- Donald Trump 3-2
- Joe Biden 8-1
- Amy Klobuchar 11-1
- Bernie Sanders 11-1
- Beto O'Rourke 11-1
- Kamala Harris 11-1
- Cory Booker 33-1
- Elizabeth Warren 33-1
- Kirsten Gillibrand 33-1
- GOP primary challenger 150-1
- Mike Pence 200-1
- John Kickenlooper 200-1
- Pete Buttigieg 500-1
- Howard Schultz 500-1
- Julian Castro 500-1
At this point I believe that that President's odds are at around 40% . While this is probably low for an incumbent President, there are too many unknowns to put it any higher. There could be a surprise in the Mueller report. The economy could tank in 2020. Trump could get a real GOP challenger that splits the Party. Any number of things could derail him.
At this point, there really isn't any Democrat who would run away with the race. I believe Biden is the clear frontrunner, but it's not clear that he is going to run. While everyone expects him to run (and believe it's just a matter of time) the reality is that he still hasn't committed, and there has to be an underlying reason for that (other than just being coy).
I would slide Klobuchar, O'Rourke, Harris, and Sanders into that second group. Sanders is polling better than the rest, and may break away from this field if that continues. Klobuchar is my personal dark horse. Sort that candidate who will neither excite or rub anyone wrong. A moderate with a limited record to pour over.
Booker, Warren, Gillibrand fall into the next group of candidates. These are long shots, but have enough name recognition and accomplishment to gather momentum. Some may argue that Warren should be higher, but I think instinctively everyone knows that Trump would "love" to run against Pocahontas. Will the left really give the President what he wants?
After that, you are looking at true longshots. A GOP primary challenger defeating Trump? Trump being removed from office and Pence running as the incumbent? Howard Schultz with a successful third Party run? Someone with almost no national name recognition?
It's still early and nobody probably predicted either Obama or Trump at this point in thee 2008 or 2016 campaign. So this is just a best guess.
4 comments:
Actually 5/2 odds converts to a .28 percent chance of winning (2/7)
https://www.bettingexpert.com/academy/advanced-betting-theory/odds-conversion-to-percentage
I think 40% is 3/2
not that I'm a professional gambler...
No way beto is up with Bernie and kamala.
And klobuchar is gillibrand in a different suit
Morning Consult just did a big poll, over 53,000 republic voters. 85% still support Trump. There's that silent support again. Most of the media, along with the bill kristols of the world, refuse to acknowledge this.
I think 40% is 3/2
You are correct!
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