The current GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.8 percent, up from 2.6 percent on January 3. The nowcasts of fourth-quarter real consumer spending growth and fourth-quarter real private fixed investment growth increased from 3.6 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively, to 3.8 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively, after the employment situation release by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, January 4.
If this number stands (or goes up) - it should push the 2018 fiscal year GDP growth to at least a flat 3 percent. Whether or not it actually hits 3.0 (or ends up at 2.9) is a matter of significant rhetorical value. After all, it was Obama, his supporters, and all of the Keynesian economists who suggested that 3 percent was no longer possible.
So the difference between 2.9 and 3.0 will determine who gets to say "I told you so".
All that being said, the last time we hit anywhere near 2.9 the Feds had already pushed the rates down to basically nothing. That was like riding bike with a tailwind. So the very same 2.9 (during a year that saw four straight interest rate rises) would actually be like riding that same bike straight into a head wind. Obviously it is an accomplishment to garner the same result riding into the headwinds, as the previous economy saw with the significant tailwind.
35 comments:
Cool.
Even cooler.
A new Public Policy Polling survey finds that voters disagree with President Trump’s demand for border wall funding by double-digit margins in seven key Senate swing states.
In Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Maine and North Carolina, voters disagree with Trump by double-digit margins that “government should be kept closed until he gets funding for the wall.”
“Voters also oppose spending billions to construct a border wall along the U.S.-Mexico border in all seven states, though those numbers are a bit closer. And voters in all seven states say by double-digit margins that their Republican senator’s support of Trump on this issue is making them less, not more, likely to vote for their reelection.”
Also cool.
Pelosi Says Trump Wants a Distraction, Not a Wall
Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said that President Trump’s border wall push has nothing to do with border security, but is instead designed to energize his conservative base and distract the country from the various scandals dogging his administration, The Hill reports.
Said Pelosi: “I don’t even know if the president wants the wall. I think he just wants a debate on the wall. And he’s having some difficulty with it.”
Mark Morgan, a career FBI official who served as Border Patrol chief for the last six months of the Obama administration before being removed once President Trump took office, has come out this week in support of a border wall.
Morgan, who has kept a low profile since he was forced to step down, first gave an interview to Law and Crime in which he defended the White House’s desire to build a wall along the U.S. southern border.
The morning after Trump reiterated in a prime-time address to the nation why wall funding was worth shutting down 25 percent of the federal government, Morgan told The Fix that he’s breaking his silence because, in his view, the wall is an important piece in a group of policy changes needed to secure the border.
“I was removed. I’m standing up and saying, ‘I should have disdain for them, but I don’t because they are right,' " Morgan said. “I can stand up and say they are right because it’s the right thing to do for this country. I’m begging the president to stay the course.”
And even cooler and on topic GDP rising faster than first expected !
Excellent !!!
Public Policy Polling
No one pays attention to Carville's polling outfit, you idiot
A new Public Policy Polling survey finds
i'll see your PPP survey and raise you a survey monkey poll.
imbecile.
GDP is the topic. So sad some are unable to focus.
Good news. GDP increase helps all Americans.
Even hotter than hell.
Communist scientists have been saying that the climate change is real.
Scientists say the warming of the world’s oceans is accelerating more quickly than previously thought, a finding with dire implications for climate change given that the vast majority of the heat trapped by greenhouse gases ends up stored there.
A new analysis, published Thursday in the journal Science, found that the oceans are heating up 40 percent faster than the United Nations estimated five years ago. The researchers also concluded that ocean temperatures have broken records for several straight years.
“2018 is going to be the warmest year on record for the Earth’s oceans,” said Zeke Hausfather, an energy systems analyst at the independent climate research group Berkeley Earth and an author of the study. “As 2017 was the warmest year, and 2016 was the warmest year.”
As the planet has warmed, the oceans have provided a critical buffer, slowing the effects of climate change by absorbing 93 percent of the heat trapped by human greenhouse gas emissions. But the escalating water temperatures are already killing off marine ecosystems, raising sea levels and making hurricanes more destructive.
Ocean Warming Is Accelerating Faster Than Thought, New Research Finds https://nyti.ms/2H8iWvk
So there is a thread on the economy...
James cuts and pastes about the wall.
Roger cuts and pastes about global warming.
Cognitive dissonance doesn't even allow them to follow a thread.
The GDP news is devastating .
Blogger C.H. Truth said...
So there is a thread on the economy...
James cuts and pastes about the wall.
Roger cuts and pastes about global warming.
well, after 8 long financially devastating years of 0linsky can you blame them for wanting to change the subject?
Nope. They have to run to off topic dumb shit.
Mueller Probes Public Statements as Effort to Obstruct
“As special counsel Robert Mueller wraps up his Russia probe, investigators have focused on conflicting public statements by President Trump and his team that could be seen as an effort to influence witnesses and obstruct justice,” CNN reports.
“The line of questioning adds to indications that Mueller views false or misleading statements to the press or to the public as obstruction of justice… Mueller hasn’t addressed the issue publicly, but prosecutors have dropped hints that they view public statements as possibly key in influencing witnesses.”
Cohen Will Testify BEFORE CONGRESS
President Trump’s former personal attorney Michael Cohen will testify voluntarily before the House Oversight Committee on Feb. 7, CNBC reports.
New York Times: “Mr. Cohen’s decision to appear before the House Oversight and Reform Committee on Feb. 7 sets the stage for a blockbuster public hearing that threatens to further damage the president’s image and could clarify the depth of his legal woes. Mr. Cohen, a consigliere to Mr. Trump when he was a real estate developer and presidential candidate as well as informally as president, was privy to the machinations of Mr. Trump’s inner circle and key moments under scrutiny by both the special counsel, Robert Mueller, and federal prosecutors in New York.
“He could soon share them ON NATIONAL TELEVISION UNDER OATH."
First two years under Pro Business, Pro growth, America First , President Trump is running circles around 8 years of the Lost Years .
My opinion on the economy in the next year or so. The tarrifs imposed are actually a tax on Americans, because the higher prices on products and food products come from our pockets. We have to eat, so we won't reduce demand. But on the clothing and so many things come from China will go up.
The Chinese economy is slowing down. So even the few things we sell there will face lower demand.
Bloomberg and other sources say the economy will slow down. If it doesn't get below 2.25% we will have a good but not robust economy.
Late last year Fortune was a little bit less negative for late 2018. They don't predict a recession in 2020.
But the President and his wall issues are the wild card.
The good economic news for 2019 is that the odds are still against the U.S. economy entering a recession. The bad news, according to many economists, is a series of economic forecasts that calls for growth to not only be slower in the U.S., but also globally.
2018 has been a banner year for economic growth, with the U.S. gross domestic product rising at an annual pace of 3.5% in the third quarter and at 4.2% in the second quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Statistics. The economy has been firing on most of its cylinders, as consumers spent more, companies invested in inventories, and local governments maintained their spending, the BEA said.
As economists crunch the numbers for their 2019 forecasts, however, they are expecting a slowdown. Goldman drew some attention this week after it said U.S. GDP growth will slow to 1.8% in the third quarter of 2019 and to 1.6% during the fourth quarter. The positive impact of the tax cuts passed in late 2017 will fade while financial conditions will tighten, Goldman predicted.
____
The chaos in the White House and his demands for his worthless fucking wall is going to get foreign investors very nervous.
We could be facing a Constitutional crisis, and if that happens all the projections are going to reach a Deeper Recession than the Bush recession.
By the way Scottie, global warming is going to be a major economic disaster in the future 25 years of so. If the major cities with large harbours are going to be in great danger.
That's why I posted the comment on global warming warnings.
That is what the Left said in the 60's and 70's.
Peak oil
Zero population growth
And dozens of other failed b.s. prediction.
World wide famine
Food inflation cost The Lost Years average.
1.65%
President Trump first two years. 1.3 %.
Alky, you where saying?
Alky is the blog economic fucking rock.
"If it doesn't get below 2.25% we will have a good but not robust economy."
Yet, you loved The Lost Years at 1.88 % .
As for tax cuts the 2nd part is now kicking in. As tax filing season gets going and bigger refund checks arrive.
Democratic socialist” Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) has been fined by the State of New York for failing to carry workers’ compensation insurance for a month during her congressional campaign last year."
Failed Economics and common compassion for her workers.
The New York Daily News reportedThursday:
“The employer did not have the required workers’ compensation coverage from March 31, 2018, to April 30, 2018, and was issued a final penalty of $1,500, which was paid,” state Workers Compensation Board spokeswoman Melissa Stewart said. “This coverage is vital to ensuring workers are protected for on-the-job injuries.”
Coast Guard families told they can have garage sales to cope with government shutdown.
Donald J. Trump
✔
@realDonaldTrump
Just left a meeting with Chuck and Nancy, a total waste of time. I asked what is going to happen in 30 days if I quickly open things up, are you going to approve Border Security which includes a Wall or Steel Barrier? Nancy said, NO. I said bye-bye, nothing else works!
Trump right again
Yep
Alky unable to stick with the thread topic. He is a economic and financial block head.
If this number stands (or goes up) - it "C"ould push the 2018 fiscal year GDP growth to at least a flat 3 percent.
And pigs could learn to fly!!!!!
Another opinion for 2019 from kilplinger...
Growth was a solid 3.4% in the third quarter following a strong second quarter gain of 4.2%. Fourth-quarter growth should also be good, around 2.8%. However, quarterly growth in 2019 will likely be much lower, leaving a yearly average of 2.5%,
IOW's growth is down 33% from the 2nd quarter aberrations.....
By the way Scottie, global warming is going to be a major
So what....he and the others are complacent in their stupidity and don't care because they won't be affected.....maybe rat hole can explain why ocean levels rise when their temperature goes up without having Arctic Ice melting.....LOLOLOLOL
Who's thoughts will Alky steal today?
(Bloomberg) -- Economists put the risk of a U.S. recession at the highest in more than six years amid mounting dangers from financial markets, a trade war with China and the federal-government shutdown.
Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg over the past week see a median 25 percent chance of a slump in the next 12 months, up from 20 percent in the December survey. The Federal Reserve is now projected to keep interest rates steady in the first quarter, instead of raising them, before two increases total this year -- down from four moves in 2018.
The median projection for 2019 economic growth edged down to 2.5 percent following 2.9 percent in 2018 as the boost from fiscal stimulus fades. Growth is still expected to be buoyed by a strong jobs market, rising wages and some lingering effects of tax cuts. If the expansion that began in 2009 lasts until July, it would mark 10 years and become the country’s longest on record.
“It’s not our call that there’s a recession coming soon by any means, but financial conditions have tightened materially over the past two months, you have ongoing trade issues that are weighing on global growth, and you’re seeing business confidence waning a bit,” said Brett Ryan, a U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank AG. “The government shutdown weighs on business confidence and could weigh on consumer confidence.”
Ryan gave a 20 percent chance of recession, up from 12 percent in the December survey.
Analysts generally expect the partial government shutdown -- which President Donald Trump said could last for months if not years, and is now in its third week -- to weaken quarterly economic growth by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points every one to two weeks it drags on.
It’s already affecting projections. On Thursday, JPMorgan Chase & Co. chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli cut his first-quarter growth forecast to a 2 percent annualized pace from 2.25 percent, citing the shutdown.
The shutdown has also delayed government data releases, such as retail sales and inventories, that investors and analysts use to assess the state of the economy. That puts more focus on companies such as retailers Macy’s Inc. and Kohl’s Corp., who gave disappointing reports on Thursday. Other figures from Johnson Redbook Research showed retail sales rising in recent weeks.
Less optimism among consumers would build on financial-market concern about a broader slowdown. Sectors where interest rates have been rising, such as the auto industry, will likely take a hit, according to Barclays Plc chief U.S. economist Michael Gapen.
Blogger KD said...
Who's thoughts will Alky steal today?
cheering for recession, apparently.
a whopping 25% chance, no less.
for those of you keeping score at home, that means that there's a 75% chance there WILL NOT be a recession in the next 12 months.
what do you think, alky? will we see a run on the banks today on this news?
oh, and here's the plagiarized link:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-11/u-s-recession-risk-hits-six-year-high-amid-trade-war-shutdown
oh, and here's the plagiarized link:
Hey asswipe...he cited the source...why do you say it is plagiarized since the source is there??????
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