Now according to 538, and a rather complicated model, grid, spreadsheet, etc... there was some pretty significant movement. Most notably from Harris (up), and Biden (down). I agree that Harris will get a bump, and Biden might falter a little. But whether or not other polling confirms the large movement that Silver sees is up for grabs.
Of course, Nate Silver spends about 20,000 words and has a dozen or so graphs and charts explaining what happened during the two debates. If you want to go check that out, please do over at 538 (fivethirtyeight.com/the-first-democratic-debate-in-five-charts/). It's generally worth the read for most people who understand these sorts of things.
But if you want the bottom line in how voter preferences were affected:
Kamala Harris - increase of 8.7%
Bernie Sanders - increase of 2.9%
Liz Warren - increase of 1.8%
Spartacus Booker - decrease 0.2%
Pete Buttigieg - decrease 1%
Beto O'Rourke - decrease 1.4%
Joe Biden - decrease 10%
These are the top seven. None of the others (Castro, Yang, Klobuchar, Gabbard, Ryan, De Blasio, Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, Delaney, Inslee, Bennett, Williamson, & Swalwell) really moved themselves into contention. Their support (according to 538) all falls below the two percent that will be needed to move into the second debate.
That being said, I would still look for a few of those in the second tier to possibly make the second debate, considering that they only need to get 2% in "some" polling and continue to draw donors.
UPDATE: The first official post-debate poll (Politico/Morning Consult) came out and showed Biden dropping from 38% to 33%. Harris's support doubled (from 6% to 12%). Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, and Booker stayed pretty much where they were at. Beto dropped from 4% down to 2% and would appear to have joined the second tier that will be fighting for a shot at the second debate(s).
Morning Consult was also the pollster working with 538, but obviously this poll was commissioned a bit differently.
6 comments:
Voter preference changes from the debates:
Now according to 538, and a rather complicated model
Shocking, Lil Scotty discovers people changing their minds.....I'd never figure it out on my own......BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!
Who gained the most Twitter followers?
Change in Twitter followers from the afternoon before each candidate debated to the afternoon after their debate night
NO. OF TWITTER FOLLOWERS
DEBATE NIGHT CANDIDATE BEFORE DEBATE INCREASE
2 Harris 2,729,541 59,588
–
1 Castro 220,987 54,886
–
2 Buttigieg1,160,106 40,209
Harris has 2,729,541 followers
We both pale in comparison
Harris has 2,729,541 followers
that's a lot of free-loading parasites.
Harris has the most Russian created Twitter account followers.
A new government report shows the United States crude oil output as reaching new heights in the month of April.
The report said production grew from 2.1 percent in April to 12.16 million barrels a day. Shale production in areas such as the Permian Basin of West Texas have recently experienced a boom, causing U.S. oil production to overtake that of Saudi Arabia and Russia.
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