The NBC News Data Analytics Lab, using voter file data from TargetSmart, found that 35,526,881 early votes were counted nationwide as of Monday. In states that have early voting, 42% of voters are Republican, 41% are Democrats, and 17% have either independent or have another party affiliation.
- The 2014 midterms had approximately 76 million voters
- the 2010 midterms had a record of nearly 85 million voters
- the 2016 Presidential election had a approximately 125 million
Assuming that this particular midterm will break the 2010 midterm record, but not really garner a Presidential election vote, it may be safe to say that we just may approach close to a 100 million voters in this midterm. Using that as a round number, we can declare that approximately 35% of the vote is in, while another 65% will come in on election day.
Assuming both parties are garnering approximately 95% of their own voters, and providing the Democrats a 10% advantage with the independent voter, you are looking at the current early voting numbers to be effectively a wash (within a single point one way or the other). Given the numbers as they currently exist, there really isn't another realistic way to look at this.
So, Nate Silver's assumption right now is that the Democrats need to win the popular vote by 5.6% in order to take control of the House. His current projection is that Democrats will win the popular vote by 9.1%.
So given that we have established that 65% of the vote will come in on election day, the calculations are fairly simple. Democrats will need to:
- Win the election day voting by between 8% and 8.5% to get to 5.6%
- Win the election day voting by between 13% and 14% to get to 9.1%
So what is the realistic reason that Democrats have not dominated (and may even be behind in) the early voting in a year that Silver expects them to win by nearly 10 points?
Is there really a good reason to assume that the election day in person voting will favor the Democrats by these sorts of overwhelming numbers, when early voting did not?
Not sure how to answer this particular question intelligently. Apparently, neither does Nate Silver, Charlie Cook, Larry Sabato, or any of the other high profile prognosticators, who seem immune to addressing the reality of the early voting numbers.
63 comments:
Nate Silver: No One Should be Surprised if Democrats Only Pick Up 19 Seats and Fail to Take House (Video)
"the range is really wide..."
https://youtu.be/RI7xKtUsoww
range, wide... yeah, somewhere between 1 and 435 seats. that this fuckstick get's paid to peddle his forecasts is nothing short of amazing.
you need to get on his payroll, alky.
Nate is covering his ass.
And I would not be surersed if the senate flips either......Commie covering his ass....LOLOLOL
Media still sticking with the story that dems are strong and GOP is scrambling. That haven't learned a thing.
Upset of the night will be stabenow losing to john James.
Nate is covering his ass.
i know, but that's not what this is about. one is either a legitimate pollster conducting polling using a legitimate methodology... or you're not. covering your ass or trying to 'back in' to to the actual voting results in a lame effort to maintain a level of credibility to keep the $$$ rolling in serves no purpose who look to these polls for guidance.
and what's especially frustrating is that pollsters like rasmussen who do have a record of accuracy are dismissed as partisan, while assholes like silver continue to receive praise for providing nothing more than what liberals want to hear.
silver's a fraud.
and charlie cook is not much better.
That haven't learned a thing.
You mean like trump????
A big political gambler I met in Las Vegas in 2016 is in London betting that the Republican Party will keep control of the U.S. Congress. Robert Barnes is essentially wagering that U.S. pollsters haven’t fixed any of the problems that led them astray during the 2016 presidential campaign.
Barnes, a trial lawyer, lives in Las Vegas, frequenting the city’s sportsbooks, but he has to travel to the British Isles to wager on U.S. politics since it’s not allowed in the U.S. On this side of the Atlantic, the bookies know him as a high roller; the political betting team at Ladbrokes even tweeted his photo to mark his arrival and his 100,000 pound ($130,000) bet on the Republicans’ House majority. Given that the entire U.S. primaries betting market is in the single millions in the U.K. and Ireland, that’s quite momentous.
Barnes told me he’d gotten “about 3/2” odds, which would mean winnings of 150,000 pounds on the 100,000 he staked, implying a 40 percent probability. Ladbrokes’s official odds on a Republican majority are 13/8 (38 percent probability). Paddy Power, a big bookmaker based in Ireland (where Barnes went to place his bets in 2016), gives 2/1 odds on a Republican House majority (33 percent probability). These odds are far removed from most U.S. pollsters’ predictions; Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight website, which aggregates polls, puts the probability of the Republicans’ keeping control of Congress at 14.2 percent.
Barnes wishes he could have gotten Silver’s odds, about 6/1, but, just like him, the U.K. bookies don’t quite trust U.S. polls. The difference is in the degree of disbelief. Barnes, for his part, is as confident of winning as he was when he placed large bets on Brexit and Donald Trump’s election victory in 2016.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-11-05/midterm-elections-why-one-punter-thinks-democrats-will-lose
a $130 large bet against nate silver. heh.
a $130 large bet against nate silver. heh.
Unlike you, he can burn his money any way he likes......
Republicans must be so proud to be members of this party.
Doing everything they can to deny people their right to vote in Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Kansas, Texas, Missouri, and North Dakota. A total of 31 states have been found to have been trying to restrict people's rights to vote in the past year, every effort pushed by the GOP.
Racist dog whistling in the Florida and Georgia gubernatorial races. Anti-Semitic dog whistles and ads in Connecticut, California, Alaska, North Carolina, and other places. And many of these AFTER the recent massacre at a synagogue in PA.
Overt appeals to white supremacists, Nazis, the KKK, and racists for their support.
A leader of the party who has increased his already impressive lying to unheard of levels in recent weeks. Who has preached racism, division, and violence. Who has said that nothing matters as long as HE wins.
Really, if the GOP were their child, Republicans would be so proud.
https://www.nytimes.com/…/politics/voting-suppression-elect…
https://www.washingtonpost.com/…/republicans-attack-jewis…/…
https://www.vox.com/…/kelli-ward-mike-cernovich-arizona-rep…
https://www.nytimes.com/…/politics/voting-suppression-elect…
https://www.rollingstone.com/…/trump-racist-ad-immigrants-…/
Nonsensical crap from Roger.
alky, here's the thing about dog whistles...
...if you're the only one hearing them, you're the fucking DOG.
idiot.
and btw, 0linsky's buddy farrakhan in iran shouting "death to america" and "death to israel?"
there's your fucking bullhorn dog whistle, asshole.
North Dakota is going to the Republican.
Missouri McCaskill
Tennessee Democrat
Indiana Democrat
Nevada Democrati
Arizona Democrat
Texas: High early turnout and the last second decision in the house vote in former Republican seats that are showing the Democrats are going to take a lot of Trump precincts. If in the voting booth they decide well "fuck Trump" The Democrats take back the Senate too.
The odds are against me. But this is the most important and unusual election in my lifetime.
The odds are against me.
they always are. by a LANDSLIDE.
LOL. imbecile.
If there is a Blue Wave the President will claim that voting fraud stole the election.
Blogger Commonsense said...
Nonsensical crap from Roger.
i can only imagine how fucked up the alky is going to be if the GOP cleans up tonight.
he'll end up back in kaiser permanente's mental health ward.
I was in the surgical department.
I have an incision about 18 inches long.
In six months I will have six pack abs.
Missouri McCaskill
Tennessee Democrat
Indiana Democrat
Nevada Democrati
Arizona Democrat
Delusional
We shall see.
The last polls show me that I have it right on.
Roger Amick said...
If there is a Blue Wave the President will claim that voting fraud stole the election.
that's right alky, that's in perfect alignment with trump's public statement that he predicts the dems take the house.
idiot.
The last polls show me that I have it right on.
which polls would those be, alky?
post them.
Delusional
perhaps, but keep in mind that roger is informed by the MSDNC/Kos/MotherJones/CNN poll.
You could well be wrong on every one of those except North Dakota.
Or is your rally cry this year "Beto in a landslide!"?
as if i needed one more reason to be thankful that mcstain is in the fucking ground:
Mark Salter, the former chief of staff and speechwriter for the late Republican Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), called on voters to vote Democrat on Election Day.
https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/415125-longtime-mccain-aide-vote-for-the-democrat-in-most-cases
In six months I will have six pack abs.
You planning on a tattoo that looks like six pack abs?
Could Tester be in trouble?
Early voting
140,611 GOP
88,392 DEM
72,331 IND
That's over 300,000 early votes
335,552 votes were cast overall in 2016
hey alky,
here's the big cheese over at the juice box mafia playpen vox imparting some words of electoral wisdom:
Ezra Klein
Verified account
@ezraklein
Follow Follow @ezraklein
More
I don't think people are ready for the crisis that will follow if Democrats win the House popular vote but not the majority.
After Kavanaugh, Trump, Garland, Citizens United, Bush v. Gore, etc, the party is on the edge of losing faith in the system (and reasonably so).
1:10 PM - 5 Nov 2018
https://twitter.com/ezraklein/status/1059553661586567168
You planning on a tattoo that looks like six pack abs?
or he's going to have the aide in the kaiser looney bin tighten the straps on his straightjacket.
Who Did the Socialist Democrats run?
"yeah, ya think the race for attorney general is particularly tight this year, alky?
Will they get the votes of 200 k laid of Ford Workers?
Voted. BIG Line. Everyone HAD photo I'D. Scanned. Vote, done.
heckuva job, 0linsky:
In 2013, hundreds of CIA officers — many working nonstop for weeks — scrambled to contain a disaster of global proportions: a compromise of the agency’s internet-based covert communications system used to interact with its informants in dark corners around the world. Teams of CIA experts worked feverishly to take down and reconfigure the websites secretly used for these communications; others managed operations to quickly spirit assets to safety and oversaw other forms of triage.
“When this was going on, it was all that mattered,” said one former intelligence community official. The situation was “catastrophic,” said another former senior intelligence official.
From around 2009 to 2013, the U.S. intelligence community experienced crippling intelligence failures related to the secret internet-based communications system, a key means for remote messaging between CIA officers and their sources on the ground worldwide. The previously unreported global problem originated in Iran and spiderwebbed to other countries, and was left unrepaired — despite warnings about what was happening — until more than two dozen sources died in China in 2011 and 2012 as a result, according to 11 former intelligence and national security officials.
The disaster ensnared every corner of the national security bureaucracy — from multiple intelligence agencies, congressional intelligence committees and independent contractors to internal government watchdogs — forcing a slow-moving, complex government machine to grapple with the deadly dangers of emerging technologies.
In a world where dependence on advanced technology may be a necessary evil for modern espionage, particularly in hostile regions where American officials can’t operate freely, such technical failures are an ever present danger and will only become more acute with time.
“When these types of compromises happen, it’s so dark and bad,” said one former official. “They can burrow in. It never really ends.”
A former senior intelligence official with direct knowledge of the compromise said it had global implications for the CIA. “You start thinking twice about people, from China to Russia to Iran to North Korea,” said the former official. The CIA was worried about its network “totally unwinding worldwide.”
Yahoo News’ reporting on this global communications failure is based on conversations with eleven former U.S. intelligence and government officials directly familiar with the matter who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive operations. Multiple former intelligence officials said that the damage from the potential global compromise was serious — even catastrophic — and will persist for years.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/cias-communications-suffered-catastrophic-compromise-started-iran-090018710.html
Obama failed to protect the 2016 according to Dems.
Today, President Trump has protected this 2018 Election, according to the Dems.
I used to live in Billings Montana.
They have an interesting history with more Democrats than usual for such a red state.
There is a large number of unionized workers in construction and coal mining companies. A lot of them are Registered Republicans. But far more than usual is they have to vote for Democrats. The polls show Tester is ahead within the margin of error.
He will be reelected.
The Native Americans lean left.
In North Dakota Senate Republicans are probably going to win. But the unknown factor is that Native Americans lean left and despite the Republicans attempt on their voting rights again have been trying to get past the address issue.
The Montanan's are not in general Trumpist. The educated women have already voted and will vote in big numbers.
I think that is the best reason IMO to understand why "That's over 300,000 early votes
335,552 votes were cast overall in 2016,"
The polls show Tester is ahead within the margin of error.
He will be reelected.
is anyone keeping track of the alky predictions?
someone probably should so we can go back and see how galactically wrong he was again this time.
The polls show Tester is ahead within the margin of error
by the way alky, not to pick a nit on your political pontificatory skills but...
...you do realize that if tester is polling WITHIN the MOE, it's a fucking TIE, right?
so, in fact, he is not as you said - AHEAD.
don't let the looney bin orderly see your comments. they'll never let you out.
rrb I was released from the hospital on Monday. One week after the surgery.
The Montanan's are not in general Trumpist.
He won the state by 21 points.
Here is Roger's six pack:
Six Pack
Blogger C.H. Truth said...
The Montanan's are not in general Trumpist.
He won the state by 21 points.
i think the alky threshold to be trumpist is 51%. or 22%. or somewhere in there.
LOL.
There have only been four pollster in Montana:
Two of them traditional pollsters
Two of them are interactive pollsters
Trafalgar - 50-49 Tester
Change Research - 49-46 Rosendale
Harris Interactive - 49-44 Tester
Gravis Interactive - 48-45 Tester
Alky;
"Alky
"The Democrats will win the house of delegates and a lot of governors. And depending upon what the millennium voters do might take the Senate majority ..."
He moved lower today, why Alky?"
Here is Roger's six pack:
Six Pack
You really have turned into a David Duke asshole Scotty.....ahout as funny as a hemorrhoid ......Keep voting....it is the R way!!! Cheating...
oger AmickNovember 5, 2018 at 9:25 AM
33 House Democrats seat pick increasingly likely.
The Senate majority the number of voters who wait until the election day is so volatile.
53 GOP but I could change my mind."
Lol
Roger is an idiot fence sitting queen.
Democrats will win.
No wait. Republicans will win.
No wait. I meant Democrats.
Perhaps Republicans.
are you nate or the alky?
Sums up Roger perfectly, CHT.
What time does WP show today?
i just voted. the place was packed, but felt like a nursing home. i was the youngest guy in the place by 20 years including the poll workers.
alky - you would have felt right at home. if there was one walker in the place there was a dozen.
REV, did alky , who said he is the healthiest person on this blog leave the hospital yet?
What was his medical issue?
Vote for Claire McCaskill, You Liberal Dipshits
Listen up, hippies: November 6 is not the primary. This is a real-ass election day. You can whine about how you’d like more choices or a viable third party or whatever, but if you are any type of lefty and you aren’t voting for Claire McCaskill, you are also a raging moron.
Your vote here matters. It carries real, heavy, possibly irreversible consequences. But yeah, you like to vote with your little bleeding heart, don’t you? Well, don’t worry, wimp! The good news is that you should totally be “voting your conscience” this time because your stupid conscience should be saying this to you: “Good gravy, Josh Hawley must not win! Anyone but Josh Hawley!”
And that means that your only real option is Claire McCaskill.
[...]
If you feel that you simply must express yourself, go paint a painting right after you check your fuckin' privilege, you precious little freethinker. The voting booth is not the place to try to make a grand gesture or pat yourself on the back or assert your moral superiority over the system: It’s the place where we go to hold off evil for as long as we can. Being a good voter is about being a responsible American who does what’s best for all of the people, not just what feeds your own self-righteous ego.
So vote for Claire McCaskill. And grow the fuck up.
Jaime Lees is the RFT's digital editor (and she's voting for McCaskill). Email her at jaime.lees@riverfronttimes.com
https://www.riverfronttimes.com/newsblog/2018/11/01/vote-for-claire-mccaskill-you-liberal-dipshits
i just voted. the place was packed, but felt like a nursing home. i was the youngest guy in the place by 20 years including the poll workers.
My poll worker was like a hundred. He couldn't find me in the system and kept asking me if I was registered. He must have tried at least one different manner to find me at least ten different times. The odd thing was that he really didn't want to "look" at my driver's license. Rather he kept asking me (over and over) what the first three letters of my last name was.
Another worker finally came over and told him to put in my date of birth and they found me right away.
It's one thing to not "require" a valid ID to vote, but it's quite another to pretend like it doesn't exist when you have one. I have to wonder if that is some sort of directive. Don't ask for or look at ID.
It's one thing to not "require" a valid ID to vote, but it's quite another to pretend like it doesn't exist when you have one. I have to wonder if that is some sort of directive. Don't ask for or look at ID.
the poll worker who checked me in sat there farting dust. rather than go through the last name spelling nonsense i just snapped my license right on top of her voter roll book. and i do it every election. it pisses them off but i enjoy being a bit of an asshole on election day considering my vote is outnumbered like 9-1 here in NY.
and to your point - one of the benefits of a voter ID in addition to verifying our identity is that it would move the fucking line probably twice as fast.
In Florida haveig a state issue ID speeds up the checkin process. In most case all they do is scan the strip on the card and ask you if you still live at that address, Then you electronically sign for your ballot.
The most unpopular voters in the place are the ones who didn't bring a state issued ID. They have the play 20 questions and swear an affidavit to get a provisional ballot. Usually to a chorus of boos since they slow up the line considerably.
Fox News says it "does not condone" its hosts "participating in campaign events" as Sean Hannity and Jeanine Pirro did during a campaign rally with President Trump in Missouri on Monday night.
A network spokesperson on Tuesday called the event "an unfortunate distraction" that "has been addressed."
"FOX News does not condone any talent participating in campaign events," read a statement to The Hill. "We have an extraordinary team of journalists helming our coverage tonight and we are extremely proud of their work. This was an unfortunate distraction and has been addressed."
Hannity took to Twitter to also address the controversial decision to appear on stage. The host had stated in a tweet earlier on Monday that he would not do so, and wrote on Tuesday afternoon he was surprised but honored by the president's request.
"What I said in my tweet yesterday was 100% truthful," he wrote to his more than 3.8 million followers. "When the POTUS invited me on stage to give a few remarks last night, I was surprised, yet honored by the president's request. This was NOT planned."
Early during his remarks at the Show Me Center in Cape Girardeau, Hannity pointed to the press holding area and said, "All those people in the back are fake news," which included journalists from Fox News covering the event.
"To be clear, I was not referring to my journalist colleagues at FOX News in those remarks," Hannity wrote in a subsequent tweet. "They do amazing work day in and day out in a fair and balanced way and It is an honor to work with such great professionals."
Hannity, a staunch advocate of the president, once appeared in a campaign ad for then-candidate Trump in Sept. 2016, which also drew a rebuke from the network.
"We were not aware of Sean Hannity participating in a promotional video and he will not be doing anything along these lines for the remainder of the election season," a network spokesperson said in a statement to The Hill at the time.
Sean Hannity has a elected President when Trump and the Russians won the electoral college victory. (Smirking)
that's nice, alky.
The most unpopular voters in the place are the ones who didn't bring a state issued ID. They have the play 20 questions and swear an affidavit to get a provisional ballot. Usually to a chorus of boos since they slow up the line considerably.
their voting machine needs to be set up in a handicapped restroom stall with a backed up toilet.
next time they'll bring the ID.
one of the benefits of a voter ID in addition to verifying our identity is that it would move the fucking line probably twice as fast. "
Yep, not been a problem since Kansas ID law was passed. D.L. or State issued I.D., bar coded info on back gets scanned and into the booth with a paper ballot. Done.
Small community like mine I know three of the poll officials by name and they know me. One lives a mile away, you know, a neighbor.
I saw cut n paste spammed and ran.
one of the benefits of a voter ID in addition to verifying ineligible voters like the 3 million or so that trump claimed 2 years ago....seems a rather BS claim...
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