Upcoming Horowitz Report.

So there have been several leaks and reports about the upcoming Horowitz report. One one hand, there is plenty of speculation that the report will show serious problems with how the entire Russian probe was handled. This speculation is enhanced by the reality that Barr assigned a criminal prosecutor (Durham) to deal with some of the reported issues, as well as the known reality that it was officially designated to be a criminal probe.

On the other hand, we have had many recent reports (or at least one report repeated many times) that suggests that Horowitz will find some mishandling of things at the rank and file level, but that he will fail to find either any issues with the leadership or with any sort of actual bias coming from those in charge. This would be basically the same exact manner in which the internal investigation of the IRS went down. Sure, there was bias and problems, but it took place at a very low level, and we got rid of the bad apples. Nothing to see at the top.

There is a part of me that finds it difficult to believe that the IG would hand in a 500 page report, the DOJ would assign a new prosecutor to work with the IG,  that they would change the probe to be criminal by definition, all for the sake of prosecuting one low level employee who changed an email. That seems to be better than the best case scenario that most people would logically conclude from what we know for fact. Especially since we already know that the IG has recommended other criminal charges (that had not been pursued by the previous prosecutor assigned).

On the flip side, there is a ton of historical evidence that suggests these sorts of internal investigations never actually get past a couple of low level fall people who end up being charged, while those in charge and in real leadership positions are given a pass. It wouldn't be inconsistent for Durham to charge one or two people that nobody has heard of, while the IG report will basically say things may have skirted some policies, didn't necessarily use best practices, but that no "criminal acts" were committed by those at the top.

I think it's also important to note that the investigation into Russian interference is completely separate from the investigation into any Trump coordination. It's entirely possible that the IG concludes that the FBI was entirely justified in how they handled the Russian probe, while simultaneously seeing problems with the portion of that probe that dealt with Trump and his campaign. One of the liberal gas-lighting ploys is to attempt to join the two into one probe, where proof of the former somehow justifies a lack of prove of the latter. So we should be careful to view any "reports" that focus on the Russian interference portion of the conclusions as potentially being misleading.

If you put a gun to my head, I would offer that anyone hoping to see Comey, McCabe, Strzok, or Page going to jail will be disappointed. But anyone who is believing that Horowitz spent all this time and wrote a 500 page report to say that there was nothing wrong (other than a single low level employee changing some documents) is engaging in wishful thinking.