Nevada Republican Incumbent Dean Heller has a small lead in the latest NBC/Marist Poll, while GOP challenger Martha McSally has opened up a six point lead in the latest ABC/Predictive Insights poll in the state of Arizona.
Both of these are relevant, since these are the two seats that the Democrats were sort of counting on as pickups. They are still hoping for others, but Cruz has opened up a little bit of breathing room in Texas, and in Tennessee the Republican Blackburn is up middle to upper digits in every poll taken in October.
Meanwhile Heitkamp is in big trouble in North Dakota, McCaskill is still slightly down in Missouri, and Tester (Montana), Donnelly(Indiana) and Nelson (Florida) are all in dog fights. None of them lead by more than three points in the current RCP average.
In theory, the range right now, is anything from a two seat pick up for the Democrats in their best realistic case scenario and a five seat pick up if everything goes just right for the GOP. If I was a betting man right now, I believe that we will be within a seat of where we were. The GOP will have between 52 and 50 seats, while the Democrats will have between 50 and 48.
49 comments:
Kavanaugh Effect: GOP Fundraising Up 500 Percent in Past Few Weeks
the NYT has blackburn up by 18 points?
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-tnsen-2.html
Will the lead disappear because of the stock markets crash?
Stocks sank on Wednesday as a steep decline in tech shares and worries of rapidly rising rates sent Wall Street on pace for its worst day in months.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 700 points lower as Intel and Microsoft fell more than 2.5 percent each. The Nasdaq Composite plummeted 3.5 percent.
The S&P 500 dropped 2.8 percent, with the tech sector underperforming. The broad index was also headed for a five-day losing streak — which would be its longest since late 2016 — and fell below its 50-day moving average, a widely followed technical level.
you always intentionally leave out the most important part, alky:
Worries about a sharp rise in interest rates also pressured equities. The 10-year Treasury note yield traded around 3.23 percent a day after hitting its highest level since 2011. The two-year yield, meanwhile, reached its highest mark since 2008. The speedy rise in yields has sent worries through Wall Street that higher borrowing costs will slow down the economy.
"Portfolio managers tend to move to the sidelines in a skittish tape out of fear of suffering from a quick and sharp pullback," said Jeremy Klein, chief market strategist at FBN Securities.
"The fundamental environment, though, remains supportive of share appreciation. I contend that the concerns of rising interest rates are largely overblown. Specifically, I do not anticipate much more of an increase in longer dated Treasury yields," he said.
Rates rose on Wednesday after the U.S. government released data showing a rebound in producer prices last month. The producer price index rose 0.2 percent in September and is up 2.8 percent on a year-over-year basis. The index is a widely followed metric of inflation.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/10/us-markets-bond-yields-and-data-in-focus.html
the quickest way to slow down a roaring economy is to raise interest rates. always has been and always will be.
Wednesday, October 10, 2018
Republicans are madder about the Kavanaugh controversy than Democrats are and more determined to vote in the upcoming elections because of it.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 54% of all Likely U.S. Voters say they are more likely to vote in the upcoming midterm elections because of the controversy surrounding President Trump’s U.S. Supreme Court nominee. Only nine percent (9%) say they are less likely to vote. Thirty-four percent (34%) say the controversy will have no impact on their vote. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Sixty-two percent (62%) of Republicans are more likely to vote because of the Kavanaugh controversy, compared to 54% of Democrats and 46% of voters not affiliated with either major political party.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/october_2018/gop_voters_madder_more_likely_to_vote_because_of_kavanaugh
There is a reason the lost years interest rates set by the Federal Reserve was at "zerO".
"Stock market Crash?"
Wow, alky never ever gets old, stupid in everything financial and Economics.
Since Trump was elected the Federal Reserve has put both feet on the brake with 7 rate hikes and the promise of more.
Michael Avenatti Holds Press Conference Announcing He Just Won Free IPad By Being Website's 1,000,000th Visitor
https://babylonbee.com/news/michael-avenatti-holds-press-conference-to-announce-he-just-won-free-ipad-by-being-websites-1000000th-visitor
LAYOFFS
Ford Prepares for Mass Layoffs After Losing $1 Billion to Trump's Trade Tariffs, Report Says
Jerome Powell: Tariffs Could Be Bad For the U.S. Economy
“If widespread tariffs remain in place for a long time, that’s going to be bad for the U.S. economy,” said Powell.
Play VideoYOU MIGHT LIKE
TRUMP’S TARIFFS ARE GIVING THE TECH INDUSTRY HEADACHES
By KEVIN KELLEHER 8:26 PM EDT
Ford is having a bad year in 2018. Its stock is down 29%, and the tariffs imposed by President Trump have reportedly cost the company $1 billion, as the company is in the midst of a reorganization. Now, the company is announcing layoffs.
Jim Hackett, Ford’s CEO, is working to engineer a $25.5 billion restructuring of the automaker, hoping to cut costs and remain competitive, the Wall Street Journal reports. But auto sales are down, and one reason is the trade tariffs that Trump has imposed on metals and other goods. According to Bloomberg, Hackett has said they have already cost the company $1 billion in profit and could do “more damage” if the disputes aren’t resolved quickly.
Ford, the No. 2 U.S. automaker by sales, is making aggressive job cuts as part of that reorganization, NBC News reported. While the company hasn’t said how many jobs will be lost, a report from Morgan Stanley estimates “a global headcount reduction of approximately 12 percent,” or 24,000 of Ford’s 202,000 workers worldwide.”
While reports have indicated that the job cuts are likely to come early next year, The Kansas City Star reported Tuesday that Ford has temporarily halted production of transit vans in Claycomo, Mo. The move is intended to build up Ford’s inventories of the vans, but it will leave 2,000 workers idle between Oct. 22 and Nov. 4.
Despite news of the layoffs, Ford’s stock closed down 3.4% Tuesday.
At a time when automakers are scrambling to prepare for self-driving cars, Ford is also struggling to keep pace with the rest of the industry. September was a bad month for U.S. auto sales—with aggregate sales down 7%—but Ford’s drop off was even more severe. Ford said its sales of its vehicles declined 11.2% last month, with sales of its best-selling F-Series pickup trucks down 9%.
Ford has not responded to Fortune’s request for comment.
Let us all laugh at Alky.
Ok that was fun.
Facts
Over the last 15 years US Auto Sales Average 15.57 million.
Get ready alky here comes my boot into your teeth.
Sept. 2018 US Auto Sales 17.44 million.
Cite the official news paper of the Motor City. The Detroit News.
Click Bait and dumb ads alky took it.
"FORD, Massive Layoffs"
Fact "While the company hasn’t said how many jobs will be lost."
FBI Director Christopher Wray told the Senate on Wednesday that the White House put limits on the re-opened investigation into Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, but the law enforcement chief insisted that the process used was a typical one.
"Our supplemental update to the previous background investigation was limited in scope and that ... is consistent with the standard process for such investigations going back a long ways," Wray said under questioning by Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) at a Senate Homeland Security Committee hearing on global security threats.
"I've spoken with our background investigation specialists and they have assured me this was handled in a way consistent with their experience and the standard process," the FBI director said, later adding that the inquiry was "very specific in scope—limited in scope."
Wray confirmed that background investigations are handled differently from other FBI probes and that the scope of inquiries into judicial nominees is dictated by the White House. However, he declined to discuss any specifics about what the White House decided should or should not be examined during the brief follow-up investigation conducted following the Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on sexual assault allegations against Kavanaugh.
Democratic senators have complained that the FBI probe was unduly limited, failed to interview relevant witnesses and failed to re-interview Kavanaugh and one of his primary accusers, Christine Blasey Ford. However, the Republican senators who insisted on the renewed inquiry before voting on Kavanaugh have said they considered the effort sufficient.
Kavanaugh was confirmed by the Senate Saturday on a vote of 50-48. He was sworn in later that day and took the bench for his first round of oral arguments at the high court on Tuesday.
Asked by Harris if White House counsel Don McGahn set the limits on the investigation, Wray said he didn't know if McGahn had contact with FBI officials on the topic.
"The communication between the FBI and the White House for nominees, including judicial nominees, is through the FBI security division, background investigation specialists and the White House Office of Security," Wray said. "I can't speak to what anyone throughout the organization might have received instructions on."
During the hearing — where Wray was flanDuringked by Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen and National Counterterrorism Center acting Director Russell Travers — the FBI chief tried mightily to avoid being drawn out on other politically-heated issues surrounding the bureau. He largely succeeded.
Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) raised Trump's frequent attacks on the FBI, including his description last year of "several rotten apples" among the bureau's top leaders.
Story Continued Below
"Do you agree with the president that there are 'rotten apples' within in the bureau's senior leadership?" Hassan asked.
"Senator, I can only tell you about the FBI I see, which is people of great courage, integrity and professionalism," Wray responded. "They are extraordinary people that this committee and all Americans should be proud of."
However, later in the hearing, Senate Homeland Security Committee Chairman Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) challenged Wray about about individuals criticized in an inspector general's report into the FBI's handling of election-related investigations in 2016. Among those faulted in the report were Special Agent Peter Strzok and FBI lawyer Lisa Page, who exchanged texts sharply critical of President Donald Trump while involved an investigation into his campaign's ties to Russia, as well as former acting FBI Director Andrew McCabe.
McCabe and Strzok were fired. Page quit.
"Are you concerned about the credibility of the FBI?" Johnson asked. "What about the credibility? This is a legitimate concern. Are you concerned about that?"
"I take the credibility of the FBI, definitely, seriously," Wray replied. "I take anybody's concerns seriously. The inspector general, I agree with you, did a very thorough and professional job and I've taken his recommendations very seriously. There have been disciplinary decisions which I can't discuss in this forum, of course, that have been made."
This rocks.
Family .
"Trump Administration Opens 251,000 Acres To Hunting, FishingSPECIAL TO WESTERN OUTDOOR NEWSPublished: Sep 26, 2018
Print This ArticleEmail This Article Digg This Article
WASHINGTON, D.C. — Following direction from President Donald Trump, U.S. Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke will open more than 251,000 acres to new or expanded hunting and fishing opportunities at 30 national wildlife refuges across the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s National Wildlife Refuge System. This will now bring the number of units where the public may hunt to 377, and the number where fishing is permitted to 312.
This will open more new acres to hunting and fishing than in the past and takes steps to simplify regulations to more closely match state hunting and fishing regulations. The final rule also outlines expanded hunting and fishing opportunities at 136 national wildlife refuges. The changes will be implemented in time for the upcoming 2018-2019 hunting seasons.
Hunting, fishing and other outdoor activities contributed more than $156 billion in economic activity in communities across the United States in 2016 according to the Service’s National Survey of Fishing, Hunting and Wildlife-Associated Recreation, published every five years. More than 101 million Americans — 40 percent of the U.S. population 16 and older — pursue wildlife-related recreation — hunting, fishing and birding among others.
“Hunting and fishing are family activities that pass down from generation to generation. National wildlife refuges provide all Americans with places to hunt, fish, observe the natural world firsthand and experience the great outdoors.” said Cynthia Martinez, Chief of the National Wildlife Refuge System. “We are pleased to be able to offer hunting and fishing opportunities and other recreational activities where they are compatible with national wildlife refuge management goals.”
Morgan Stanley estimates “a global headcount reduction of approximately 12 percent,” or 24,000 of Ford’s 202,000 workers worldwide.”
While reports have indicated that the job cuts are likely to come early next year,
Morgan Stanley estimates “a global headcount reduction of approximately 12 percent,” or 24,000 of Ford’s 202,000 workers worldwide.”
While reports have indicated that the job cuts are likely to come early next year,
Trump is too busy calling the Democrats mobster while thousands of Americans are in danger by hurricane Michael
No worries, Rick Scott is on the job with Trump backing him up.
Alky ran fast from Auto Sales Story he brought here.
Trump says the Federal Reserve has 'gone crazy' by continuing to raise interest rates
Thomas Franck | @tomwfranck
Published 1 Hour Ago Updated 1 Hour Ago
CNBC.com
"I think the Fed is making a mistake. They are so tight. I think the Fed has gone crazy," the president said after walking off Air Force One in Erie, Pennsylvania.
The U.S. central bank has raised interest rates three times this year and is largely expected to hike once more before year-end.
Fears about rapidly rising rates helped cause the Dow Jones Industrial Average to drop more than 800 points Wednesday.
"Actually, it's a correction that we've been waiting for for a long time, but I really disagree with what the Fed is doing," the President added.
President Donald Trump knocked the Federal Reserve for continuing to raise interest rates despite some recent market turbulence.
"I think the Fed is making a mistake. They are so tight. I think the Fed has gone crazy," the president said after walking off Air Force One in Erie, Pennsylvania for a rally.
Fears about rapidly rising rates helped cause the Dow Jones Industrial Average to drop more than 800 points Wednesday. The S&P 500 posted its worst day since February and clinched its first five-day losing streak since 2016.
This is CNN:
CNN Panel Mocks Kanye West as Trump’s ‘Token Negro,’ Don Lemon Laughs (Video)
A CNN panel hosted by anchor Don Lemon took turns lacing into Kanye West on Tuesday evening, joking that his embrace of President Donald Trump has caused him to be tokenized. Several referred to him using the term “negro.”
“He’s an attention whore, like the president. He’s all of a sudden now the model spokesperson. He’s the token negro of the Trump administration,” said CNN contributor Tara Setmeyer.
“This is ridiculous and no one should be taking Kanye West seriously. He clearly has issues. He’s already been hospitalized,” she continued. “Not to trivialize mental health issues, [but] obviously Kanye has taken a turn in a very strange way.”
Another guest, former Congressman Bakari Sellers, also hit Kanye using much of the same language.
“Kanye West is what happens when negroes don’t read,” said Sellers. “And we have this now and now Donald Trump is going to use it and pervert and he’s going to have someone who can stand with him and take pictures.”
CNN the place for racists.
Trump is too busy calling the Democrats mobster while thousands of Americans are in danger by hurricane Michael
And Obumble went to a Vegas fund raiser during Benghazi
Jackass we’ll get through FEMA is watching how Waffle House responds
Alky three days ago Trump was talking about the Pending Hurricane. Signing Federal Emergency Orders as requested by Rick Scott,Gov. Of Florida.
24 hrs ago
"Donald Trump signs emergency declaration for 35 counties
President Donald Trump has signed a declaration of a pre-landfall emergency for Florida, setting the stage for federal agencies to mobilize into the Panhandle and north Florida and assure federal funding for preparations and recovery before Hurricane Michael arrives. Trump's"
Do try to become informed before running in breathlessly alky.
RCP Average 9/27 - 10/9 43.2 52.9 -9.7
Economist 10/7 - 10/9 43 53 -10
Rasmussen 10/7 - 10/9 49 49 Tie
Reuters 10/3 - 10/9 42 57 -15
CNN 10/4 - 10/7 43 52 -9
Gallup 10/1 - 10/7 43 53 -10
Emerson 10/1 - 10/4 43 50 -7
NPR/PBS/Marist 10/1 - 10/1 43 53 -10
IBD/TIPP 9/27 - 10/3 40 54 -14
Harvard-Harris 9/29 - 9/30 45 55 -10
Quinnipiac 9/27 - 9/30 41 53 -12
All President Trump Job Approval Polling Data
Trump is jealous.
A little over a week ago, a prominent Saudi journalist walked into the consulate general in Istanbul, intending to get paperwork that would allow him to marry his Turkish fiancée. She hasn't seen him since.
CNN journalists are enemies of the state. If he had Chris Matthews murdered you would be cheering.
CNN journalists are enemies of the state. If he had Chris Matthews murdered you would be cheering.
Chris Stevens could not be reached for comment.
HACK!!
Fox News Crushes CNN And MSNBC In Ratings, Has More Viewers Than Both Networks Combined
https://dailycaller.com/2018/10/10/fox-news-ratings-beat-cnn-msnbc/
CNN is irrelevant, it now trails Home and Garden TV. But it is tied in FAKE NEWS with NBC.
Alky, care to talk about those soaring US Auto Sales?
I know I do.
Bloomberg Live
@BloombergLive
Steve Bannon says the timing of Nikki Haley's resignation is "horrific" and that she is "incredibly politically ambitious" #bloomberginvest http://pscp.tv/w/1RDGlWlkZozKL
7:58 AM - Oct 10, 2018
"In January, the U.S. Labor Department said overall U.S. labor unionmembership rate fell to 10.7 percent in 2016, down 0.4 percentage point — the lowest level since the government started keep track in 1983. The overall number of workers in a union declined by 240,000 to 14.6 million last year.Apr 4, 2017"
Government Motors is doing better than you ever wanted.
President Donald Trump loves to brag about ratings, but he’s not getting them anymore.
As he’s ramped up his rally schedule ahead of the midterms, viewership numbers for the raucous prime-time events have been roughly similar to — sometimes dipping below — Fox News’ regular programming, and the network has recently stopped airing most evening events in full.
During three Trump rallies last week, Fox News showed clips and highlights from his speeches but stuck largely with its normal weekday prime-time programming. On Saturday, when “Fox Report Weekend” and “Justice with Judge Jeanine” would ordinarily air, the network showed Trump’s speech from Topeka, Kan., in full. But on Tuesday, a rally in Council Bluffs, Iowa, was particularly hard to find — it was not aired live on any major network, and even C-SPAN cut away for other news. And on Wednesday night, as Trump took the stage in Erie, Pa., at 7 p.m., Fox News stuck with its coverage of Hurricane Michael.
Since Trump took office, CNN and MSNBC have mostly declined to air his campaign rallies, though, like Fox News, they’ll typically carry any presidential speeches or comments to reporters.
Fox still provides livestreams of the campaign events online, but during a crucial period, with the midterms less than a month away, some in the White House are worried that the president is losing a prime-time megaphone to his base.
One senior White House official was unsure why the network would decide to cut away from presidential rallies, saying officials planned “to look into that” and wouldn’t be surprised if White House communications director Bill Shine, a former Fox News executive, was in touch with former colleagues about the trend.
The loss of national coverage is equally, if not more, concerning to the candidates on whose behalf Trump is traveling the country.
“It exposes us to a national audience that we normally don’t get to,” a Senate Republican campaign staffer said of the coverage of Trump rallies. “We tend to see lots of new sign-ups and small-dollar donations. There’s obviously folks streaming [rallies] online, but being able to be onstage with the president in front of a prime-time audience is huge for a campaign trying to reach conservatives across the country who will open up their wallets.”
A source close to Trump described the declining coverage as a “huge loss on the state and local level for Republicans because they’re certainly not going to get any of that on other cable networks.”
“If they stop taking them completely, that might create a problem,” this person said. “Trump is a massive consumer of the media, so he may be disappointed.”
Neither Fox News nor the White House responded to requests for comment.
Politico reported
FLOTUS
to
#metoo
Yes, you are being heard, now, show your hard evidence.
"The U.S. government lost $11.2 billion on its bailout of General Motors Co (GM.N), more than the $10.3 billion the Treasury Department estimated when it sold its remaining GM shares in December, according to a government report released on Wednesday."
GM ready to repay taxpayers?
Boy liberals are grasping at straws.
It's not who watches. it's who's going to show up at the polls.
Manchin' s lead is down to 1 point in West Virgina, Blackburn is up 12 in Tennessee Scott's up 1 in Florida. All those purple districts the Democrats were counting on are slipping away.
The "FORD Effect".
With most close races turning Red, only on thing in a month dominated the News cycle.
Blogger Roger Amick said...
President Donald Trump loves to brag about ratings, but he’s not getting them anymore.
so this is somehow scandalous and detrimental to trump and the GOP, alky?
so let's unpack this using some critical thinking and reasoning.
fox can well afford to scale back it's live event coverage of trump rallies since the fox audience is poised to vote GOP anyway.
CNN and MSDNC can well afford not to cover the rallies at all since their viewers wouldn't vote for trump under any circumstances.
so what you've seized upon is a steaming pile of bullshit to anyone with a critical eye.
geezus alky, you're so attention starved i'm surprised you're not tweeting death threats to yourself.
CNN journalists are enemies of the state. If he had Chris Matthews murdered you would be cheering.
One of my least favorite genres of political commentary is “Hitler Was a Vegetarian, Too,” which works this way: “Here is a dope, or a Very Bad Person, who holds views similar to the views of the people I wish to criticize, and the easiest thing for me to do in this instance is to pretend that this particular dope (or this individual episode of dopiness, if the subject is not a categorical dope) not only is typical of the views I wish to dispute but in fact is the best and truest representation of those views, defining the contours of the debate in a way that is dispositive,” i.e., “You know who else liked broccoli? Hitler!”
https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/10/ecosocialist-climate-change-meets-socialism/
what a coincidence. kevin williamson zeroed in on the alky this morning.
October 11, 2018 - O'Rourke Stalls 9 Points Down In Texas Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Republican Up 20 Points In Governor's Race
"Is the Beto bubble bursting or just hissing away with a slow leak? With less than four weeks until Election Day, Congressman Beto O'Rourke has hit a wall and remains the same nine points behind Sen. Ted Cruz as he was when Quinnipiac University polled the race last month," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2578
"The election is far from over, but Sen. Cruz would have to suffer a major collapse for him to lose. That is even more unlikely since 97 percent of Cruz voters say they are sure they won't change their minds."
"O'Rourke may be attracting massive crowds, but Cruz has a better favorability rating," Brown added.
-----------------------------
Sticking with my prediction of a double-digit Cruz win. Someone here actually thought Beto would prevail... that someone is obviously on TDS overload...
"Is the Beto bubble bursting or just hissing away with a slow leak?
here's what i don't get about this assclown...
nowadays you can't swing a dead cat without hitting a dozen or so folks raging about cultural appropriation. yet this kennedy wannabe, who's whiter than a mayonnaise sandwich on white bread in a minnesota snowstorm, has not only gotten away with it, he's lauded for it by the left.
once again the hypocrisy is staggering.
geezus alky, you're so attention starved i'm surprised you're not tweeting death threats to yourself.
Did you get a look at that fat pig at Ohio University?
Shudder
https://www.thepostathens.com/article/2018/10/anna-ayers-student-senate-ohio-university-death-threat
Yikes me thinks she desperately needs attention
Did you get a look at that fat pig at Ohio University?
Shudder
oh yeah. she was the inspiration for my comment to the alky.
Yikes me thinks she desperately needs attention
did you happen to notice her major?
JOURNALISM.
Ted CruzVerified account @tedcruz
US Senate candidate, TX
What did Michael Avenatti do right after beclowning himself with absurd and slanderous allegations during the Kavanaugh circus? Endorse Beto.
Cruz is annihilating Beto, I'm thinking like a lot of Republicans are going to do in the mid-terms.
I HOPE NO ONE MISSED ALKY PREDICTION FOR 2018.
DEMS pick up 50 seats in the US House.
He said "democrats are not running on Impeachment"
Yet in his prediction of the 50 plus seats to Dems, he cited impeachment is why they need to win so many.
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