Senate Update

So where are we at, with a little over three weeks left before election day in the "race for the Senate"?

Well according to Real Clear Politics, taking everything at face value, the GOP is on pace to pick up two seats (North Dakota, Missouri).

More realistic is the viewpoint that the GOP is likely to garner no less than fifty seats, the Democrats should hold no less than forty four, and we have six seats somewhere in the middle.

This is a change, albeit not a drastic one, from when many prognosticators were suggesting that the Democrats picking up the Senate was a very real possibility. Nate Silver, at one time had their chances at better than one in three.

What happened is that Ted Cruz (in spite of Beto-mania) has been polling consistently ahead (anywhere between three and nine points) for the past month. Blackburn has opened up a significant lead in Tennessee, as Bredesen has really struggled to say the right things about the Kavanaugh confirmation. These are two GOP saves on seats that the Democrats hoped to possibly snag.

A couple of weeks ago, most everyone was thinking that Nevada and Arizona were pretty much sure Democratic pickups, but things have seemed to have changed in both of those states. Dean Heller has led in three of the last four polls, and may end up holding on. Meanwhile Kyrsten Sinema has had a horrible week, as old videos of her defending American Taliban fighters, calling Arizonans crazy, and calling Arizona the meth lab of democracy. A couple of good polls have likely turned Martha McSally into a favorite in that race.

On the flip side Kevin Cramer in North Dakota has opened up a big lead on the incumbent Heidi Heitkamp, which lends itself well to a big GOP pickup in that state. Josh Hawley continues to hold a small polling average lead over Claire McCaskill in Missouri. In the last nine polls, Hawley has lead in six, two have been even, and McCaskill has only led one.

Meanwhile, three other vulnerable Democrats (Ben Nelson in Florida, Joe Donnelly in Indiana, and Jon Tester in Montana) see themselves in dog fights. None of those states have had recent polling that might reflect some sort of Kavanaugh effect, with all three Senators casting votes against a Candidate that was likely popular in their states.

I'd say that the chances of the Democrats taking over the Senate are now a long shot (Nate Silver puts it at approximately one in five). In fact, I would offer that Democrats would be happy right now with a wash, or even a loss of one seat. I would offer that some on the right are secretly hoping to pick up three or four seats.