Saturday, October 27, 2018

More Nate Silver part XVII

So another fresh poll shows Josh Hawley with four point lead over Clair McCaskill.  That is the sixth poll in row what Hawley has led. In fact, McCaskill has not led in the past 9 polls. You have to go back to a CNN poll in September to find a time when McCaskill had a polling lead. 


From an objective polling standpoint, the incumbent is polling at 45% against her challenger, who is polling at over 48%. By all conventional wisdom, and incumbent at 45% who is behind by three points, in a state that leans against her, with basically two weeks to go in a campaign would be considered to be sinking hard. Not quite dead in the water, but splashing and flailing. 

Yet, Nate Silver somehow manages to provide a manner in which he sees the polling as "actually" being nearly tied, and he provides McCaskill to be approximately a 60% favorite.

Again, I have no issue if someone wants to just come out and say "I don't trust the polling and I have a gut feeling that McCaskill is going to win".  But this isn't what Nate Silver is doing. He is basically not trusting the polling, using a gut feeling that he believes McCaskill will win, while attempting to suggest that she is objectively and statistically ahead.

Sorry... she may end up winning. Anything is possible. But she is neither objectively or statistically ahead at this point.

18 comments:

Myballs said...

What s crock of shit Obama is spewing in his speeches this week.

Anonymous said...

"BLEXIT" Blacks Exiting the Socialist Democrat Party.

Welcome home to the Republican Party.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

This is just as possible as your assumption. I don't think that the pollsters are counting enough of the suburban, educated women voters, who voted against Hillary Clinton rather than in support for Donald Trump. The dislike of Clinton is not a factor for this election cycle.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

Lol, right. So women who you degrade constantly are now going to vote stupidly for a dem and throw away The Trump real Recovery and tax saving to their family.

And then there is Alky stupid"®

Anonymous said...

BLEXIT. CANDICE OWENS

"For decades, the black community has been in an emotionally abusive relationship with the Democrat Party” READ about #BLEXIT in my own words and please let me know what you guys think. #WeTheFree."

Anonymous said...

Oh, that not a migration thingy in Mexico to the US. Is that still a story?
Yawn.

Anonymous said...

Letter Sent to NJ Repulican Canidate" What the f--k is wrong with you … s---bag?" the typed letter read. "You BETTER hope that you don’t win! Or else. How many kids do you have… 7? Unlucky 7. This is what we think of you. Time to get out of politics."

Nevermind, it was to a Republican.

Commonsense said...

To paraphrase Hillary Clinton "We'll be civil when we win.".

Commonsense said...

Democrats have to spend real money on the New Jersey senate race.

If there's a blue wave, it's rather funny the have to play defense this late in the game.

Commonsense said...

The dislike of Clinton is not a factor for this election cycle.

But the dislike for leftist Democrats, radical feminist is.

commie said...


From an objective polling standpoint, the incumbent is polling at 45% against her challenger, who is polling at over 48%

You would not know objective if it bit you in the ass, CH.....very amusing!!!

Commonsense said...

Kirsten Gillibrand’s Pledge To Serve Full Senate Term Lasts Less Than 24 Hours

She has to be the most cynical if not the stupidest politician of our time (Harris could give her a run as the most stupid). She show utter contempt for her supporters as well as her opponents.

Anonymous said...

Democrat Claire Mckaskill is burning cash in NO like it is firewood in an attempt to keep her ever expanding ads in that Senate seat.

"We'll be civil when we win." Hillary Clinton.

Anonymous said...

Notice the Left is running away from the failures of their leadership.

Myballs said...

Agree about gillibrand. If only the stupid NYC dems would stop electing jackasses to congress for the rest of us. GOP wins most NY counties.

That's what dems want for the country to let NY and can elect for everyone.

commie said...

WHAT A CROCK OF HOTAIR as our dear cramps politics away as we bury another 11 people Killed by an assault rifle....sad what a crappy example you provide, cramps....just like trump....I imagine he will complain the MSM is covering these murders instead of that dangerous caravan with muslims and murderers trying to get into your neighborhood to kill all...

York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand and her surprising pledge (during a debate) to serve her full, six-year term if re-elected nine days from now. (Okay… it was only yesterday.) The claim effectively removed her from contention for the 2020 Democratic presidential primary. At the time, I noted that “stories about politicians lying or going back on their word later rank right up there with dog-bites-man reports,” before going on to speculate that she might not have had that great of a shot at the nomination anyway.

commie said...

rest of us. GOP wins most NY counties.

HORSESHIT LOSER!!!! Don't you ever check anything before looking like a stupid uneducated R like menstral???


NY has a total of 26 congressmen , with 17 Democrats and 9 Republicans. 1 vacant.....thanx to an arrest....LOL