Florida: This is one of those two polling stories. One one hand you have Quinnipiac, Survey USA, Saint Leo, Gravis, and Sienna/NYT who are showing Nelson with a lead between four and nine points. On the flip side you have YouGov, Strategic Research, St Petes, Florida Atlantic, Schroth that all show the race with Governor Scott up by a little, or the race effectively tied.
Sometimes you can simply take an average and be done with it. In that case, Nelson appears to have a lead in the two to three point area with a polling average of right around 47% (which is right about where an incumbent would want to be to feel really save). But just as likely (in my experience) is that one of these subsets or the other is actually right and the other is wrong. This would mean that Nelson is either up by fiver or six points, or that the race is a toss up, with Scott having a slight advantage.
Of course, That provides of with three different possible scenarios to choose from. Given the fact that Nelson holds a sizable advantage in one scenario, a smallish advantage in another, and a disadvantage in the third, I would still offer that he remains a favorite. Probably not the prohibited 72% favorite that Silver makes him out to be, but a favorite non-the-less.
Indiana: In Indiana, the GOP challenger Mike Braun seems to be gaining momentum. He has led in the three most recent polls. He is leading by three in the YouGov poll, by four with Mason Strategies, and by four in the most recent American Viewpoint poll. Prior to those three polls, you had Gravis, Survey USA, and Vox Populi all showing the Incumbent Joe Donnelly in the lead by four, one, and ten respectively. A couple of other polls by American Viewpoint in early October point showed Braun with a four point lead (seems to be consistent), with FOX and Ipsos showing Sept polls with Donnelly holding two point leads.
Again, Nate Silver shows the Democrat Donnelly as a prohibited favorite, while RCP averages now shows Braun with his first polling average lead. I understand that Donnelly had led more polls, but even in polls where Donnelly is leading (with only one exception) he is polling in the mid forties. In fact, only two polls (Vox Populi and the old Ipsos poll) shows him over 44% at all. So as a blue incumbent in a red state, who is polling under 44% on average, every bit of conventional wisdom suggests that Donnelly is in more than a bit of trouble.
Nevada: This was a race where at one time the Democrats thought this was a safe pickup. But then Ipsos (which has not been kind to Republicans) gave Heller a six point lead, Emerson gave him a seven point lead, and three other polls gave him a lead. Only PPP and Vox (both left leaning pollsters) has recent polling showing the challenger Jackie Rosen a lead, and both of those were smallish two point leads. If you look at all of the October polling, Heller is polling at 47.4%. While this is not comfortable for an incumbent, it's a smidgen better than Nelson is at in the purple state Florida. So if Nelson is considered the favorite as an incumbent in his purple state, then it would follow that Heller is the favorite as well in his.
Oddly, even Nate Silver agrees with this one, making Heller about a three to two favorite (60%). Considering Silver has never been wrong when he picks a Republican, I might feel pretty good if I was Dean Heller.
35 comments:
Nelson has been outspending Scott on negative ads and Scott has suspended his campaign schedule to concentrate on Hurricane recovery.
It's a mix bag. Scott get high marks on Hurricane recovery but I don't think he's effectively answering the negative ads against him. Especially the big lies the Democrats are spreading about healthcare.
On the flip side however, Nelson's negative ads are featuring angry actors leveling personal attacks against Scott. Nor sure how that plays with the typical Florida voter.
Gillum's FBI problem is catching up with him as is DeSantis..
Pittsburgh Jewish leaders tell Trump to stay away unless he denounces white nationalism
President Trump is not welcome to visit Pittsburgh unless he denounces white nationalism and “stops targeting and endangering all minorities,” a group of the city’s Jewish leaders said Sunday.
“For the past three years your words and your policies have emboldened a growing white nationalist movement,” said a letter signed by 11 Jewish leaders on the website of Bend the Arc, a progressive Jewish organization.
“You yourself called the murderer evil, but yesterday’s violence is the direct culmination of your influence,” the letter said.
Trump Defiant About His Inflammatory Rhetoric
“President Trump and his Republican allies remained defiant Sunday amid allegations from critics that Trump’s incendiary attacks on political rivals and racially charged rhetoric on the campaign trail bear some culpability for the climate surrounding a spate of violence in the United States,” the Washington Post reports.
“Trump, who has faced calls to tone down his public statements, signaled that he would do no such thing — berating billionaire liberal activist Tom Steyer, a target of a mail bomb sent by a Trump supporter, as a ‘crazed & stumbling lunatic’ on Twitter, after Steyer said on CNN that Trump and the Republican Party have created an atmosphere of ‘political violence.’”
___________________________
And now Jewish leaders in Pittsburgh are saying it too.
NBC News
White nationalist accused of violence at political rallies surrenders to FBI
55 mins ago
LOS ANGELES — A fourth white nationalist wanted in connection with engaging in activity promoting violence and civil disobedience at political rallies in California surrendered Sunday to the FBI, according to law enforcement sources.
Aaron Matthew Eason, 38, is expected to make his first appearance Monday in federal court, officials told NBC News.
He and three other members of the white nationalist group Rise Above Movement, which has been designated as a hate group by the Southern Poverty Law Center, allegedly traveled to three California cities last year with the intention to incite violence at political rallies, according to a federal indictment unsealed last week.
Robert Boman, Tyler Laube, and Robert Paul Rundo were arrested earlier this month by the FBI, and authorities had been searching for Eason,
The men used the internet to coordinate "combat training," travel and attendance at political rallies in Berkeley, Huntington Beach and San Bernardino last year, according to the indictment. They also allegedly planned to celebrate their violence in an effort to recruit more members.
"Every American has a right to peacefully organize, march and protest in support of their beliefs — but no one has the right to violently assault their political opponents," U.S. Attorney Nick Hanna said earlier this month in a statement.
Several members of the Rise Above Movement, or RAM, attended a "Make America Great Again" rally in Huntington Beach last March, holding signs that read "Da Goyim Know," an anti-Semitic phrase. Rally attendees attacked journalists and began fights with counter protesters.
Trump Says He Probably Won’t Win Nobel Peace Prize
President Trump told supporters that he probably wouldn’t win the Nobel Peace Prize, the HuffPost reports.
Said Trump: “They probably will never give it to me, even what I’m doing in Korea and Idlib province and all of these places. They probably will never give it to me. You know why? Because they don’t want to.”
________________________
For once he's right. They don't want to because he doesn't deserve it.
$1 FOR 3 MONTHS
Sale ends 11/7
Campbell Soup exec out after Soros conspiracy theory tweet
Film crew shooting cop series where Eric Garner died halts production after being attacked by angry locals
Jim Carrey torches Donald Trump yet again at L.A. gala
Navy sailor shot and killed after stopping to help motorist on California highway
Leonard: Eli Manning wants to stay a Giant, but for-sale sign hung by team means even Odell Beckham Jr. may not be safe
One of two winning $688 million Powerball tickets sold at Harlem deli
Pregnant airport worker loses home in fight to avoid fumes
MAGA bomber suspect Cesar Sayoc was banned from mother's home over his support of Trump
Fox Business pulls 'Lou Dobbs' episode after guest pushed conspiracy theory about 'Soros-occupied State department'
“For the past three years your words and your policies have emboldened a growing white nationalist movement,” said a letter signed by 11 Jewish leaders on the website of Bend the Arc, a progressive Jewish organization.
Authorities say the suspected gunman, Robert Bowers, yelled anti-Semitic slurs the rampage.Hours before the mass killing, Bowers ranted online against HIAS, a Jewish immigration advocacy organization.
“HIAS likes to bring invaders in that kill our people. I can’t sit by and watch my people get slaughtered. Screw your optics, I’m going in,” he posted on Gab, a social network site.
The letter on Bend the Arc’s site noted that Bowers’ anti-HIAS post came “at the end of a week in which (Trump) spread lies and sowed fear about migrant families in Central America.
“He killed Jews in order to undermine the efforts of all those who find shared humanity with immigrants and refugees,” the online letter added.
They pointed out that the Torah states each person is made in b’tzelem Elohim, in the image of God.
“This means all of us,” the group said. “In our neighbors, Americans, and people worldwide who have reached out to give our community strength, there we find the image of God. “
Didn't mean to post the first part of that. The best part is the end.
The best part is never reading your span. Posted on three threads .
Blue wave is MIA.
Roger wrong again.
Dodgers gone in a whimper
4 losses
1 win
Think a blue wave is coming in the midterm election that will sweep out Republicans and usher in a Democratically-controlled Congress?
Don't bet on it, gamblers on at least one online betting site are saying.
The odds on MyBookie favor Republicans maintaining hold of their majority, even as political forecaster Nate Silver says there is an 84.9 percent chance of a Democratic victory.
Smart money is on Republicans keeping control of House, betting site odds say
As of Sunday, the odds of the GOP keeping the House are at -140. That means you would need to bet $140 on the Republicans to win $100 if they stay in the majority. The Democrats are at +110, meaning a $100 bet would win you $110 if the Democrats manage to wrest control of the House.
The site also has the Republicans favored to hold the White House in the 2020 presidential election. The GOP is at -170 in that race, compared to +130 for the Democrats.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2018/10/28/midterm-elections-betting-odds/1800052002/
you're welcome "pastor"
ROFLMFAO !!!
North Dakota Senate race looks like the Republican candidate is ahead by a substantial margin.
If money talks with just two weeks to go given the tarrifs imposed on soybeans even if the President has been shoveling money into the market, ...
Oct. 27, 2018
WASHINGTON — After Senator Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota announced that she would not vote to confirm Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, sympathetic voters went to work to show their support for the embattled red-state Democrat, writing letters of thanks and posting their appreciation on social media.
Others found a more practical way to demonstrate their gratitude: cold, hard cash. In 17 days, Ms. Heitkamp raised an astonishing $12.5 million, according to campaign finance filings; the bulk of that was after she announced her vote.
“This stands in its own class,” said Michael Beckel, a campaign finance expert at Issue One, a nonpartisan group that seeks to reduce the influence of money in politics.
The senator is struggling in her fight for re-election against a Republican challenger, Representative Kevin Cramer, who has opened a clear lead in recent polls. Republicans see the race as a key opportunity to widen their majority in the Senate.
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The fund-raising bonanza could help — if she could even spend it by Nov. 6 in a low-cost media market like North Dakota. Nearly all of Ms. Heitkamp’s donations came through ActBlue, a fund-raising platform that has helped Democratic candidates for the House and Senate raise more than half a billion dollars this cycle.
Before Ms. Heitkamp’s announcement, ActBlue was processing approximately $80,000 in donations for her every day. But when she announced on Oct. 4 that she would vote against Justice Kavanaugh’s confirmation, donations poured in, reaching $1.6 million on that day, and nearly $2 million the next. By Oct. 17, when the pre-election filing period closed, Ms. Heitkamp had raised more than $12 million in 14 days, of which more than $7 million came from donors giving under $200.
Don't be fooled by James Spam. Bend of Arc is a far left organization that represents a tine minority of Jews.
It does not as James says speak for the Jewish community.
He is not welcome here’: Thousands support Pittsburgh Jewish leaders calling on Trump to ‘denounce white nationalism’
October 29 at 4:07 AM
More than 16,000 people have signed an open letter to President Trump from the leaders of a Pittsburgh-based Jewish group who say the president will not be welcome in the city unless he denounces white nationalism and stops “targeting” minorities after a mass shooting Saturday at a local synagogue left 11 dead.
The letter, which was published and shared on Sunday, was written by 11 members of the Pittsburgh affiliate of Bend the Arc, a national organization for progressive Jews focused on social justice, following what is being called the deadliest attack on Jews in U.S. history. The shooting at Tree of Life synagogue also left several people injured, including law enforcement. As of early Monday morning, the letter had 16,533 signatures.
“For the past three years your words and your policies have emboldened a growing white nationalist movement,” the Jewish leaders wrote. “You yourself called the murderer evil, but yesterday’s violence is the direct culmination of your influence."
The letter continued: “Our Jewish community is not the only group you have targeted. You have also deliberately undermined the safety of people of color, Muslims, LGBTQ people, and people with disabilities. Yesterday’s massacre is not the first act of terror you incited against a minority group in our country.”
The White House did not respond to multiple requests for comment late Sunday night.
Bend of Arc is a far left organization that represents a tine minority of Jews.
it's a george soros front group. nazi georgie's son alex chairs the board.
https://www.bendthearc.us/team
Blogger Roger Amick said...
North Dakota Senate race looks like the Republican candidate is ahead by a substantial margin.
whatever the fuck would we do without these copy/paste pearls of wisdom, captain obvious???
Roger wrong again.
Dodgers gone in a whimper
4 losses
1 win
Oh Roger how did Denver do after "touchdown Denver"???
Roger has conceded the US Senate and all hopes of removing Trump and Kavanaigh.
Roger predicted a 53 pick up in us house.
I’d like to be president,” stated Clinton."
Then she will be civil?
I’d like to be president,” stated Clinton."
"I want to be a goat fucker" stated the fraud of Kansas KD......
Blogger KD said...
I’d like to be president,” stated Clinton."
i think we all owe the left a debt of gratitude for bringing the term 'feckless cunt' into our mainstream lexicon. it just seems so fitting when used to describe hillary.
David KKK Duke gives trump a huge thumbs up for his nationalist declaration and his 99.7% white crowd in Houston ....KD bows in awe!!!!!!
He is not welcome here’: Thousands support Pittsburgh Jewish leaders calling on Trump to ‘denounce white nationalism’
You mean the thousands of morons who "signed" an on-line petition? I could get thousands of morons to sign an on-line petition banning Santa Clause and it would mean just as much.
You mean the thousands of morons who "signed" an on-line petition?
Yes you know thousands of pliable idiots like yourself....I am impressed with your honesty....LOLOLOLOL Still laughing at your expertise in science, let alone Polls.....
Don’t you dare insult me as a rabbi by blaming your perceived political enemies for some dirtbag Jew-hater.
This President could not be a better friend of Jewish concerns and causes. He supports Israel and moved America’s Israel embassy to Jerusalem. His daughter and son-in-law are Orthodox Jews, and he treats them lovingly and respectfully, as he does their Orthodox Jewish children, his grandchildren. He ended Obama’s vicious anti-Israel animus, and he has supported Israel strongly in the United Nations. No wonder that Jews throughout the world love him, support him. In Israel, among Israeli Jews, he is wildly popular with a 67% approval rating. They hated Obama — and for great reason. In England, the Jews have gone conservative, while the British Labour Party has chosen an outright anti-Semite, Jeremy Corbyn, as their leader. Jews from the former Soviet Union are the most conservative of people. As are Orthodox Jews in America. Jews throughout the world — except for those in America influenced by Hollywood and the Left Media — have become increasingly and intensively conservative. And we enthusiastically support President Trump. President Trump has condemned anti-Semitism as forthrightly as has any President in American history. When the people were murdered at the Pittsburgh temple, he ordered all American flags to be flown at half-staff for three days. Compare that to Obama who responded to Arab terrorists murdering Jews in a kosher-food store in France by saying blithely that they randomly had been killed at some random delicatessen.
https://spectator.org/dont-insult-me-as-a-rabbi-by-blaming-your-political-enemies-for-some-dirtbag-jew-hater/
This President could not be a better friend of Jewish concerns and causes
Only problem rectum breath....his rhetoric incites low IQ idiots like you into action.....You can post all the denials you want and will, but the fact remains this showman assclown embraces bigotry like yours with his agenda....the only good thing right now is that the only group covering that dangerous caravan is faux and fortunately, only idiots watch that...
Trump's own daughter is Jewish.
Meanwhile democrats embrace Jew hating Farrakhan.
We know who is the friend and who is not.
James stands with Louis Farrakhan.
LOL
You are as absolute a liar as Trump.
I have never once stood with Farrakhan.
Amber AtheyVerified account @amber_athey
.@CNN asks Tree of Life Rabbi Jeffrey Myers if @realDonaldTrump is welcome at his synagogue after Saturday's shooting.
Myers: "The President of the United States is always welcome. I am a citizen, he is my president. He is always welcome.”
CNN's trying to get a negative comment and FAKE NEWS fails
Liberals all up in arms after FAKE NEWS NYT decides they better let this go before the election, Beto wasn't going to win anyway. BETO is a unscrupulous one percenter (shocked face), who would have thought...
EL PASO — At a special City Council meeting in 2006, a billionaire real estate investor unveiled his vision for redeveloping downtown El Paso. To replace tenements and boarded-up buildings, he proposed restaurants, shops and an arts walk rivaling San Antonio’s River Walk.
Representative Beto O’Rourke, one of hundreds attending, wasn’t exactly a disinterested party.
Not only had he married the investor’s daughter, but as a member of City Council he represented the targeted area, including a historic Mexican-American neighborhood.
Calling downtown “one piece of El Paso that was missing on the road back to greatness,” Mr. O’Rourke, now the Democratic candidate for Senate in Texas, voted to take the first step forward with the plan.
Over the next two years, Mr. O’Rourke would defend the plan before angry barrio residents and vote to advance it. At other times, he would abstain. Business owners who opposed the plan accused Mr. O’Rourke of a conflict, citing the involvement of his father-in-law, the billionaire developer William D. Sanders.
Twelve years later, Mr. O’Rourke is championing progressive causes, attracting millions of dollars from small donors across the country and eschewing political action committee money in what he calls a grass-roots effort to unseat Ted Cruz, the Republican incumbent, in one of the most closely watched Senate races in the midterms
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/29/us/politics/beto-orourke-el-paso-texas-senate.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes
James stands with Louis Farrakhan."
Obama stands with actual bombers against actual government officials that actually died\injuried.
Obama declares there is no caravan.
EducatédHillbilly™ @RobProvince
Beto has been running for about a year and has had 2-3 fluff pieces written about him daily and just now for the first time it’s reported he’s a billionaire.
Good job reporting Mr & Mrs News Media.
Makes his money like Kerry
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