- 2016 - GOP 49.1 - DEM 48.0
- 2014 - GOP 51.2 - DEM 45.5
- 2012 - GOP 47.6 - DEM 48.8
- 2010 - GOP 51.7 - DEM 44.9
- Ave - GOP 49.9 - DEM 46.8
So on average, the GOP has beaten the Democrats by over three percentage points in the past four congressional elections. In non-Presidential years, the Republicans have held a 5.75 percent advantage. To be clear, this congressional vote represents the full vote of the country, since every voter has a Representative to the House, and every member is up for election every election cycle.
Now we can bicker and argue that congressional districts are unfair, incumbents have too many advantages, or that by only averaging a three percentage advantage, that the GOP does not deserve the big numbers that they have enjoyed.
But it's simply wrong to continue to argue that our majority Republican House of Representatives is somehow represented by a "minority" of voters. It's not.
_______
Now the Senate numbers are going to be different and harder to calculate. Only about a third of Senate seats are up in every election cycle, and in certain states (such as California) there are many times no Republicans on the ballot. Certainly if you take over 10 million voters in one state (over ten percent of the overall vote), and not have a single vote for a Republican (because they are not on the ballot), that's not going to allow for a fair comparison as to where the "country" as a whole stands on the issues of the Senate vote.
So when someone provides you a number that shows that more Senate votes were cast for Democrats than Republicans, you can take that with a pretty large grain of salt. The fact that one state (California) is so overwhelmingly Democrat that they do not even allow a GOP name on the ballot, well... that says a lot more about the internal problems with Democrats not securing their "fair share" of the congressional seats, than it does with any inherent "unfairness" of the system as a whole.
52 comments:
Looks to me that in those midterm elections the Republicans did substantially better than in presidential election years.
Wonder if that will play out again...
Well I guess you said that....
judge shocked and dismayed to find career lying scumbags in state dept...
In a combative exchange at a hearing Friday in Washington, D.C., a federal judge unabashedly accused career State Department officials of lying and signing "clearly false" affidavits to derail a series of lawsuits seeking information about former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's private email server and her handling of the 2012 terrorist attack on the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi, Libya.
U.S. District Court Judge Royce Lamberth said he was "shocked" and "dumbfounded" when he learned that FBI had granted immunity to former Clinton chief of staff Cheryl Mills during its investigation into the use of Clinton's server, according to a court transcript of his remarks.
"I had myself found that Cheryl Mills had committed perjury and lied under oath in a published opinion I had issued in a Judicial Watch case where I found her unworthy of belief, and I was quite shocked to find out she had been given immunity in — by the Justice Department in the Hillary Clinton email case," Lamberth said during Friday's hearing.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/state-department-provided-clearly-false-statements-to-derail-hillary-clinton-doc-requests-federal-judge-says
House races where money is changing the game
The districts where the “fundamentals” margin in FiveThirtyEight’s 2018 House forecast changed the most after incorporating third-quarter fundraising totals from individual contributions
DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES
DISTRICT NAME Q3 CONTRIBS. NAME Q3 CONTRIBS. MARGIN CHANGE
KS-3 Sharice Davids $2,261k Kevin Yoder $466k D+9
NY-27 Nate McMurray 460 Chris Collins 6 D+8
NY-24 Dana Balter 1,342 John Katko 147 D+6
NY-23 Tracy Mitrano 839 Thomas Reed 325 D+6
ME-2 Jared Golden 2,464 Bruce Poliquin 199 D+6
GA-6 Lucy McBath 844 Karen Handel 365 D+5
GA-4 Hank Johnson 3 Joe Profit 35 R+5
IL-6 Sean Casten 2,507 Peter Roskam 776 D+4
MT-1 Kathleen Williams 1,988 Greg Gianforte 999 D+4
VA-1 Vangie Williams 252 Rob Wittman 116 D+4
AZ-6 Anita Malik 148 David Schweikert 0 D+4
IN-4 Tobi Beck 43 Jim Baird 110 R+4
WV-3 Richard Ojeda 1,150 Carol Miller 262 D+4
TX-25 Julie Oliver 328 Roger Williams 48 D+4
PA-10 George Scott 788 Scott Perry 209 D+4
OR-2 Jamie McLeod-Skinner 611 Greg Walden 243 D+4
AZ-4 David Brill 146 Paul Gosar 33 D+3
VA-2 Elaine Luria 1,258 Scott Taylor 453 D+3
VA-6 Jennifer Lewis 254 Ben Cline 192 D+3
MN-8 Joe Radinovich 727 Pete Stauber 274 D+3
NY-21 Tedra Cobb 663 Elise Stefanik 228 D+3
CA-48 Harley Rouda 2,753 Dana Rohrabacher 263 D+3
WA-3 Carolyn Long 1,439 Jaime Herrera Beutler 335 D+3
IL-14 Lauren Underwood 1,791 Randy Hultgren 225 D+3
NY-1 Perry Gershon 1,201 Lee Zeldin 560 D+3
SOURCE: FEDERAL ELECTION COMMISSION
Washington (CNN) — A heated argument in the West Wing between chief of staff John Kelly and national security adviser John Bolton over a recent surge in border crossings turned into a shouting match Thursday, two sources familiar with the argument told CNN.
The exchange lay bare a bitter disagreement that has existed between two of President Donald Trump's top aides for weeks now. Trump, who was incensed about the rising levels of migrants and threatened to shut down the southern border on Twitter earlier that morning, took Bolton's side during the argument.
While arguing is frequent in this divided West Wing, a source familiar with the clash equated it with a falling out.
The White House declined to comment on the argument. Bolton continued on with scheduled meetings throughout the afternoon.
Related Article: Supreme Court hears immigration detention case
The fight between Kelly and Bolton startled several aides throughout the West Wing on Thursday, a person who heard the shouting said, adding that the raised voices went well beyond the heated discussions of the Trump administration.
After the blowup, aides whispered privately that one of the men might leave the White House given the deep disagreement over the border. The fact that the President sided with Bolton, which only added to Kelly's fury.
Washington (CNN) — A heated argument in the West Wing between chief of staff John Kelly and national security adviser John Bolton over a recent surge in border crossings turned into a shouting match Thursday, two sources familiar with the argument told CNN.
LMAO.
i'm sure this is an exclusive scoop by the heiress anderson vanderbilt.
or is it lil jimmy acosta?
i can't keep up with all the assclowns at CNN.
good one alky!
So on average, the GOP has beaten the Democrats by over three percentage points in the past four congressional elections
Which proves you are a bigger asshole than your POTUS,,,,,I guess you are expecting a major loss since all you have proved is the electorate from the right is always energized....well CH....I believe that may soon change horseface....
Blogger Roger Amick said...
House races where money is changing the game
hey alky, i didn't see beano o'rourke on that list. i heard he raised something like $38M with his kennedy teeth and skateboard. and he's STILL losing to lyin' ted. go figure, eh alky?
oh, and your info is a little dated. the kid at 538 has updated NY-21 ...
New York 21st
LIKELY R
1 in 10
Chance the Democrat wins (9.9%)
9 in 10
Chance the Republican wins (90.1%)
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/new-york/21/
hopefully nate doesn't screw the pooch on this as bad as he did on hillary.
Bog the TV nets are really puffing up beto. He's no phenomenon. I predict Cruz will win by seven points.
Nate Silver has NEVER once projected a Republican to win and be wrong. He is historically 100% accurate in predicting Republicans to win.
His record predicting Democrats to win? Well all of his misses come predicting Democrats will win, and then they end up losing.
GA-6 Lucy McBath 844 Karen Handel 365 D+5
What the hell is the money being spent on? I thought Handel was unopposed until I voted this week. No yard signs, no commercials
And I think pajama boy was up that amount before Election Day. But I knew pajama boy was in the race
And why would Hank Guam my tipover and capsize Johnson need money, this is Cynthia batshit insane McKinney’s old district. It’s competitive??
So Donna Shalala decides to invite Nancy Pelosi and Brenda Lee for a little get together in Miami and proceeds to give away FL-27 to the Republicans
I thought Handel was unopposed until I voted this week. No yard signs, no commercials
Now that is funny, loser....I guess the R was counting idiots like you to pull the R lever without thinking.....which you do very well!!!
Damn she's dumb!!
Dumb as a box of rocks. She was in Glynn county last week one agent, told me, there weren’t a 100 people at the rally
set of polls of likely voters released Thursday show Democrat candidates with leads in the Indiana and West Virginia Senate races and tied in Nevada.
In Indiana, Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) led businessman Mike Braun (R) by 44 percent to 36 percent, according to Vox Populi Polling, outside of the poll's 3.5 point margin of error. Among undecided voters, 11 percent are leaning towards Donnelly while 9 percent are leaning towards Braun.
The poll surveyed 783 Indiana voters.
Meanwhile, Vox Populi's West Virginia survey showed incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin (D) leading state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) by 45 percent to 40 percent, outside the poll's 3.5 points margin of error.
Among undecided voters 7 percent were leaning towards Manchin, while 8 percent were leaning towards Morrisey.
The West Virginia poll surveyed 789 voters.
In Nevada, Democrat Jacky Rosen was tied with Sen. Dean Heller (R) at 44 percent each, within the margin of error of 3.7 points in the survey of 614 voters. The poll showed 7 percent of undecided voters leaning towards Rosen and 5 percent towards Heller.
Nate Silver had more guts than you. You refused to predict the outcome.
Coward
The loud-mouth, attention-whore mayor of San Juan is now silent about her own corruption.
FBI agents raid San Juan government offices as part of investigation into fraud, corruption
So the Democrat canidates for governor of Puerto Rico and Florida is under FBI investigation. Democrats the party of corruption and incompentents.
Well Rog...
I never made "predictions". I used spreadsheets and polling cross-tabs to make an objective analysis of the numbers, and used the numbers from those spreadsheets (whether I personally liked it or not).
It's why I never missed more than one state-wide race in the same election year.
But as I stated in 2016, I no longer trusted the polling. Many of the pollsters refused to provide their cross-tabs, and much of the polling simply didn't make sense to me.
That being said, my one spreadsheet (for the President's national popular vote polling - where I found about eight or so pollsters that had good cross tabs) ended up within a couple of tenths of a percentages of the overall popular vote.
But even that was odd because those national polls did not correspond well with state polling.
____
By using my subjective opinion that it would be useless to use the polling to determine the state results, and not provide any projections...
I ended up being "correct" in saying that the polls were not going to be accurate.
Roger is like a white flag, he moves as the wind blows.
So Roger does a 180, now loves money in politics.
Look at this cunt. Socialist as what.
"We have to have total clarity about what we do, when it comes to everything — a woman’s right to choose, gay marriage … whether it’s about immigration, whether it’s about gun safety, whether it’s about climate … I think that we owe the American people to be there for them, for their financial security, respecting the dignity and worth of every person in our country, and if there’s some collateral damage for some others who do not share our view, well, so be it..."
Is the above:
A, Hillary
B, Nanny State Poloser
All you have are subjective opinions.
You have become strictly partisan in your "analysis" of anything political.
I intentionally attempt to disregard my political analysis. I both succeed and sometimes I don't. But I try to. An open mind is a very important part of life.
much of the polling simply didn't make sense to me.
Unless it was Rassmussun. Your partisan sunglasses are never off of you face
Nice one racist rodent bastard
Bill Kristol said
Fun week at the White House: Kelly and Bolton in a screaming match today outside the Oval. McGahn leaves as WH Counsel mid-week, rather than stay through midterms. Fred Fleitz, longtime Bolton aide who came with him to WH, suddenly leaves as NSC COS after four months.
What’s up?
Nice one racist rodent bastard. Politico reports
Long-simmering tension between White House chief of staff John Kelly and national security adviser John Bolton boiled over on Thursday, three administration officials confirmed, in a heated shouting match outside the Oval Office over a recent surge in southern border crossings.
Trump has been fuming in public and private over the mounting border crisis, worrying about the potential political fallout just weeks before the midterms, according to White House aides. The president threatened on Thursday to order the military to shut down the Southern border if Latin American countries don’t take new steps to slow the flow of migrants.
Bolton and Kelly sparred over how to respond to the migrant surge, with Bolton favoring Trump’s aggressive approach and Kelly urging caution. The fight reached a fever pitch when Bolton criticized Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen, arguing that Nielsen, who earlier served as Kelly’s deputy at the White House, hasn’t done enough to manage the rapid increase in migrants, two of the administration officials said. That comment infuriated Kelly, a retired Marine general who remains a close ally of Nielsen’s.
The fight was so intense that it startled aides working in a West Wing long inured to internal chaos. One of the administration officials who described the incident wondered aloud whether Kelly or Nielsen might step down in the coming days, reigniting ever-present speculation in Washington about the future of the chief of staff.
alky, i don't care how many stories you post repeating the same line of bullshit from anonymous sources, administration officials, or any other unnamed source.
and captain cuck biff kristol?
LOL.
like i said, good one alky!
Blogger Roger Amick said...
All you have are subjective opinions.
said the amateur political prognosticator whose predictions are consistently, incredibly and galactically wrong...
...by a fucking landslide.
btw, how's the alky blog coming along, alky? gosh, i would think that by now you would have anal-ysis, charts, graphs, polling data, and other various election content up to your ass by now.
have mail order duct tape your tablet and your mr. microphone to your walker so you can pontificate on the go.
i can't wait to consume all your in-depth election predictions, alky.
this is Cynthia batshit insane McKinney’s old district. It’s competitive??
oh my, how i miss cynthia mckinney. the house sub-committee hearings she would attend were instant classics. i mean, she really put the "c is for comedy" into c-span.
oh hey alky...
here's your beloved FBI doing what they do best:
Terry James Albury, a former FBI agent in Minnesota, was sentenced to four years in prison with an additional three years of supervised release on Thursday in U.S. District Court in Saint Paul.
Albury admitted that he leaked documents to a reporter from The Intercept, an online news publication.
He worked as an FBI Special Agent at the field office in Minneapolis at the time of the disclosure in 2016-2017. He was also working as a liaison with the Department of Customs and Border Protection at MSP International Airport during that same time period.
https://kstp.com/news/kstp-terry-albury-fbi-minnesota-sentenced/5113351/
Why didn't this happen in The Lost Years.
"The newest contract between the union and U.S. Steel certifies that the U.S. steelworkers will see a 14 percent wage hike over the next four years, marking the largest pay increase for steelworkers in six years."
On alky "galactically wrong..."
Like his "Bret Kavanaugh will never be confirmed"
He'll, Jane was cheering on the sluts of the Socialist.
"The newest contract between the union and U.S. Steel certifies
Is that the same US Steel that trump lied about building 7 new plants???? 14% over 4 years may just cover inflation and health care increases.....Didn't know you were a union lover goat fucker....
Well Rog...
One of us (me) has been consistently correct.
One of us (you) has been consistently wrong.
Leave it to a liberal to demand that being correct in your analysis is akin to being "partisan".
The current inflation rate is 1.9% and health insurance is part of their benefits package.
It's more than a COL adjustment.
Facts are stubborn things.
The current inflation rate is 1.9% and health insurance is part of their benefits package.
You don't know that as fact asshole....If insurance increases for the company....they pass it right along to the employee....god you are dumber than a brick....try again....you lose....
One of us (me) has been consistently correct.
BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!! No wonder you like trump, you have a head as big as his dick.....LOLOLOLOL!!!
Leave it to a liberal to demand that being correct in your analysis is akin to being "partisan".
the alky is employing the same type of liberal "logic" used to denounce the senate representation and electoral college.
A-OK when they win, grounds for changing the rules when they lose.
ben shapiro has a saying - "the truth doesn't care about your feelings."
- "the truth doesn't care about your feelings."
Especially telling especially coming from you and your fellation of trump...
You don't know that as fact asshole....If insurance increases for the company....they pass it right along to the employee.
Yes, as a matter of fact, I do. Employees are actually charged less half the premium the insurance plan charges the company. If you don't believe me, just try to COBRA the insurance from a previous employer. You'll be in for quite a sticker shock.
Yes, as a matter of fact, I do
No you don't....you have no clue what they get as a bennie in insurance....And with insurance predicted to increase at 10% a year....the company ain't going to eat that....asshole and that is a fact.....I'm retired and have coverage from my ex-employer and my portion continuously increases even though they are self insured.....idiot..
Obviously you haven't a clue. This is where your wisest move would just be to shut up.
Being willfully stupid however, means it's a move you won't take.
This is where your wisest move would just be to shut up.
Sure dumbass....keep fellating trump.....it is what you do best since you don;t know shit and cannot back up a single thing you post.....asshole Next time post a fact instead of what you think you know....which again has been proven to be nothing!!!! Keep digging, it is fun seeing you be the no nothing you are!!!
You know when you are vulgar and insulting it means you lose.
You know when you are vulgar and insulting it means you lose.
And you support a vulgar womanizing whore loving lying asshole without hesitation.....Which means you are an idiot,,,,I win!!!!!LOLOLOL
Yes Dennis, you opened your mouth and removed all doubt.
Dennis like Alky know so little.
'm retired and have coverage from my ex-employer and my portion continuously increases even though they are self insured."
Shitty retirement package.
Not our fault and has zero to do with the New Steel Union agreement.
Denise , all doubt removed.
Why didn't Obama get this done?
• US Steel to invest $750M in Gary Works plant in Indiana
• US Steel to restart more of downstate Illinois mill"
Why didn't Obama get this done?
Hey goat fucker, why did trump lie about all those non existent new plants?????? It was a lie and your BS is nothing more than window dressin trying to stretch truth from whole cloth.....dayyum you are a fucking asshole...Grow a set child....you got shit again...
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