So I have been tracking the CDC, Worldometer, and the Covid Tracking Project numbers on the sidebar. But earlier this week I decided to include my own projections for how many people will pass from Covid-19 (at least through this particular season).
Right now, my tracking shows that 77,197 will die, which will fluctuate from day to day. This is based on some fairly simple spreadsheet analysis that I have been tracking since the beginning of this. In simple terms, I am using the average of the daily numbers provided by the three tracking sites, and comparing them against the average projections from the original models that showed the death toll between 90,000-110,000.
Rather than adjust the model as we go on (which is fairly complicated and has not proven to be all that reliable), I am still tracking this as if the curve will run well into June, as it was originally projected. The main reason for this is the reality that the original models (as counterintuitive as it seems) appear to have been more reliable in many ways than the new models (which also seem to be overreacting to the day to day statistical changes).
While the daily numbers have been fairly consistently under the numbers originally projected, the actual outline of the curve seems to be more in line with the original models (which have a longer plateau and extend out longer) than the newer models (which have a steeper climb and steeper decline). Therefore it makes sense to use these original models as the baseline for how it is tracking with the current data. I would rather use an accurate curve that over or under projects the numbers, than a model that misses on the curve.
So how does my number compare? Well, the most current Covid Model (that most people are using) started at around 80,000, before plummeting down to 61,000. However, recently it has gone up multiple times and has settled in around 72,000. So my numbers are a little higher than what the people at the CDC or the task force might be thinking.
Unfortunately if I had to put a bet on the over/under using either 72,000 or 77,000 at this point, I am pretty sure I would bet over. It doesn't "feel" right to me that these numbers are going to drop as fast as these models are projecting. The death toll just remain stubbornly high on the east coast, and it feels like we are at least a week (rather than a day or two) away from this really drastically coming down.
30 comments:
Your numbers suck and your ghoulish obsession with total deaths and supporting trump is not healthy for anyone!!!!!!!!!!
We are getting more and more disturbing reports of hospitals and state public health official artificial inflating COVID-19 deaths and hospitalizations, even coding patients a COVID-19 patients when they test negative.
Many because of the payment incentive but also to justify some state and local official's more draconian lock down orders.
Your numbers suck
So Denny, those numbers come directly from the CDC and other sources. How exactly can you justify that they suck?
Go on, we'll wait.
How exactly can you justify that they suck?
Because they do especially with Jared saying they are a great win....60k dead us a resounding success for the trump daughter fucker!!!!!! BWAAAAAAAA!!! And why do you think they are good??????? Inflating deaths based on what your stupidity??????
patients a COVID-19 patients when they test negative
Sure cramps.....that's exactly what is going on in your sick head!!!!!!!! Just like you busch gdp growth in his last quarter.....BWAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!
Just a few weeks ago, experts were projecting 1M. 60k is a big win instead of millions. We don't call you dopey for nothing.
We really need to give these old codgers with medical issues some slack, this is fat so’s lone source of anything to do.
Just a few weeks ago, experts were projecting 1M.
What experts said that you dumb fuck......my recollection was 100 - 300 I won't hold my breath expecting a cogent response from another dumb fuck trumpist.....
some slack, this is fat so’s lone source of anything to do.
Hitting the vodka after bowling today asshole????? BWAAAAAAAA!!!!!! God you are a fucking idiot!!!!
What experts said that you dumb fuck..
This is the expert model it came from:
The Imperial College, whose model projected a few million deaths in the U.S. in a worst-case scenario
Since you're so fond of scientific models running your life, I thought you would be amused. I'm certainly amused.
Roger, James and FBGD.
So wrong. They said WI. voting would be deadly.
"Wisconsin: 52 of 400,000 In-Person Primary Voters Diagnosed with Coronavirus, No Fatalities"
The Imperial College, whose model projected a
BWAAAAAAAA!!!! The singular model from the UK!!!!!. Yep, there was 1 which got very little coverage, so you win but ignore the fact that the US were much lower.........funny how you now expound models while GW are all hoaxes and wrong.....BWAAAAAAAAA!!!!!! Thanx again for your hard work which the ball less wonder was too lazy to find.......feel better now that 60k and counting have died??????
WHO announced that the Swedish Model is the recommended Model😆
https://nypost.com/2020/04/28/jesse-ventura-weighing-presidential-run-on-green-party-ticket/
Jesse Ventura weighing presidential run on Green Party ticket
Please please, the debates would be AWESOME.
The cleaning of the files on Biden.
"Biden campaign officials "rifled through" the documents on "at least one occasion," Business Insider reported, citing a statement from University spokeswoman Andrea Boyle Tippett. The campaign's visit to the library came some point after Biden announced his presidential campaign in April 2019 -- but before "mid-March" 2020, when the library closed due to the coronavirus. No one from the Biden team has visited since the closure, Tippett claimed."
The cleaning of the files on Biden.
"Biden campaign officials "rifled through"
BWAAAAAAAAA!!!!!! Of course they did you goat fucking idiot.....And the chinese created the virus in a lab to help their economy too!!!!!!! The world according to Trump!!!!! LOLOLOLOLOLOL
62 k dead.....1.1 million infected, gdp in negative territory.....30 million out of work.....and Jared the daughter fucker calls this a success!!!!! The right takes another swig and swallows!!!!! Great job Trump!!!!!!
What will the Biden/Tank team do?
The US intelligence community confirmed that the China Virus is manmade, that the "Bat Soup" and "Wet Market" story was China Propaganda.
Buck Sexton
@BuckSexton
Imagine for a moment that the Bush-appointed FBI director sent a couple of agents to ambush incoming National Security Advisor Susan Rice on a completely bull**** pretext during the transition so they could get her fired and sent to prison
Libs would have rioted in the streets
12:03 AM · Apr 30, 2020·Twitter for iPhone
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https://twitter.com/BuckSexton/status/1255709248299905035
Wow, it sure looks like the Obama FBI cabal was out to destroy general Flynn.
Add to that their fisa court criminality. This is historic. There's a group of them that should go to prison.
the flynn travesty makes watergate look like a jaywalking ticket.
my prediction - no one will be punished and no one goes to jail.
Creepy Joe.
"While the details of these allegations of sexual harassment and sexual assault are complicated, two things are not complicated. One is that women deserve to be treated with dignity and respect, and when they step forward they should be heard, not silenced. The second is that their stories should be subject to appropriate inquiry and scrutiny."
So open your files.
"my prediction - no one will be punished and no one goes to jail." RRB
💯 agree.
So open your files.
He requested the senate to release all his papers.....what did trump release????? BWAAAAAAAAA!!!!!
the flynn travesty makes watergate look like a jaywalking ticket.
Flynn lied and pleaded guilty.....wow.....he shouldn't have lied!!!!!
rrb said...
the flynn travesty makes watergate look like a jaywalking ticket.
my prediction - no one will be punished and no one goes to jail.
It's impossible to even get a fair jury in DC anymore. Look at what happened to Stone with his "resistance" jury foreman. Imagine trying to find a jury that could impartially come to a unanimous verdict against one of their "heroes"
And while Watergate received constant spotlight coverage this much greater scandal receives almost none. Imagine if Nixon had done what the Obama "justice" department has done. Hopefully Durham can make such a complete case and be able to present it in such a way that anyone can understand, that it will get some traction. That is if big tech doesn't rule it "misinformation" and silence anyone mentioning.
Maybe China, not the debunked Putin, is the foreign government who has something on a major political party. The dems, big tech and the msm all sure appear to bow down to them. Maybe the morning DNC "talking points" are now in Chinese, it sure is hard to tell any difference.
More bullshit the dumbest fuck of kansas will accept without question while questioning everything biden offered with his stupid release the files.....the files in delaware are out of his hands and released!!!!!!! The truth will set him free!!!!
Experts shoot down Trump's claim that the U.S. has reason to believe the coronavirus originated in a Wuhan lab
Business Insider
ASHLEY COLLMAN
May 1st 2020 8:57AM
President Donald Trump on Thursday said he had seen evidence that shows the coronavirus originated in a Chinese lab, but US intelligence sources and disease experts seem to be contradicting this claim.
At Thursday's White House daily coronavirus press briefing, Trump said US authorities were looking into the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which has previously conducted extensive research on coronaviruses that originate in bats.
When a reporter asked him if he had seen "anything that gives you a high degree of confidence" that the coronavirus originated in this lab, Trump said: "Yes I have," but added he's "not allowed to tell" anyone about the intelligence.
Hours later, The Washington Post published a report that told a very different.
American disease researchers and intelligence officials who spoke to the newspaper said that while a lab accident is a possible scenario, there's no evidence pointing in that direction.
One intelligence official, who spoke to the newspaper under the condition of anonymity, said policymakers have been told in private briefings that China may have downplayed the outbreak in its early days, but there's no evidence that the virus was the result of an accidental transmission at a Wuhan lab.
No one with an ounce of iq accepts the Washington Post and it's anonymous sources and anonymous "experts". It is the definition of FAKE NEWS
Imagine if Nixon had done what the Obama "justice" department has done.
you don't even need to imagine that much.
simply imagine if nixon was a democrat and his henchmen broke into RNC HQ.
nixon finishes his second term and is heralded as a statesman of our time.
simply imagine if nixon was a democrat and his henchmen broke into RNC HQ.
BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!! That's like imagining you had a fucking brain that worked!!!!!!!!!
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