late September of this year by University of Washington students, the Daily UW campus newspaper reports.
It appears that the list of accused rapists and sexual assault perpetrators has grown substantially on the site in recent weeks in the wake of the rape claims made against U.S. Supreme Court justice nominee Brett Kavanaugh.
Meanwhile, one student named on “Make them scared UW” told The College Fix that the allegation is false, that the University of Washington has dismissed the allegations against him as completely uncorroborated and cleared him of any wrongdoing.
Thus far, every person named on the list is male, and their names include the school they attend. Many listed on the site appear to be University of Washington students, but as apparent word of this site has spread, students from many other colleges are now listed, too.
The site does not employ any mechanisms to verify the truth of any accusations it publishes, and the website’s moderators attempt to protect themselves from liability or criticism by stating atop the list of the accused: “Please remember, just because a name is on this list does not mean the individual is guilty. All it means is that we have received an accusation against them.”
https://www.thecollegefix.com/make-them-scared-website-associated-with-university-allows-for-anonymous-sex-assault-accusations/
Claiming most Americans are racist gives Democrats political power over blacks. Of no concern to them is the harm this lie has inflicted on blacks’ happiness and wellbeing. Democrats have sewn up the black vote for the past 50 years and delivered nothing but destruction of their men, their families, and their chances at economic success.
Now it is women’s turn for the Democrats’ dysfunctional brand of “protection.”
https://www.amgreatness.com/2018/10/04/women-should-fear-democrat-champions/
Well the University of Washington has open themselves up to a whole bunch of defamation suits.
Adrian Gray
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Qunnipiac: Generic Ballot among white women
Jul 22: D+14
Sep 9: D+5
Sep 30: D+1
1:25 PM - 4 Oct 2018
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https://twitter.com/adrian_gray/status/1047945716646252551
Conservative Women Will Make Democrats Pay For Kavanaugh In November
Democrats assumed Republican women would play into their identity politics instead of seeking truth, and that assumption is blowing up in their faces.
what this really boils down to:
That’s what Americans need to understand about Supreme Court politics right now. The Left has, for more than a generation, been able to generally count on the federal courts as a backstop for their policies when the democratic process yields something other than what they want. Because the Left generally cares less about procedure than it does about outcomes, progressives have not been very much worried about what the Constitution actually says (or how their reliance on judicial activism has undermined both democracy and the rule of law) so long as they get what they want.
The Left is willing to go to extraordinary lengths to defend its ill-gotten gains. Robert Bork knew that. Clarence Thomas knows. Brett Kavanaugh knows, too — which, if he is confirmed, just might making him a very amusing justice, and a very good one.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/abortion-rights-supreme-court/
Did Sen. Susan Collins talk yet?
Did you libs get from her you wanted?
Where is your source of the information you have?
Besides that, traumatic stress can affect memories. You are convinced that she was lying during the highly emotional statement. Again you seem to believe the deep state conspiracy.
Do you believe that she was compensated by Soros or Clinton?
Roger
I am asking a simple question as to why her story changes so much. What she told her therapist WAS different than what she claimed under oath. What she claimed under oath was different than what she claimed during her polygraph test.
If you suggest that PTSD affects your memory so much that your age changes by 3-4 years and the amount of people at the Party is fluid... but what she "can" remember is pretty much two things.
That "he did it" and that "she only one beer". It all appears fairly convenient.
Absent of any corroboration or evidence of any sort, she is not credible enough for me.
As far as compensation? She has a go fund me account that will last her some time. She is being represented by two high profile Democratic Attorneys and a high level Obama/Clinton political strategist.
Perhaps had she not hired a slew of political hacks as her legal team, I might feel more inclined to believe she didn't have political motives.
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