So explain this to me like I am a six year old.
Nate Silver shows Arizona Democrat Krysten Sinema (who is behind the RCP averages and up only two in Silver's calculations) as having a 63.7% chance of winning in Arizona.
Meanwhile, Kevin Cramer, who owns a polling advantage of over 8 points (by both RCP and Silver calculations) has an almost identical 64.9% chance of winning in North Dakota.
