A scientist who warned that the coronavirus would kill 500,000 people in the United Kingdom has revised the estimate to roughly 20,000 people or fewer. Scientist and Imperial College author Neil Ferguson said Wednesday that the coronavirus death toll is unlikely to exceed 20,000 and could be much lower, according to New Scientist. He added that he is “reasonably confident” that Britain’s health system can handle the burden of treating coronavirus patients.
This isn't just "any" scientist, the study from the Imperial College is what prompted Boris Johnson to shut down his country. In fact, many have used this particular Imperial College study as the justification gold standard for shutting things down. Now we are being told that rather than a half million in the UK and over two million in the US... well... it may just be another flu season.
I am not going to get into the whats and hows of what prompted this "revision" other than to say that the further we get into this, the less it becomes about "theories" or "statistical modeling" and the more it becomes about actually analyzing the reality and creating real data driven predictions.
Imagine how things work on an election night. You start off with little more than exit polling and then as you get real time results, you start to adjust the exit polling to make it more inline with what you are seeing. If results closely mirror the exit polling, you get a quick call. If the results are not in line with the exit polling, then it can be a long night. But eventually the analysts are able to merge the two data points together to make a more solid prediction.
Over the past several weeks, all we had on the coronavirus was theories and modeling (polling). Over the next two to three weeks we will start to get real time results (vote counting). What these scientists and statisticians will be doing is trying to tie together the theories/modeling with the known data until the two eventually converge into predictions that everyone can agree on with some degree of confidence.
54 comments:
And trump said the 15 cases would soon be zero and the spring will bring a miraculous end to the epidemic and promised 3% GDP and great health care.....and the worthless piece of shit lil Schitty breaks ballz on an errant prediction while sucking on trumps fat old white ass!!!!!!!
Many Businesses Cautious About Re-opening Too Soon
March 26, 2020 at 3:32 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 70 Comments
Associated Press: “Despite wild swings in financial markets and signs that unemployment is surging — both of which could hurt Trump in an election year — many businesses say it’s not clear that reopening will be even an option in a few weeks: They have to follow the orders set in each state, and many of those are open ended or could be extended at any time. They are worried that opening too soon could be seen as irresponsible. And even if they did reopen, would customers come if the virus isn’t under control?”
Trump Shuns War Powers to Ramp Up Virus Supplies
March 26, 2020 at 1:48 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 128 Comments
“As hospitals, health-care staff and governors clamor for ventilators, intensive-care beds, and protective gear, President Trump and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce are opposing the one thing many say would do the most good in the fight against the runaway coronavirus pandemic: Activate the Defense Production Act to coordinate a war-like effort to ramp up the manufacture and distribution of critical supplies,” Bloomberg reports.
“More than 100 former national security officials urged Trump in a letter Wednesday to use the act’s authority, saying it was necessary that government coordinate the effort and assign priorities to confront the crisis. Trade groups, governors, attorneys general and Democratic senators are lodging similar calls.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
March 26, 2020 at 3:23 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 39 Comments
“Listen to the science. Do your part and take care of each other.”
— Barack Obama, in an Instagram chat with basketball star Steph Curry and Dr. Anthony Fauci.
Jobless Claims May Be Vast Undercount
March 26, 2020 at 3:17 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 29 Comments
“The 3.3 million new unemployment insurance claims that the Labor Department reported Thursday is likely a significant undercount, experts say, because laid-off workers have been calling into state unemployment agencies much faster than the agencies can process their requests,” Politico reports.
“A tidal wave of workers trying to file claims has overwhelmed websites and jammed phone lines at state unemployment agencies, leaving states scrambling to hire more staff.”
Trump Revising Social Distancing Guidelines
March 26, 2020 at 2:17 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 227 Comments
In new letter to governors, President Trump says his administration is revising social distancing guidelines and working to classify counties as high-risk, medium-risk, or low-risk.
U.S. to Take Stakes in Airlines in Exchange for Grants
March 26, 2020 at 1:56 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 42 Comments
Wall Street Journal: “Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin indicated that the U.S. government would take stakes in airline carriers in exchange for billions in direct grants to the companies, part of a $2 trillion economic rescue package.
“He detailed his plans during last-minute negotiations when the aid to airlines emerged as a major sticking point. Republicans had rejected providing cash grants to airlines, and an earlier version of the legislation would have provided $50 billion in loans and loan guarantees to passenger airlines and $8 billion to cargo airlines—but no direct aid.”
House GOP Tries to Quash Dissent on Relief Bill
March 26, 2020 at 1:54 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 27 Comments
Playbook:
“The House GOP leadership says there are some lawmakers who will be in Washington for Friday’s vote on the emergency coronavirus bill that passed the Senate last night. They are going to try hard to quash dissent, and any effort to call for a roll call vote on the legislation, and they say they will involve President Trump and senior White House officials should they need to. Republicans have a conference call at 1:30 p.m. today.”
Also on second thought
If you back out the media and Biden's campaign staff how many people do you have left of the 2-3 hundred people who connected to his livestream the other day ?
Asking for a friend.
Also was one of them his buddy Barack ?
Anonymous JAMES'S FUCKING DADDY said...
Also on second thought
BWAAAAAAAAA!!!!! No doubt anymore that the fucking idiot daddy has proved that he and his feckless leader are the leaders of stupidity!!!!!!!
Heidi Shierholz
@hshierholz
Initial UI claims, this time with recession-shading. Stunning how this simply dwarfs the Great Recession.
Graph: https://twitter.com/hshierholz/status/1243157938304438276
Now why was Nancy absent last week again? Must have been VERY important and laser focused on helping here.
btw in graph format to try and help lo iq understand.
btw = by the way lo iq
Gee Lil Schitty.....got MSNBC and CNN on....they are both covering the latest presser you lying sack of dog shit!!!!!!!!
BTW....fucking daddy the walking retard again proves he is an abject trump loser and would rather suck donnie's dick that is stuck in his ass!!!!! BWAAAAAAA!!!! Nancy will have a vote tomorrow....why did it take mitch 4 days to get a unanimous vote you dumb fuck????
Hey fucking daddy........critical shortages of masks which trump promised millions and millions were available!!!!!!! Why are there no masks?????? Why do you support this moron???????
Why are there no masks?????
the goonions miraculously found 39 million, no inventory control
What these scientists and statisticians will be doing is trying to tie together the theories/modeling with the known data until the two eventually converge into predictions that everyone can agree on with some degree of confidence.
and what that will end up looking like is something like the huff po's 98% election eve certainty that hillary would win with the reality of a trump victory.
this whole thing ends up being the most epic over-reaction in the history of the known universe.
Like ballot boxes in November
Why are there no masks?????
skeets never backfilled what they used during H1N1.
this ain't rocket science, dumb fuck.
Like ballot boxes in November
that liberals will use this shitshow to try and steal 2020 is an absolute certainty.
It is time to ostracize China, from the rest of the world
Spain, Europe's worst-hit country after Italy, says coronavirus tests it bought from China are failing to detect positive cases
U.S. Now Leads the World in Coronavirus Cases
March 26, 2020 at 5:17 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 108 Comments
“Scientists warned that the United States someday would become the country hardest hit by the coronavirus pandemic. That moment arrived on Thursday,” the New York Times reports.
“In the United States, at least 81,321 people are known to have been infected with the coronavirus, including more than 1,000 deaths — more cases than China, Italy or any other country has seen.”
Pederast why did you copy and paste provably wrong shit from teagan on the other thread then run and hide?
James other then hoping Church going Americans would die "culling the herd".
Care to revise your hope for "400,000"
American deaths?
"Caliphate4vrMarch 26, 2020 at 4:59 PM
It is time to ostracize China, from the rest of the world"
Agree
‘Why Are You Wasting Everyone’s Time?’
March 26, 2020 at 4:47 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 111 Comments
Brianna Keilar absolutely shredded Peter Navarro in a CNN interview, telling him he’s “wasting everyone’s time” when he tries to blame former President Barack Obama for the administration not being prepared for the coronavirus crisis.
Said Keilar: “It’s 2020. The president was elected in 2016. Can you get to a million ventilators?”
When Navarro attempted to blame China for the coronavirus outbreak, she said “that’s ridiculous” and ended the interview.
Rescue Bill Includes BONANZA for Real Estate Investors
March 26, 2020 at 4:41 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 60 Comments
New York Times:
“The federal government’s planned $2 trillion economic rescue package includes financial aid for individuals and industries that are struggling to survive the coronavirus pandemic. It also includes a potential bonanza for America’s richest real estate investors.”
“Senate Republicans inserted an easy-to-overlook provision on page 203 of the 880-page bill that would permit wealthy investors to use losses generated by real estate to minimize their taxes on profits from things like investments in the stock market. The estimated cost of the change over 10 years is $170 billion.”
REPUBLICANS ALWAYS LOOK OUT FOR THEIR BIG BOYS.
Governors Seeking Help Must Navigate Trump
March 26, 2020 at 5:32 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 55 Comments
Associated Press: “Underlying this political dance is Trump’s tendency to talk about the government as though it’s his own private business. The former real estate mogul often discusses government business like a transaction dependent on relationships or personal advantage, rather than a national obligation… Trump has kept a close eye on the coronavirus media coverage and noted which local officials were praising or criticizing him.”
“There’s no evidence that Trump has held up a governor’s request for assistance for personal or political reasons. Still aides say it’s understood that governors who say nice things about the federal response are more likely to be spared public criticism from the White House or threats of withheld assistance.”
JUST REMEMBER, GOVERNORS, BIG BROTHER IS WATCHING YOU.
"MyPillow shifting 75% of production to make face masks for hospitals"
The Owner is a Trump supporter, the kind of Man , Boi James wants dead.
Experts keep telling Trump that cutting back on social distancing will lead to significantly more deaths.
Are you hoping your "400,000" US deaths?
My Home Depot Stock paid a higher then expected $1.50 per share. As always the dividend is reinvested into buying ever more Stock.
James, you were saying ? ππ
"Cuomo: Not sure if closing all businesses, keeping everyone home was 'the best public health strategy'"
πIn a press conference in Albany, Cuomo said the smartest way forward would be a public health strategy that complemented a “get-back-to-work strategy.”
“What we did was we closed everything down. That was our public health strategy. Just close everything, all businesses, old workers, young people, old people, short people, tall people,” said Cuomo. “Every school closed, everything.”
“If you rethought that or had time to analyze that public health strategy, I don't know that you would say quarantine everyone,” Cuomo admitted. “I don't even know that that was the best public health policy. Young people then quarantined with older people was probably not the best public health strategy because the younger people could have been exposing the older people to an infection. “
πJane
See what I just posted regarding Johns Hopkins Institute on the next thread down.
It, not I, gives you a royal π.
Michigan Can’t Get Supplies As Cases Explode
March 26, 2020 at 7:33 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 26 Comments
“The number of coronavirus cases in Michigan has skyrocketed to nearly 3,000 from less than 350 a week ago, but the state is still struggling to obtain supplies behind the states where the pandemic has hit the hardest,” CNN reports.
“As the pandemic takes hold elsewhere, the finite number of live-saving equipment like ventilators, face masks and personal protective equipment — as well as the inability of the national stockpile to make up for all of the shortages — is coming into clear view, leaving a gap between states that encountered outbreaks early and those that are seeing their numbers ramp up now.”
Alabama Won’t Issue Shelter-In-Place Order
March 26, 2020 at 7:30 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 73 Comments
Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey said she had no plans to issue a stay at home or shelter-in-place order any time soon, the Montgomery Advertiser reports.
Said Ivey: “Y’all, we are not Louisiana, we are not New York State, we are not California. Right now is not the time to order people to shelter in place.”
_____________
He better hope he's right.
NYTimes daily record of number of cases and deaths in the USA
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
Scroll down below the map and see the chart:
Number of cases reported March 22 -- a little over 10,000
Number of cases reported March 23 -- slightly more over 10,000
Number of cases reported March 25 -- a little over 14,000!!!!!!!!!!!!
Where are the Open Borders Liberals?
James the golish behavior, so sick.
"gives you a royal π."
James has lost it.
Too funny.
Why did rrb and Kansas Dim run away
from the Johns Hopkins matter
in the next thread down?
Jordan Schachtel
@JordanSchachtel
Dr. Birx update:
-Says early models (from Imperial College UK) were emphatically wrong (ahem, doomsday preachers)
-No health care system in US right now is overwhelmed. Pros are handling it.
-No exponential/rapid growth.
-55% of cases in NYC metro area.
and of course with greatly increased testing the number of cases will rise. guess if we tested no one we would have zero cases reported. So for any real context the cases reported has to have tests performed to have any significance and really should also indicate how many of these test were conducted on symptomatic individuals vs non.
Probably to logical for waterboys to understand so keep screaming like a banshee. People do social distance from you even on blogs.
ROFLMFAO !!!
* too
** people generally ignore your shit
*** ROFLMFAO !!!
Brit Hume
@brithume
Key point from Dr. Birx in WH Coronavirus briefing: the number of new cases in hard-hit New York City has been level for the past thee days. This suggests that the efforts to “flatten the curve” are having an effect. Imperative to continue them, she says.
Ok, for NY.
Why did De Blasio fuck it up?
James, no one Ran.
You are so boring. I don't read your spam.
Feel better now that I gave you some attention?
Isaiah 26:20 - Go, my people, enter you
Go, my people, enter your rooms and shut the doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until his wrath has passed"
Ok, but only until.Easter.
This is news to πJames.
Goat fucker can't sleep wondering what his leader will fuck up next....Maybe obama's using masks 10 years ago caused this crisis!!!!!!
The governor of Michigan just ban prescribing hydrochloroquine for the coronavirus. People in Michigan will die but she sure showed up Trump!! π
bannED
What do you get when you have a meglomaniac for a a president?
This is what you get:
Advisers Steer Trump Away from Easter Deadline
March 27, 2020 at 8:31 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 41 Comments
“Believing the worst is yet to come, some top advisers to President Trump are struggling to steer him away from Easter as an arbitrary deadline for much of the nation to reopen,” Axios reports.
“But Trump is far from chastened.”
Said a top official: “I don’t think he feels in any way that his messaging was off. He feels more convinced than ever that America needs to get back to work.”
A VOICE OF SANITY:
Maybe It’s Just Incompetence
March 27, 2020 at 8:26 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 46 Comments
Jonathan Bernstein is puzzled by the White House suddenly calling off a venture to produce as many as 80,000 ventilators and President Trump’s comments last night questioning the need for so many.
“Look: I’ve tried to be slow to criticize the substance of the administration’s reaction to the unfolding disaster. I’ve pointed out more than once that these situations are difficult, that experts themselves often disagree on the correct steps to take, and that perfection is an unfair standard by which to judge any president. I could add that while the U.S. has been hard hit, it’s far from the only nation where the coronavirus has spread. I’ve been tough on Trump mainly for his crisis communications, which are easier to judge on face value than something like getting tests into the field, and on the bureaucratic structure of his response.
“But every time he does something like this, it lends support to the idea that he and his closest aides are butchering the response out of sheer incompetence, even as the few qualified experts involved are desperately trying to drag them back on course.”
Said a top official
ah yes, those mythical, mysterious, anonymous top officials...
...without whom there would be no fake news. top officials. the very backbone of our government.
thank God for top officials.
they're TOPS in my book.
π James, why are cursing , what triggered you to lose all control?
The White House breathlessly announces that 40,000 respirators are on the way, and when this proves undoable, Trump goes on Hannity and says something really brilliant like this:
“I have a feeling that a lot of the numbers that are being said in some areas are just bigger than they’re going to be. I don’t believe you need 40,000 or 30,000 ventilators. You go into major hospitals sometimes, and they’ll have two ventilators. And now all of a sudden they’re saying, ‘Can we order 30,000 ventilators?"
AND THE SLURPERS SLURP THIS UP.
Recently it was reported that an 88 year old man needed a respirator and when it came down to whether only he or a 40 year old man could get one, he gave up his for the younger, and died.
"top official" Got name.
Cuomo said " We CAN go back to work"
Notice how James and Dopie have Zero Separation in their Tone and Lauguage.
Most Think Trump Should Have Responded Sooner
March 27, 2020 at 9:07 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 28 Comments
Like other recent surveys, a new Fox News poll finds President Trump’s approval rating ticking up to 48% to 51%.
However, here’s a hint at whether voters will blame Trump for the disruption caused by the coronavirus pandemic:
“By a 53% to 34% margin, more believe a quicker response from the federal government could have slowed the spread of coronavirus in the U.S. than say it is so contagious that nothing could have prevented it spreading the way it has. Some 30% of Republicans join 73% of Democrats in saying the government could have made a difference had it acted faster.”
John Hayward
@Doc_0
The public's big gripe with Trump is that he was too slow to ignore the media, the Chinese Communist Party, and the World Health Organization and impose those life-saving travel bans over their objections.
and that the federal government should have replaced inventory such as masks from its emergency stockpile.
Nice "headline" Goddard, no bias at political_lire blog (sarc/off) which takes biased sources and adds more bias. And is reflective of tanking opinions of the media, especially when many people are seeing directly from the president and taskforce.
A POS waterboy "pastor's" job must be very tiring spreading such propaganda.
James has Zero Original Thoughts.
He is even π and Stealing Thoughts of Of all people lowest of IS James.
96. % of China Flu cases are in .CA , Chicago and New York.
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