Unlike 2018, there will be more GOP seats (twenty two including the Arizona Special election) up for grabs than Democrat Seats (twelve). That being said, of the twenty two GOP seats up for grabs, fourteen are in states where both the Senator in question and Donald Trump won those previous elections by double digits. If you include Texas (where John Cornyn is running again after winning by twenty eight) and Maine (where Susan Collins won by thirty seven) into the safe zone, you end up with six seats may be considered competitive. While the Democrats are only defending twelve seats, they are split six and six as to whether this simple formula puts them into the safe zone or the competitive zone.
Obviously things could change. There could be a big retirement or a primary opponent who sneaks in and takes a fairly safe seat (eg Susan Collins) and puts that seat in play. Also, Incumbents on the bubble (such as Jodi Ernst, David Perdue, Tom Udall, Tina Smith) may not be in play, depending on opponent and other events.
Right now, the only two seats that would calculate to be favored as pick ups would be the Special Election in Alabama (where Doug Jones will likely be a significant underdog to any Republican not accused of molesting teen age girls) and Colorado, where Cory Gardner holds a seat in a State won by Hillary Clinton (by five points). In fact, other than Jones, Garner, and Collins (Hillary plus three in Maine), there are no other Senators who are not in a state considered the same partisanship as their own.
If you are just looking for my opinion, I would offer that Alabama will be an almost assured pickup for the Republicans. I would say that "right now" the only seats that would currently be considered "in play" are going to be Virginia and New Hampshire for the Democrats, as well as Arizona, North Carolina, and Colorado for the Republicans.
Safe GOP Seats:
Safe Democrat Seats:
Competitive GOP Seats:
Competitive Democrat Seats:
26 comments:
Safe GOP Seats:
No such thing as a safe GOP seat anymore, especially with current asshole in chief spewing bile and lies every chance he gets....Me thinks the whole GOP of aged white men is slowly disappearing as a demographic and I see nothing in the GOP agenda that opens the door to anyone else....that is reality and will be the subject of discussion for the next 2 years....that and burgeoning deficit whose cost will soon exceed the DOD budget....so much for your conservative roots as the R's are spending money faster than a drunken malodorous.....
US Democrat House will stop the spending. Restoring a balanced budget.
CNN sued the Trump administration on behalf of reporter Jim Acosta on Tuesday, asking a court to restore Acosta’s White House press pass after President Trump suspended it last week.
The unusual lawsuit, an escalation of Trump’s longrunning war of words with CNN, seeks a judge’s intervention after Trump banished Acosta from the White House grounds for an indefinite period after a brief altercation between Acosta and a White House press aide.
After a testy exchange between the president and the reporter, the unidentified press aide went up to Acosta to take a microphone out of his hands. As a result, press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders announced a few hours later that the White House had revoked Acosta’s “hard pass,” which enables reporters to enter and leave the grounds each day.
CNN filed suit in U.S. District Court in Washington. “We have asked this court for an immediate restraining order requiring the pass be returned to Jim, and will seek permanent relief as part of this process,” the network said in a statement released Tuesday morning.
Legal experts say the network’s chances of winning in court are favorable. The First Amendment protects journalists against arbitrary restrictions by government officials.
And you care about this why?
Acosta has no right to a White House press pass and CNN can send another reporter over anytime
I don't know dopie. Tom Cotton is very safe for example.
Roger Amick said...
CNN sued the Trump administration on behalf of reporter Jim Acosta on Tuesday
old news, alky.
btw, did you hear that brenda snipes is a republican? yeah, news to me too. MSDNC's andrea mitchell was the source of that fake news. i guess that makes her an enemy of the people, eh?
"Oil prices fell sharply on Tuesday, deepening a rout that has plunged the energy complex into a bear market as growing supply is poised to swamp demand next year.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/13/oil-markets-opec-global-stock-markets-in-focus.html
huh.
i'm old enough to remember when 0linsky told us we couldn't drill our way to lower oil prices." RRB
Gov Jerry Brown ordered special fire protection and CHIP escort for Hollywood elites.
Goes back to drinking imported herbal tea as 44 die in man made fires.
So wrong so often
"According to energy analysts and experts, President Trump’s reckless decision to pull out of the Iran deal has led to higher oil prices,” Schumer said. “These higher oil prices are translating directly to soaring gas prices, something we know disproportionately hurts middle- and lower-income people, since a larger chunk of their disposable income goes for gasoline.”
So wrong so often:
"when I took office the price of gasoline was $1.80, $1.86. Why is that? Because the economy was on the verge of collapse. Because we were about to go through the worst recession since the Great Depression, as a consequence of some of the same policies that Governor Romney is now promoting. So it’s conceivable that Governor Romney could bring down gas prices, because with his policies we might be back in that same mess.” Obimbo
Frail Broken Ruthie Ginsburg still off work, still at home.
Anonymous caliphate4vr said...
Acosta has no right to a White House press pass and CNN can send another reporter over anytime
in retrospect i think pulling his creds was a bad idea. they should've left him in the press pool and simply boxed him out. not being called upon for a couple years would've driven him nuts. instead they gave him exactly what he wanted by making it about him.
Tom Cotton is very safe for example.
Susan collins ain't...Inhofe is 83 and how much longer will 76 year old Jowls hang on???? Can see it now....these old white men hanging on like Strom....wheel him in to let him vote and wheel him out....very sad that your party has become the age of old white farts, just like you ballz....a dying breed...
The lasting trump legacy that many here will embrace as David Duke dictates policy...
Hate crimes rose 17 percent last year, according to new FBI data
Anti-Semitic incidents were up 37 percent in 2017, according to new figures showing an increase in such crime
here's jim acosta making it all about the love of his life - jim acosta:
http://ace.mu.nu/archives/378070.php
look closely...
look closely...
At another fake news site....only assholes like you think that ace of spades is relevant or credible....idiot
Legal experts say the network’s chances of winning in court are favorable. The First Amendment protects journalists against arbitrary restrictions by government officials.
no one ir restricting acosta. he's free to report from OUTSIDE the white house fence just like every other 3rd rate reporter.
perhaps the white house should charge him with battery against the intern.
no one ir restricting acosta.
And now you are a legal expert....maybe Scotty should hand the reins of CH truth over to you since you are such a wealth of useless links and knowledge....
Mr. Dennis, you realize your huge error or shall I tell you?
It's a lot better map for the Democrats than 2018, when they lost at most two seats. I expect there will be a few retirements that will create openings for a party change.
No way Udall's seat is competitive in my view, barring something extraordinary occurring. He's very popular here and would have been a shoo-in for Governor had he run this year. He decided staying in the Senate was more important, so look for him to run and win easily in 2020.
Indy -
Better? Sure? But does better get them to 50 or 51? Not likely.
I agree that Udall is probably safe, as is Tina Smith in Minnesota, Jodi Ernst in Iowa, Dan Sullivan in Alaska (unless Begich makes another play). Gary Peters may be safe, as might David Perdue.
There may only be a handful of competitive races.
Partisanship is making it more and more difficult for Democrats to win in Red State or Republicans to win in Blue. I really don't believe that a retirement in Kentucky or Idaho or Massachusetts or Oregon is going to matter much. Not in this political climate.
They have a pretty good chance of winning a Senate majority after 2020. Better imo than they had of winning a Senate majority after 2018 on this date two years ago.
No Blue wall in 2016
NO Blue wave in 2018
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